DePaul beat UW-m tonight by 14 points

[MUfan12]

Interesting chart.

The Vandy game is massive. A win there and that projected RPI likely shoots up near the 30s.

[marquette99]

Once again I repeat, no big east or big 10 team has won by more than 4 points in a horizon gym in 4 years.  Wisconsin didn't quit when they LOST at uw-green bay last year, nor did wvu when they survived at csu last year.  Green bay and uwm were ranked virtually even last I checked, and we destroyed the team we got at home and survived on the road.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Once again I repeat, no big east or big 10 team has won by more than 4 points in a horizon gym in 4 years.  Wisconsin didn't quit when they LOST at uw-green bay last year, nor did wvu when they survived at csu last year.  Green bay and uwm were ranked virtually even last I checked, and we destroyed the team we got at home and survived on the road.

You can repeat it as often as you like, but it doesn't make you right.  Now maybe some of the games below weren't in "their" gym, but in each case they were the Horizon League team was the home team

2007-08, UW-Madison beat UW-milwaukee 61-39 at UW-milwaukee
2007-08, Ohio State beat Cleveland State 80-63 at Cleveland State
2007-08, DePaul beat Detroit 70-64 at Detroit
2007-08, Ohio State beat Butler 65-46 at Butler
2009-10, Ohio State beat Butler 74-66 at Butler
2010-11, Purdue beat Valparaiso 76-58 at Valpo

I get that these Horizon teams will make it their Super Bowl, we all get it.  That being said, the power teams have to understand that and play with the maturity and killer instinct that is needed.

[ChicosBailBonds]

1. If our RPI really dropped 49 spots because DePaul beat UWM it only shows that RPI rankings at this point in the year are TOTALLY MEANINGLESS, in which case why bother.
2. 180 translates into 3 or 4 wins in conference (max). If we're that bad, it's officially "wait until next year" time.

Our RPI dropped for a number of reasons, the UWM result was just one of them.

[dsfire]

The day-by-day numbers at http://www.teamrankings.com/ncb/rpi/ suggest that the drop had everything to do with our home loss to UW and UWM's loss had very little effect.

[BallBoy]

Love the rpiforecast.com website.

Our Current RPI has steadily dropped since December started .. from the 100s to 170s.

Our expected RPI is semi-steady in the high 60s.  Which is about right, and a very big challenge to make the NCAAs if that expected RPI is right.

Interestingly enough, our RPI dropped after playing Duke, Gonzaga and did not jump again until after we played UWM.
11/22 Duke
11/23 Gonzaga
11/27 MU hits low RPI of the year
11/27 UWM
11/28 MU jumps 50 points

[4everwarriors]

I hope not.  Dog fighting is illegal.  Have we learned nothing from Ron Mexico sorry, Michael Vick.

OK, then it'll be a bitchfest.

[Lennys Tap]

Interestingly enough, our RPI dropped after playing Duke, Gonzaga and did not jump again until after we played UWM.
11/22 Duke
11/23 Gonzaga
11/27 MU hits low RPI of the year
11/27 UWM
11/28 MU jumps 50 points

Our RPI spiked 50 spots higher because of the UWM game? Can we all finally agree that it's TOTALLY worthless at this point of the year and not talk about it until February?

[ChicosBailBonds]

The day-by-day numbers at http://www.teamrankings.com/ncb/rpi/ suggest that the drop had everything to do with our home loss to UW and UWM's loss had very little effect.

Correct...dropped 19 spots after the UW-madison loss.  Dropped another 7 spots after UW-milwaukee lost.  

To say it had "very little" I guess depends on your definition of very little.  We dropped 26 spots in 4 days.  It's impossible to isolate just those two games (UW-m vs DePaul and MU vs UW-madison) because the RPI factors in opponents opponents, etc.  This is why I said it's one of "many reasons" we dropped.  If one were to focus just on those two games, as you have with your claim that "the drop had everything to do with our home loss to UW" then the drop in 26 spots was 73% related to the UW-madison loss and 27% related to the UW-m loss to DePaul.  Is 27% "very little"?  

[dsfire]

Numbers are from beginning of day:
Saturday: Rank #148, raw RPI 0.515
Sunday: #169, 0.498

Tuesday: #171, 0.496
Wednesday: #176, 0.493

We dropped nearly the same amount of raw points from Sunday and Monday's games as we did from Tuesday's.  See whatever you'd like, but UWM losing at DePaul means very little to us now or at the end of the season.

[MerrittsMustache]

Numbers are from beginning of day:
Saturday: Rank #148, raw RPI 0.515
Sunday: #169, 0.498

Tuesday: #171, 0.496
Wednesday: #176, 0.493

We dropped nearly the same amount of raw points from Sunday and Monday's games as we did from Tuesday's.  See whatever you'd like, but UWM losing at DePaul means very little to us now or at the end of the season.

You should calculate numbers based on spots, not on actual RPI figures. For example, if MU went from #2 to #1, it would mean that they're twice as good.

[MU B2002]

If only there was a way to determine which team was better in some sort of head to head competition.

[BallBoy]

Correct...dropped 19 spots after the UW-madison loss.  Dropped another 7 spots after UW-milwaukee lost.  

To say it had "very little" I guess depends on your definition of very little.  We dropped 26 spots in 4 days.  It's impossible to isolate just those two games (UW-m vs DePaul and MU vs UW-madison) because the RPI factors in opponents opponents, etc.  This is why I said it's one of "many reasons" we dropped.  If one were to focus just on those two games, as you have with your claim that "the drop had everything to do with our home loss to UW" then the drop in 26 spots was 73% related to the UW-madison loss and 27% related to the UW-m loss to DePaul.  Is 27% "very little"?  

Chicos,

What you failed to realize that the RPI is not just based solely on what MU does or what MU's opponents do.  It is fluid based on how everyone else does and how their opponents do.  MU didn't drop solely because UWM lost to Depaul.  They dropped because they haven't played in a week while teams that are right around them have.  MU might have move .001 of a percent in either direction but the biggest jump always comes after the team plays someone.  This is especially true early.   The UWM lost to Depaul will be meaningless at the end of the season. 

[karavotsos]

Really don't understand how this chart provides any insight into anything.  This is the kind of crap that caused the financial crisis.

Also, I believe another poster has already requested to see our projected RPI for Feb. 24, 2015, and I second that request. 

[mu_hilltopper]

Really don't understand how this chart provides any insight into anything.  This is the kind of crap that caused the financial crisis.

Also, I believe another poster has already requested to see our projected RPI for Feb. 24, 2015, and I second that request. 

It is what it is, and I'm pretty sure everyone knows that.  It's a snapshot of very noisy data, based on 10 games of play, predicting out 20 games into the future. 

Each new game is a new data point, improving the forecast.  By the 30th game, it will be extremely accurate.  But there's a (declining) semblance of accuracy at 25, 20, 15, and yes, even 10 games.

While I don't think we are the 140th best team in the country, it would not surprise me in the least if we ended up around 60, as this chart predicts.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Chicos,

What you failed to realize that the RPI is not just based solely on what MU does or what MU's opponents do.  It is fluid based on how everyone else does and how their opponents do.  MU didn't drop solely because UWM lost to Depaul.  They dropped because they haven't played in a week while teams that are right around them have.  MU might have move .001 of a percent in either direction but the biggest jump always comes after the team plays someone.  This is especially true early.   The UWM lost to Depaul will be meaningless at the end of the season. 

Actually I didn't fail to realize it and even pointed it out.  I said clearly that the RPI factors in opponents records and the records of their opponents.  I also said there were MANY reasons for the drop, UWM losing to DePaul was just ONE of many.  At the end of the year, it will not be "meaningless", that would mean that it had 0 impact, which is not correct.  Every game played of one of our opponents has an impact on our RPI, so it is inaccurate to say it will be meaningless.

I would point you here to what I actually said.... http://www.muscoop.com/index.php?topic=22935.msg252637#msg252637

[Jay Bee]

Looking at the RPI on a daily or weekly basis at this point (and for the past several weeks) in the season is nearly worthless.  I would have to imagine that if someone was continuing to highlight our updated RPI, they must feel it is valuable and worthwhile information and I would invite them to explain to me (and to Jerry Palm - PS, still waiting for his number) where the value is.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/story/9907871

"you can't really take November or December RPI numbers seriously."  - Jerry Palm

[chren21]

Looking at the RPI on a daily or weekly basis at this point (and for the past several weeks) in the season is nearly worthless.  I would have to imagine that if someone was continuing to highlight our updated RPI, they must feel it is valuable and worthwhile information and I would invite them to explain to me (and to Jerry Palm - PS, still waiting for his number) where the value is.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/story/9907871

"you can't really take November or December RPI numbers seriously."  - Jerry Palm

Why is this so hard to understand?  It's meaningful now because it affects our future RPI... That simple.  

Do you just ignore it till a certain date and then all of a sudden it is meaningful?  What exactly is that date that the light goes on and the sea parts?  Selecation sunday?

[TheButlerDidIt]

RPI stops dropping once we beat winning teams...sounds simple enough to me. UWM's our best win to date?

[bamamarquettefan]

If we were in the A10 or Conference USA, this would be much more important.  In a small conference, your chances for the resume wins are in early season tournaments and road trips, so if you come out with close losses to Gonzaga, Duke and Wisconsin, you are almost out of chances to get the resume wins you need to make the tourney.

Fact is in the BCS conferences, you have lots of chances for signature wins in conference, and the committee wants to see how you are playing down the stretch much more than how you did in November (witness Gtown a couple of years ago with all those early season wins).

So it's not irrelevant, but it's just not much of factor.  While UWM is our best win so far, MU has played well enough to indicate we should beat some highly ranked Big East teams over the course of the season, and if we do we will be fine.

[Marquette84]

RPI stops dropping once we beat winning teams...sounds simple enough to me. UWM's our best win to date?

This is a common misconception.  

The RPI doesn't measure who we beat.  Only whether we beat them (and where the game is played) and what their (and their opponents') w/l record is.  

1.  Our W/L record (home wins count .6, road wins count 1.4 and vice versa)
2.  Our Opponents average W/L record
3.  Our Opponents' opponents average W/L record.

Nowhere does the rpi give you more "credit" for beating a good team.  

At the start of conference play, our RPI will rise because the average w/l record of our opponents will probably improve--not because of the quality of our wins.

[TheButlerDidIt]

The RPI doesn't measure who we beat.  Only whether we beat them (and where the game is played) and what their (and their opponents') w/l record is.  

1.  Our W/L record (home wins count .6, road wins count 1.4 and vice versa)
2.  Our Opponents average W/L record
3.  Our Opponents' opponents average W/L record.

You just contradicted yourself. So a win over 0-10 Centennary (where their win-loss record is clearly .000) won't get us any better of an RPI boost than against Vandy on the road? If better teams are beaten, RPI numbers are higher. Cincinnati's RPI is 89th in the nation and they are 10-0-they've also played scrubs at home. I am quite aware of how RPI works.

[TheButlerDidIt]

If we were in the A10 or Conference USA, this would be much more important.  In a small conference, your chances for the resume wins are in early season tournaments and road trips, so if you come out with close losses to Gonzaga, Duke and Wisconsin, you are almost out of chances to get the resume wins you need to make the tourney.

Fact is in the BCS conferences, you have lots of chances for signature wins in conference, and the committee wants to see how you are playing down the stretch much more than how you did in November (witness Gtown a couple of years ago with all those early season wins).

So it's not irrelevant, but it's just not much of factor.  While UWM is our best win so far, MU has played well enough to indicate we should beat some highly ranked Big East teams over the course of the season, and if we do we will be fine.

The committee still looks at OOC wins for BCS schools so that these schools don't rely solely on their conference schedule to take them to the tournament. I hate to beat a dead horse, but I'm using Cincy as an example again. Schools are rewarded for playing (and beating opponents in) aggressive OOC schedules. We've played some great opponents and hopefully can steal a win in Vandy. Otherwise we're left needing at least 11 wins in the Big East imo...

[Jay Bee]

Why is this so hard to understand?  It's meaningful now because it affects our future RPI... That simple.  

Do you just ignore it till a certain date and then all of a sudden it is meaningful?  What exactly is that date that the light goes on and the sea parts?  Selecation sunday?

It's not very meaningful now - it's nearly worthless - if you want to say, 'hey we won a game, that should help our RPI' that is fine.  What I said is, "Looking at the RPI on a daily or weekly basis at this point (and for the past several weeks) in the season is nearly worthless"... that simple.  The fact our RPI is x today is not very meaningful.  

I'm not sure what 'Selecation sunday' is, but if you mean 'starting around early February' then yes, then it becomes more appropriate.. and continues to become more relevant.  At this point in the year, a team can move 20 points in one day - a day they don't even play.  

Should RPI #12 Old Dominion (8-2) fans start booking their Sweet Sixteen hotels?  #17 Cleveland St. (10-1) appears to be a lock, don't you think?

If you really believe that the looking at the RPI on a daily basis currently is valuable, then I would ask you to prove it.  I have one source that says Marquette is currently at 183.  Since this is meaningful to you, I will offer you this: 5-1 odds, just 10 'bucks'... if Marquette's RPI is cut in half, I win, if not, you win with 5-1 odds.

So, if Marquette's year end RPI is 91 or lower, I get 10 bucks.  If it's 92 or higher, you win 50.  If 183 is truly a meaningful number, this looks like quite a deal for you.  If you don't like this bet, then can you explain what the meaning of 183 is to you?

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/writers/alexander_wolff/03/22/upsets/index.html

[Marquette84]

You just contradicted yourself. So a win over 0-10 Centennary (where their win-loss record is clearly .000) won't get us any better of an RPI boost than against Vandy on the road? If better teams are beaten, RPI numbers are higher. Cincinnati's RPI is 89th in the nation and they are 10-0-they've also played scrubs at home. I am quite aware of how RPI works.

In your scenario, the only difference is that the Centannary win counts as 0.6 because it was at home, and a Vanderbilt win would count as 1.4 because it is on the road--it has nothing to do with the relative strenghts of the two teams.

If the situation was reversed (say played Vandy at home, Centenary on the road), we would get 0.6 win for beating Vandy at home and 1.4 wins for beating Centenary on the road--even though Vandy is a better team.

Finally, the opponents SOS is factored in exactly the same, regardless of whether we win or lose.  We get more benefit for PLAYING Vandy than for Centennary.  But to the RPI a win is a win--the only thing that matters is whether it is at home or on the road.