Futbol Talk

[jesmu84]

http://www.mlssoccer.com/post/2016/06/07/armchair-analyst-tactical-preview-usa-vs-costa-rica-copa-america

Couldn't be more correct. Get Fabian out on the wing where he belongs. And get Wood off the wing.

Johnson is our best and most creative passer in the final third, a guy who was essentially a Bundesliga All-Star on the wing this past season for a Champions League-bound team. There are few players in the world playing that spot at a higher level.

Playing him at left back eliminated him as an attacking threat. And because Bobby Wood -- a center forward who runs, but doesn't do a lot of clever positional defending -- was on the left wing, Johnson needed a ton of help from the midfield. That dragged Jermaine Jones out of the center and reduced the US numbers in central midfield, leaving Bradley stranded on an island.

Jones wasn't best pleased with the gameplan, saying afterward "We have three midfielders where I feel like if we have a good gameplan, we can put a lot of pressure on other teams. Today was more focused on Colombia and on the left side to help Fabi, so we lost one guy in midfield. So it was tougher to play, yeah."

Tactics! Strategy! Formation! They all matter.

[ChitownSpaceForRent]

Colombia result good for the US. Draw most likely gets them in.

[ChitownSpaceForRent]

So I had a thought. Based on your guys description of the USMNT personel and what I saw today, why wouldn't a 3-5-2 work?

Dempsey and Wood up top, Bedoya in a CAM role, Bradley and Jones as holding mids and Fabian and Yedlin as wing backs. Solves the LB problem and not having to put Fabian in a deeper role. Plus Dempsey and Wood are better in a 2 striker formation than on the wings or by themselves up top.

[brewcity77]

So...thoughts based on yesterday...

It was certainly an interesting tactical plan. Seemed like we were happy to absorb pressure and counter attack early on, letting Costa Rica dictate the pace of play early on. I'll have to watch the replay today, but the Wood penalty looked like a complete non-foul from where I was sitting right behind that goal. My buddy and I were already yelling at Wood to get up before the ref pointed to the spot. Amazed he gave it. Costa Rica continued to dictate play after that, but needing to at least get a draw, had to go further forward.

I know they are renowned for a 5-4-1, but man that defense played like a 3-5-2 yesterday once they started really pushing. The Ticos left huge gaps at the back because their wing backs were bombing forward. Dempsey exploited those holes on a few occasions, though there were numerous other opportunities where he either missed the mark or missed a guy making a run.

Forwards: In general, poor, though they accounted for 2 goals. Dempsey was okay and it felt like he was basically playing the role of a distributing 10. Worked well for him, definitely better than his hold-up play. Wood was poor most of the match, but I imagine after drawing a penalty and scoring another quite a few would have him in for man of the match. While those two plays worked out great, on the whole I felt like he offered little. Though not as little as Zardes. Man, what does he do well? Not fast enough to be a winger, terrible first touch, not a great passer. His best plays on the night seemed to be when he was helping out on the back line. He's pretty clearly stuck out of position.

Midfielders: Jones had a very good game, though why he's playing as our left flank midfielder still baffles me. He's just not suited to be out on the wing. I think that Jones more than Wood is blocking Fabian moving up the pitch. And it's definitely by design, as he kept returning to that side. But yesterday, he was everywhere. Started a bit slowly, but once he got that first shot that went over, he just kicked it up. Made good runs, good defending, and of course the goal. After being terribly disappointed with his performance Friday, I think he'd be my man of the match. Bradley was also solid. Not spectacular, but held his position well, made a ton of good tackles, really looked comfortable playing a more traditional #6 role. Shocking...he was comfortable in his natural position. Bedoya, on the other hand, was fairly useless as well. He has no chemistry with Zardes and just doesn't seem to grasp his role. Maybe because he's used to playing on the left, maybe something else, but it was no surprise that all our positive attacks seemed to either come off the left or from Yedlin. Zusi looked good in relief and made quite a few positive plays before the goal.

Defenders: I was very, very impressed with our back line. Brooks did a great job staying at home and patrolling the center of the pitch. He's starting to take charge of the back line. Got caught out a couple times, but each time Cameron was back there to cover him. I've never been impressed by their partnership in the past, but they were solid yesterday. As were the backs. Both Johnson and Yedlin defended far better than I expected. Fab looked fantastic and had a good sense for when to push up and when to stay home. Also had a great reminder of how blazing fast Yedlin is in the second half when he came from out of nowhere to shut down a Tico on the flank that looked to have a wide open crossing opportunity.

Goalkeeper: Guzan was good. Made a few very good saves and made sure his back line kept their form. Nothing overly spectacular.

[mu03eng]

So...thoughts based on yesterday...

It was certainly an interesting tactical plan. Seemed like we were happy to absorb pressure and counter attack early on, letting Costa Rica dictate the pace of play early on. I'll have to watch the replay today, but the Wood penalty looked like a complete non-foul from where I was sitting right behind that goal. My buddy and I were already yelling at Wood to get up before the ref pointed to the spot. Amazed he gave it. Costa Rica continued to dictate play after that, but needing to at least get a draw, had to go further forward.

I know they are renowned for a 5-4-1, but man that defense played like a 3-5-2 yesterday once they started really pushing. The Ticos left huge gaps at the back because their wing backs were bombing forward. Dempsey exploited those holes on a few occasions, though there were numerous other opportunities where he either missed the mark or missed a guy making a run.

Forwards: In general, poor, though they accounted for 2 goals. Dempsey was okay and it felt like he was basically playing the role of a distributing 10. Worked well for him, definitely better than his hold-up play. Wood was poor most of the match, but I imagine after drawing a penalty and scoring another quite a few would have him in for man of the match. While those two plays worked out great, on the whole I felt like he offered little. Though not as little as Zardes. Man, what does he do well? Not fast enough to be a winger, terrible first touch, not a great passer. His best plays on the night seemed to be when he was helping out on the back line. He's pretty clearly stuck out of position.

Midfielders: Jones had a very good game, though why he's playing as our left flank midfielder still baffles me. He's just not suited to be out on the wing. I think that Jones more than Wood is blocking Fabian moving up the pitch. And it's definitely by design, as he kept returning to that side. But yesterday, he was everywhere. Started a bit slowly, but once he got that first shot that went over, he just kicked it up. Made good runs, good defending, and of course the goal. After being terribly disappointed with his performance Friday, I think he'd be my man of the match. Bradley was also solid. Not spectacular, but held his position well, made a ton of good tackles, really looked comfortable playing a more traditional #6 role. Shocking...he was comfortable in his natural position. Bedoya, on the other hand, was fairly useless as well. He has no chemistry with Zardes and just doesn't seem to grasp his role. Maybe because he's used to playing on the left, maybe something else, but it was no surprise that all our positive attacks seemed to either come off the left or from Yedlin. Zusi looked good in relief and made quite a few positive plays before the goal.

Defenders: I was very, very impressed with our back line. Brooks did a great job staying at home and patrolling the center of the pitch. He's starting to take charge of the back line. Got caught out a couple times, but each time Cameron was back there to cover him. I've never been impressed by their partnership in the past, but they were solid yesterday. As were the backs. Both Johnson and Yedlin defended far better than I expected. Fab looked fantastic and had a good sense for when to push up and when to stay home. Also had a great reminder of how blazing fast Yedlin is in the second half when he came from out of nowhere to shut down a Tico on the flank that looked to have a wide open crossing opportunity.

Goalkeeper: Guzan was good. Made a few very good saves and made sure his back line kept their form. Nothing overly spectacular.

Overall good analysis. The PK on Wood was definitely a foul, or at least the Costa Rican defender gave the official every reason to believe it was a foul. He extended his arms and made contact with Wood....whether he went down easy or not is difficult to say but I think it's a penalty he has to give.

Zardes absolutely needs to be a central forward if we are playing a 4-3-3. He is a striker through and through, why we insist on making him a winger is beyond me. Could have cost us a couple of times as he lost his man when he was tracking back on defense, I think just because he's not really use to do that.

The insistence on Bedoya over other players still baffles me. I just don't see what talent he brings that others don't have more of.

Also thought Dempsey played one of his worst national games to date and just got lucky with a couple of ooppss that bounced USMNT's way.

Overall, I thought it was a solid game tactically from Jurgen. Absorb the pressure and counter, not sure it was the right personnel for it(could have been 5 or 6 to zero) but it was still solid.

[brewcity77]

http://www.mlssoccer.com/post/2016/06/07/armchair-analyst-tactical-preview-usa-vs-costa-rica-copa-america

Couldn't be more correct. Get Fabian out on the wing where he belongs. And get Wood off the wing.

I don't rate Edgar Castillo at all, which is why I like Fab back there. We just don't have another competent left back. Agree with getting Wood off the wing, and Jones as well (though he played great yesterday). I'm not sure why JK is so married to this 4-3-3.

I think that's what really stunts Fabian. Right now, for him to push up, he has to overlap both Jones and Wood. Same goes with Yedlin on the right regarding Zardes and Bedoya. If we were to run a 4-5-1 or 4-4-2, there would be more space on the flank for him to operate and push forward. Give him a competent left mid that can cover back and it would really suit his style of play. But again...we don't have any other competent left backs and we run a system that makes it hard for our fullbacks to get forward.

Colombia result good for the US. Draw most likely gets them in.

Barring Costa Rica putting up a 6-0 on Colombia, we're in with a draw. More interesting, though, is that if the USA were to win, any Costa Rica win would put us atop the group. I don't expect that, as I figure even if Colombia puts it on cruise control the Ticos probably won't score enough to get more than a draw, but there's a sliver of a chance.

So I had a thought. Based on your guys description of the USMNT personel and what I saw today, why wouldn't a 3-5-2 work?

Dempsey and Wood up top, Bedoya in a CAM role, Bradley and Jones as holding mids and Fabian and Yedlin as wing backs. Solves the LB problem and not having to put Fabian in a deeper role. Plus Dempsey and Wood are better in a 2 striker formation than on the wings or by themselves up top.

If we went that route, I'd probably go a bit differently. Brooks in between Birnbaum and Cameron. Gets our best central defenders and best header of the ball out there for setpieces. Fab and Yedlin would have freedom to move up the pitch. I'd get Bedoya the hell out of there (along with Zardes). Bradley and Jones works fine, let Bradley stay home and launch over the top while Jones has freedom to run. Then have Nagbe, Dempsey, and...umm...I guess Wood (Altidore when healthy) up front. I could see it working...

...though last night, that was basically what Costa Rica ran once they went down a goal, and it left them wide open at the back. With the fullbacks having no cushion or cover back, the three center backs were spread out, which left gaping holes at the back. I know any 4-0 result is going to be the anomaly, but my fear with that formation is that it leaves so much open space at the back. Would be okay against teams like Guatemala, Costa Rica, and the lesser CONCACAF teams that like to bunker in, but I fear that the teams that play more aggressively like Mexico or even Jamaica would take advantage of the added space.

[Henry Sugar]

Nice analysis, brew.

I'm going to also pimp my own stuff here.

http://www.lowedownstats.com/index.php/2016/06/08/second-game-changes-things-usmnt/

[mu03eng]

Nice analysis, brew.

I'm going to also pimp my own stuff here.

http://www.lowedownstats.com/index.php/2016/06/08/second-game-changes-things-usmnt/

Henry, love the stats as always...couple of questions for you.

You mentioned the offensive finishing and the US getting lucky, which I can't argue with....but how do you differentiate between a bad shot on target that goes in versus a good shot that is off target from a qualitative standpoint? As an example, there was a shot Zardes "Wondo'ed" from 10 yrs out on the right side of the goal. Everything was done perfectly to get in that position and then he squandered that, how is that not unlucky?

Not necessarily rated to anything, just curious...what's the driving force for you to create this new site. I think it's interesting and something I'll need to visit more. I'm guessing it's because soccer is one of the last bastion of professional sports to essentially reject the value of advanced metrics and analytics (sabermetrics if you will). Either way, any thoughts as to how that starts to change? Will it require technology changes/acceptance to start to get telemetry on these players, etc?

Thanks, I'll hang up and listen to your response.

[Henry Sugar]

Henry, love the stats as always...couple of questions for you.

You mentioned the offensive finishing and the US getting lucky, which I can't argue with....but how do you differentiate between a bad shot on target that goes in versus a good shot that is off target from a qualitative standpoint? As an example, there was a shot Zardes "Wondo'ed" from 10 yrs out on the right side of the goal. Everything was done perfectly to get in that position and then he squandered that, how is that not unlucky?

Not necessarily rated to anything, just curious...what's the driving force for you to create this new site. I think it's interesting and something I'll need to visit more. I'm guessing it's because soccer is one of the last bastion of professional sports to essentially reject the value of advanced metrics and analytics (sabermetrics if you will). Either way, any thoughts as to how that starts to change? Will it require technology changes/acceptance to start to get telemetry on these players, etc?

Thanks, I'll hang up and listen to your response.

Appreciate the questions. I actually wrote about why I started the website on the site itself. If anyone wants to really know a little more about me, there's more there. Even talks a bit about Cracked Sidewalks...

http://www.lowedownstats.com/index.php/my-story/

The tl;dr version is that I wanted to figure out why the Fire kept getting draws in 2014 and couldn't find any data on it.

Most of the data out there is poorly organized and the language of how people talk about soccer is not analytical. I'm trying to approach this to figure out some basic questions regarding teams. Like, is my team actually any good? Do they have a good offense or defense? Why?

I'm purposely focusing on high-level type stats to broaden the audience. I'm targeting the tailgate crowd initially and will do random detailed analysis to keep my "nerd cred". Partially, I'm doing high-level because that's the type of data that I have available. It's also simpler to understand. Figuring out which team had better shot quality is a ratio that my fifth grader can solve (4/12 > 2/10). In addition, because soccer stats are in their infancy, we need to get people up to speed on the basics. Or even figure out the basics. Last, I focus on this because those are the types of questions I find interesting.

To your question of a bad shot on target vs a good shot off target, that gets to a level deeper than I'm currently presenting. However, there are lots of people that have created expected Goal (xG) models. Most xG models work with the idea that shots from certain areas will go in the net x% of the time. A shot right in the box scores 60% of the time or whatever. One of those shots is worth 0.6 xG. Over time, goals tend to equal expected goals. xG is the "next layer of the onion".  Eventually, when I'm ready to pay for the API and hire a developer, I'll probably develop my own xG model or use someone else's.

Because people understand the concept here, my goal is to eventually become the Pomeroy for soccer. And again, I'm really doing this because I want the information and it's not out there. If there was already a Pomeroy for soccer, I wouldn't need to put in the effort. But I'm really making a serious go at this.

Since I'm sharing, I do have a general request, which people can take offline via PM if preferred. If there's any feedback about the site or the stats or if there are suggestions, please provide them.

[Golden Avalanche]

So I had a thought. Based on your guys description of the USMNT personel and what I saw today, why wouldn't a 3-5-2 work?

Dempsey and Wood up top, Bedoya in a CAM role, Bradley and Jones as holding mids and Fabian and Yedlin as wing backs. Solves the LB problem and not having to put Fabian in a deeper role. Plus Dempsey and Wood are better in a 2 striker formation than on the wings or by themselves up top.

I'm unsure either Brooks or Cameron is steady enough to anchor a back three. It also could leave a ton of room to exploit which already is no issue against Yedlin, who gambles far too much. Johnson is better at the two way play but he's also not exactly shy in pressing hard. Bradley covers a ton of ground but with all the work he'd have to put in defensively you may lose him as the initial supplier of a counter which has always been his strength.

It seems as if JK plays roulette with formations so I don't see much harm in a test period. But it would need to be a total commitment and I don't see the time period in the schedule where that's possible.

[brewcity77]

If you're looking for some supplementary stuff, check out Ted Knutson. He's on Twitter, I think his handle is @mixedknuts. He has some fantastic in-depth analysis of individual players.

As far as the shot that Zardes Wondo'd (love that, btw) all I could think at the time was that his first touch is god awful. Amazed me last night how time and time again he would get in great position only to fumble a first touch, or secure a first touch and overhit the second. It seems like the nerves in his feet aren't connected to the rest of his body and brain.

Really, it's amazing he's become such a lock for this team. Kid had a fantastic 2014 MLS campaign, but has done little since for either the Galaxy or the NT. Just doesn't look like an international player out there. I think he's actually more effective tracking back and helping out in defense than he is joining the attack.

[Henry Sugar]

If you're looking for some supplementary stuff, check out Ted Knutson. He's on Twitter, I think his handle is @mixedknuts. He has some fantastic in-depth analysis of individual players.

Yeah, I've been following him for ages. The radars are great, and I'd love to have access to the same data for MLS or the USMNT.

[jesmu84]

Good stuff here:

http://soccer.nbcsports.com/2016/06/07/three-things-we-learned-from-usa-4-0-costa-rica/

[jesmu84]

Appreciate the questions. I actually wrote about why I started the website on the site itself. If anyone wants to really know a little more about me, there's more there. Even talks a bit about Cracked Sidewalks...

http://www.lowedownstats.com/index.php/my-story/

The tl;dr version is that I wanted to figure out why the Fire kept getting draws in 2014 and couldn't find any data on it.

Most of the data out there is poorly organized and the language of how people talk about soccer is not analytical. I'm trying to approach this to figure out some basic questions regarding teams. Like, is my team actually any good? Do they have a good offense or defense? Why?

I'm purposely focusing on high-level type stats to broaden the audience. I'm targeting the tailgate crowd initially and will do random detailed analysis to keep my "nerd cred". Partially, I'm doing high-level because that's the type of data that I have available. It's also simpler to understand. Figuring out which team had better shot quality is a ratio that my fifth grader can solve (4/12 > 2/10). In addition, because soccer stats are in their infancy, we need to get people up to speed on the basics. Or even figure out the basics. Last, I focus on this because those are the types of questions I find interesting.

To your question of a bad shot on target vs a good shot off target, that gets to a level deeper than I'm currently presenting. However, there are lots of people that have created expected Goal (xG) models. Most xG models work with the idea that shots from certain areas will go in the net x% of the time. A shot right in the box scores 60% of the time or whatever. One of those shots is worth 0.6 xG. Over time, goals tend to equal expected goals. xG is the "next layer of the onion".  Eventually, when I'm ready to pay for the API and hire a developer, I'll probably develop my own xG model or use someone else's.

Because people understand the concept here, my goal is to eventually become the Pomeroy for soccer. And again, I'm really doing this because I want the information and it's not out there. If there was already a Pomeroy for soccer, I wouldn't need to put in the effort. But I'm really making a serious go at this.

Since I'm sharing, I do have a general request, which people can take offline via PM if preferred. If there's any feedback about the site or the stats or if there are suggestions, please provide them.

If I'm not mistaken, I believe expected goals vs Colombia and CR were almost the same. Crazy.

[Henry Sugar]

If I'm not mistaken, I believe expected goals vs Colombia and CR were almost the same. Crazy.

Were they really? Do you have the numbers?

[jesmu84]

Were they really? Do you have the numbers?

It was a tweet. This is all I have.

https://twitter.com/PCarrESPN/status/740363746871148544

Found this in the responses. Seems like a guy bringing advanced stats to soccer like you.

https://twitter.com/MC_of_A/status/740365526304739329

[brewcity77]

Just cracking open your site, definitely in the basic mode right now but I can see the potential. Not sure what else you've looked at. I think because of the size and scope of the game, that's why there aren't as many hard analytics.

Take Bobby Wood the other night. Drew a penalty, scored a goal, put at least one other "shot" on target. Based on that, most ratings I saw gave him something in the 6.5 to 7.5 range. But watching live...he looked ghastly. Quite a few squandered opportunities and lost balls. His other shot on target was a softball lob straight to the keeper that a 4-year-old could have stopped. Penalty was, in my eyes, dubious at best. The goal was excellent. A true striker's goal where he did all the right things, including keeping his head down and trusting his accuracy, not looking up at the goal until after the strike was en route (are you paying attention, Gyasi Zardes?) to the corner of the net.

But all the bad things go unacknowledged so people only focus on the "he scored" aspect and think he played well. I'd love to see more detail of stuff like runs made, offside tendencies, crosses, tackles, tackles without fouling (especially in the box), pass completion percentage...put it all together to bring player ratings in along with the team ratings.

One thing that has always kind of bugged me about soccer, and I think it started when I was first playing Winning Eleven 6 (before it became Pro Evo in the States) was how players would be given their game rating. No idea how it calculated why my CMF that I thought did well, won balls, and passed accurately ended up with a 5.5 but the striker that was off target 90% of the time but got one goal ended up with a 7.5 and man of the match.

I think a true calculation on the 0-10 scale would be fantastic. Something where you could actually point to the data and not just say "Player X was man of the match" but could statistically demonstrate WHY he was man of the match. Of course, I'm not sure that would be possible without a ton of in-depth information, getting all the passing/tackle/scoring/shot/cross/possession/save statistics and finding a way to balance them between the positions, and figuring out how to balance it for defensive changes that leave guys marking players not typically their responsibility (such as Cameron losing his mark on the corner against Colombia, a defender, though he would typically be marking a forward in open play).

Just a few random thoughts. Looks good. Can't wait to see it develop.

[mu03eng]

Just cracking open your site, definitely in the basic mode right now but I can see the potential. Not sure what else you've looked at. I think because of the size and scope of the game, that's why there aren't as many hard analytics.

Take Bobby Wood the other night. Drew a penalty, scored a goal, put at least one other "shot" on target. Based on that, most ratings I saw gave him something in the 6.5 to 7.5 range. But watching live...he looked ghastly. Quite a few squandered opportunities and lost balls. His other shot on target was a softball lob straight to the keeper that a 4-year-old could have stopped. Penalty was, in my eyes, dubious at best. The goal was excellent. A true striker's goal where he did all the right things, including keeping his head down and trusting his accuracy, not looking up at the goal until after the strike was en route (are you paying attention, Gyasi Zardes?) to the corner of the net.

But all the bad things go unacknowledged so people only focus on the "he scored" aspect and think he played well. I'd love to see more detail of stuff like runs made, offside tendencies, crosses, tackles, tackles without fouling (especially in the box), pass completion percentage...put it all together to bring player ratings in along with the team ratings.

One thing that has always kind of bugged me about soccer, and I think it started when I was first playing Winning Eleven 6 (before it became Pro Evo in the States) was how players would be given their game rating. No idea how it calculated why my CMF that I thought did well, won balls, and passed accurately ended up with a 5.5 but the striker that was off target 90% of the time but got one goal ended up with a 7.5 and man of the match.

I think a true calculation on the 0-10 scale would be fantastic. Something where you could actually point to the data and not just say "Player X was man of the match" but could statistically demonstrate WHY he was man of the match. Of course, I'm not sure that would be possible without a ton of in-depth information, getting all the passing/tackle/scoring/shot/cross/possession/save statistics and finding a way to balance them between the positions, and figuring out how to balance it for defensive changes that leave guys marking players not typically their responsibility (such as Cameron losing his mark on the corner against Colombia, a defender, though he would typically be marking a forward in open play).

Just a few random thoughts. Looks good. Can't wait to see it develop.

I'm using your Wood comments as a spring board for a deeper thought about analytics in soccer. The Bobby Wood goal was indeed a classic strikers goal, and evidence I would argue(Taylor Twellmen disagrees I guess) that good should be playing centrally, not as a winger. From an analytics standpoint, how do you divorce formation/position from ability/performance? I think statistically(and visually for me at least) I thought Wood and Dempsey had sub par games but all of the traditional stats would say they were good and/or great....but I also think some of the sub par performance is related to the formation at play. I think there needs to be some recognition that with soccer, probably more than any sport, that where/how you are playing on the field can account for a large portion of your ability to perform.

Just my rambling for the day.

[Henry Sugar]

It was a tweet. This is all I have.

https://twitter.com/PCarrESPN/status/740363746871148544

Found this in the responses. Seems like a guy bringing advanced stats to soccer like you.

https://twitter.com/MC_of_A/status/740365526304739329

yeah, Michael Caley is the biggest name putting out xG. He and Mike Goodman (who wrote for Grantland and StatsBomb) just started a podcast called "The Double Pivot". I have downloaded the first two episodes but haven't listened yet.

I generally agree with his numbers. 1.4 xG + a penalty. The US scored four goals, but they only had 5 shots on target. If 33% of shots on target go in, that's roughly 1.7 xG.

By the way, if anyone wants to go down the rabbit hole, this is a good starting point.

http://statsbomb.com/2016/06/good-ideas-and-lessons-learned/

[jesmu84]

I'm using your Wood comments as a spring board for a deeper thought about analytics in soccer. The Bobby Wood goal was indeed a classic strikers goal, and evidence I would argue(Taylor Twellmen disagrees I guess) that good should be playing centrally, not as a winger. From an analytics standpoint, how do you divorce formation/position from ability/performance? I think statistically(and visually for me at least) I thought Wood and Dempsey had sub par games but all of the traditional stats would say they were good and/or great....but I also think some of the sub par performance is related to the formation at play. I think there needs to be some recognition that with soccer, probably more than any sport, that where/how you are playing on the field can account for a large portion of your ability to perform.

Just my rambling for the day.

Agreed. Players' natural instincts on things like off-the-ball runs, positioning, etc. play a huge aspect. Identifying player tendencies such as those are tough. Putting a player at a position in a formation to take advantage of those tendencies will make them, and the team, better. Forcing them into another situation forces them to re-adjust their mindset, typically to a detriment. At the very least, they have to actively think about what they're doing, which means they are slower to react to the run of play.

You can tell Wood was all instincts on his goal. Not actively thinking about what he was doing. He looks slower/inhibited when playing the wing. He makes constant middle runs (striker runs) when on the wing, which clogs the middle if someone else (Dempsey) is there. Not sure who realized it (Wood, Dempsey, Klins), but against CR, Dempsey would make a run to the wing if Wood came inside, which dramatically changed the effectiveness of those runs and forced the CR defense to make adjustments.

[Henry Sugar]

Just cracking open your site, definitely in the basic mode right now but I can see the potential. Not sure what else you've looked at. I think because of the size and scope of the game, that's why there aren't as many hard analytics.

Take Bobby Wood the other night. Drew a penalty, scored a goal, put at least one other "shot" on target. Based on that, most ratings I saw gave him something in the 6.5 to 7.5 range. But watching live...he looked ghastly. Quite a few squandered opportunities and lost balls. His other shot on target was a softball lob straight to the keeper that a 4-year-old could have stopped. Penalty was, in my eyes, dubious at best. The goal was excellent. A true striker's goal where he did all the right things, including keeping his head down and trusting his accuracy, not looking up at the goal until after the strike was en route (are you paying attention, Gyasi Zardes?) to the corner of the net.

But all the bad things go unacknowledged so people only focus on the "he scored" aspect and think he played well. I'd love to see more detail of stuff like runs made, offside tendencies, crosses, tackles, tackles without fouling (especially in the box), pass completion percentage...put it all together to bring player ratings in along with the team ratings.

One thing that has always kind of bugged me about soccer, and I think it started when I was first playing Winning Eleven 6 (before it became Pro Evo in the States) was how players would be given their game rating. No idea how it calculated why my CMF that I thought did well, won balls, and passed accurately ended up with a 5.5 but the striker that was off target 90% of the time but got one goal ended up with a 7.5 and man of the match.

I think a true calculation on the 0-10 scale would be fantastic. Something where you could actually point to the data and not just say "Player X was man of the match" but could statistically demonstrate WHY he was man of the match. Of course, I'm not sure that would be possible without a ton of in-depth information, getting all the passing/tackle/scoring/shot/cross/possession/save statistics and finding a way to balance them between the positions, and figuring out how to balance it for defensive changes that leave guys marking players not typically their responsibility (such as Cameron losing his mark on the corner against Colombia, a defender, though he would typically be marking a forward in open play).

Just a few random thoughts. Looks good. Can't wait to see it develop.

Appreciate the feedback about the player approach. Once I pay for the API, I'll have access to individual player data. That will open up a world of information. Right now, however, I have to go to each game and then enter data into a spreadsheet manually, and then load it onto the site. Player data is too hard to do manually.

By the way, along with the Copa information, I'll have the Euro 2016 data on the site too.

@LoweDownStats

[ChitownSpaceForRent]

Anybody going to the game tomorrow?

[brewcity77]

Anybody going to the game tomorrow?

Yeah, with a buddy from work. Hope Messi plays, he's the main reason we got tickets.

[ChitownSpaceForRent]

Man, soldier field looks absolutely stunning. Stadium is perfect to watch a soccer match.

[ChitownSpaceForRent]

I had an unbelievable angle for that Messi free kick. Also managed to get it in video. Before he took it I was like, I'm gonna record this just incase.