Futbol Talk

[MUDPT]

Man, that's a huge gamble. Look at the CL Final with Diego Costa. Can't risk having to use an early sub in a match that could go 120.

Agree.  If you read the Shin Guardian preview, he thinks the US needs to press early as Belgium are a slow starter.  Can't risk having a striker coming back and trying to go as hard as possible for 60+ minutes.  I can only see him coming on at the 75+ minute mark if the US is down.  His match fitness has to be really poor too.

[mu03eng]

Man, that's a huge gamble. Look at the CL Final with Diego Costa. Can't risk having to use an early sub in a match that could go 120.

What happens if you bring Jozy in at the 70th minute and the game still goes 120 minutes?  50 minutes at the beginning of the game or at the end is largely irrelevant.

I think Jozy gives the Belgiums match-up issues and I'd rather through my best punch early than hope to stay in and need him to press at the end.  We've got to take it to the Belgians early IMHO

[MUfan12]

What happens if you bring Jozy in at the 70th minute and the game still goes 120 minutes?  50 minutes at the beginning of the game or at the end is largely irrelevant.

I think Jozy gives the Belgiums match-up issues and I'd rather through my best punch early than hope to stay in and need him to press at the end.  We've got to take it to the Belgians early IMHO

If he can go 50, great. Do it. I'm worried he has to be subbed after 15.

[reinko]

Start him, punch Belgium in the teeth from the very beginning, especially if Kompany is out.  

[Henry Sugar]

I've talked myself into and out of the Jozy early vs Jozy late argument.

The more risk averse move is to start him so you preserve the extra sub. The advantage of subbing late (75th min or so) is that you get the additional breaks with stoppage of play, but it's riskier with the potential of him getting injured and burning two subs.

Most coaches are risk averse, but Jurgen isn't most coaches. Guess we'll have to wait and see...

[jesmu84]

If it was me, I'd bring him in as a second half sub. Jozy probably also has a say in this, as further aggravation could lead to a serious injury. If US is up, might not need him at all. If US is down big, won't need him. Just bring him in if US is down 1, around 60-65min

[mu03eng]

If it was me, I'd bring him in as a second half sub. Jozy probably also has a say in this, as further aggravation could lead to a serious injury. If US is up, might not need him at all. If US is down big, won't need him. Just bring him in if US is down 1, around 60-65min

Yeah, I guess I don't look at Jozy as instant offense(he can be) but he is more of a grinder.  I think he does his best work when he can grind the offense and wear them out.  If he doesn't have the juice to play 60-70 minutes and wear Belgium out, I'm not sure that he should play at all.

[Golden Avalanche]

Yeah, I guess I don't look at Jozy as instant offense(he can be) but he is more of a grinder.  I think he does his best work when he can grind the offense and wear them out.  If he doesn't have the juice to play 60-70 minutes and wear Belgium out, I'm not sure that he should play at all.

On a similar vein, the legend grows when not available. Whether he starts, second half sub, or last minute desperation I fear people will be sorely disappointed if they're looking at Jozy's presence being some sort of skeleton key to solve the puzzle of Belgium.

[Henry Sugar]

On a similar vein, the legend grows when not available. Whether he starts, second half sub, or last minute desperation I fear people will be sorely disappointed if they're looking at Jozy's presence being some sort of skeleton key to solve the puzzle of Belgium.

On the other hand, I recently read something that talked about how strikers are more efficient at scoring when they are used as substitutes.

Playing Jozy as a sub may increase his impact.

[mu03eng]

On the other hand, I recently read something that talked about how strikers are more efficient at scoring when they are used as substitutes.

Playing Jozy as a sub may increase his impact.

Not being flippant, but is this a statistical hypothesis or an anecdotal one?  I get maybe the fresh legs against tired defense as a factor, but that doesn't seem nearly enough to increase efficiency.  It be interesting to see what the rate of goal scoring is late in games, with and without striker substitutions.

[MUfan12]

On the other hand, I recently read something that talked about how strikers are more efficient at scoring when they are used as substitutes.

Playing Jozy as a sub may increase his impact.

I like the idea of bringing his fresh legs off the bench to run at tired defenders. I'd love for Yedlin to be deployed the same way he was vs. Portugal for that same reason.

This Belgian back four can be exploited. Especially on the flanks. Bradley is so, so critical for them today. If he can corral the ball and pick out a wide pass effectively, they have a real chance of opening Belgium up.

[GooooMarquette]

Anyone know if they're showing the WC games on a big screen at MU - maybe in the union?

We're headed to the BBQ this evening and hoping to catch the match beforehand.  I know we could find a bar to watch, but with the daughter along, I'd rather find a campus place if they're showing them.

[MUfan12]

I think the Brooks Lounge in the AMU has been showing the games.

[ChicosBailBonds]

To be frank, this reads more like you're rating Belgium very high because you rate the US very low. May I ask what specifically about Belgium makes them a class ahead of the Estados Unidos?

Regarding our group opponents, it surprises me that Ghana has gotten off without criticism. Talking about a team you think the US was lucky to beat. A team who went toe-to-toe with Germany. But also a team that pulled a complete no-show against a supposedly inferior Portugal squad (who finished higher than Ghana, by the way).

And regarding that inferior Portugal squad, even with injury to the best player in the world this past campaign they were able to gather four points which was enough to qualify for 25% of the teams in the Round of 16. Portuguese were undone by a poor 14 minute stretch that saw them concede twice and have a man sent off against Germany.

Let's put the boot on the other foot for a second.  If the US had the game Ghana did against us and gave up a late goal on a corner kick header, would we feel it was a game we should have won?  In my opinion, we were fortunate to win that game.  Draw seemed more likely as the Ghanians outplayed us most of the game. 

The reverse for Portugal, as that was a game we controlled the play and should have won.  Let's not forget Portugal has to squeak by Sweden 3-2 just to get into the World Cup.  I know they are ranked highly, but they were a disappointment in this tournament.

Hopefully the boys play well today and Bradley shows up.  Most concerned about our defense that has given up 4 goals.  Belgians have given up 1 goal, which is actually a little surprising to me.  Having 4 backs, all of them center backs, usually presents problems with so many playing out of position, but they have been able to hold together thus far.  Belgium is certainly beatable, anyone is.  In a one game affair, the pressure to advance, anything is possible.  Hoping for the best, but don't anticipate a victory today.  Perhaps we can get it to penalty kicks and surprise.

[GooooMarquette]

I think the Brooks Lounge in the AMU has been showing the games.

Thanks - we'll give it a try.

[Henry Sugar]

Not being flippant, but is this a statistical hypothesis or an anecdotal one?  I get maybe the fresh legs against tired defense as a factor, but that doesn't seem nearly enough to increase efficiency.  It be interesting to see what the rate of goal scoring is late in games, with and without striker substitutions.

Come on, man!

I got it from this. It compares Non-Penalty Goals / 90 min (NPG90) for starters and subs across Chicarito and four other players. The tl;dr version is that the players they list score goals as subs at roughly twice the rate they do as starters.

http://www.statsbomb.com/2014/06/statsbomb-mythbusting-is-javier-hernandez-any-good/

Before anyone says, "It's only five players", that article is based on this link, which was in the Hernandez article. This one goes across hundreds of players and multiple leagues and finds a consistent effect for increased scoring rates for subs.

http://www.statsbomb.com/2014/01/smart-use-of-substitutes-can-make-a-difference/

The scoring boost for an attacking player is also linked with substitution-ON effects. Therefore, the benefit would be realized by bringing Jozy on later as a sub.

analytics rule
Soccer has fun stats as well
Jozy super-sub

[Henry Sugar]

fixed

[ChicosBailBonds]

I'll be cheering hard Henry, excited about the game and the opportunity.  I think your image is wrong, but whatever.  More appropriate would be something like this:

[Henry Sugar]

Spare me the grim litany of the "realist." Give me the unrealistic aspirations of the optimist any day.
Colin Powell

[ChicosBailBonds]

I believe we can win.  I don't think we will. 

[WarriorInNYC]

Odd lineup.  Klinny rolling out a 4-3-3 with Bedoya, Zusi up top with Dempsey and Geoff Cameron at right mid.

[mu03eng]

Odd lineup.  Klinny rolling out a 4-3-3 with Bedoya, Zusi up top with Dempsey and Geoff Cameron at right mid.

I like it, they are going after the flanks hard.  guarantee Cameron comes off late for Yedlin if the US needs some punch

[ChicosBailBonds]

How many games have had a fan go on the field now, 7 or 8?  Security must be appalling around the field.

[GooooMarquette]

Epic fail by Marquette. All the big rooms at the AMU are closed off and not a single TV is tuned to the match.  It's like the only place on earth where people don't seem to know the World Cup is going on.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Scary game, can't believe we are hanging on.  Maybe we can get a goal and keep dodging the bullets.