ESPN: MU Not a Lock

[TallTitan34]

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bubblewatch

The other 10 teams are a lock.

[ChicosBailBonds]

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bubblewatch

The other 10 teams are a lock.

In theory, I think they are right.  Lock means 100% in.  What if, tonight MU lost by 30 points?  My guess is if MU wins tonight, lock.  If MU loses tonight but is competitive....in.  If MU loses tonight by say 10 to 15...still in.  If MU gets destroyed tonight, by 25+...probably still in but these are the things you don't want to give a bunch of people in a room to think about.

I believe it's accurate that they label us "team that should be in"

As good as we looked last night, it's Providence.  It's a "taking care of business" game and we took care of business.

I expect on Sunday our name is on the board, but in the true definition of a LOCK, I think they are right.  At the end of the day, it doesn't matter what any of us here on a MU message board think, it's about a few folks in a room that decide.

[Pakuni]

It seems Lunardi would beg to differ.
As of this morning, he has MU as a 10 seed, with at least nine at-large teams below. With most of the smaller conference tournaments out of the way at this point, it's hard to imagine what could happen to plummet MU 10 spots. A neutral court loss to a top 20 team wouldn't seem to do it.

[TallTitan34]

I think we are lock.  Too many teams are behind us to fall out.

[#MUBB]

I still feel very confident, just anxious for Sunday to see our seed. I'll watch the game tonight with little to no stress. Pretty tough with 13 losses to be a "lock."

[ChicosBailBonds]

A neutral court loss to a top 20 team wouldn't seem to do it.

Agree, unless it was an absolute butt stomping...that might change some opinions.  Sometimes it's not that you lose, but how you lose.

I have every reason to believe MU is in, but I don't disparage ESPN for saying we're not a Lock but rather "should be in"...that seems about as accurate to me as one can get considering we could get annihilated, a bunch of NIT type teams from the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, SEC, PAC Ten crash the party.  Likely?  Nope.  Possible?  Yes.  And thus that makes it a "should be in" but not an absolute lock.

[TallTitan34]

Im guessing we won't win the BET so 14 losses.

[MuMark]

Lunardi has us off the bubble. 39 on his S curve in Green.

Green means 85% chance or more of making the tourny.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Lunardi has us off the bubble. 39 on his S curve in Green.

Green means 85% chance or more of making the tourny.

Which begs the question...isn't a "lock" supposed to be 100%?   

[TallTitan34]

We are in 77 of 82 predicted brackets.

That is a lot of wrong people if we miss.

http://bracketproject.50webs.com/matrix.htm

[MerrittsMustache]

Marquette should feel pretty comfortable. The main reason, they're not a "lock" is because there could be some crazy upsets in conference tournaments allowing teams to "steal" MU's spot. For example, Butler was likely in already, but had UWM won last night, they would have taken a spot from one of the bubble teams.

[TallTitan34]

Marquette should feel pretty comfortable. The main reason, they're not a "lock" is because there could be some crazy upsets in conference tournaments allowing teams to "steal" MU's spot. For example, Butler was likely in already, but had UWM won last night, they would have taken a spot from one of the bubble teams.

Most of the smaller conference tournaments are done aren't they?

[Pakuni]

Which begs the question...isn't a "lock" supposed to be 100%?   

Fair enough. MU is not a 100 percent lock.
But it would take an almost unthinkable sequence of events (say, like, losing an 18-point lead with less than six minutes to play) to Marquette to somehow be left out of the dance.

Agree?

[ChicosBailBonds]

We are in 77 of 82 predicted brackets.

That is a lot of wrong people if we miss.

http://bracketproject.50webs.com/matrix.htm

Yup...but they've been wrong on their final picks in the past.  In 2006, the Bracketproject had 91.3% of their compilation pick Missouri State...they were wrong.  In 2006, 90% picked Cincinnati in...they were wrong.  57% picked Hofstra in...they were wrong.

In 2007, 96.7% of the Bracketproject said Syracuse was in...they were wrong.  53.3% said Drexel was in...they weren't.

In 2008, 62.3% said Illinois State was in....nope.

In 2009, 46% said San Diego State....no soup for the Aztecs.

Last year, 39% missed on Mississippi State.  Another 36% missed on Va Tech.  33% missed on Illinois

Win, we're in.  Lose, were' very likely in...unless we get destroyed and a lot of other crazy stuff happens this week....pretty much what ESPN.com said.

[damuts222]

Marquette's not a lock because ESPN wants people to tune into the game that otherwise wouldn't have any interest in watching it. ESPN plugging their programming...I think so. Regardless lets get a win tonight and make it a lock.

[TallTitan34]

But a lot, if not all, of those teams were near the last four out.  We have 10 or more teams behind us right now.

[NersEllenson]

Yup...but they've been wrong on their final picks in the past.  In 2006, the Bracketproject had 91.3% of their compilation pick Missouri State...they were wrong.  In 2006, 90% picked Cincinnati in...they were wrong.  57% picked Hofstra in...they were wrong.

In 2007, 96.7% of the Bracketproject said Syracuse was in...they were wrong.  53.3% said Drexel was in...they weren't.

In 2008, 62.3% said Illinois State was in....nope.

In 2009, 46% said San Diego State....no soup for the Aztecs.

Last year, 39% missed on Mississippi State.  Another 36% missed on Va Tech.  33% missed on Illinois

Win, we're in.  Lose, were' very likely in...unless we get destroyed and a lot of other crazy stuff happens this week....pretty much what ESPN.com said.

Thank you again for being a voice of concern for the prospects of MU.  How about this:  If MU loses tonight and we don't make the NCAA..I will delete my Scoop account and never post here again.  However, if MU loses tonight and still makes the tourney - You agree to delete your account and never post here again?  Deal?

[muguru]

Most of the smaller conference tournaments are done aren't they?

Yes, but what if Someone other than Temple, Xavier or Richmond wins the A-10?? What if NC State wins the ACC?? What if Auburn wins the SEC tourney?? What if Iowa State wins the Big XII tourney?? What if Rutgers wins the Big East Tourney?? What if Penn State wins the Big Televen tourney??

There are still plenty of wacko things that can happen this week. there's a better chance of me winning the lottery than seeing all the above teams winning their tournaments, but you get the picture.

[The Man in Gold]

If everyone was a lock, what would ESPN talk about for the next 5 days?

[bilsu]

I do not believe Villanova is a lock. They have a five game losing streak that would be longer is they had not beat DePaul in overtime.

[TallTitan34]

Yes, but what if Someone other than Temple, Xavier or Richmond wins the A-10?? What if NC State wins the ACC?? What if Auburn wins the SEC tourney?? What if Iowa State wins the Big XII tourney?? What if Rutgers wins the Big East Tourney?? What if Penn State wins the Big Televen tourney??

There are still plenty of wacko things that can happen this week. there's a betetr chance of me winning teh lottery than seeing all the above teams winning their tournaments, but you get the picture.

Even if all of these things happen, we have 5 teams if not more behind us.

[Ari Gold]

In theory, I think they are right.  Lock means 100% in.  What if, tonight MU lost by 30 points?  My guess is if MU wins tonight, lock.  If MU loses tonight but is competitive....in.  If MU loses tonight by say 10 to 15...still in.  If MU gets destroyed tonight, by 25+...probably still in but these are the things you don't want to give a bunch of people in a room to think about.

I believe it's accurate that they label us "team that should be in"

As good as we looked last night, it's Providence.  It's a "taking care of business" game and we took care of business.

I expect on Sunday our name is on the board, but in the true definition of a LOCK, I think they are right.  At the end of the day, it doesn't matter what any of us here on a MU message board think, it's about a few folks in a room that decide.

+1
Also... not 100% sold on Nova. I kinda feel that if they get to be a lock, we get to be a lock. S

[ATWizJr]

We are in.

[jmayer1]

Thank you again for being a voice of concern for the prospects of MU.  How about this:  If MU loses tonight and we don't make the NCAA..I will delete my Scoop account and never post here again.  However, if MU loses tonight and still makes the tourney - You agree to delete your account and never post here again?  Deal?

Calm down. Chico's is simply pointing out that it would take an embarassing blowout and a few upsets for MU to possibly not be in. I think most people would agree with that.

[Muhoops85]

Thank you again for being a voice of concern for the prospects of MU.  How about this:  If MU loses tonight and we don't make the NCAA..I will delete my Scoop account and never post here again.  However, if MU loses tonight and still makes the tourney - You agree to delete your account and never post here again?  Deal?

Sheesh, all the guy did was point out what happened in the past and how it shows that regardless of what the bracketologists say, the only real bracket that matters is the one that comes out on Sunday.  Was this comment really necessary?