NL Central Pissing Match - 2010

[Hards Alumni]

I am totally happy with this trade.

[MUBurrow]

I really fell in love with Cain after his end of the year last year, but the thought must have been that he wasn't going to be dramatically better than gomez last year, and we have Kentrail Davis coming through the system in a year or two to mitigate that loss.  Escobar will be a good player, but has lost some luster over the past year and a half.  I'm sad to see him go, especially when the obvious replacement is yuniesky betancourt. yuck.  Its also sad to see the pitching go, but this was clearly the move of a GM that knew he had to do something.  This buys Melvin at least until Greinke and Marcum's deals run out.  Overall I like the deal.  It makes the Crew the arguable favorite in the central and barring a Greinke collapse, it gives the crew a bargaining chip to hopefully lure a decent hitter to replace Fielder.

[copious1218]

Opening day starting 5 of Gallardo, Greinke, Marcum, Wolf, Narveson.  I don't pause to say that is now easily the best rotation in the NL central.

The crews rotation is "easily" better than the cards?

[MUBurrow]

its pretty close; i think that the crew's will prove better by the end of the year though.  If you call Yo & Greinke vs Carpenter & Wainwright roughly a wash, youre left with Marcum, Wolf, Narveson v. Garcia, Westbrook, Lohse. I think Garcia regresses this year, so the Brewers win at the 3 by a fairly substantial margin.   westbrook v. wolf is roughly a wash, westbrook would have to improve to beat wolf out.  Narveson v. Lohse, who the hell knows.

[Blackhat]

Looks like Melvin was told he better go all in.

Really like his moves so far.  Gave up a lot of prospects but Melvin has always been able to put together pretty good hitting.

It'll be interesting to see if they're done or if he's going to reshape the bullpen too.

[MUBurrow]

assuming the Crew will keep Fielder now (hard to see them dealing him with the chances to compete this season) not a lot of clear options at 1B come next offseason.  the thought was that maybe he got dealt for a built in replacement like the rumors with Loney, but the drop off in offense wont be worth the rebuilding now. just try to compete this season and then use the picks to start restocking the farm.  
but whereas there were some nice middling options at 1B available this year (Pena, Laroche, Lee) next year will be quite a bit more shallow.  Beyond Prince, the list is Pena again (who will either be crappy and not worth it or expensive if he bounces back in chi) Swisher (will be fairly expensive but Yanks might decline his option) Jason Kubel could probably play first and Michael Cuddyer. I'm guessing Gamel is always an option too.
I know its early, but excited with these SPs under contract for two years, and would want to compete for those two years.  

Edited to add Kubel, especially since the Twins wont likely resign them both.

[MerrittsMustache]

The Brewers gave up quite a bit for a pitcher who had worse numbers than Carlos Zambrano in 2010 and whose career numbers compare favorably with the likes of Joe Magrane, Atlee Hammaker and Ismael Valdez.

That being said, the Brewers are definitely going all-in this season. The NL Central is down and could be theirs for the taking...although I still think that the StL and Cincy are better top to bottom.

And I'm hopeful that my beloved Cubs can finish ahead of Houston and Pittsburgh.

[Aughnanure]

The Brewers gave up quite a bit for a pitcher who had worse numbers than Carlos Zambrano in 2010 and whose career numbers compare favorably with the likes of Joe Magrane, Atlee Hammaker and Ismael Valdez.

That being said, the Brewers are definitely going all-in this season. The NL Central is down and could be theirs for the taking...although I still think that the StL and Cincy are better top to bottom.

And I'm hopeful that my beloved Cubs can finish ahead of Houston and Pittsburgh.

Don't read in too much into last year's numbers. Greinke, admittedly, gets bored at times during the season when he has nothing to pitch for. On the Royals, he constantly lost games while only giving up 1-3 runs over 7+ innings. If the Brewers are contending, he will dominant.

[reinko]

The Brewers gave up quite a bit for a pitcher who had worse numbers than Carlos Zambrano in 2010 and whose career numbers compare favorably with the likes of Joe Magrane, Atlee Hammaker and Ismael Valdez.

That being said, the Brewers are definitely going all-in this season. The NL Central is down and could be theirs for the taking...although I still think that the StL and Cincy are better top to bottom.

And I'm hopeful that my beloved Cubs can finish ahead of Houston and Pittsburgh.

False.

Greinke had a lower WHIP and less total # of walks, despite pitching nearly 100 more innings.  Obviously, he had more K's because of that extra work, as well as 3 CG.

[MerrittsMustache]

Don't read in too much into last year's numbers. Greinke, admittedly, gets bored at times during the season when he has nothing to pitch for. On the Royals, he constantly lost games while only giving up 1-3 runs over 7+ innings. If the Brewers are contending, he will dominant.

Only 2 of Greinke's 14 losses in '10 came when he pitched 7+ innings and gave up 3 or fewer runs, and in one of those games he gave up 4 runs but only 3 were earned.

I should mention that I'm not trying to knock the guy and I applaud the Brewers for improving on a weakness and going for it this season. At least they have a plan unlike the Cubs.

[MerrittsMustache]

False.

Greinke had a lower WHIP and less total # of walks, despite pitching nearly 100 more innings.  Obviously, he had more K's because of that extra work, as well as 3 CG.

Z had more wins, fewer losses, a significantly lower ERA (3.33 vs. 4.17), better K/9 numbers (8.12 vs. 7.41) and a better BAA (.246 vs .260). If you want to get into real stat-nerd numbers, Z also had a slightly better WAR (2.7 vs. 2.4).

I'm not saying Zambrano is better than Greinke and I realize that Z pitched out of the pen in almost half his appearances last year and I'm sure you could find other numbers that favor Greinke. I just think it will be interesting to see if the '09 or '10 Greinke shows up to play next season because many of the Brewers fans I've talked to seem to think they just landed Greg Maddux in his prime.

[reinko]

Z had more wins, fewer losses, a significantly lower ERA (3.33 vs. 4.17), better K/9 numbers (8.12 vs. 7.41) and a better BAA (.246 vs .260). If you want to get into real stat-nerd numbers, Z also had a slightly better WAR (2.7 vs. 2.4).

I'm not saying Zambrano is better than Greinke and I realize that Z pitched out of the pen in almost half his appearances last year and I'm sure you could find other numbers that favor Greinke. I just think it will be interesting to see if the '09 or '10 Greinke shows up to play next season because many of the Brewers fans I've talked to seem to think they just landed Greg Maddux in his prime.

Where did you get your WAR stat?  I got Greinke at 5.2 according to fangraphs.

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1943&position=P

[MerrittsMustache]

Where did you get your WAR stat?  I got Greinke at 5.2 according to fangraphs.

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1943&position=P

I got 2.4 from Baseball Reference...

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/greinza01.shtml

[wadesworld]

Greinke also pitched in the AL compared to Zambrano in the NL.  And he is 2 years removed from winning a Cy Young Award on one of the worst teams in the MLB.  Beyond that, like Braun was quoted as saying, I don't think it really matters how he (Braun was talking about the Brewers as a whole, not just Greinke) stacks up against other pitchers, what matters is that the Brewers are making moves to improve, and they improved a lot.  So no, he's probably not the best pitcher in the NL (although if he goes back to his form 2 years ago he may be), but he sure as heck improves the Brewers rotation.  Comparing the Opening Day rotation from last year to this year, it goes like this:

2010
#1 starter: Yo (borderline #1/really good #2)
#2 starter: Randy Wolf (borderline #4/#5 guy)
#3 starter: Doug Davis (OK #5 guy)
#4 starter: Dave Bush (should never be a starter)
#5 starter: Jeff Suppan (terrible)

2011
#1 starter: Greinke (legit #1)
#2 starter: Yo (borderline #1/really good #2)
#3 starter: Marcum (legit #2 starter at the #3 spot)
#4 starter: Randy Wolf (borderline #4/#5 guy)
#5 starter: Chris Narveson (hopefully a good #5)

With this rotation and a core offensive group of Braun, Fielder, Weeks, Hart, and McGehee this makes us legitimate NL Central contenders.  I personally think it comes down to the Reds and the Brewers, with the Cardinals possibly staying in it.

It'll come down to what we get out of Cargo, what we get at the catcher spot, and what we can do at shortstop.  Cargo doesn't need to be a stud, he just needs to play good defense and use his speed on the basepaths.  I liked what Lucroy brings, but it will come down to who can run the pitching staff the best...that's all we need out of the catcher.  Shortstop who knows.

It will also be interesting to see what happens with the bullpen, with Braddock as a setup man and Axford as the closer, that's a solid start.  Cameron Loe and Manny Parra could be good out of the bullpen (although if Narveson isn't pitching well as a starter I would hope these are the 2 that they would replace him with).  Mark Rogers could also be in the group with Parra and Loe.  Those three are all question marks though, and beyond that who knows what it will be.

[TallTitan34]

I like the Marcum pickup but I think you gave up too much for Greinke. 

[🏀]

I view this as a move Melvin made to save his job, but will doom his future.

The Brewers were looking to get 3-4 LEGIT prospects for Prince Fielder. The Yankees are going to be desperate to compete with the Red Sox after failing in the Hot Stove. This scared me, the Brewers would have the best or second best farm with loads of young talent which should translate into multi-year success, much like the Twins have established with their farm system.

Why would you trade your #1 prospect, your soon to be #1 prospect in Cain, and your #1 & #3 pitching prospects for a two-year rental? The Brewers are not in a position overall to dominate the NL Central with their lineup. The Reds have a better lineup and the Cards will always be competing. Not to mention, no team from the NL will even compete with the 100+ wins the Phillies will put up this year.

It's not like the Brewers are missing one dominate SP, plenty of holes out here.

[Hards Alumni]

I view this as a move Melvin made to save his job, but will doom his future.

The Brewers were looking to get 3-4 LEGIT prospects for Prince Fielder. The Yankees are going to be desperate to compete with the Red Sox after failing in the Hot Stove. This scared me, the Brewers would have the best or second best farm with loads of young talent which should translate into multi-year success, much like the Twins have established with their farm system.

Why would you trade your #1 prospect, your soon to be #1 prospect in Cain, and your #1 & #3 pitching prospects for a two-year rental? The Brewers are not in a position overall to dominate the NL Central with their lineup. The Reds have a better lineup and the Cards will always be competing. Not to mention, no team from the NL will even compete with the 100+ wins the Phillies will put up this year.

It's not like the Brewers are missing one dominate SP, plenty of holes out here.

The Brewers would never expect to get 3-4 legit prospects... you can't be serious.  Simply being a Scott Boras client lowers a players trade value since he almost always takes his clients to free agency.  If the Brewers wanted any value for Prince they would have traded him the off season after the playoff run.

Also, last I checked 100+ games doesn't gaurantee a playoff series victory.  Getting into the playoffs is more than half the battle... once you are there, anything can happen.

[TallTitan34]

The Brewers would never expect to get 3-4 legit prospects... you can't be serious. 

I thought it was well known the Brewers were asking for 3 or 4 legit prospects.  That's why there hasn't been a deal.

[🏀]

The Brewers would never expect to get 3-4 legit prospects... you can't be serious.  Simply being a Scott Boras client lowers a players trade value since he almost always takes his clients to free agency.  If the Brewers wanted any value for Prince they would have traded him the off season after the playoff run.

Also, last I checked 100+ games doesn't gaurantee a playoff series victory.  Getting into the playoffs is more than half the battle... once you are there, anything can happen.

I think the Royals never expected 4 legit prospects for Grenike either.

100+ games won't give you a playoff series, but the best team usually wins. Any team that gets to throw Halladay, Lee, & Hamels/Oswalt in the playoffs has the best chance to be the best team.

[🏀]

I thought it was well known the Brewers were asking for 3 or 4 legit prospects.  That's why there hasn't been a deal.

Exactly. With the Yankees looking up at the Red Sox's roster right now, they'll be getting squirrley.

[MerrittsMustache]

I thought it was well known the Brewers were asking for 3 or 4 legit prospects.  That's why there hasn't been a deal.

There are also reports that teams are leery of trading for, and then giving a big extension to, a guy with Prince's, um, body type. GMs just don't trust that $100M over 5-6 years isn't going to make him fat(ter) and happy.

[🏀]

There are also reports that teams are leery of trading for, and then giving a big extension to, a guy with Prince's, um, body type. GMs just don't trust that $100M over 5-6 years isn't going to make him fat(ter) and happy.

[TallTitan34]

I remember when Cecil got thrown out at first base on a base hit to right field.  It was a turf field but I forgot where it was.  Skydome maybe?

[NavinRJohnson]

This scared me, the Brewers would have the best or second best farm with loads of young talent which should translate into multi-year success, much like the Twins have established with their farm system.

The Brewers have been described in this way for the better part of 10 years. Prospects are just that, prospects, and the majority of them never enjoy any significant MLB success. The only time they had any real success was when they gave up significant prospects to acquire CC Sabathia. Say what you want about the Twins, but they haven't ever won anything, They are good enough to come out on top of the AL central 50% of the time or so, but once they get into the playoffs, those prospects turned major leaguers simply aren't good enough. BTW, let's not pretend they are entirely homegrown anyway. Carl Pavano, J.J. Hardy, Delmon Young, Jim Thome, Orlando Hudson, Delmon Young...these are not products of the farm system. The core is obvious, but the Brewers core of guys has nt been sacrificed in this deal Beyond that, if it doesn't work out, they still will have the option of trading Fielder and.pr Grienke to get those peices back (and be bad again like last year). The Brewers have been concerned about the future for too long. Maintaining that mindset while they have a chance with Fielder, Braun, etc. is likely to get them to the same place they have been.

That said, make no mistake about it, this is not a deal that Doug Melvin made. Sure, he may have assembled the final pieces, but just like the Sabathia trade, Mark Attanasio pulled the trigger on this one. Doug's future is secure.

 

[🏀]

Say what you want about the Twins, but they haven't ever won anything

Really? I know 28 major league teams that would kill for their success.