MLB playoff thoughts.

[MUMac]

top of the first and i have to write it somewhere. Randy Wolf had better get this wide zone.

I have a feeling someone is going to get tossed.  Most of the series has been a tighter zone.  This zone is far too wide. 

[Spotcheck Billy]

we finally know the reason why wolf struggled so much in his previous start - his jockstrap broke:

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/story/15731852/properly-strapped-in-brewers-wolf-is-one-focused-jock

[GGGG]

So if the Brewers lose tonight, do they dare trot out Marcum on Sunday?  Or do they go Gallardo and Wolf on short rest?

[wadesworld]

So if the Brewers lose tonight, do they dare trot out Marcum on Sunday?  Or do they go Gallardo and Wolf on short rest?

Probably the second option.  If it's not going to be Gallardo and Wolf on short rest, then I would honestly rather give Narveson a chance.  He had good numbers against the Cardinals on the year and looked strong in his one inning of relief work this series (obviously a tiny sample size).  I would be scared to death with Marcum pitching another game.

[MUBurrow]

Probably the second option.  If it's not going to be Gallardo and Wolf on short rest, then I would honestly rather give Narveson a chance.  He had good numbers against the Cardinals on the year and looked strong in his one inning of relief work this series (obviously a tiny sample size).  I would be scared to death with Marcum pitching another game.

I agree on being scared to pitch Marcum, but in an interview Roenicke said that he's very concerned that Narveson isnt stretched out, and its been a while since he's actually started games routinely. So that means that realistically, if Narveson were to start it would more likely be a Narveson/Estrada combo.  I still think I would prefer that to Marcum if we were to lose tonight. If it were just the two playoff games that went bad on Marcum, I'd say trot him out there. But this is becoming a very long trend since the end of the year.

[GGGG]

Can't they just get five innings out of Narveson?  You can thing string together Hawkins, Saito, KRod and Axford to finish the game. 

[Benny B]

So if the Brewers lose tonight, do they dare trot out Marcum on Sunday?  Or do they go Gallardo and Wolf on short rest?

Whoever loses tonight will likely bring back their Game 3 starter on short rest.

Personally, I'm hoping to see Carpenter on Sunday.

[tower912]

I'm happy to get to a game 6 back in Texas, and I think we have better starters going, but the rest of the team looks like a MASH unit.    I hope I am wrong, but I think the ALCS ends Saturday. 

[NavinRJohnson]

If Wolf's outing yesterday did nothing else, it showed me that Sunday may well be Marcum on a very short leash, followed by Johnny Wholestaff if necessary. I see Marcum as a guy very capable of rising to the challenge just as Wolf did last night.

[MUMac]

If Wolf's outing yesterday did nothing else, it showed me that Sunday may well be Marcum on a very short leash, followed by Johnny Wholestaff if necessary. I see Marcum as a guy very capable of rising to the challenge just as Wolf did last night.

The concern I have with Marcum is his arm.  He has thrown more innings this year than any other season.  Over the last few games, he has not had his normal stuff.  I hope he does not have a tired arm, but he shows some signs of it.

[MUMac]

As horrendous as this team is defensively, it may not matter who pitches.  Wow, this is a truly bad defensive team.  8 errors in 10 postseason games and that does not include the inability of Morgan, Hart or Kotsay to make plays they should have, but were not errors.

Grienke pitched well tonight and deserved better than the butchers behind him.

[wadesworld]

As horrendous as this team is defensively, it may not matter who pitches.  Wow, this is a truly bad defensive team.  8 errors in 10 postseason games and that does not include the inability of Morgan, Hart or Kotsay to make plays they should have, but were not errors.

Grienke pitched well tonight and deserved better than the butchers behind him.

I agree with your first point, but not with the bolded parts.  There is absolutely no way you can expect a guy to catch a line drive to the opposite field that hits the top of the wall.  COULD Corey have made that play?  Yes.  SHOULD he have?  Personally I would say definitely not.  That is an extremely difficult play.  Same thing with Morgan in center field.  These are line drive SHOTS that hit towards the top of the wall.  These aren't pop flies that allow time for the fielders to get under them and get a read on where they are heading.  There are VERY few defenders who make those plays, and it takes some luck for even them to do so.

Kotsay obviously should have gotten to that ball.

Is there absolutely any reason that Rickie Weeks is still playing?  I honestly would rather have Craig Counsell at 2B right now.  He's hitting .143 in the post season with 2 walks.  Counsell at least makes the defensive plays he should and can get bunts down (see: Game 5 NLDS).  Or McGehee back at 3rd and Hairston over to 2nd.  Does anybody in the MLB swing and miss at fastballs more than Rickie Weeks?  What doe she bring to the team right now?  I'm dead serious, he's the worst player on the field every night.  I understand he wouldn't be if he hadn't gotten hurt, but...he did.  It's October.  There is no time for him to "work it out."  Feelings don't matter.  Play the guys who will give you the best chance to win.  Rickie does not.

[Benny B]

Rickie is still hurt. It's not easy to dig in the box with a bum ankle... and for a guy who relies on his bat speed for power and average, footing at the plate is everything.  I'm willing to give Weeks a pass, but others certainly aren't pulling their weight and need to play as if their backs are against the wall, primarily because they are.

[wadesworld]

Rickie is still hurt. It's not easy to dig in the box with a bum ankle... and for a guy who relies on his bat speed for power and average, footing at the plate is everything.  I'm willing to give Weeks a pass, but others certainly aren't pulling their weight and need to play as if their backs are against the wall, primarily because they are.

That's my point.  He's still hurt and he's not producing.  He should not be in the lineup.

[MUBurrow]

Not to pile on, but Rickie is also not making plays on defense. He has 2 errors in the past 2 games, and they were both just clearly a matter of not moving his feet. I agree that he should be commended for trying to tough it out, but if it hurts too much to move laterally, you just can't play 2B.  Yesterday it was a matter of not moving to his left and getting his body behind the ball. Today he didnt move enough to his right, just picked at the ball, and was all out of whack and therefore couldn't set and throw - gave Prince next to no chance. I love Rickie, and was very excited about how having him protect Prince would change the dynamic of our team, but pitchers just arent afraid of him enough anymore to do Prince any favors.

Related note: Corey Hart is terrible. He looks like he's been shot in the knees. Maybe todays ball can't really be blamed on him, but there have been a couple of pop fouls that have been playable as well, that he doesn't get to. Disclaimer: I've never liked Corey Hart.

[MUMac]

I agree with your first point, but not with the bolded parts.  There is absolutely no way you can expect a guy to catch a line drive to the opposite field that hits the top of the wall.  COULD Corey have made that play?  Yes.  SHOULD he have?  Personally I would say definitely not.  That is an extremely difficult play.  Same thing with Morgan in center field.  These are line drive SHOTS that hit towards the top of the wall.  These aren't pop flies that allow time for the fielders to get under them and get a read on where they are heading.  There are VERY few defenders who make those plays, and it takes some luck for even them to do so.

Both Morgan and Hart made very poor attempts to make those catches.  Neither one looked like they knew how to leap against the wall.  Morgan's leap - both against the Cardinals and Diamondbacks - looked worse than a beer league softball player.  He lept - in both those cases - far too early, flailing at the ball.  Gomez, IMHO, makes everyone of those plays.  Morgan and Hart are liabilities in the outfield.

It's the NLCS, you make those plays.  The winners do, the losers don't.  You need better fielders in the outfield.

[wadesworld]

Both Morgan and Hart made very poor attempts to make those catches.  Neither one looked like they knew how to leap against the wall.  Morgan's leap - both against the Cardinals and Diamondbacks - looked worse than a beer league softball player.  He lept - in both those cases - far too early, flailing at the ball.  Gomez, IMHO, makes everyone of those plays.  Morgan and Hart are liabilities in the outfield.

It's the NLCS, you make those plays.  The winners do, the losers don't.  You need better fielders in the outfield.

I couldn't disagree more on those specific plays.  I do agree that Gomez has a better chance to make those plays because he is faster (who isn't he faster than, really?), but even that I am not positive he makes the plays on.  That has nothing to do with winners or effort or anything.  When you are sprinting full speed towards the wall while your head is over your shoulder looking back at home plate and you know you're approaching the wall but don't know where the wall is and you have to catch the ball on the run over the shoulder, there is absolutely no way that you can expect that ball to be caught.  And it takes an incredible amount of luck to time a jump right on a line drive over your head.  I think you are downplaying how incredibly difficult an over the shoulder play is.  Again, how often do you see a ball that is hit on a line to the opposite field that **would** (did, in this case) hit off the top of the wall if it were not caught be caught?  I don't ever remember seeing one by anybody.  Same thing to dead center field.  Again, these are lasers, not even between a pop fly and a liner, just a straight liner.  INCREDIBLY difficult play.

Just for comparison's sake, 1 out bottom 6, 1-1 ball game in Game 5 of the NLDS vs. the Diamondbacks, 1st and 2nd and Hairston hits a liner to dead center.  Chris Young made a catch that I think everyone, including Chris Young, thought he had no chance to make.  One of the best catches I have ever seen in the playoffs.  He caught the ball right at the warning track (and MP has a huge warning track).  You put that ball off the top of the wall and he's not even close to catching it.  You just don't make those plays.  Ever.

Hart is awful at defense.  But there is no way I am blaming not making that catch on Hart.  None.  Morgan is a solid defender.  Not spectacular and not a strong arm, but is a good defender.

[GGGG]

Well that idea to start Marcum like nothing happened is really looking like a bright one.

[Blackhat]

McGuire must've been passing out the HGH before this game...holy crap, Cardinals are hitting out of their minds.

[LON]

If he gets another start in this series it will be Jeff Suppan-esque.  He's cooked.

I can't be the only one that thought this, right?

[chapman]

13 of the 26 home losses came in Marcum starts.  Hopefully he gets traded, after three terrible playoff starts only Ron Roenicke wants him back next year.

[Benny B]

You can't discount the fact that the acquisition of Marcum and Greinke were amongst the top reasons the Brewers won the division this year.  Unfortunately, both made significant contributions in the Brewers NLCS demise.  Marcum's horrendous September & October speaks for itself.  Greinke, although effective, didn't fare well relative to his ability and potential in the post-season.  I understand that a lot of people will place the blame on the defense for Game 5 (and rightfully so), but I simply cannot overlook the fact that a guy with 200+ K's on the season failed to strike out a single batter on Friday night.  I give Zack credit insomuch as he didn't have his stuff working but battled as best he could - on a typical night, he would have given enough for a solid defensive team to win - that's what an ace or #2 is supposed to give you.  But even a couple of strikeouts in key situations on Friday would have kept the game out of the defense's hands.

The oft-injured Weeks didn't give the Crew anything in October until it was too late.  Certainly, you can't blame him for his ankle injury, but if anything, it exposed the lack of depth the Brewers had offensively.

Corey Hart evidently wants the title "Second Coming of Geoff Jenkins".  When he's hot, there's no stopping him.  When he goes cold, he can't hit to save his life.  Unfortunately, he went cold at the least opportune time.

For two MVP candidates who appeared to be heating up at just the right time, Braun and Fielder were virtually non-existent after game 1 of the NLCS.  I can't remember the last time both of these guys were on a hot streak together.  Unfortunately, I'll forever remember the last time they were in a slump together.

If Casey McGehee makes the 2012 Opening Day roster, my guess is that he will be right back to where he started his first Opening Day three years ago... in a bench role.  It's quite unfortunate that a 2009 ROY candidate who had 23 HR's and 100+ RBI's last year seems to have lost his stroke completely... but I suppose that's not uncommon for guys who break into the majors at 27.

Nyjer Morgan was a boon for this team all year long.  Against the Cardinals, he was merely a boob.  Hopefully the experience from this year will translate into maturity for his game (although probably not for his personality).

Everyone else did pretty much as expected throughout the season.  Even Yuni B lived up to his expectations, good or bad.

During the off-season, the Brewers have to make SS and/or 3B a priority, i.e. a top-tier player, not necessarily a gold glove, but someone who is reliable in the field and at the plate.  Reyes jumps to mind first, but I'm sure he's on the minds of nearly every other team as well.  If they don't fill that role, it doesn't matter what they do anywhere else.  While CF seems like an obvious priority as well, I'm not sure they're selling on Morgan or Gomez just yet.  With Prince's seemingly eminent departure, they'll need to fill a role at 1B and cleanup.  Aramis Ramirez might be targeted as he plugs holes at 3B and cleanup (which would be quite ironic that after years of being blocked by Ramirez, McGehee finally lands a starting role with another team only to lose it to the same guy three years later).

However, I'm not exactly sure Fielder is going anywhere just yet... his dismal showing in two of his three post-season series isn't going to instill confidence in very many teams, AL in particular, about his ability to get it done in October... and I'm not sure a team that has cash but isn't ready to compete (e.g. Cubs, Orioles, Mariners, Astros, etc.) is going to meet his (Boras') demands.  Not to mention that Fielder might not even be the 3rd best FA this winter.  I'm about 50-50 he signs a one-year deal with the Brewers and tries to hit the market next year as the prize FA... if he wants to get signed through 2018, that's the only way I see it happening is getting his stock up in Milwaukee in 2012 (or perhaps somewhere else after the trade deadline) and signing a six-year deal 12 months from now.

The window of opportunity isn't closed for the Brewers... there are still a few options to prop it up temporarily to carry them through 2012.  The team is probably only two or three moves (3B/SS, a cleanup hitter, and a late-inning reliever) from standing a decent chance at being back in the post-season next year.

[GGGG]

What about a guy like Alex Gonzales at SS?  Not much at the plate, but a solid fielder - and much cheaper than Reyes.  And what about Grady Sizemore?  I think we need a lefty power threat, and he would be cheaper than Prince.  I worry about Aramis...reputation as not a great clubhouse guy.

[NavinRJohnson]

However, I'm not exactly sure Fielder is going anywhere just yet... his dismal showing in two of his three post-season series isn't going to instill confidence in very many teams, AL in particular, about his ability to get it done in October... and I'm not sure a team that has cash but isn't ready to compete (e.g. Cubs, Orioles, Mariners, Astros, etc.) is going to meet his (Boras') demands.  Not to mention that Fielder might not even be the 3rd best FA this winter.  I'm about 50-50 he signs a one-year deal with the Brewers and tries to hit the market next year as the prize FA... if he wants to get signed through 2018, that's the only way I see it happening is getting his stock up in Milwaukee in 2012 (or perhaps somewhere else after the trade deadline) and signing a six-year deal 12 months from now.

I can only tell you for your own sake that you are out of your mind if you think anything close to this is going to happen, particularly if you are largely basing your theory on a bad week against the Cardinals. The cahnaces of Prince signing a one-year contract with the Brewers are roughly the same as me signing a one-year contract with the Brewers.

[wadesworld]

I can only tell you for your own sake that you are out of your mind if you think anything close to this is going to happen, particularly if you are largely basing your theory on a bad week against the Cardinals. The cahnaces of Prince signing a one-year contract with the Brewers are roughly the same as me signing a one-year contract with the Brewers.

Definitely agree, he is not signing a 1 year deal.  There is a tiny, tiny chance that he resigns with the Brewers, but not for 1 year.  The "big boys" (Boston and NYY) may not be in the "bidding war" because they already have first basemen and DHs, but Florida, Washington, Seattle, or somewhere else will pony up close to (or maybe slightly above) Texiera money for Prince.  I'd say it's about 95% chance he leaves, 5% chance the Brewers pony up enough that he wants to stay with "Uncle" Rickie and his boys in Milwaukee.  And 0% chance he signs a 1 year contact.  That's for guys like Pena who hit 35 homers but has a .200 BA and want to prove they're worth a bigger contract than they're being offered.  When you're hitting .300/35/120 and you're 27 years old, you're getting paid.  He has nothing to prove to anybody.  He already has done so with his play.  And the fact that he is the only player who played in all 162 games this season is something he can point to when teams "worry" about his weight.  He's a top 2 free agent this winter, behind only arguably the best hitter ever to play baseball.