Is Crean In Trouble?

[NersEllenson]

The posts by mudimitri and Ners lead me to wonder what was the biggest deficit that MU overcame last year before winning a game. Leads of 14, 11 and 15 were lost, but what was the biggest comeback that the team made? Does comparing leads lost vs. deficits overcome tell anything about the accusation of being gassed, or of an inability of Buzz to "get the most out of guys #7-10 on his roster" as mudimitri states?

I highly doubt a coach has varying degrees of ability to get the most out of a player, regardless of if they are players 1-5 or 6-13.  If we really examine last year's team our bench largely consisted of Buycks, Fulce, Erik Williams and Mbao - or players 6-9.  Considering that only Fulce and Erik Williams were the only 2 bench players who remained healthy to play in everygame - the analysis we should be making is, did Joe Fulce exceed our expectations?  Erik Williams?  I'd say Fulce exceeded expectations, Erik Williams, not so much.  Buycks had a decent year, but was hurt/sick down the stretch.  As I'd stated in an earlier post, Erik Williams minutes would only come from spelling Lazar and Jimmy - and Joe Fulce occupied that same role.  I'm sure buzz's feelings were that 80% (the fatigued versions) of Jimmy/Zar were better than what Erik Williams could bring as a freshman, as was 100% of what Joe Fulce could offer, in comparison to Erik.  Trying to state Buzz doesn't develop guys 7-10 on his bench, given the context of who 7-10 were (we didn't even really have a 10th player, and for the most part with Mbao being hurt we had 8) is ridiculous.  (And not to mention graspoing at straws to find a negative.)

[NersEllenson]

Well said and obvious to everyone but about 5 people.

Actually the ONLY 5 people who find 84's point "obvious" are:  Chicos, 84, Sultan, 2002MUAlum, and MUDimitri - it appears that outside of you 5, it isn't obvious to everyone else.

[mug644]

I highly doubt a coach has varying degrees of ability to get the most out of a player, regardless of if they are players 1-5 or 6-13.  If we really examine last year's team our bench largely consisted of Buycks, Fulce, Erik Williams and Mbao - or players 6-9.  

I'd go a bit further and say that it is wiser for a coach to focus on trying to get more out of players that are "higher on the playlist." I mean that virtually everyone thought at the beginning of last year Cubillan and Acker were questionable BEast players, but it was unavoidable (especially after Junior went down) that they would log a lot of minutes. So, if (and I'm not definitively saying this is the case) Buzz put more effort into their performance than he did into, say, EWill's development, it doesn't necessarily surprise me, nor does it disappoint me. The bottom line is that Buzz has had players in each of his 2 years step up beyond expectations--Wesley Matthews in his first year, then Mo, David and Jimmy (and I don't include the unknown of DJO) in year 2--and we must all be happy with that. While it is possible that EWill's development falls through the cracks with the potential of the incoming class, I'm willing to anticipate a significant gain on his part, due to both his effort and Buzz's (and the staff's).

That said, I remain curious about the largest deficit that last year's team overcame. Can anyone help?

[avid1010]

Was that supposed to be in teal?

Buzz, by a mile

Because MU was left with Zar and two undersized guards?  Everything else was all Buzz.  TC's recruits aren't doing anything close to what Butler, DJO and others are doing.  TC had some penalties to work under, but hey, it's IU and he had playing time to offer. 

[NersEllenson]

Buzz inherited three seniors that started pretty much all of last year.

It also should be noted that Crean recruited 2 JUCO's who were seniors last year - both in their 2nd year at IU - Devin Dumes and Tijan Jobe who produced a combined 7 points and 2.6 rebounds per game as seniors.  Interestingly enough, Dumes numbers regressed significantly as a senior:

JR Year at IU:   (27 games, 27.0 minutes, 12.7ppg, 2.9 rpg)
SR Year at IU:   (30 games, 17.8 minutes, 6.6ppg, 2.0rpg)

Quite the opposite of Jimmy Butler's numbers, also a late signing 2008 pick up, throw in DJO to the mix as a late signee in 2009, its clear to see why MU was a lot better than IU

It should also be noted Crean lost Nick Williams after a very productive freshman year to a transfer.  Crean also lost Jordan Crawford and Armon Bassett two top players brought in under Kelvin Sampson.  So to parallel his situation to the one Buzz faced lets say Crawford = Tyshawn Taylor, Bassett = Mbawke, Nick Williams = Jerrone Maymon (as Maymon was a Buzz guy that Buzz lost, and Williams was a Crean guy, that crean lost.).  Not to mention Nick Williams was supposed to come to MU, which left us that hole.

The reality is that the situations in year 2 really were not all that different...AND...IU is a Top 5 basketball brand/program to sell..which like it or not, is the reason Crean left MU - he saw it as a better program with a bigger national profile (and most college basketball fans would draw the same conclusions.)  This fact just makes the results up to this point reflect more poorly on Tom Crean, while illuminating the job Buzz Williams has done.  

[Golden Avalanche]

It also should be noted that Crean recruited 2 JUCO's who were seniors last year - both in their 2nd year at IU - Devin Dumes and Tijan Jobe who produced a combined 7 points and 2.6 rebounds per game as seniors.  Interestingly enough, Dumes numbers regressed significantly as a senior:

JR Year at IU:   (27 games, 27.0 minutes, 12.7ppg, 2.9 rpg)
SR Year at IU:   (30 games, 17.8 minutes, 6.6ppg, 2.0rpg)

Quite the opposite of Jimmy Butler's numbers, also a late signing 2008 pick up, throw in DJO to the mix as a late signee in 2009, its clear to see why MU was a lot better than IU

It should also be noted Crean lost Nick Williams after a very productive freshman year to a transfer.  Crean also lost Jordan Crawford and Armon Bassett two top players brought in under Kelvin Sampson.  So to parallel his situation to the one Buzz faced lets say Crawford = Tyshawn Taylor, Bassett = Mbawke, Nick Williams = Jerrone Maymon (as Maymon was a Buzz guy that Buzz lost, and Williams was a Crean guy, that crean lost.).  Not to mention Nick Williams was supposed to come to MU, which left us that hole.

The reality is that the situations in year 2 really were not all that different...AND...IU is a Top 5 basketball brand/program to sell..which like it or not, is the reason Crean left MU - he saw it as a better program with a bigger national profile (and most college basketball fans would draw the same conclusions.)  This fact just makes the results up to this point reflect more poorly on Tom Crean, while illuminating the job Buzz Williams has done.  

Wow. Just........wow. Some hearty bits of delusion as always.

At least the next two weeks will be filled with player movement so we don't experience laughable topics like this much longer.

[CrimsonNCrean]

It also should be noted that Crean recruited 2 JUCO's who were seniors last year - both in their 2nd year at IU - Devin Dumes and Tijan Jobe who produced a combined 7 points and 2.6 rebounds per game as seniors.  Interestingly enough, Dumes numbers regressed significantly as a senior:

JR Year at IU:   (27 games, 27.0 minutes, 12.7ppg, 2.9 rpg)
SR Year at IU:   (30 games, 17.8 minutes, 6.6ppg, 2.0rpg)

Quite the opposite of Jimmy Butler's numbers, also a late signing 2008 pick up, throw in DJO to the mix as a late signee in 2009, its clear to see why MU was a lot better than IU

It should also be noted Crean lost Nick Williams after a very productive freshman year to a transfer.  Crean also lost Jordan Crawford and Armon Bassett two top players brought in under Kelvin Sampson.  So to parallel his situation to the one Buzz faced lets say Crawford = Tyshawn Taylor, Bassett = Mbawke, Nick Williams = Jerrone Maymon (as Maymon was a Buzz guy that Buzz lost, and Williams was a Crean guy, that crean lost.).  Not to mention Nick Williams was supposed to come to MU, which left us that hole.

The reality is that the situations in year 2 really were not all that different...AND...IU is a Top 5 basketball brand/program to sell..which like it or not, is the reason Crean left MU - he saw it as a better program with a bigger national profile (and most college basketball fans would draw the same conclusions.)  This fact just makes the results up to this point reflect more poorly on Tom Crean, while illuminating the job Buzz Williams has done.  

Right On...

[ChicosBailBonds]

Because MU was left with Zar and two undersized guards?  Everything else was all Buzz.  TC's recruits aren't doing anything close to what Butler, DJO and others are doing.  TC had some penalties to work under, but hey, it's IU and he had playing time to offer. 

MU had an All Big East first team pre-season selection (Hayward).  IU, no players even close.

MU had a player that would earn Honorable Mention All Big East player (Butler). IU, maybe if their best player didn't blow out his leg before the Big Ten season started.

MU had Wisconsin High School player of the Year with Maymon (before transferring).  IU, no players that fit that bill.

MU had an All American JUCO first team in DJO.

I could go on.  One team had very good players coming back, the other team is still stacked with freshmen and sophomores, mostly, that they had to take flyers on just to fill a team.  Players, with the exception of 5 kids, probably should be in the MAC or lower but they needed warm bodies to compete.

That's why I asked if it was in teal.  There were posters here that picked MU for the NCAAs and were right.  There was not a person in America that picked IU for the NCAAs. 

I doubt you could find one expert, one computer poll, one ranking system anywhere in the universe that predicted IU would be better than MU last year and the reason was pretty simple, MU had a lot more raw material to work with than IU did.

Thus, I asked if the question was in teal.  Apparently, it wasn't.

[Ron Paul]

I will start this post by saying, I still appreciate everything Crean did for this program, including leaving and giving us Buzz.  We wouldn't be where we are today without him...not even close.

But the situation Crean finds himself in this coming year will be a better indicator of the kind of coach he is.  Chicos is right, he lost his best player early on, I'd hate to say it but if we had lost Lazar I think we would have been in a similar place.

[GGGG]

Right, Coobie and Acker are clearly BEAST starting guards???  Buzz got a ton out of those guys, far more than TC, and he'll never have players with the lack of natural talent those two did again.  

See, this is starting to get ridiculous.  Buzz inherited three seniors.  One was a three year starter, the other two were role players that stepped up due to injury when a spot opened above them.  They were good because Buzz coached them up sure...BUT HE STILL INHERITED THEM!!!!  

And I'm not even a TC guy!  But the leaps of logic that you TC-bashers take are almost laughable.

[GGGG]

Because MU was left with Zar and two undersized guards?  Everything else was all Buzz.  TC's recruits aren't doing anything close to what Butler, DJO and others are doing.  TC had some penalties to work under, but hey, it's IU and he had playing time to offer. 

Stop moving the goalposts.  The question was who was in a better situation heading into year two...TC or Buzz.  It wasn't who did a better coaching job.

[CrazyEcho]

I'm not sure why it matters who had more going into year two.  Relative to the talent they had in year two, Buzz overachieved and Crean underachieved (the way the team quit on him was embarrassing).  I think that speaks to who did the better job coaching.  

[Doctor V]

I'd go a bit further and say that it is wiser for a coach to focus on trying to get more out of players that are "higher on the playlist." I mean that virtually everyone thought at the beginning of last year Cubillan and Acker were questionable BEast players, but it was unavoidable (especially after Junior went down) that they would log a lot of minutes. So, if (and I'm not definitively saying this is the case) Buzz put more effort into their performance than he did into, say, EWill's development, it doesn't necessarily surprise me, nor does it disappoint me. The bottom line is that Buzz has had players in each of his 2 years step up beyond expectations--Wesley Matthews in his first year, then Mo, David and Jimmy (and I don't include the unknown of DJO) in year 2--and we must all be happy with that. While it is possible that EWill's development falls through the cracks with the potential of the incoming class, I'm willing to anticipate a significant gain on his part, due to both his effort and Buzz's (and the staff's).

That said, I remain curious about the largest deficit that last year's team overcame. Can anyone help?

I agree that it is more important, but believe me keeping players 7-10 on your team happy and productive is much more difficult than players 1-6. As an example, and this isnt a knock on Buzz because the kid had issues, Buzz couldn't manage to keep happy a freshman who was actually getting decent minutes because he wanted a bigger role... Many of these higher end recruits have lofty goals, and these are usually the guys that fall in the 6-10 range as frosh.

Now, with more higher end talent being recruited (Smith is considered like 10th on the depth chart by some and hes just outside the top 100) it will be even more difficult to keep all those guys happy. Don't forget, Buzz only had like 3-4 bench guys to worry about last year, but this season he is going to have to deal with players 7-12, a much tougher task. We will see how he does, but I stand by my statement that I feel he underutilized players 7-10 in both seasons, now it will definitely be a task to work with 7-12

To answer your question, most of the games MU won were those in which they led or were close throughout (in other words no big comeback wins) However, there was one huge comeback for MU, the game at Villanova where the team was down 52-30 (22 pts!) with 13:43 left and made an astonishing comeback to lose 78-76... The lack of depth didn't hurt there.
Also:
Providence was up 49-41 w/ 16:37 left in providence, MU won by 3
Cincy was up 46-38 w/ 17:34 left in cincy, MU by 3 in OT
St Johns was up 45-38 w/ 10:52 left in NY, MU by 2 in OT
Villanova was up 48-41 w/ 13:10 left @ the garden, MU by 4

So there were 2nd half deficits overcome by MU of 7-8 pts, and then the huge 22 pt deficit in Nove (amazing 2nd half, so much fun to watch).

However, as I previously posted there were many more double digit blown leads in the 2nd half- many that MU still pulled out to give that 8-8 record in games decided by 4pts or less that NERS likes to use as part of his undying defense of Buzz (numbers don't lie right)- but also some that resulted in losses. Also, there were those games that MU blew in the last few minutes with very winnable leads.

[Doctor V]

It is comedic that in your above example you reference 8 wins in close games, and olnly 6 losses.  Guess what, teams make runs in basketball games too - are you going to extoll the great coaching of Buzz to where he got his team into the above mentioned leads?  Probably not, nor would I be ridiculous enough to do so.  Basketball is a game of runs.  When you are under,manned, undersized, more than likely your 2nd half perfoermance will be less than your first half performance.  And yes, Buzz did say the guys were gassed after the Georgetown game in the big East tourney.  We'll see who looks like the idiot as the next 4 years move forward, but it sounds to me unless MU can dominate its opponent for all 40 minutes of a game, there will have been poor coaching to blame.  Armchair guys like you who can coach a team better than the guys getting paid millions to do so crack me up.  Lastly, sorry you took 30 minutes to write a rebuttal that falls flat on its face - must be drinking a little too much too often.

Really??
OK- I only left out the two Villanova games so here you go:
Villanova: Close throughout
@ Villanova: The game I just mentioned- down 22, amazing comeback, MU loses by 2

So in other words, 5 out of the 8 'close wins' and 6 of the 8 'close losses' were blown leads.

In the post above, I noted that there were 3 MU comeback wins (7-8 pt deficits in the 2nd half)- those are the other 3 close wins. There was also the big comeback at Nova, resulting in one of the close losses

The rest of your post is excuse ridden, which is typical, so I won't even discuss it. I also won't call you any names, because I have already been warned

The rest of the board can draw its own conclusions, but I just went ahead and did the research to prove to myself that I actually watched the games this season. I found that MU had 11 blown leads, and 4 comebacks (which I already figured to be the case based on my memory)

[Pakuni]

I'm not sure why it matters who had more going into year two.  Relative to the talent they had in year two, Buzz overachieved and Crean underachieved (the way the team quit on him was embarrassing).  I think that speaks to who did the better job coaching.  

[Marquette84]

  Once again 84 twists the issue - Nobody denies Year 1 under Buzz was set-up to be easy, or well stocked with talent.  Way to write a 12 paragraph rebuttal stating the freakin' obvious. 

It can't be THAT obvious, becuase you started a post with the words "I think some MU fans fail to realize how bad it was at MU after Crean" but didn't explain the situation.

I just wanted to post a few tangible examples of "how bad it was at MU" to remind those folks who you claim "fail to realize" the situation.

The centerpiece of your argument is that on the day Buzz took over, he only had ten returning players (4 seniors-to-be, 3 juniors, 3 sophs) and three recruits under LOI (2 frosh and a juco sophomore).

To say that Buzz working as an assistant at MU gave him a HUGE advantage in recruiting when he got the job in late April of 2008, is a joke. 

Lets compare to Keno Davis, for example.  While Buzz was on the road building ties with 2008, 2009, 2010 and even 2011 Big East-level recruits during the 2007-08 season, Keno Davis was building recruiting ties to Drake-level recruits.  

I don't think its "twisting" things or "a joke" to suggest that MU and Drake simply recruit at two different levels.

Therefore, I strongly believe that put Buzz at a HUGE advantage compared to Davis.  

Here's a tangible example:   I would suggest that the recruiting visits that Buzz paid to Tyler Junior College to recruit Joe Fulce for Tom Crean over the course of the 2007-08 season most certainly gave him a huge advantage when it came to the recruitment of his teammate Jimmy Butler.  Chances are strong that if Buzz had not already been recruiting at Tyler over the previous year, there would have been zero chance at landing Butler.

[GGGG]

I'm not sure why it matters who had more going into year two.  Relative to the talent they had in year two, Buzz overachieved and Crean underachieved (the way the team quit on him was embarrassing).  I think that speaks to who did the better job coaching.  

You are correct...but that's not what I am arguing.  I am countering Ners absurd suggestion that after year one, Buzz was in a worse position than TC.

[rocky_warrior]

MU had an All Big East first team pre-season selection (Hayward).  IU, no players even close.

True, and he was recruited by Crean, so props to Crean in that regards.

MU had a player that would earn Honorable Mention All Big East player (Butler). IU, maybe if their best player didn't blow out his leg before the Big Ten season started.

Recruited by Buzz, but Crean had the same amount of time to get a guy like this.  Why didn't he?  He's at IU...should be an easy sell.

MU had Wisconsin High School player of the Year with Maymon (before transferring).  IU, no players that fit that bill.

Recruited by Buzz, but Crean had the same amount of time to get a guy like this.  Why didn't he?  He's at IU...should be an easy sell.

MU had an All American JUCO first team in DJO.

Recruited by Buzz, but Crean had the same amount of time to get a guy like this.  Why didn't he?  He's at IU...should be an easy sell.

I could go on.  One team had very good players coming back, the other team is still stacked with freshmen and sophomores, mostly, that they had to take flyers on just to fill a team.  

So....based on the above...other than it not being possible to have a guy like Lazar (though, he could have had a guy like Crawford...), I don't see why Crean is still fumbling 3 years into the job...

[kmwtrucks]

I think that reason people are concerned is after they lost a few close games.  They lost 8 in a row by about 21 points on average before beating northwestern.  I Think Crean will be fine given time, but will IU give him the time?  recruiting class of 2011 is big for him. 

January 24 Iowa L 58-43 9-10 (3-4)
January 30 at Illinois L 72-70 9-11 (3-5)
February 4 No. 7 Purdue L 78-75 9-12 (3-6)
February 7 at Northwestern L 78-61 9-13 (3-7)
February 10 No. 16 Ohio State L 69-52 9-14 (3-8)
February 13 at No. 13 Wisconsin L 83-55 9-15 (3-9)
February 16 No. 11 Michigan State L 72-58 9-16 (3-10)
February 20 at Minnesota L 81-58 9-17 (3-11)
February 25 No. 19 Wisconsin L 78-46 9-18 (3-12)
February 28 at Iowa L 73-57 9-19 (3-13)
March 3 at No. 6 Purdue L 74-55 9-20 (3-14)
March 6 Northwestern W 88-80 10-20 (4-14)

[avid1010]

MU had an All Big East first team pre-season selection (Hayward).  IU, no players even close.

MU had a player that would earn Honorable Mention All Big East player (Butler). IU, maybe if their best player didn't blow out his leg before the Big Ten season started.

MU had Wisconsin High School player of the Year with Maymon (before transferring).  IU, no players that fit that bill.

MU had an All American JUCO first team in DJO.

I could go on.  One team had very good players coming back, the other team is still stacked with freshmen and sophomores, mostly, that they had to take flyers on just to fill a team.  Players, with the exception of 5 kids, probably should be in the MAC or lower but they needed warm bodies to compete.

That's why I asked if it was in teal.  There were posters here that picked MU for the NCAAs and were right.  There was not a person in America that picked IU for the NCAAs. 

I doubt you could find one expert, one computer poll, one ranking system anywhere in the universe that predicted IU would be better than MU last year and the reason was pretty simple, MU had a lot more raw material to work with than IU did.

Thus, I asked if the question was in teal.  Apparently, it wasn't.

I understand you asked if it was in teal, thanks for repeating it multiple times.

How do you type all of that and not realize that Buzz did all that with the exception of Zar.  Was your response supposed to be in teal?

[avid1010]

See, this is starting to get ridiculous.  Buzz inherited three seniors.  One was a three year starter, the other two were role players that stepped up due to injury when a spot opened above them.  They were good because Buzz coached them up sure...BUT HE STILL INHERITED THEM!!!!  

And I'm not even a TC guy!  But the leaps of logic that you TC-bashers take are almost laughable.

I liked TC when he was here...hated the way he left, but this has nothing to do with bias.  Buzz did inherit Acker and Coobie, and I see Buzz landing much better guards now and in the future.

Stop moving the goalposts.  The question was who was in a better situation heading into year two...TC or Buzz.  It wasn't who did a better coaching job.

Right, Buzz was in a better situation because he made it that way with the way he recruited and developed his players.  After losing the Big 3, MU had playing time to offer, just as IU did, and MU faired much better.  I'd say they were on pretty even ground after the first year, and Buzz has done more at MU than TC has done at IU.

[NersEllenson]

Wow. Just........wow. Some hearty bits of delusion as always.

At least the next two weeks will be filled with player movement so we don't experience laughable topics like this much longer.

Pretty lame rebuttal from you as always.  Discredit what I wrote.  If you want to argue that Mo and Cooby left Buzz alot to work with, consider they averaged 2.8 and 1.8ppg respectively as juniors.

[NersEllenson]

You are correct...but that's not what I am arguing.  I am countering Ners absurd suggestion that after year one, Buzz was in a worse position than TC.

Please go back and quote where I said Buzz was in a worse position than TC..I look forward to you not being able to do so.  No wonder you and 84 and Chicos all think alike - you completely fabricate and twist things I write..never said Buzz was in a worse position than TC, not once.

[Doctor V]

Pretty lame rebuttal from you as always.  Discredit what I wrote.  If you want to argue that Mo and Cooby left Buzz alot to work with, consider they averaged 2.8 and 1.8ppg respectively as juniors.

You ever wonder why? Perhaps because they were underutilized? Watching that team their Jr year you would have thought that neither of those two guys knew how to play one lick of basketball, which proved to be incorrect. I understand we had the Big 3, but you need to understand that the Big 3 didn't need to average 35+ mpg, especially in blowouts, with guys like acker and cubillan on the bench- Cubillan averaged 9.5mpg and Acker 16.2mpg (inflated because of DJames injury). Again, guys 7-10 on the roster...

[ChicosBailBonds]

See, this is starting to get ridiculous.  Buzz inherited three seniors.  One was a three year starter, the other two were role players that stepped up due to injury when a spot opened above them.  They were good because Buzz coached them up sure...BUT HE STILL INHERITED THEM!!!!  

And I'm not even a TC guy!  But the leaps of logic that you TC-bashers take are almost laughable.

It's not even laughable, it's absurd but hatred can really get the best of reason.