NL Central Pissing Match - 2010

[DavantesInferno]

they just aren't as talented - yet.

'Yet' is the key word here.  With the Edmonds trade and Aroldis Chapman coming up for relief (hopefully) the Reds should start playing like a serious contender in late August and through September.  Until then, they just have to win games in one of the easiest second half schedules in the major leagues...

[MUBurrow]

Bringing up an old thread for hot stove talk - err Brewers rant.
Yesterday the Brewers traded Carlos Villanueva to Toronto for a player to be named.
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2010/12/brewers-trade-carlos-villanueva.html
Today, news is coming out that Mark Reynolds is available for two relievers: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2010/12/mark-re.html

So on a team with questions at both corner infield spots (McGehee's knees & being due a raise anyway and Fielder being dealt) you essentially gave away one half of a deal that could have brought in one of baseball's most promising 3B?
 - Looking at the stats, Reynolds reputation as a liability at avg and obp are overrated.  Granted he hit under .200 last year and has struck out more than 200 times the past three years. BUT looking at his peripheral stats, he took more walks than Adam Dunn (who is prized for his OBP) last year in less at bats.  Further, he only struck out 12 more times than Dunn. Reynold's batting average in balls in play last year was an incredibly low .257 making him a remarkable bounceback candidate.
 - Reynolds & Dunn's power numbers have been very comparable over the past two years.
 - Comparing contracts, Dunn just signed a 4yr deal with the White Sox worth $56 million. Reynolds on the other hand, is owed $5 million next year, $7.5 million the year after, and has a team option worth $11 million the final year.  Given his age and promise this is remarkably cheap by comparison.
So did Melvin even look into this before moving Villanueva for a sack of magic beans?

[shiloh26]

I think that info on Reynolds is intriguing. I just assumed he was a hacker, but if he walks like Dunn, with the same sort of power, he's practically just a cheaper version. 

In other hot stove (err Brewers) news, Brewers traded for Shaun Marcum from the Blue Jays.  Initial reports were that it was for pitching prospects, but it looks like it was straight up for Brett Lawrie, the Brewers top minor league prospect. 

Marcum wont be a free agent for 2 more years, and was paid 850,000 last year.  He missed 2009 with Tommy John, but put up very similar numbers in 2008 and 2010.  In the AL East he was good for a ~3.5 era with a WHIP ~1.15 in '08 and '10.  One expects that would even improve in the NL Central, but to a Brewers fan, sub 4 ERA sounds pretty good all by itself.  His ERA in the AL East last year was better than any Brewers starter.

One possible problem might be durability... he's never logged over 200 IP, so he's not a tremendous inning eater, but he should be able to really help out the team immediately. 

If we did in fact give up Lawrie, I'm pretty bummed, but at least it was for a very solid starting pitcher, under team control on the cheaps for another couple of years.  With the dearth of young stud pitching prospects out there, I think its a pretty deft move to take care of the pitching problem. Not a "long term" solution, but its no Randy Wolf or Jeff Suppan garbage contract. 

Situation where I really like this: Melvin knows he's not getting good value in return for Prince, so he trades for a good pitcher who might the missing #2 starter we've never had.  Production out of Prince, Rickie, Hart, and Braun from 2 years ago miiiiiiight just make this a borderline playoff team.  I know its a stretch. Let me be happy.

Situation where I don't like this: Might have been able to package Lawrie for a little more, but you really can't complain about someone with those numbers for that price for multiple years. 

[Hards Alumni]

Looks like I am starting up my "Fire Doug Melvin" campaign early this year.

Hate this trade.

[GOMU1104]

Really like this move.

The Brewers need arms in the worst way, and Marcum will definitely make there rotation stronger. He should benefit from moving from the AL East to the NL Central.

Lawrie wasnt that close to the major leagues, not really sweating the loss there.

Weeks will be the Brewers 2B for awhile.

[Hards Alumni]

Really like this move.

The Brewers need arms in the worst way, and Marcum will definitely make there rotation stronger. He should benefit from moving from the AL East to the NL Central.

Lawrie wasnt that close to the major leagues, not really sweating the loss there.

Weeks will be the Brewers 2B for awhile.

I feel like we are getting 'just another arm'... that is 29, and has a TJ on it, and only for 2 years.

[GOMU1104]

The way the market for pitching is this year...it is either do something like this, or seriously overpay for Carl Pavano.

[Hards Alumni]

The way the market for pitching is this year...it is either do something like this, or seriously overpay for Carl Pavano.

Oh, I understand.  There is nothing out there.  I am just not sure that giving up on a pretty good looking bat is worth 2 years. 

My problem is, I don't see the Brewers making any sort of run in the next 2 or 3 years... and so I don't see the point in dealing our best minor leaguer.  It just seems like they are trying to keep their heads above water, and keep some fans coming to games.

Didn't you like Randy Wolf too? :-)

[shiloh26]

I feel like we are getting 'just another arm'... that is 29, and has a TJ on it, and only for 2 years.

Its a fan's job to be pessimistic about it: The Blue Jays fan boards are stunned and appalled they gave Marcum up. He was their #1 starter after Halladay left.

http://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2010/12/5/1857672/shaun-marcum-traded-to-the-brewers

Tommy John is not that big of a deal.  I don't know why people still think that its some kind of career ending thing or ticking time bomb.  

Signing Brandon McCarthy or some other FA starter not named Cliff Lee would have been "just another arm."  Marcum has undeniable production his last 2 full years.  Happier with this than paying a guy like Carl Pavano.  We'll end up seeing what we lost in Lawrie, but for now, I think its hard not to like the trade.  

[GOMU1104]

Oh, I understand.  There is nothing out there.  I am just not sure that giving up on a pretty good looking bat is worth 2 years. 

My problem is, I don't see the Brewers making any sort of run in the next 2 or 3 years... and so I don't see the point in dealing our best minor leaguer.  It just seems like they are trying to keep their heads above water, and keep some fans coming to games.

Didn't you like Randy Wolf too? :-)

They have a chance to do something with a better rotation.

I actually hated the Wolf signing.  I wish I would have put it on paper somewhere...He was coming off the best season of his career, one in which he was pitching for a contract...and he was coming off a year where he got to pitch in several pitcher friendly ballparks which inflated his numbers.  He finished the 2010 season strong, so hopefully that will carry over.

[Hards Alumni]

Its a fan's job to be pessimistic about it: The Blue Jays fan boards are stunned and appalled they gave Marcum up. He was their #1 starter after Halladay left.

http://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2010/12/5/1857672/shaun-marcum-traded-to-the-brewers

Tommy John is not that big of a deal.  I don't know why people still think that its some kind of career ending thing or ticking time bomb.   

Signing Brandon McCarthy or some other FA starter not named Cliff Lee would have been "just another arm."  Marcum has undeniable production his last 2 full years.  Happier with this than paying a guy like Carl Pavano.  We'll end up seeing what we lost in Lawrie, but for now, I think its hard not to like the trade. 

I realize that half of this is me... probably more than half.  I will probably never be happy until we can get 3 solid starters, and 2 guys who can go at least 6 innings. 

Which means I will probably never be happy

[shiloh26]

I realize that half of this is me... probably more than half.  I will probably never be happy until we can get 3 solid starters, and 2 guys who can go at least 6 innings. 

Which means I will probably never be happy

I'm with your concerns... I don't think this is a move that puts us in contention or anything, but 2 years left on the contract leaves some room for negotiating something a little longer term perhaps.  I do think he can be a solid player. Established pitching with little downside is hard to come by at this price.

That's really why I like it so much. For how much he is getting paid, hes a great player.

[shiloh26]

For what its worth, Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports tweeted that one of the reasons the Brewers were okay with parting with Lawrie is they think they can sign Marcum to a longer deal.  The Blue Jays were already in talks with Marcum about a 3 year deal.  That would be about perfect for a then 31 year old pitcher. 

https://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal/status/11648712132526080

https://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal/status/11648990403624962

[MUBurrow]

an extension on Marcum would be great. barring that, I'm okay with the deal so long as that Marcum is a type A once he becomes a free agent.  that means that he would have had to play well enough for the crew to get some good pitching out of the deal and the pick should really help make up for losing Lawrie. (I know this is projecting incredibly far, but its just hard to compare what kind of player Lawrie is).  If Marcum pitches like he did last year, he also might be looking at a 3.00-3.25ish, which would be incredible for a Brewers pitcher. I think we've only had two guys start and finish the season and do that for us in the past forever.

[reinko]

Seems from fan commnets, at least those on ESPN.com, that Jays fans are are either pissed or puzzled.  So as a Brewers fan, I think this is a winner.

Keep in mind, he is going from the toughest division in baseball, to arguably the worst.  Last year posted a 13-8, 1.1 WHIP, and 2.0/BB per 9.  Thank the Christ, someone that can just throw strikes.

[drewm88]

Rumors of Prince to L.A. for Loney and Broxton:
http://sports.espn.go.com/los-angeles/mlb/news/story?id=5892211

[cheebs09]

Rumors of Prince to L.A. for Loney and Broxton:
http://sports.espn.go.com/los-angeles/mlb/news/story?id=5892211

I hope this is a cruel joke. I don't see how that helps the Brewers at all. If that's the best out there, then take the draft picks at the end of the year.

[MUBurrow]

agreed. the contracts arent even great on these guys.  Loney is due a raise in arbitration off a $3mm+ deal, and Broxton is a performance question mark and isnt cheap besides.  the only way this helps is if Broxton pitches to A status and gives the Brewers a high compensatory pick when he leaves. but this is unlikely if he doesnt close.  i do like the Brewers idea of approaching a team with a built in replacement though (Loney) provided the rest of the pieces of solid.

[mu-rara]

agreed. the contracts arent even great on these guys.  Loney is due a raise in arbitration off a $3mm+ deal, and Broxton is a performance question mark and isnt cheap besides.  the only way this helps is if Broxton pitches to A status and gives the Brewers a high compensatory pick when he leaves. but this is unlikely if he doesnt close.  i do like the Brewers idea of approaching a team with a built in replacement though (Loney) provided the rest of the pieces of solid.

Amen, Ask any fantasy owner who had him last year.

[MUBurrow]

brewers discussing a three year deal with carl pavano.  say it aint so... they were doing so well too.

[NCAARules]

brewers discussing a three year deal with carl pavano.  say it aint so... they were doing so well too.

+1,000,000,000,000,000

Really liked the Marcum move. Signing Pavano for anything more than one year on the cheap would just negate it. Would really like to know what Garza is costing. Read tonight that the Chubs are getting serious about him.

[MUBurrow]

definitely would have liked to have been a fly on the wall in those discussions.  media really seemed to think the Garza deal might happen, because trading them Cain would have allowed them to move B.J. Upton, who they are sick of.  i think that the Brewers inability to get Garza or Greinke really shows that they have big plans for Lorenzo Cain in center.  this, at least is reassuring.  makes me wonder what it would take to get Ricky Nolasco, who has been in trade discussions.

side note: why would you not better the Pirates offer for Kevin Correia (2yr, $8mm) only to sign Jeff Suppan 2.0 for a projected 3yr, $33mm!?! I have been a huge Correia advocate for some time now, but the difference in output for investment just doesn't make sense to me.  The only thing I can come up with is Pavano's reputation as an innings eater, which is the huge buzzword of the minute when it comes to spending on SP. 

[Jay Bee]

I hope you guys stay away from Hot Carl.  The Twins like him.  He was solid this year.

[shiloh26]

So much for those big plans for Cain...Brewers reportedly trading Cain, Escobar, Odorrizzi (pitching prospect) and Jeffress (pitching prospect) for Grienke, and supposedly Yuniesky Betencourt.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=5935586

I honestly can't believe we picked up Greinke without Lawrie. I'm more than a little concerned about the fact that the farm is now entirely sold, but wow. Can't blame Melvin for not being aggressive. Opening day starting 5 of Gallardo, Greinke, Marcum, Wolf, Narveson.  I don't pause to say that is now easily the best rotation in the NL central.

I'm scared how this team will look in 3 years, but holy crap, they could actually be good next year.

[shiloh26]

Although, I should note, we did give up 2 opening day lineup starters, and two pretty darn good defensive players (I know Escobar had a rough year with errors, but he gets to EVERYTHING at short).  From what I've heard Escobar has had a terrible winter league performance, batting below .230, which probably is what prompted the Brewers to feel comfortable dealing him.  Can't say I'm excited about starting Yuniesky Betancourt at SS full time, and Carlos Gomez in center full time, but Greinke is probably worth it if Escobar doesn't turn into the player we thought he would 2 years ago.