MLB playoff thoughts.

[tower912]

Coming at this as a Tigers fan, I am not afraid of the Yankees.    Sure, they could beat the Tigers, but the way Verlander and Fister are pitching, I think we have a legit shot.     The Yankees beat Verlander twice early, but he found his command and is 22-2 since he last faced them.         What will Tampa and St Louis have in the emotional tank?    Will momentum carry them, or will the emotions of the last few weeks finally take their toll?     Brewers/D-backs is very interesting.    The Brewers look better on paper and how long can Gibson keep the D-backs playing to the limits of their ability?     So, I will predict that Detroit and Texas, and Philadelphia and Milwaukee move on.   

[Skatastrophy]

D'backs won the season series against the Brewers this year, so I'm surprised at the confidence coming out of Brewer's Nation.  I, as a Brewers fan, am happy to be in the Playoffs again and not winning this first series would be a disappointment.

I'm more afraid of playing STL than I am PHI, honestly.  STL has turned into a buzzsaw.

[swoopem]

From growing up in Detroit and having gone to MU I am rooting for a Tigers vs. Brewers World Series, which I think is very likely. I feel Detroit faces their toughest matchup right away so if they beat the Yanks then they will have all the momentum in the world to avdance past the ALCS.

The Brewers though will breeze through Arizona and then be matched up against the Phillies in what could be the best series of the whole playoffs (STL will run out of gas). I'm definitly going to get back to Milwookie though to take in the atmosphere.

However it turns out I am excited to finally be interested in baseball again (I'm a Cubs fan so I gave up at the allstar break)

[tower912]

Apparently, so did the Cubs.     Fister actually has better numbers than Verlander over the last 6 weeks.   Great pick up, I don't think anyone can realistically say they saw him pitching this well.    He has been pitching like a 6'8 Maddox; running and cutting his fastball, not walking anyone, all from that 6'8 arm slot.    I hope he can keep it up. 

[shiloh26]

Coming at this as a Tigers fan, I am not afraid of the Yankees.    Sure, they could beat the Tigers, but the way Verlander and Fister are pitching, I think we have a legit shot.     The Yankees beat Verlander twice early, but he found his command and is 22-2 since he last faced them.         What will Tampa and St Louis have in the emotional tank?    Will momentum carry them, or will the emotions of the last few weeks finally take their toll?     Brewers/D-backs is very interesting.    The Brewers look better on paper and how long can Gibson keep the D-backs playing to the limits of their ability?     So, I will predict that Detroit and Texas, and Philadelphia and Milwaukee move on.   

The DBacks are a scary team.  Kennedy is a legitimate top-line starter and that little offense that could just keeps churning out runs.  I wouldn't be surprised at all to see this go 5 games.  I do think the Brewers come out on top, just because Greinke is phenomenal, Gallardo has been lights out lately, and our offense should just be better than theirs.  I also think the playoff experience of two years ago and this team playing hard for Prince will put a jolt into them.

StL/Philly is going to be a great series, I think.  The Cards have a much better offense than Philly, and I think, in a five game series, the advantages of Lee/Halladay/Hamels aren't as pronounced.  Shrink it to a five game series and Carpenter/Garcia isn't really that much worse, considering the Phillies can't do anything against lefties (Garcia).  Even so, I still think Philly win both Lee and Hallday's starts in Philly, and finish up in the 4th game in St. Louis. 

I agree, I'm not terrified of the Yankees either.  Verlander is the best pitcher in baseball this year, and Fister has been on a tear... the Yankees can't match up with that.  Sabathia/Verlander is going to be epic tonight, but then who for the Yankees?  A good rookie but still a rookie in Ivan Nova and... Freddy Garcia?  Tigers can do damage there. 

I also think the Rangers take care of the Rays.  The Rangers are just sooo balanced on offense, and the Rays played decently down the stretch, but lets not kid ourselves: they are in because the Red Sox absolutely blew it.  Its not like the Rays had some truly incredible stretch run. 

[Benny B]

From growing up in Detroit and having gone to MU I am rooting for a Tigers vs. Brewers World Series, which I think is very likely. I feel Detroit faces their toughest matchup right away so if they beat the Yanks then they will have all the momentum in the world to avdance past the ALCS.

In perusing the net late last night and early this morning, Yankees vs. Phillies is - obviously - the most popular WS prediction amongst the pundits.  But Tigers vs. Brewers looks to be the next most popular.

Seems somewhat intuitive if you think about it.  Pundits are very simplistic... predictions don't carry much, if any, meaningful analysis.  So that leaves them five options upon which to base a prediction:

* Overall records: Phillies & Yankees -- pretty obvious choice.

* Pitching: Phillies & the Rays -- no one ever picks the team who snuck in on the last day to make it to the very end.  See 'Packers, 2010 Playoffs'

* Offense: Rangers & Cards -- All we hear about is pitching, pitching, pitching.  No one in their right mind is going to pick the mashers.

* Sabermetrics: N/A.  This $#*+ doesn't work in the postseason.

* Balance: Tigers & Brewers  -- I suppose you call this the dark horse prediction; however, sometimes balance is rendered meaningless when up against a mammoth.  For example, when my two year old gets on the teeter-totter opposite of me, there is no balance --- I call the shots, and he's entirely at my mercy.  But if I'm not paying attention, he'll slam his end down just as I'm getting on, paralyzing me to the point where he could have his way while I'm preoccupied trying to assess whether he's going to have any more siblings.

[Benny B]

D'backs won the season series against the Brewers this year, so I'm surprised at the confidence coming out of Brewer's Nation. 

Completely irrelevant.  AZ was in Milwaukee Jul 4-6, Milwaukee went to AZ July 18-21.  Had the season ended July 31, then you might have a point; however...

Rewind to Jul 4.  Even though Marcum had belted a grand slam, K-Loe gave up the lead in the eight inning, and the Brewers went on to fall 8-6, splitting the next two for their first home series loss on the season.  Two significant events would occur before they met again:

A few days later, K-Loe is usurped by K-Rod, and on Jul 15, Rickie Weeks hit lead-off for - quite possibly - the last time in his career.

Now skip ahead to the series in AZ.  The Brewers are shut-out by Kennedy in the fourth game, but not only did they still earn a split in the series, they went 5-6 on that west coast road trip.  Not a huge deal on the surface, but lest we forget, Milwaukee was a mere 18-31 on the road going into that series.  As a matter of perspective, Boston was 1.5 games ahead of the Spankees, and AZ was 3.5 behind the Giants at that point as well.  Fat lot of good that did them.

Milwaukee would go on to finish the season 43-19, and jyet... it pains me to see that even their 21-11 road record since hasn't silenced the naysayers who are still today spouting off about the Brewers inability to win on the road.

In other words, the season series between the Snakes and Crew could have been eons ago.  It's a whole new season now, and even an Astros fan isn't going to find anything not to like about Gallardo-Marcum-Greinke-Wolf vs. Kennedy-Collmenter-Hudson-Saunders.  Plus, the Brewers are healthy, which may not be a big deal if you consider Willie Bloomquist an upgrade over Stephen Drew; but bear in mind that Justin Upton took a couple bumps to the noggin last week and didn't exactly impress upon his return Wednesday night.

AZ's best chance is to win 2 with Kennedy and 1 in between somewhere.  Unfortunately for the Snakes, Gallardo will be going opposite Kennedy in Games 1 and 5 (if necessary).  In two games this year, Yo gave up 8 hits and 2 earned runs (admittedly my only concern in that they were both HR's) over 13 innings against AZ.  He struck out 12 and walked 2.  I don't care if you have Cy Young himself on the mound, if I were Kirk Gibson, the thought would cross my mind to concede Game 1 and save Kennedy for Game 2 in the hopes that it would nearly guarantee taking the series back to AZ 1-1 and pray to Jobu (like a Mormon who doesn't want BYU in the Big 12) that the Brewers revert to their first-half road woes.

If AZ can stretch it to a 5-game series and pitch their CY candidate twice, they may have a shot at pulling the upset, but even if Milwaukee's future CY candidate doesn't take the W in Game 1, you've got a heated-up offense that boasts an on-fire Braun and Fielder over the last week (not to mention that even McGehee is hitting .300 against AZ this year) going against an offense that marquees Upton, Montero, the player formerly known as Aaron Hill, a supporting cast that could make Geoff Jenkins look consistent, and no Marquis.

Dropping the season series 4-3 against AZ is a pittance next to the blatant reasons the Brewers should win this series.  Such is why I am looking forward to the Crew walking through Sky Harbor airport next week (the Gen Aviation terminal, any way) and boarding Air Tran Flight #5711 non-stop to Philly.

[swoopem]

Verlander was a stud last night and you could tell that Sabathia was affected by that delay from game 1. I think the Tigers can finish them off tonight with the Yanks sending AJ Burnett to the mound, who everyone knows is the definition of inconsistency.
Pocello isnt exactly an ace, but he can manage a game and let the offense/crowd take over. I think, that looking forward, the Tigers have to win tonight not only because going back to New York would suck, but winning would allow them to rest which is something they need after playing 5 days in a row.

Also I think the Brewers bust out the brooms tonight for the sweep.

[jfmu]

Verlander was a stud last night and you could tell that Sabathia was affected by that delay from game 1. I think the Tigers can finish them off tonight with the Yanks sending AJ Burnett to the mound, who everyone knows is the definition of inconsistency.
Pocello isnt exactly an ace, but he can manage a game and let the offense/crowd take over. I think, that looking forward, the Tigers have to win tonight not only because going back to New York would suck, but winning would allow them to rest which is something they need after playing 5 days in a row.

Also I think the Brewers bust out the brooms tonight for the sweep.

the definition of inconsistency was the strike zone last night.

[tower912]

I agree.   That ump should be ashamed of squeezing Verlander like that.

[jfmu]

I agree.   That ump should be ashamed of squeezing Verlander like that.

You are insane if you think that was a consistently called game.

http://www.brooksbaseball.net/pfxVB/zoneplot.php?pitchSel=all&game=gid_2011_10_03_nyamlb_detmlb_1/&sp_type=1&s_type=7

[Skatastrophy]

You are insane if you think that was a consistently called game.

http://www.brooksbaseball.net/pfxVB/zoneplot.php?pitchSel=all&game=gid_2011_10_03_nyamlb_detmlb_1/&sp_type=1&s_type=7

That's not too bad for a human-called game.  Especially when you're looking at data points in 2-D for a 3-D game.

Whiners are gonna whine, though.

[SaintPaulWarrior]

I have no horse in the race but I do find umpiring to be very influential especially in a short series.

"The main item that jumps for me is that the Yankees and Tigers start with the umpire with the smallest strike zone (Gerry Davis) and then move to the two umpires with the largest strike zones (Tony Randazzo and Eric Cooper). "

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/umpires-of-the-lds/

[jfmu]

I will admit that Verlander pitched a hell of a game but when close to 50% of JV's called strikes were out of the zone I have a problem with it. Especially because it wasn't called on the other end.

[tower912]

Davis is known for a tiny strike zone.   Probably 10 times I muttered something about Yankees getting all of the calls and 10 times I went pheew.    I thought he consistently favored the hitters.    Maybe he didn't share ESPN's overt east coast bias.   

[MUBurrow]

i wasnt paying attention closely enough to have an opinion on the game-long strike zone, but i do remember the ump not giving valverde the called third strike on jeter to end the game. that pitch was one of the best pitches i'd seen all night.

[StillAWarrior]

I will admit that Verlander pitched a hell of a game but when close to 50% of JV's called strikes were out of the zone I have a problem with it. Especially because it wasn't called on the other end.

But if you look at that plot, the ump called the outside (for right handed hitters) pitch fairly consistently for both pitchers.  Verlander just did a great job taking advantage of it.  For the most part, pitches that were close and outside were called strikes...no matter who threw them.  Three very close outside pitches were called balls for Detroit, two were called balls for NY.  Honestly, the plot shows a similar thing for the high pitches.

I'm not saying that the umpire did a good job, but the plot that you linked doesn't really show that he was inconsistent.  The plot shows that if you pitched just outside or just high, you were more than likely going to get the call, irrespective of what team you were pitching for.  It also shows that he wasn't calling the inside strike for either team.  All in all, with the exception of just a couple of pitches (one really low pitch called a strike that favored NY; one low strike that wasn't called that favored NY; and one outside pitch called a strike that favored Detroit) , I think that plot shows a fairly consistent game.

I didn't watch the game, and I don't care about either team.  But part of a pitcher's job is to identify where the ump is calling strikes, identify the outer limits of what he can get away with, and them pitch to those spots.  The plot suggests to me that Detroit did a better job of that than NY.  If the ump is giving the outside and slightly high pitch, throw it there.  The plot shows that the NY pitchers were missing close on the low and inside pitches...two locations that the ump wasn't giving to either team.  Stop throwing there.

[GGGG]

Hey, I have been thinking about this...

The Brewers are pitching Randy Wolf tonight...and leaving Gallardo for a potential start on Friday.  Should they be pitching Gallardo on three-days rest tonight, and coming back with Greinke on regular rest on Friday?  So these are the two scenarios:

What they are doing:

Wednesday: Wolf
Friday: Gallardo
Sunday: Greinke (road if Philly)
Monday: Marcum
Wednesday: Gallardo
Thursday: Wolf


My suggestion:

Wednesday - Gallardo (short rest...everyone else on regular rest)
Friday - Greinke (home)
Sunday - Marcum
Monday - Gallardo
Wednesday - Greinke (home if philly)
Thursday - Wolf

I think my idea is better. 

[Benny B]

Hey, I have been thinking about this...

The Brewers are pitching Randy Wolf tonight...and leaving Gallardo for a potential start on Friday.  Should they be pitching Gallardo on three-days rest tonight, and coming back with Greinke on regular rest on Friday?  So these are the two scenarios:

What they are doing:

Wednesday: Wolf
Friday: Gallardo
Sunday: Greinke (road if Philly)
Monday: Marcum
Wednesday: Gallardo
Thursday: Wolf


My suggestion:

Wednesday - Gallardo (short rest...everyone else on regular rest)
Friday - Greinke (home)
Sunday - Marcum
Monday - Gallardo
Wednesday - Greinke (home if philly)
Thursday - Wolf

I think my idea is better.  

It's been contemplated.  Arizona has also contemplated pitching Kennedy tonight as well.  But the last thing you want to be doing is risk burning out your 1 and 2 by pitching them both on three-days rest in the NLDS... you might have a greater need for one of those guys in the NLCS on three-days.

But if Kennedy goes tonight, one could say that pitching Wolf is tantamount to conceding the game and bringing it back to Milwaukee as he has pitched poorly against AZ this year (9ER, 18H, 3HR, 5BB, 13.1 Innings)... then again, AZ would have to pitch Hudson against Gallardo at home on Friday, and I would think that would be more of a lock for Milwaukee than Kennedy vs. Wolf would be for AZ.  Milwaukee only needs a split, AZ needs a sweep.

Regardless of who is on the bump for the snakes tonight, AZ has to feel like they're going to hit against Wolf, and possibly get to the bullpen early.  So perhaps they save their their best to go up against Milwaukee's best in Game 5.

The question boils down to whether AZ is more focused on living another day (by pitching Kennedy tonight) or winning the series (pitching Kennedy Friday). In other words, do you A) risk not getting to a Game 5, but if you do you've got a decent chance to win the series or B) pull out all stops to get to Game 5 knowing that if you do, you've got nothing left in the tank.

That said, I think if AZ brings Kennedy back tonight on three-days, we'll also see Gallardo.

[GGGG]

I completely understand where you are coming from, but if we wait to pitch Greinke on Friday, he will still have four days rest with the two off days. 

[shiloh26]

I see what you are saying, and its very intriguing, but Gallardo doesn't have much experience pitching on short rest.  I'm still more comfortable with fully rested Wolf and then a fully rested Gallardo, at home, for the final game.  Gallardo just proved with Game 1 that he is the guy I want out there for the must win game... ahead of Greinke, and ahead of Marcum (who, by the way, looked nervous all night last night).

Wolf has big game experience.  And its not like his counterpart tonight is a gamechanger.  This should be a good matchup for us. 

[robmufan]

The question boils down to whether AZ is more focused on living another day (by pitching Kennedy tonight) or winning the series (pitching Kennedy Friday). In other words, do you A) risk not getting to a Game 5, but if you do you've got a decent chance to win the series or B) pull out all stops to get to Game 5 knowing that if you do, you've got nothing left in the tank.

That said, I think if AZ brings Kennedy back tonight on three-days, we'll also see Gallardo.

I agree that they need to pitch Kennedy.  Who cares what kind of shot you have in game 5 if you don't give your best shot to win game 4!

[shiloh26]

I doubt they pitch Kennedy.  They have to give themselves the best chance to win the series, and I think that is planning to win a pretty even pitching matchup tonight, plus being at home, where our defense looked utterly confused, and then put their best guy on the mound on the road.  

If they go Saunders (lefty), I hope to see Gomez in center tonight.  Nyjer has been under-performing on offense, and I'd bet Gomez catches Montero's ball yesterday that touched off the DBack's scoring.  Besides, with Wolf on the mound the defense is going to have to be ready to go... lots of balls will be in play and Gomez provides our best defense.  

[GGGG]

Did Nyjer mis-time his jump on that ball to center?  He seemed to jump, only to have the ball hit off the wall next to him.

[reinko]

Did Nyjer mis-time his jump on that ball to center?  He seemed to jump, only to have the ball hit off the wall next to him.

That ball was a missile off the bat, he got there a bit late too.