ESPN: MU Not a Lock

[lab_warrior]

Lunardi has us off the bubble. 39 on his S curve in Green.

Green means 85% chance or more of making the tourny.

Yeah, I prefer the %age to either "should be in" or "lock".  We have a VERY HIGH PERCENTAGE chance of being in.  VERY HIGH.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Thank you again for being a voice of concern for the prospects of MU.  How about this:  If MU loses tonight and we don't make the NCAA..I will delete my Scoop account and never post here again.  However, if MU loses tonight and still makes the tourney - You agree to delete your account and never post here again?  Deal?

You are one weird dude.  I'm a fan...why would I delete my account and miss talking about MU.  Maybe you should write a bunch of hate letters to ESPN for having the crazed rationale to say MU "should be in" (same as I said, but is not a 100% lock.  How dare they say that.   

I'd go so far as to say 98% chance we are in...hell, Lunardi is only saying 85%...what a anti-MU guy Lunardi must be.  What a negative Nancy he must be.  Why, I'll bet he hates Marquette and Buzz Williams especially.  We need to get him off the tv and the internets immediately.

[RawdogDX]

They have 24, non-big east, locks/auto bids listed.  A total of only 34 teams.  Gives us a lot of room to get in.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Sheesh, all the guy did was point out what happened in the past and how it shows that regardless of what the bracketologists say, the only real bracket that matters is the one that comes out on Sunday.  Was this comment really necessary?

Not what is said, but who said it.

[21Jumpstreet]

Just shown on ESPN that MU (10 seed) has moved above 'Nova (11).

[lab_warrior]

Just shown on ESPN that MU (10 seed) has moved above 'Nova (11).

That makes pretty good sense after last night.  Nova got beat, MU came and took care of business. 

[TheButlerDidIt]

This is going to result in another thread that Ners/Chicos'll get locked up. Let the pissing begin...

[4everwarriors]

Serves further to show it's a big man's game.

[TheButlerDidIt]

We are in 77 of 82 predicted brackets.

That is a lot of wrong people if we miss.

http://bracketproject.50webs.com/matrix.htm

and that page was not updated after MU smoked PC last night. Last update was around 8pm last night.

[bobnoxious]

With nova and now apparently further down the line then they were yesterday the committee would have to limit it to 8 big east teams at this point for us not to get in

[MerrittsMustache]

But a lot, if not all, of those teams were near the last four out.  We have 10 or more teams behind us right now.

In theory, there are 10+ teams behind MU but as Chicos pointed out, what outsider believe is not always what the committee believes. Though they claim that conference affiliation doesn't come into play, if it's decided that 11 teams from one conference is too many in the minds of some committee members, MU could be the odd man out.

For the record, I do think that MU is going to get in. I've just seen too many odd things happen in this process to call them a lock.

[Lennys Tap]

Thank you again for being a voice of concern for the prospects of MU.  How about this:  If MU loses tonight and we don't make the NCAA..I will delete my Scoop account and never post here again.  However, if MU loses tonight and still makes the tourney - You agree to delete your account and never post here again?  Deal?

Sorry Ners, but I think Chicos is right on this one. We'll have 14 losses when they announce the pairings. I think we should be in, but I won't celebrate until I hear our name called.

[Big Papi]

In theory, I think they are right.  Lock means 100% in.  What if, tonight MU lost by 30 points?  My guess is if MU wins tonight, lock.  If MU loses tonight but is competitive....in.  If MU loses tonight by say 10 to 15...still in.  If MU gets destroyed tonight, by 25+...probably still in but these are the things you don't want to give a bunch of people in a room to think about.

I don't think the margin of the loss, if we do indeed lose today matters.  We are not a lock because what if all of the favorites lose, all the bubble teams around us win a few and someone who has no business making the tourny all of sudden gets hot and wins an auto bid.  The chances of all of that happening are slim but still possible.  The "we are probably in" is appropriate. 

Lets just hope the South Florida/Rutgers, Georgia Tech, Minnesota, Washington State and Baylors of the world don't go winning conference tournaments with Virginia Tech, Colorado, Michigan, Michigan State and Nebraksa teams making long conference tourny runs.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Just shown on ESPN that MU (10 seed) has moved above 'Nova (11).

In some ways, I'd prefer the 11 seed.

[TallTitan34]

Definately prefer the 11 seed.

[cheebs09]

In some ways, I'd prefer the 11 seed.

I agree Chicos. Mainly I hope we get a chance to matchup against BYU in the second round no matter what seed we get. Although we obviously have to take care of that first round matchup, but I don't know how much of a difference there is between a 5 and a 6 seed this year. With a 2 seed we may be going against a Purdue or Texas.

Does anyone think we may be put into an 8/9 game with all the good but not great Big East teams? I think if Pitt or ND win the BET they have a good shot at the one seed, but I think we have more in the 2-4 area (granted about two weeks ago I would have included Nova in that category).

I will say, if we win today I think we have an outside shot at the 7 seed. Call me crazy, but I think we will be pleasantly surprised about our seed this year, much like last year.

[APieperFan3]

In some ways, I'd prefer the 11 seed.

I tend to agree...except that you said it, which makes me not agree.  

Do you guys think our seed can swing from an 11 to possibly a 7? How about these scenerios...(I'll lay it out so it's easy to "quote")

MU loses to WVU by 2. We get a 10 or 11 seed?

MU beats WVU by 5-10 and loses to Louisville by 4. We get a 8,9,10 seed?

MU beats WVU by 5-10, then goes on to beat Louisville by 5-10. Would we move up to a 7 seed? Or do you think we would have to win on Saturday (against ND I believe) in order to get past an 8 seed. (as you can tell, i REALLY don't want an 8-9 seed!)

[Fullodds]

If you want to feel good about our chances, check out our 30 ranking on kenpom.com and see how many teams have more top 25 wins with no bad losses.

[NersEllenson]

You are one weird dude.  I'm a fan...why would I delete my account and miss talking about MU.  Maybe you should write a bunch of hate letters to ESPN for having the crazed rationale to say MU "should be in" (same as I said, but is not a 100% lock.  How dare they say that.   

I'd go so far as to say 98% chance we are in...hell, Lunardi is only saying 85%...what a anti-MU guy Lunardi must be.  What a negative Nancy he must be.  Why, I'll bet he hates Marquette and Buzz Williams especially.  We need to get him off the tv and the internets immediately.

Thank you for providing the cautionary tale.  I'm glad you felt the need to post such even with a 98% confidence that MU is in regardless of what it does against WVU.  Not surprised you wouldn't take the bet.

[Buzz Williams' Spillproof Chiclets Cup]

If everyone was a lock, what would ESPN talk about for the next 5 days?

This is as good a reason as any I've ever heard to expand the tournament to 96 teams or everybody. (only half-teal.)

[NersEllenson]

Let's remember many last year thought MU would be a 10 or 11 and were very surprised by the 6....if I recall correctly our RPI last year was somewhere in the ballpark of 50-60.  However, our Pomroy and Saragin were in the 25-30 range.

Though the committee does not REQUIRE the use of Saragin and Pomroy data, they do have it as a supplement.  Considering we are 30 in today's Pomroy...just don't see ANY WAY POSSIBLE we miss the tourney.  Think we may surprise again and get a higher seed than expected.  Win tonight and I could see us getting a 6 or 7.  Lose..probably an 8-10.

[muarmy81]

Let's remember many last year thought MU would be a 10 or 11 and were very surprised by the 6....if I recall correctly our RPI last year was somewhere in the ballpark of 50-60.  However, our Pomroy and Saragin were in the 25-30 range.

Though the committee does not REQUIRE the use of Saragin and Pomroy data, they do have it as a supplement.  Considering we are 30 in today's Pomroy...just don't see ANY WAY POSSIBLE we miss the tourney.  Think we may surprise again and get a higher seed than expected.  Win tonight and I could see us getting a 6 or 7.  Lose..probably an 8-10.

+1
spot on.

[JerryWizig]

Count me in the group that thinks MU isn't quite a lock but is probably going to get in.

The only thing that concerns me is that there is a ton of subjectivity that goes into this process, perhaps more than we realize. Sure they have a bunch of numbers in front of them, and most of those (except for RPI and number of losses) would seem to indicate that Marquette is about as close to a lock as you can be without being an actual lock.

But it seems that the committee changes its mind on what it values from year to year. I remember one year they were all about teams winning away from home. Another year it was schedule strength. Another year, it was how teams finished. Now they say they take the whole body of work into account.

My biggest fear is that you are going to have two or three committee members who will look at Marquette's 19-14 record (if they lose tonight) and say that a team like Missouri State, which won its conference in the regular season and didn't have the same opportunities Marquette did to rack up top 50 victories. Then a team like Minnesota or Penn State wins the Big 10 tournament, Colorado makes it to the Big 12 tournament final, Duquesne wins the A10, USC wins the Pac 10, someone other than Utah State wins the WAC, New Mexico wins the MWC and so on.

Unlikely? Of course. But still possible. That's why I don't think Marquette is an absolute lock.

If this team has taught us anything over the past two years, it's not to assume victory when victory looks likely. As long as there's time on the clock, there are many things that can happen, both good and bad.

[Knight Commission]

Let's remember many last year thought MU would be a 10 or 11 and were very surprised by the 6....if I recall correctly our RPI last year was somewhere in the ballpark of 50-60.  However, our Pomroy and Saragin were in the 25-30 range.

Though the committee does not REQUIRE the use of Saragin and Pomroy data, they do have it as a supplement.  Considering we are 30 in today's Pomroy...just don't see ANY WAY POSSIBLE we miss the tourney.  Think we may surprise again and get a higher seed than expected.  Win tonight and I could see us getting a 6 or 7.  Lose..probably an 8-10.

I think the surprise last year was partly do to the pod system and the fact we could not play another Big East team in the first two rounds. This year will be even more complicated with 11 teams, but unlike last year we will not be a recipient of a favorable seeding because we are likely the last or second to last Big East team in.

[Silkk the Shaka]

Let's remember many last year thought MU would be a 10 or 11 and were very surprised by the 6....if I recall correctly our RPI last year was somewhere in the ballpark of 50-60.  However, our Pomroy and Saragin were in the 25-30 range.

Though the committee does not REQUIRE the use of Saragin and Pomroy data, they do have it as a supplement.  Considering we are 30 in today's Pomroy...just don't see ANY WAY POSSIBLE we miss the tourney.  Think we may surprise again and get a higher seed than expected.  Win tonight and I could see us getting a 6 or 7.  Lose..probably an 8-10.

Last year's RPI was 50 , KenPom/Sagarin was about 29/30 on Selection Sunday.  We win tonight, our KenPom/Sagarin #'s take a slight bump into the high 20's and the RPI moves to the low 50's.  Clearly, we have regressed as a program.  11th seed in the Big East tournament proves it!  Context be damned!