Buzz concerned we did not play tOSU, is he right?

[Tugg Speedman]

In the video interviewing Buzz at the Al last night (when they returned home from St. John's). He said we were RPI 15 and SoS 14.  Had we played tOSU on the aircraft carrier, WIN OR LOSE, both our RPI and SoS would be higher today.  He then said he hoped a wet floor would not cost us a seed in the tourney.

Is his concern valid?  Thoughts?

[MUMonster03]

In the video interviewing Buzz at the Al last night (when they returned home from St. John's). He said we were RPI 15 and SoS 14.  Had we played tOSU on the aircraft carrier, WIN OR LOSE, both our RPI and SoS would be higher today.  He then said he hoped a wet floor would not cost us a seed in the tourney.

Is his concern valid?  Thoughts?

I think it is, wig that game we are probably looking at a 3 seed without having to make it deep in the tournament next week. I think, even after yesterday, we need to at least make it to the semi if not the final to make it to the 3 line, a tournament championship should get us to a 2.

[warriorfred]

Yes.  Despite the committee's protestations to the contrary, RPI is a big factor in their seeding.  If MU has a RPI of 15, it would be unreasonable to expect anything better than a 4 seed.  Most likely MU would be a 5 seed.

Argue away . . .

[ShannonSmith]

how much would have our rpi gone up if we lost? maybe from 15 to 14? I think it should be looked at as both schools scheduled strong and should be rewarded for helping the greater good of college hoops.

[Chicos' Buzz Scandal Countdown]

As of this morning our RPI is 10

[tower912]

MU's RPI and SOS are strong.   Win a couple of games this week and take a backseat to very few.   If MU wins the tOSU game, it would have raised their national profile a little sooner and offset the negative effects of the GB loss.    But, MU doesn't need to apologize to anyone for their record. 

[RushmoreAcademy]

I think he's right, and his frustration is that of a passionate and amazing coach.  
However, I'm not sure I agree with that view.  I just think that each win or loss changes the outlook on the next game and no matter what would have happened against OSU, the rest of the season would very well have played out differently. He talked about how crazy the season was, and sometimes very good teams like this need each of the things to break that way to get to the place they do.
 That's probably overanalyzing and they would like like to have the OSU game back though...

[brewcity77]

Most years I would be more concerned. But this year, is there any difference between being a 3 (playing a 2 to get to the Elite 8) or a 4 (playing a 1)? Honestly, some of the potential 1-seeds are more desirable opponents. I'd love to get a shot at Miami or Gonzaga.

[4everwarriors]

Miami won't be a 1 seed

[DiaperDandy]

Dick Vitale said last night during the Duke-North Carolina game that it is time to start considering the Warriors (his exact words) as a possible number one seed should they win the Big East Tournament.  I could not believe my ears when I heard that and thought it quite comical.  I honestly think a two seed is our ceiling this year.  If we win our first game in the Big East tourney, we could climb up to a three seed.

[Norm]

I'd love to get a shot at Miami or Gonzaga.

Why would you want to play Miami? Shane Larkin will destroy Cadougan and their inside game will give us fits. That is one team I hope we don't have to see in the tournament.

[Eldon]

Maybe we meet up with THE Ohio State University in the tourney.

[MU82]

And maybe if we play on the U.S.S. Slippery, Vander blows out his knee and we are a bubble team at best.

I understand Buzz's frustration, but the what-if game never plays too well.

And FWIW, the 4 RPI standings I looked at this morning have us either higher than or roughly equal to Gonzaga.

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

Buzz's teams always play best with the "us against the world" & "no one thinks you belong"  mindset.  Maybe some motivation for the tean right around tourney time?

[LloydMooresLegs]

Dick Vitale said last night during the Duke-North Carolina game that it is time to start considering the Warriors (his exact words) as a possible number one seed should they win the Big East Tournament.  I could not believe my ears when I heard that and thought it quite comical.  I honestly think a two seed is our ceiling this year.  If we win our first game in the Big East tourney, we could climb up to a three seed.

Confirmation that MU cannot possibly be a no. 1 seed.  

[RJax55]

Why would you want to play Miami? Shane Larkin will destroy Cadougan and their inside game will give us fits. That is one team I hope we don't have to see in the tournament.

Because Miami peaked back in late January.

[setyoursightsnorth]

Why would you want to play Miami? Shane Larkin will destroy Cadougan and their inside game will give us fits. That is one team I hope we don't have to see in the tournament.

Every single team is vulnerable. Kansas is beatable. Indiana is as well. Zags are. The only number one seed I'm petrified of is Duke.

[The Equalizer]

We would not have improved our RPI if we had lost to Ohio State.  We wouldn't have declined much, but it would not have helped us to lose.

I did a quick analysis--the numbers will be slightly off because I didn't factor the slight change in our opponents' opponents

Our current RPI is .6373, which according to realtime RPI is 11th place.

That's based on:
25% on our weigthed W/L percentage (.8017)  (calculated using .6/1.4 for home/road wins & losses)
50% on our oppontnts average W/L percentage (.5843) (averaged the W/L for our 30 opponents
25% on our opponents opponents average W/L (.6373) (extrapolated using 25/50/25 based on the other 2 numbers)


If we Beat OSU
Our W/L % improves to .8099 and our opponents opponent w/l improves to .5891
Plugging in .6373 for factor 3, our new RPI would be .6417, good enough to pull us up to to 9th.

If we lose,
Our W/L % declines to .7686 and our opponents oponents w/l improves to .5902
Pugging in .6373, our new RPI would be .6319, dropping us to 13th--possibly 14th because if Ohio State beat us, they would improved from their current 16th place.  I'm not going to run the analysis on them, but its possible that they pass us to take 13th place, dropping us to 14th. 

[NavinRJohnson]

And maybe if we play on the U.S.S. Slippery, Vander blows out his knee and we are a bubble team at best.

I understand Buzz's frustration, but the what-if game never plays too well.

And FWIW, the 4 RPI standings I looked at this morning have us either higher than or roughly equal to Gonzaga.

He's not just expressing frustration, this is their campaign to the committee.  Would be very surprised if you don't hear this out of Buzz or others again in the coming days. The committee talks about whom you schedule (particularly as it relates to bubble teams) and Buzz kows it. They out together a damn good OOC schedule, and they deserve to be rewarded with a seed for doing so.

[HoopsMalone]

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology/team-comparison/MARQET/OHIOST


When you look at both tOSU and MU's resumes, what stands out it non-conference RPI/SOS.  Missing that game is likely hurting both team's resumes. 

[Tugg Speedman]

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology/team-comparison/MARQET/OHIOST
When you look at both tOSU and MU's resumes, what stands out it non-conference RPI/SOS.  Missing that game is likely hurting both team's resumes. 

I thought this ... if Buzz thinks not playing tOSU could cost us a seed, could you not say the same for tOSU.  It cannot cost both of a seed.  One game not played cannot be that important to both teams.

In reality, it hurt one of us because one of us would have one more win against a top 15 team.  For the loser it would not have mattered.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Confirmation that MU cannot possibly be a no. 1 seed.  

LOL.  Exactly. 

[ChicosBailBonds]

Every single team is vulnerable. Kansas is beatable. Indiana is as well. Zags are. The only number one seed I'm petrified of is Duke.

Yup.  Said it last month, they are the team to beat.  Especially with Kelly back.  They are the best team in the country, hands down.  Still beatable, everyone is, but they are the team to beat.

[Pakuni]

Why would you want to play Miami? Shane Larkin will destroy Cadougan and their inside game will give us fits. That is one team I hope we don't have to see in the tournament.

In the last two weeks, Miami has lost at Wake Forest (RPI 169) and at home to Georgia Tech (RPI 132). They're eminently beatable. That doesn't MU will beat them, but there are several other teams I'd rather not see before Miami's name pops up.

[ChicosBailBonds]

As of this morning our RPI is 10

Actually a 12, right behind #1 seed Gonzaga who is an 11

http://www.rpiforecast.com/live-rpi.html

[Jay Bee]

Actually a 12, right behind #1 seed Gonzaga who is an 11

http://www.rpiforecast.com/live-rpi.html

Except for when the NCAA publishes their RPI, isn't it true that we don't know what the "real" RPI calculation is - the real one includes undisclosed adjustments. I think when people (and various websites) talk about the RPI during the season they're estimating.

[NavinRJohnson]

I thought this ... if Buzz thinks not playing tOSU could cost us a seed, could you not say the same for tOSU.  It cannot cost both of a seed.  One game not played cannot be that important to both teams.

He doesn't care about OSU, he cares about MU, and if he can plant this seed with the committee to try to make this part fo the conversation when their seed is discussed,why not? That's all he's doing. If they are on the fence between one number or another, and this helps push them up a line, vs. being pushed down a line, a little politicking will have paid off.

[Golden Avalanche]

Because Miami peaked back in late January.

Hard to say the outright ACC Champions peaked six weeks ago.

[The Equalizer]

Except for when the NCAA publishes their RPI, isn't it true that we don't know what the "real" RPI calculation is - the real one includes undisclosed adjustments. I think when people (and various websites) talk about the RPI during the season they're estimating.

The NCAA stopped making such adjustments:
http://www.collegerpi.com/rpifaq.html#Secret

He doesn't care about OSU, he cares about MU, and if he can plant this seed with the committee to try to make this part fo the conversation when their seed is discussed,why not? That's all he's doing. If they are on the fence between one number or another, and this helps push them up a line, vs. being pushed down a line, a little politicking will have paid off.

If this was the motivation, its just as likely to backfire. The same argument could be made for Ohio State. Then the committee compares the body of work:

--OSU played Duke (#1 rpi) and UL (#3 rpi) competitively in non-con for two losses
--MU was blown out by Florida (#6 rpi), lost to UWGB (#163 rpi), and got beat at the buzzer by Butler (#21 rpi) for three losses.

The assumpion will be that Ohio State probably would have won the game.

[Jay Bee]

Why is it that different sites have different RPI's? Bad data (neutral games vs. home or road?)... unknown calculations (specific treatment OWP, etc?)... both.. or others?

I guess the point is that the RPI that goes to the selection committee is probably* the one that gets looked at most by committee members... and therefore if one non-NCAA source says one thing that's slightly different than another non-NCAA source, both of them may be different than the "real" RPI. Yes?

[MU82]

He's not just expressing frustration, this is their campaign to the committee.  Would be very surprised if you don't hear this out of Buzz or others again in the coming days. The committee talks about whom you schedule (particularly as it relates to bubble teams) and Buzz kows it. They out together a damn good OOC schedule, and they deserve to be rewarded with a seed for doing so.

Fair point.

[Dawson Rental]

In the video interviewing Buzz at the Al last night (when they returned home from St. John's). He said we were RPI 15 and SoS 14.  Had we played tOSU on the aircraft carrier, WIN OR LOSE, both our RPI and SoS would be higher today.  He then said he hoped a wet floor would not cost us a seed in the tourney.

Is his concern valid?  Thoughts?

He's just being politically correct.  The real reason we go down a level in seeding is that during the delay the whole country saw that our AD is a hick who wears sweat stained caps.

[Dr. Blackheart]

The NCAA now has been publishing their own this season.  MU was a #12 on March 4, and a number of schools ahead had losses since.

http://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-men/d1/ncaa_mens_basketball_rpi

[LloydMooresLegs]

The NCAA now has been publishing their own this season.  MU was a #12 on March 4, and a number of schools ahead had losses since.

http://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-men/d1/ncaa_mens_basketball_rpi

Note that New Orleans is 346 out of 347.  Good move Buzz 

[Chicos' Buzz Scandal Countdown]

Actually a 12, right behind #1 seed Gonzaga who is an 11

http://www.rpiforecast.com/live-rpi.html

someone should tell ESPN http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/rpi/_/teamId/269

Never heard of rpiforecast

[NavinRJohnson]

If this was the motivation, its just as likely to backfire. The same argument could be made for Ohio State. Then the committee compares the body of work:

--OSU played Duke (#1 rpi) and UL (#3 rpi) competitively in non-con for two losses
--MU was blown out by Florida (#6 rpi), lost to UWGB (#163 rpi), and got beat at the buzzer by Butler (#21 rpi) for three losses.

The assumpion will be that Ohio State probably would have won the game.

You are completely missing the point. It's not about the committee guessing who would have won, or comparing the two head to head. They aren't going to do that. It's about Buzz positioning MU's SOS and subsequent RPI. MU played, a challenging schedule, and scheduled an even tougher one. He wants the committee to keep that in mind when figuring our where to seed them.

[The Equalizer]

someone should tell ESPN http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/rpi/_/teamId/269

Never heard of rpiforecast

Why is it that different sites have different RPI's? Bad data (neutral games vs. home or road?)... unknown calculations (specific treatment OWP, etc?)... both.. or others?

I guess the point is that the RPI that goes to the selection committee is probably* the one that gets looked at most by committee members... and therefore if one non-NCAA source says one thing that's slightly different than another non-NCAA source, both of them may be different than the "real" RPI. Yes?

The small reported differences are based on when the RPI was calculated by the different services.  RealtimeRPI.com ran theirs at 9:50 this morning.  RPIForecast about five minutes ago.  ESPN runs a daily report and doesn't time-stamp it. 

But we can tell whether ESPN includes late games simply by looking at their report.  They show Gonzaga at 29-2 in the RPI report.  But following their late win over LMU, they were 30-2. So obviously, ESPN doesn't currently show the most recent nubmers.  We fell behind Gonzaga in the RPI because Gonzaga won another game.



 

[CTWarrior]

Buzz says this stuff for the same reason that Mike Brey says Marquette is the most difficult place to play and repeatedly mentioned they were playing shorthanded with Cooley sick after our game with them.  Self-serving rhetoric designed to make poll voters and tournament seeders think better of their teams.  Nothing wrong with it.  The reason that we think Buzz is right in what he says is because we love MU and we think Brey is a jerk for what he said is because we hate ND.  I think right now we are on the edge of the 3/4 line and Buzz wants any information possible out there that would push us up to the 3 line (or better, depending on the BET showing).

Personally, I like my coach saying all the boring platitudes and just worrying about the next game and not putting thought in about such things, but Buzz can compartmentalize and find time for everything with the best of them.

[The Equalizer]

Buzz says this stuff for the same reason that Mike Brey says Marquette is the most difficult place to play and repeatedly mentioned they were playing shorthanded with Cooley sick after our game with them.  Self-serving rhetoric designed to make poll voters and tournament seeders think better of their teams.  Nothing wrong with it.  The reason that we think Buzz is right in what he says is because we love MU and we think Brey is a jerk for what he said is because we hate ND.  I think right now we are on the edge of the 3/4 line and Buzz wants any information possible out there that would push us up to the 3 line (or better, depending on the BET showing).

My point is that Buzz shouldn't have called attention to a cancelled game against one of the small handful of teams that we're in direct competition for that same seed-line. 
http://bracketproject.50webs.com/matrix.htm

It might be different if we were on the edge of the 7/8 line and missed a game against Duke.   

But as it stands right now, there's a reasonable chance that the committee will wind up trying to decide between MU and Ohio State for that last spot on the 3-seed line. 

If that were to happen, do you really want to get the committee thinking about that particular game and what might have been?   

[Pakuni]

1. I'd be extremely surprised if committee members are paying much attention to (or are even aware of) what Buzz Williams said to some Milwaukee TV and radio stations about a game that wasn't played. The commissioner of the Big Sky and AD at Utah State probably don't get the WISN feed.

2. I'd be even more surprised if committee members would use the ol' "who would win an imaginary game on a boat in early November" as a factor to determine seeding.

[Lennys Tap]

1. I'd be extremely surprised if committee members are paying much attention to (or are even aware of) what Buzz Williams said to some Milwaukee TV and radio stations about a game that wasn't played. The commissioner of the Big Sky and AD at Utah State probably don't get the WISN feed.

2. I'd be even more surprised if committee members would use the ol' "who would win an imaginary game on a boat in early November" as a factor to determine seeding.

This

[NavinRJohnson]

1. I'd be extremely surprised if committee members are paying much attention to (or are even aware of) what Buzz Williams said to some Milwaukee TV and radio stations about a game that wasn't played. The commissioner of the Big Sky and AD at Utah State probably don't get the WISN feed.

Just don't  be surprised if you hear it again, and not necessarily directly from Buzz.

[ChicosBailBonds]

someone should tell ESPN http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/rpi/_/teamId/269

Never heard of rpiforecast

ESPN doesn't update theirs but once a day. 

[Lennys Tap]

someone should tell ESPN http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/rpi/_/teamId/269

Never heard of rpiforecast

Don't you remember Chicos giving us the valuable (and prescient) info that rpiforcast had us finishing the season with an RPI of 60 (or so) and I think a conference record of 9-9? He was positively giddy.

[The Equalizer]

Just don't  be surprised if you hear it again, and not necessarily directly from Buzz.

If Buzz is smart, he'd keep quiet about it and hope we don't hear it again.  The comparison doesn't favor MU. Better to rest on the current body of work.

[Tugg Speedman]

Just don't  be surprised if you hear it again, and not necessarily directly from Buzz.

... cue Mr. Hunt ....
http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/sports/196789301.html

You're right, Saturday night in the AL was only the FIRST mention of this.  You will hear it over and over in NYC during the tourney.  A campaign to get this idea out their has begun.

The only question ... is Thad Motta smart enough to jump on it too?

[Benny B]

The NCAA stopped making such adjustments:
http://www.collegerpi.com/rpifaq.html#Secret


If this was the motivation, its just as likely to backfire. The same argument could be made for Ohio State. Then the committee compares the body of work:

--OSU played Duke (#1 rpi) and UL (#3 rpi) competitively in non-con for two losses
--MU was blown out by Florida (#6 rpi), lost to UWGB (#163 rpi), and got beat at the buzzer by Butler (#21 rpi) for three losses.

The assumpion will be that Ohio State probably would have won the game.

Perhaps OSU would have won, but does that really matter now?  Remember that:

1) The committee doesn't care what might have happened then, it cares about what will happen 10 days from now.
2) MU was without a key player during all of those losses you mentioned.  The committee will give extra weight to the post-UWGB schedule.

There's no question that playing OSU would have potentially been beneficial to MU's RPI and SOS, particularly if MU won the game.  But the committee is not going to run a simulation to determine which team might have won for purposes of a head-to-head discussion of the two teams in committee (i.e. who should be seeded higher).

[ZiggysFryBoy]

Have Big Sheesh and some dude from OSU determine the outcome on 2K8, updated with current teams.  Send results to committee.

[brewcity77]

Remember that the committee in recent years has placed great weight on who you schedule. It's not just winning or losing those games, it's that you play them. That's what kept Seth Greenburg on the wrong side of the bubble so many times. The card Buzz is playing is the "we tried to play the toughest schedule possible" card. You schedule 3 perennial conference title contenders (UF, UW, tOSU) and play the non-con tourney with the most history and you should be rewarded for that. Buzz doesn't want Mike Broeker's work to go unnoticed.

[Pakuni]

Perhaps OSU would have won, but does that really matter now?  Remember that:

1) The committee doesn't care what might have happened then, it cares about what will happen 10 days from now.
2) MU was without a key player during all of those losses you mentioned.  The committee will give extra weight to the post-UWGB schedule.

There's no question that playing OSU would have potentially been beneficial to MU's RPI and SOS, particularly if MU won the game.  But the committee is not going to run a simulation to determine which team might have won for purposes of a head-to-head discussion of the two teams in committee (i.e. who should be seeded higher).

Exactly. The committee has many real-life factors to weigh when it comes to determining seeds. They aren't going to factor the make believe results of an imaginary game into the equation.

[Canned Goods n Ammo]

2) MU was without a key player during all of those losses you mentioned.  The committee will give extra weight to the post-UWGB schedule.

I don't think they factor in streaky reserve players.

[Benny B]

I don't think they factor in streaky reserve players.

To the extent that a "streaky reserve" player has a meaningful impact on the team's play and performance, the committee will take that into consideration.  Is that alone going to turn MU from a hypothetical 4-seed into a 2-seed ?  Is Mayo the difference between MU being a national contender and NIT-bound? Of course not.  But he could be just enough of an impact to bump MU up the s-curve a single line, and if you're already sitting at #9 or #13, that makes a difference on where you're seeded and, perhaps, where you play.

That said, maybe it's just my opinion, but I think MU is a better team with Mayo; if I am representing MU in committee, I'm absolutely going to point this out regardless.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Don't you remember Chicos giving us the valuable (and prescient) info that rpiforcast had us finishing the season with an RPI of 60 (or so) and I think a conference record of 9-9? He was positively giddy.

Actually, I was positively concerned and not giddy at all, but you're on a roll the last few days with your lying again so keep it going.

Also, that was in December, and as more games are played, the more data that comes in.  If you win games you are not predicted to do so, your outlook improves, that's why it is called a forecast.  If I believe Q1 will generate $6 billion but it comes in at $7 billion, guess what...my year forecast is likely to improve.  No different.

Keep them coming...giddy..yeah...maybe you out to re-read what I actually said.   

[tower912]

I don't think they factor in streaky reserve players.

Agreed that Mayo is a streaky reserve player.   They are 16-4 with him, 7-3 without him.    Now, that better record can be attributed to the team coming together, to STjr's continued improvement, Jamil stepping up, CO getting healthier.....lots of things.      MU has lots of positives for the committee to consider.    Last 12, RPI, SOS....MU's resume is very good.     And though MU's record with Mayo is better than without, I doubt that the committee will see his presence as the causality. 

[Canned Goods n Ammo]

To the extent that a "streaky reserve" player has a meaningful impact on the team's play and performance, the committee will take that into consideration.  Is that alone going to turn MU from a hypothetical 4-seed into a 2-seed ?  Is Mayo the difference between MU being a national contender and NIT-bound? Of course not.  But he could be just enough of an impact to bump MU up the s-curve a single line, and if you're already sitting at #9 or #13, that makes a difference on where you're seeded and, perhaps, where you play.

That said, maybe it's just my opinion, but I think MU is a better team with Mayo; if I am representing MU in committee, I'm absolutely going to point this out regardless.

I guess I just disagree. I don't think the committee knows these teams intimately enough to look at the roster and be impressed with Todd's stats.

I imagine they go through the normal criteria and add in any special circumstances. I don't see how a 6pt. 1reb. per game player would count as a "special circumstance".

To put it another way, if Todd suddenly can't play the rest of the year, do you think that moves them down a seed? I don't.

[The Equalizer]

Perhaps OSU would have won, but does that really matter now?  Remember that:

1) The committee doesn't care what might have happened then, it cares about what will happen 10 days from now.

Wrong.  The committe doesn't care at all what will happen 10 days from now.  100% of their attention is on what has occurred from November 11th through 7 days from now. 

There's no question that playing OSU would have potentially been beneficial to MU's RPI and SOS, particularly if MU won the game. 

Again, wrong.  Sorry, but I ran the numbers.  The game helps our RPI only if we won.  It hurts us if we lost.

But the committee is not going to run a simulation to determine which team might have won for purposes of a head-to-head discussion of the two teams in committee (i.e. who should be seeded higher).

They may not run a simulation, but if someone starts the discussion claming one of the teams should get special seeding consideration because this game was scheduled, the committee will have to find some way to decide which of the two teams should get that consideration. 

[Pakuni]

Wrong.  The committe doesn't care at all what will happen 10 days from now.  100% of their attention is on what has occurred from November 11th through 7 days from now.  

You know what didn't occur from November 11 through 7 days from now?
A game between Marquette and Ohio State.
They are not going to decide seeding based on something that didn't happen.

[The Equalizer]

You know what didn't occur from November 11 through 7 days from now?
A game between Marquette and Ohio State.
They are not going to decide seeding based on something that didn't happen.

Probably not.

Which is why its dumb to try to make the case that we deserve special consideration in seeding merely for scheduling the game.

And it doesn't excuse the incorrect comments that the game would have helped our RPI regardless of outcome.

[MU82]

MU was without a key player during all of those losses you mentioned.  The committee will give extra weight to the post-UWGB schedule.

If that proves to be true, Mayo will have been more valuable to us for the games he missed than the games he played!

[Benny B]

Wrong.  The committe doesn't care at all what will happen 10 days from now.  100% of their attention is on what has occurred from November 11th through 7 days from now. 


Again, wrong.  Sorry, but I ran the numbers.  The game helps our RPI only if we won.  It hurts us if we lost.


They may not run a simulation, but if someone starts the discussion claming one of the teams should get special seeding consideration because this game was scheduled, the committee will have to find some way to decide which of the two teams should get that consideration. 

One of the biggest fallacies in the selection process is that it's an ex post-type of process where the committee is rewarding teams for what they've done over the past five months.  The foremost job of the committee is to create a bracket that is competitively balanced... the committee focuses more on what a team is likely to do in the tournament rather than what they did in November.  While teams who have performed well over the course of several months will inevitably be rewarded, this is an effect of the selection process, not the cause.  In other words, if it was all about results and performance, then there is a number of ranking systems and computer models that could come up with a 68-team bracket... but then you'd have a bracket with UNM as a #1.

And you need to doublecheck your RPI math.

[Jay Bee]

And you need to doublecheck your RPI math.

Agreed there are issues with some of his math, but the assertion is true - a Marquette loss to Ohio State would have lowered MU's RPI calculation. The win-loss percentage taking a (25%-weighted) hit of .0083 would sting it badly.

[bilsu]

I remember Thad Matta saying they could reschedule the game and play it a Ohio St. I am not sure he was serious, but if Buzz is going to bemoan not playing the game because it hurt our strength of schedule, then he should of jumped on rescheduling the game at Ohio St.

[Benny B]

Agreed there are issues with some of his math, but the assertion is true - a Marquette loss to Ohio State would have lowered MU's RPI calculation. The win-loss percentage taking a (25%-weighted) hit of .0083 would sting it badly.

In any event, it’s too time consuming – without the right software – to calculate marginal RPI in hypothetical scenarios; however, there's an interesting case I found in three teams with relatively similar RPI/SOS numbers: Kansas, OSU and MU.  Kansas beat OSU on their home court earlier in the year, and according to RPIforecast.com, that win has an impact of +1.15 on KU’s current RPI.  But when you look at the impact on OSU’s RPI, it’s also positive: +0.98.

So OSU loses - at home, no less - to Kansas yet the OWP & OOWP seem to be overcoming the effect of 1.4 losses as the game still has a positive impact on OSU’s RPI.

[The Equalizer]

One of the biggest fallacies in the selection process is that it's an ex post-type of process where the committee is rewarding teams for what they've done over the past five months.  The foremost job of the committee is to create a bracket that is competitively balanced... the committee focuses more on what a team is likely to do in the tournament rather than what they did in November.  While teams who have performed well over the course of several months will inevitably be rewarded, this is an effect of the selection process, not the cause.  In other words, if it was all about results and performance, then there is a number of ranking systems and computer models that could come up with a 68-team bracket... but then you'd have a bracket with UNM as a #1.

And you need to doublecheck your RPI math.

The math isn't wrong--I transcribed the wrong number for the calculated opponents/opponents RPI. 

[Jay Bee]

In any event, it’s too time consuming – without the right software – to calculate marginal RPI in hypothetical scenarios; however, there's an interesting case I found in three teams with relatively similar RPI/SOS numbers: Kansas, OSU and MU.  Kansas beat OSU on their home court earlier in the year, and according to RPIforecast.com, that win has an impact of +1.15 on KU’s current RPI.  But when you look at the impact on OSU’s RPI, it’s also positive: +0.98.

So OSU loses - at home, no less - to Kansas yet the OWP & OOWP seem to be overcoming the effect of 1.4 losses as the game still has a positive impact on OSU’s RPI.

I think you may be confused as to what the different numbers at rpiforecast.com mean.

[The Equalizer]

In any event, it’s too time consuming – without the right software – to calculate marginal RPI in hypothetical scenarios; however, there's an interesting case I found in three teams with relatively similar RPI/SOS numbers: Kansas, OSU and MU.  Kansas beat OSU on their home court earlier in the year, and according to RPIforecast.com, that win has an impact of +1.15 on KU’s current RPI.  But when you look at the impact on OSU’s RPI, it’s also positive: +0.98.

So OSU loses - at home, no less - to Kansas yet the OWP & OOWP seem to be overcoming the effect of 1.4 losses as the game still has a positive impact on OSU’s RPI.

You're misreading the data.  

The +1.15 applies only applies to Factor 2 (Opponents WP) & Factor 3 (Opponents/Opponents WP).  But it doesn't reflect the impact of the outcome of the game!

Again, I'm excluding the opponents' opponents WP--but the other two factors are easy to calculate.

Without the Kansas game, tOSU's opponents average winning percentage was .5690.  
(30 games ranging from .8709 for Duke  to .1923 for Chicago State)

With Kansas, Factor 2 increased to .5780, an increase of .0090.  With a weight of 50%, the RPI due to Factor 2 increased .0045.

Now consider the impact of the loss on Ohio State's own W/L (using the .6/1.4 factors for wins and losses:

Without the Kansas loss, tOSU/s own winning percentage was .8087 (18.6 wins vs. 4.4 losses)
With the loss to Kansas, tOSU/s own winning percentage was .7522 (18.6 wins vs. 5.8 losses)
WIth the loss, the WP decreased by .0465.
Weighted at 25%, the RPI decreased .0116

Now put them together.
--Improvement by playing Kansas:  +.0045
--Decline by losing to Kansas:  (.0116)
--Net change to Ohio State's RPI by playing Kansas and losing:  (.0071)

Ohio State's RPI declined by .0071 relative to the rest of their schecule because they played and lost to Kansas at home.  









 

[Benny B]

I think you may be confused as to what the different numbers at rpiforecast.com mean.

Then please enlighten, because the blog explanation on the site didn't help at all.