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Author Topic: So....What are we ranked on Monday - 10/11/19  (Read 279648 times)

MU82

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Re: So....What are we ranked on Monday - 12/31/18
« Reply #1425 on: December 31, 2018, 03:43:22 PM »
Which poll does everyone think is MOST credible or do you think is the best gauge?

   I think the coaches poll would be the most accurate as these are guys who have a “front row seat” if you will.  Just my opinion however

Most coaches don't bother with the poll. They delegate their "operations manager" or their sports info director to do it for them. A few will do the first and last one of the season but delegate for the rest. For many years, it was derisively called the SID Poll (and maybe it still is).

Polls are fun conversation pieces, but they are so 1985. Computers determine who goes to the NCAA basketball tourney and who plays in the football playoffs.

It's almost quaint to think that until not all that long ago, sportswriters and coaches/SIDs determined the national football champion.
“Were it left to me to decide whether we should have a government without newspapers or newspapers without a government, I should not hesitate a moment to prefer the latter.”

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Herman Cain

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Re: So....What are we ranked on Monday - 12/31/18
« Reply #1426 on: December 31, 2018, 04:17:22 PM »
The poll that ranks MU the highest is the most credible.

Lennys Tap

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Re: So....What are we ranked on Monday - 12/31/18
« Reply #1427 on: December 31, 2018, 04:23:02 PM »
The polls are fun to talk about, and always nice to see one's team in them. But it's not as if they determine anything real, so the "methodology" isn't very important IMHO.

Some science/computer deniers put their faith in the polls. Las Vegas knows better and laughs.

wadesworld

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Re: So....What are we ranked on Monday - 12/31/18
« Reply #1428 on: December 31, 2018, 04:37:53 PM »
Some science/computer deniers put their faith in the polls. Las Vegas knows better and laughs.

Yup. Hawaii. Denver. LSU. The 3 best home court advantages in all of America. Vegas is laughing very hard.

#scientificallyproven #lol

Cheeks

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Re: So....What are we ranked on Monday - 12/31/18
« Reply #1429 on: December 31, 2018, 05:47:35 PM »
MU ranked in the AP poll for the 365th time, good for 20th all time.  Oklahoma has been ranked 366 times, they currently sit at 23rd this week.

But yes, the human polls are ridiculous. The humans cannot remember each game played, or who the opponent's opponent was in other games....the capability isn't there.  They are for discussion only, their value is weak.
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MU82

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Re: So....What are we ranked on Monday - 12/31/18
« Reply #1430 on: December 31, 2018, 06:04:43 PM »
MU ranked in the AP poll for the 365th time, good for 20th all time.  Oklahoma has been ranked 366 times, they currently sit at 23rd this week.

But yes, the human polls are ridiculous. The humans cannot remember each game played, or who the opponent's opponent was in other games....the capability isn't there.  They are for discussion only, their value is weak.

Which is what everybody has been saying.

The value, to me at least, is that our scores are shown more often in the bottom scrolls on ESPN and FS1, newspapers from around the country are more likely to carry little AP blurbs about our games, etc. Every little bit of positive recognition can only help recruiting and foster school pride.

But as far as meaning anything in the grand scheme ... of course not.
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Cheeks

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Re: So....What are we ranked on Monday - 12/31/18
« Reply #1431 on: December 31, 2018, 06:38:49 PM »
Which is what everybody has been saying.

The value, to me at least, is that our scores are shown more often in the bottom scrolls on ESPN and FS1, newspapers from around the country are more likely to carry little AP blurbs about our games, etc. Every little bit of positive recognition can only help recruiting and foster school pride.

But as far as meaning anything in the grand scheme ... of course not.

Not everybody, there are people that think preseason polls matter and polling by humans has actual merit as it pertains to quality of teams.  We agree on what the benefits are, the recognition on the ticker and I'd say social media, pride by fanbases, but that's the limit of it.  Historically fun to look at, but their value in truly gauging how good one team is compared to the next is deeply flawed.  End of the year, sure.  November and December....gobbly gook.
« Last Edit: December 31, 2018, 06:51:16 PM by Cheeks »
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Lennys Tap

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Re: So....What are we ranked on Monday - 12/31/18
« Reply #1432 on: December 31, 2018, 06:41:50 PM »
Yup. Hawaii. Denver. LSU. The 3 best home court advantages in all of America. Vegas is laughing very hard.

#scientificallyproven #lol

You're not the first "smart guy" who thinks his opinions are worth more than the science Vegas uses to set their lines. Those "smart guys" fall into two categories: big shots who just flap their gums and guys who arrive in Vegas in $40,000 cars and leave in $800,000 buses. Hope for your sake you're the former.

Happy New Year!

wadesworld

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Re: So....What are we ranked on Monday - 12/31/18
« Reply #1433 on: December 31, 2018, 06:48:31 PM »
You're not the first "smart guy" who thinks his opinions are worth more than the science Vegas uses to set their lines. Those "smart guys" fall into two categories: big shots who just flap their gums and guys who arrive in Vegas in $40,000 cars and leave in $800,000 buses. Hope for your sake you're the former.

Happy New Year!

And then there’s the third group that buys into Hawaii, Denver, and LSU having the best home court advantage in the country because, well, SCIENCE! Lol.

wadesworld

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Re: So....What are we ranked on Monday - 12/31/18
« Reply #1434 on: December 31, 2018, 06:53:18 PM »
Fivethirtyeight went back and looked at every preseason poll and compared how teams in the NCAA Tournament did against each other who based on number of votes received. So basically if the number 5 preseason team played the team in “others receiving votes” in that season’s NCAA Tournamebt did the number 5 team win? They looked at the last 16 years I believe and the team that had more votes won 72% of the games.

My guess is if you looked at KenPom’s preseason ranking the higher ranked team would win no more than 75%, and honestly I’d bet it’d be lower than 72%.

The preseason rankings aren’t perfect. But they’re actually pretty good. And KenPom isn’t perfect either. Unless you think LSU is impossible to go into and win at.

Cheeks

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Re: So....What are we ranked on Monday - 12/31/18
« Reply #1435 on: December 31, 2018, 07:28:04 PM »
Fivethirtyeight went back and looked at every preseason poll and compared how teams in the NCAA Tournament did against each other who based on number of votes received. So basically if the number 5 preseason team played the team in “others receiving votes” in that season’s NCAA Tournamebt did the number 5 team win? They looked at the last 16 years I believe and the team that had more votes won 72% of the games.

My guess is if you looked at KenPom’s preseason ranking the higher ranked team would win no more than 75%, and honestly I’d bet it’d be lower than 72%.

The preseason rankings aren’t perfect. But they’re actually pretty good. And KenPom isn’t perfect either. Unless you think LSU is impossible to go into and win at.

Yup, the link is earlier in this thread.  But what he is analyzing is how they did in their tournament games as a predictor, what he didn't do (my understanding) is factor in those that didn't make it at all.

For example, last year USC was preseason #10. They didn't make NCAAs.  Minnesota and Northwestern were ranked, they also didn't make the tournament....same is true of Notre Dame, St. Mary's, Baylor.  Would he count those as all losses?  If I am reading his methodology correct, they aren't included or it isn't stated that they are included.  Basically 25% of the preseason top 25 doesn't even make the NCAA tournament where roughly 45+ slots are there for them between at-large and conference auto-bids.  I find that to be a rather large number to be that off by the preseason pollsters.

It doesn't surprise me they do well as a predictor of wins because the top top teams in preseason polls typically don't change much. Those are the layup picks of Duke, Kansas, etc.  They typically go chalk for the first 2 or 3 rounds, which will tally a bunch of wins as a predictor.  Usually one or more of the top five teams makes a deep run to Final Four or beyond, that will also tally up the wins as a predictor. Makes complete sense.

I am with you on Ken Pom, will be interesting to see how it and NCAA's new system do on this, but my thesis is around the quality of the top 25, not whether the top heavy slam dunk teams rack up wins in the NCAA tournament to carry prediction results.
« Last Edit: December 31, 2018, 09:54:01 PM by Cheeks »
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Lennys Tap

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Re: So....What are we ranked on Monday - 12/31/18
« Reply #1436 on: December 31, 2018, 08:47:29 PM »


The preseason rankings aren’t perfect. But they’re actually pretty good. And KenPom isn’t perfect either. Unless you think LSU is impossible to go into and win at.

This will be my last attempt to try to explain this to a dedicated flat earther. Ken Pom has never said that it's impossible to win at LSU, only that based on actual results (rather than an opinion pulled out of one's backside) LSU is 4 points better on their home court than they are on a neutral site. Indiana is 3.6 points better. So that's how much the dumb guys in Vegas adjust the lines. Smart guys like you who know this is BS put the casinos out of business on a regular basis. LOL.

TallTitan34

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Re: So....What are we ranked on Monday - 12/31/18
« Reply #1437 on: December 31, 2018, 08:49:36 PM »
We the diehards who post on a message board know the polls are useless.

But to the casual fan who sees Marquette on the ESPN bottom line or in the Galena Post Gazette sports section they think that team must be pretty good.
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Cheeks

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Re: So....What are we ranked on Monday - 12/31/18
« Reply #1438 on: December 31, 2018, 10:24:02 PM »
This will be my last attempt to try to explain this to a dedicated flat earther. Ken Pom has never said that it's impossible to win at LSU, only that based on actual results (rather than an opinion pulled out of one's backside) LSU is 4 points better on their home court than they are on a neutral site. Indiana is 3.6 points better. So that's how much the dumb guys in Vegas adjust the lines. Smart guys like you who know this is BS put the casinos out of business on a regular basis. LOL.

But you know as well as anyone the oddsmakers set the line to get Equal Betting on the outcomes, that way the oddsmakers make the money.  That doesn’t always mean they are picking the team they think will win, but the bet that drives the action on both sides.

Besides, this entire debate has some major problems. Let’s use Gonzaga as an example. They have an incredible home court advantage, but they don’t play quality competition at their place.  Therefore is it really tougher to win there than IU, KU, MU or elsewhere?  The stats say yes, but that’s based on won loss percentage only.  If the Big Ten was visiting Gonzaga for their home games, I am quite confident their inflated home court advantage would dilute quickly.  Furthermore, a tough place to play doesn’t always mean you come away with a L. 
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MuMark

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Re: So....What are we ranked on Monday - 12/31/18
« Reply #1439 on: December 31, 2018, 10:29:36 PM »
If you are in the polls it typically means you are winning a lot of games..... and at least some of them are typically against good opponents.... .....so as a lagging indicator I'm down with that....

But then again it is where you finish not where you start that matters.......as was shown by the preseason poll last season.......I'm assuming this years preseason poll will have similar outliers.... 

wadesworld

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Re: So....What are we ranked on Monday - 12/31/18
« Reply #1440 on: December 31, 2018, 11:55:00 PM »
This will be my last attempt to try to explain this to a dedicated flat earther. Ken Pom has never said that it's impossible to win at LSU, only that based on actual results (rather than an opinion pulled out of one's backside) LSU is 4 points better on their home court than they are on a neutral site. Indiana is 3.6 points better. So that's how much the dumb guys in Vegas adjust the lines. Smart guys like you who know this is BS put the casinos out of business on a regular basis. LOL.

So you're admitting that you're wrong?  Because I said Assembly Hall is a top 3 difficult place to play in in America.  Which has nothing to do with how many points Las Vegas gives to a team playing in their home arena.  You came up with Hawaii, Denver, and LSU.  I come up with Kansas, Duke, and Indiana.  One is very LOL-ish.  I'll let you decide which it is.

But yes.  Now we're going even more scientific and we're saying Las Vegas odds are the way to determine how good a team is.  This is great stuff Lenny.

1SE

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Re: So....What are we ranked on Monday - 12/31/18
« Reply #1441 on: January 01, 2019, 02:52:32 AM »
Nate Silver made his millions by weighting and aggregating polls and there's a reason for it. It's simple, but different methodologies are going to have different components in the error terms. Human polls will have certain biases, but also pick up on some things the computers don't. I put together a side-by-side of NET, KenPom and Human polls. The variance by team isn't huge.

The average standard deviation in the top 25 is 3.83.

"Noisiest" teams in all four metrics (std dev) are:

Houston (11.87)
Iowa (9.5)
Florida (8)

Marquette is a bit noisier than normal with std dev of it's rankings of 6.22.

Would be interesting to see how this has evolved/evolves over time.

Team   NET   AP   Coach   Kenpom   Mean   Std Dev
Duke   1   1   1   1   1.00   0.00
Michigan   2   2   4   4   3.00   1.15
Virginia   3   4   2   2   2.75   0.96
Houston   4   19   17   33   18.25   11.87
Texas Tech   5   11   11   10   9.25   2.87
Tennessee   6   3   3   11   5.75   3.77
Gonzaga   7   7   8   3   6.25   2.22
NC State   8   18   19   22   16.75   6.08
Michigan St.   9   8   7   5   7.25   1.71
Nevada   10   6   5   8   7.25   2.22
Kentucky   11   13   14   13   12.75   1.26
Nebraska   12   24   23   15   18.50   5.92
Wisconsin   13   22   23   14   18.00   5.23
Marquette   14   16   18   28   19.00   6.22
Kansas   15   5   6   6   8.00   4.69
Virginia Tech   16   10   10   9   11.25   3.20
North Carolina   17   15   15   7   13.50   4.43
Oklahoma   18   23   25   24   22.50   3.11
Mississippi St.   19   17   16   20   18.00   1.83
Indiana   20   21   22   26   22.25   2.63
Ohio St.   21   14   12   25   18.00   6.06
Auburn   22   12   13   12   14.75   4.86
Florida St.   23   9   9   16   14.25   6.70
Buffalo   24   20   20   29   23.25   4.27
Cincinnati   25   31   28   27   27.75   2.50
Louisville   26   36       42   34.67   18.55
LSU   27           40   33.50   20.06
Iowa St.   28   32   31   18   27.25   6.40
Purdue   29   34   35   19   29.25   7.32
TCU   30   30   29   23   28.00   3.37
Villanova   31   28   27   21   26.75   4.19
Kansas St.   32   27   30   35   31.00   3.37
Florida   33   33   33   17   29.00   8.00
Utah St.   34           48   41.00   24.35
Iowa   35   25   20   41   30.25   9.50
St. John's (NY)   36   37   38   51   40.50   7.05
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Heisenberg v2.0

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Re: So....What are we ranked on Monday - 12/31/18
« Reply #1442 on: January 01, 2019, 08:42:43 AM »
Nate Silver made his millions by weighting and aggregating polls and there's a reason for it. It's simple, but different methodologies are going to have different components in the error terms. Human polls will have certain biases, but also pick up on some things the computers don't. I put together a side-by-side of NET, KenPom and Human polls. The variance by team isn't huge.

The average standard deviation in the top 25 is 3.83.

"Noisiest" teams in all four metrics (std dev) are:

Houston (11.87)
Iowa (9.5)
Florida (8)

Marquette is a bit noisier than normal with std dev of it's rankings of 6.22.

Would be interesting to see how this has evolved/evolves over time.

Team   NET   AP   Coach   Kenpom   Mean   Std Dev
Duke   1   1   1   1   1.00   0.00
Michigan   2   2   4   4   3.00   1.15
Virginia   3   4   2   2   2.75   0.96
Houston   4   19   17   33   18.25   11.87
Texas Tech   5   11   11   10   9.25   2.87
Tennessee   6   3   3   11   5.75   3.77
Gonzaga   7   7   8   3   6.25   2.22
NC State   8   18   19   22   16.75   6.08
Michigan St.   9   8   7   5   7.25   1.71
Nevada   10   6   5   8   7.25   2.22
Kentucky   11   13   14   13   12.75   1.26
Nebraska   12   24   23   15   18.50   5.92
Wisconsin   13   22   23   14   18.00   5.23
Marquette   14   16   18   28   19.00   6.22
Kansas   15   5   6   6   8.00   4.69
Virginia Tech   16   10   10   9   11.25   3.20
North Carolina   17   15   15   7   13.50   4.43
Oklahoma   18   23   25   24   22.50   3.11
Mississippi St.   19   17   16   20   18.00   1.83
Indiana   20   21   22   26   22.25   2.63
Ohio St.   21   14   12   25   18.00   6.06
Auburn   22   12   13   12   14.75   4.86
Florida St.   23   9   9   16   14.25   6.70
Buffalo   24   20   20   29   23.25   4.27
Cincinnati   25   31   28   27   27.75   2.50
Louisville   26   36       42   34.67   18.55
LSU   27           40   33.50   20.06
Iowa St.   28   32   31   18   27.25   6.40
Purdue   29   34   35   19   29.25   7.32
TCU   30   30   29   23   28.00   3.37
Villanova   31   28   27   21   26.75   4.19
Kansas St.   32   27   30   35   31.00   3.37
Florida   33   33   33   17   29.00   8.00
Utah St.   34           48   41.00   24.35
Iowa   35   25   20   41   30.25   9.50
St. John's (NY)   36   37   38   51   40.50   7.05

Isn't the problem here what they are trying to measure?

Some of these measures, like NET and partially the polls are giving us a snapshot of "now."  Others like Kenpom and also partially the polls are trying to project where things are going to finish the year. Isn't this why the human pollster various so much?  Some are trying to pick the top 25 teams now while others are trying to "guess" what will be the top 25 teams at the end of the season. (you agree with this?)

So, the question is what are we more interested in?  The top 25 teams today or a guess at the top 25 teams at the end of the season?  Above is a mixture of both.


UWW2MU

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Re: So....What are we ranked on Monday - 12/31/18
« Reply #1443 on: January 01, 2019, 09:02:43 AM »
Isn't the problem here what they are trying to measure?

Some of these measures, like NET and partially the polls are giving us a snapshot of "now."  Others like Kenpom and also partially the polls are trying to project where things are going to finish the year. Isn't this why the human pollster various so much?  Some are trying to pick the top 25 teams now while others are trying to "guess" what will be the top 25 teams at the end of the season. (you agree with this?)

So, the question is what are we more interested in?  The top 25 teams today or a guess at the top 25 teams at the end of the season?  Above is a mixture of both.

This is exactly why they all have value. The AP and coaches should be about performance and who is left standing in the end, while we leave the computer models to be our predictive measurements.  There are plenty of times in sports when the better and more talented teams dont perform as expected.
The human polls should reward outcomes, not talent that hasn't performed.

1SE

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Re: So....What are we ranked on Monday - 12/31/18
« Reply #1444 on: January 01, 2019, 10:57:21 AM »
Just at a quick glance - it looks like the biggest difference are between NET and Kenpom (with Human polls usually splitting the middle).

Will be very interesting to see how NET evolves vis-a-vis both as the season progresses

Interesting interpretation to think of NET as unbiased interpretation of "Now", Kenpom as unbiased interpretation of predicted season performance and Human Polls as a mixture of current results, season expectations, and, probably, what one might call "blue blood"/P6 bias.
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Re: So....What are we ranked on Monday - 12/31/18
« Reply #1445 on: January 01, 2019, 11:32:58 AM »
The NET is more forgiving.   Ken Pom punishes Marquette for a 23 point loss at Indiana but the NET caps the loss at 10.

Also, the 9 point win against UTEP is a big miss in Ken Pom, which projected a 20+ point win.  But a 9 point win is almost the same as a 10 point win on the NET.

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Re: So....What are we ranked on Monday - 12/31/18
« Reply #1446 on: January 01, 2019, 01:02:13 PM »
The NET is more forgiving.   Ken Pom punishes Marquette for a 23 point loss at Indiana but the NET caps the loss at 10.

Also, the 9 point win against UTEP is a big miss in Ken Pom, which projected a 20+ point win.  But a 9 point win is almost the same as a 10 point win on the NET.

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Re: So....What are we ranked on Monday - 12/31/18
« Reply #1447 on: January 01, 2019, 01:40:23 PM »
#FakeNews
#Lies

It doesn't? I was under the impression that it did. Is there a cap with NET? Is it a sliding scale for home/neutral/away?

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Re: So....What are we ranked on Monday - 12/31/18
« Reply #1448 on: January 01, 2019, 01:50:05 PM »
It doesn't? I was under the impression that it did. Is there a cap with NET? Is it a sliding scale for home/neutral/away?

I think what Jay Bee is getting at is that NET measures efficiency no matter what the score. The margin of victory is capped at 10.
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Re: So....What are we ranked on Monday - 12/31/18
« Reply #1449 on: January 01, 2019, 01:54:35 PM »
I think what Jay Bee is getting at is that NET measures efficiency no matter what the score. The margin of victory is capped at 10.

Okay sorry so what was wrong with what Lazar's Headband wrote? Genuinely do not know the nuances with the new NET rating.