Make More FTs than the Other Team Attempts Analysis

[krocheck]

I recall from last season, as I'm sure most of you do, that one of Buzz's keys to winning is for Marquette to make more free throws then the other team attempts.  I haven't heard that out of him much this year, but it's hard for me to believe he hasn't mentioned it at all OR that he doesn't emphasize it to the team.

Regardless, what I want to do is examine this notion and see if it does actually directly contribute to wins and losses the way Buzz preaches.  I pulled up the box scores for each Big East game this season.  In one column I check if MU did beat out its opponent in this manner.  The next I examine if that accurately reflects the outcome of the game.  Finally, I adjust for cases where the team did not meet the goal but still won.  For the purposes of this examination, a tie always accurately reflects the outcome.

Team	Result	MU FT	Opp FT	Met Goal	Exp. Outcome	Adj. Outcome
WVU	L	8-12	3-4	Yes	No	No
VILL	L	21-26	15-22	No	Yes	Yes
GTWN	W	8-9	11-13	No	No	Yes
VILL	L	19-25	15-19	--	Yes	Yes
PROV	W	10-14	16-21	No	No	Yes
DEP	L	12-17	3-7	Yes	No	No
SYR	L	9-13	13-19	No	Yes	Yes
RUTG	W	11-16	6-8	Yes	Yes	Yes
CONN	W	13-18	17-24	No	No	Yes
DEP	W	36-44	19-29	Yes	Yes	Yes
PROV	W	11-15	9-15	No	No	Yes
USF	W	13-20	4-6	Yes	Yes	Yes
PITT	L	4-9	8-12	No	Yes	Yes
CIN	W	16-17	8-16	--	Yes	Yes
SJU	W	16-21	11-13	Yes	Yes	Yes
HALL	W	19-25	9-13	Yes	Yes	Yes
LOU	W	18-22	1-2	Yes	Yes	Yes
ND	L	12-14	20-25	No	Yes	Yes
SJU	W	5-10	2-5	--	Yes	Yes
VILL	W	19-24	13-18	Yes	Yes	Yes
	13-7	75.5%	69.8%	9-8-3	14-6	18-2
		280-371	203-291

For only two of six losses (33%) did we score more free throws than the other team attempted yet still loose.  I would say he is pretty accurate with that being a key to success and how, especially, it can contribute to a loss.  The other interesting part of this for me is that in Big East play we have made only 11 fewer free throws than our opponents have attempted, so on average we make less than 1 FT fewer than our opponents attempt.  Pretty good!

Keith

[krocheck]

Well that's the last time I research interesting stats and make pretty tables for you guys  

 

I think what I wanted to see if is the guys were actually meeting the goal.  7-7-2 ... not bad.  I suppose anyone could argue that making more FTs that the other team attempts is a factor in success, but the point being the guys made it happen twice but still lost, but also had 4 times they didn't make it happen yet still won (though I'd count 3 because 1 was the Providence blowout).  They split the ties, one W and one L.

Keith

[rocky_warrior]

Wow....this worked today.  We made 18 (of 22), they attempted 2 (made 1).

That'll win a lot of games!

[WxWarrior]

Wow....this worked today.  We made 18 (of 22), they attempted 2 (made 1).

That'll win a lot of games!

Stat of the year!!

[Balrogs]

Krocheck, are you Sugar's little brother?  Maybe we can have a stat off - first to use calculus in a meaningful basketball manner wins.

[Ready2Fly]

I do love this stat, and I love the paint touches stat.  Even though we don't have the players to finish in the paint right now, it's very clearly why our 3p% is so high.  Draw the defense in, kick it out for a step in three.  I've seen the stat flashed on the screen in some NBA and NCAA games that a player shooting off the pass vs. shooting off the dribble makes it 20% more often or something crazy like that.  Anyone have that stat handy?

Also, I've heard Buzz say in post-game pressers that the team keeps internal stats on paint touches (both MU and opponents).  I would LOVE to get my hands on that.

[krocheck]

Krocheck, are you Sugar's little brother?  Maybe we can have a stat off - first to use calculus in a meaningful basketball manner wins.

Oh yeah ... it's on.  Stats updated.

[Henry Sugar]

I missed this the first go-around.  And... unfortunately I'm going to be a big buzzkill.

#1 - Unlike last year, MU is not so good at actually getting to the line overall.  They are, however, good at preventing their opponents from getting to the line.

#2 - I am relatively unconvinced that FTR or opponent FTR actually makes that big of an impact on the overall outcome of the game.  Why?

http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2009/04/2008-2009-recap-offense.html

Last year, even though MU was awesome at getting to the line, it was the smallest overall contribution amount for efficiency or scoring points.

#3 - Furthermore, unpublished to most people, I've created a bit of a prediction model that I tinker with constantly.  (Someday it'll be ready and I'll crush Vegas and then retire to some island)  Anyways, when I run sensitivity analyses on the prediction model, FTR and Opponent FTR is always at the bottom of the list for sensitivity.  Always. 

The far more reliable predictors of winning a game are almost always eFG%, and then some combination of turnovers and offensive rebounding percentage.  FTR is kind of a small impact from an overall variable.  Did it help MU win last night?  Sure, but it was about 3-4x more helpful that MU won the eFG% battle 55.4 to 43.5.

[Ready2Fly]

Sugar, just curious, what weight would you give FTR? I know Buzz has mentioned that paint touches increase both your FT rate and FG%. If it's a factor at all, I'm sure that's why the paint touches are so important to him, they kind of kill two birds with one stone. If you wrote an equation with eFG, TO rate, rebounding rate, and FT rate, what would your FTR factor be? .1? .05?

[pillardean]

Sugar,

just clarifing, FTR also takes into consideration fouls on the other team?

Reduced minutes, or NON-reduced minutes for OUR players particularily JB and LH.

You're probably right that FTR doesn't matter if it's in the 5-10 differential rate.  But for our team I do agree that it matters as well as the disperity matters.  FTR>10 or something like that.

[LON]

Because someone has to...NERDS!!!!!




/Keep up the good work though, seriously

[Henry Sugar]

Sugar, just curious, what weight would you give FTR? I know Buzz has mentioned that paint touches increase both your FT rate and FG%. If it's a factor at all, I'm sure that's why the paint touches are so important to him, they kind of kill two birds with one stone. If you wrote an equation with eFG, TO rate, rebounding rate, and FT rate, what would your FTR factor be? .1? .05?

For this year?

Offensive Efficiency** = 27 + (1.5 * eFG%) - (1.3 * TO%) + (0.7 * OR%) + (0.15 * FTR)

Season Averages
eFG% - 52.5
TO% - 16.0
OR% - 33.2
FTR - 35.3

Predicted Offensive Efficiency given averages

Offensive Efficiency

= 27 + (1.5 * eFG%) - (1.3 * TO%) + (0.7 * OR%) + (0.15 * FTR)
= 27 + (1.5 * 52.5) - (1.3 * 16.0) + (0.7 * 33.2) + (0.15 * 35.3)
= 27 + 78.2 - 20.5 + 22.3 + 5.2
=112.6 (actual average efficiency = 112.6)

In overall contribution to offensive efficiency, FTR is the 5.2 part.  FTR contributes 0.05 points per possession.  It's not insignificant, it's just not as important or sensitive.  It's about 3-4% of the outcome.

**the equation is based off regression analysis.  All coefficients are significant to 99%

[Henry Sugar]

Sugar,

just clarifing, FTR also takes into consideration fouls on the other team?

Not really.  It's only how efficient we are on offense in comparison to the four factors of eFG%, TO%, OR%, and FTR

Reduced minutes, or NON-reduced minutes for OUR players particularily JB and LH.

You're probably right that FTR doesn't matter if it's in the 5-10 differential rate.  But for our team I do agree that it matters as well as the disperity matters.  FTR>10 or something like that.

I think this is where it matters.  Not fouling a lot allows our players to stay on the floor. 

Again, I'm not saying that FTR doesn't matter.  0.05 ppp counts for a lot as a predictor of success.  My basic point is that it's a lot more important to win the eFG% matchup, and then either the TO% or OR% matchup before FTR.

Taking it out of the nerd level, think about it a little differently.  MU's strengths are that they shoot the ball really well from downtown (winning eFG%), and then they are best in conference at turnover margin (winning TO%), which helps compensate for the lack of size on the boards (losing OR%).  FTR makes the difference when those are all relatively even.

[Ready2Fly]

So basically what you're saying is eFG% is  ~70% of the game, and FTR is ~4%?  Am I reading that right?  So if paint touches are highly positively correlated with both eFG% and FTR, they're ~75% of the battle?  Or is that too simplistic?

[Ready2Fly]

Because someone has to...NERDS!!!!!




/Keep up the good work though, seriously

Well played sir.  Just curious, are you the same LancesOtherNut of Deadspin commentariat fame?

[Henry Sugar]

So basically what you're saying is eFG% is  ~70% of the game, and FTR is ~4%?  Am I reading that right?  So if paint touches are highly positively correlated with both eFG% and FTR, they're ~75% of the battle?  Or is that too simplistic?

The honest answer is I don't know, but your logic makes sense to me.  

I would love to get access to the paint touches stat (just like I would have loved to have access to the deflections stat) to see what impact it really has on the different areas.

[LON]

Well played sir.  Just curious, are you the same LancesOtherNut of Deadspin commentariat fame?

Yes I am.

I read it a lot and commented when the site first came out, but then they had all those mass commenter executions and I didn't make the cut...

[spiral97]

Seems like this is a modified normalized voting mechanism using single dimensional value functions on each of the 4 criteria presented.

As such, the weightings (1.5 for eFG%, 1.3 for TO%, 0.7 for OR% and 0.15 for FTR) are the normalizers.

To answer Read2Fly's question... The sum of the weights is 3.65.  That roughly means the eFG% is 41%, TO% is 36%, OR% is 19%, and FTR is 4%.  Not sure where your 70% came from.

Sugar, have you ever used Expert Choice 2000?  This tool facilitates this type of analysis pretty decently (although is a little kludgey to use).

[NersEllenson]

I find this stat amazing, and a complete reflection of Buzz-Ball.  All of the statistical analysis is too complicated for me, but most coaches always will say defense and rebounding are the keys to winning games.  Not to dispute Effective Field Goal Percentage and Turnover Margin...but...there is ZERO way MU comes close to being 11-6 in the Big East right now...getting DOMINATED on the boards as they have been...if they aren't winning the Free Throw battle.  I think this is a HUGE stat to track (Bo Ryan is also a huge proponent of at least taking more FT's than your oppponent).  The fact MU has MADE 244 and the Big East opposition have only TAKEN 243 is remarkable...and how amazing that the team is meeting one of Buzz's Top 2 goals - the other being paint touches.

[Ready2Fly]

Seems like this is a modified normalized voting mechanism using single dimensional value functions on each of the 4 criteria presented.

As such, the weightings (1.5 for eFG%, 1.3 for TO%, 0.7 for OR% and 0.15 for FTR) are the normalizers.

To answer Read2Fly's question... The sum of the weights is 3.65.  That roughly means the eFG% is 41%, TO% is 36%, OR% is 19%, and FTR is 4%.  Not sure where your 70% came from.

Sugar, have you ever used Expert Choice 2000?  This tool facilitates this type of analysis pretty decently (although is a little kludgey to use).

I was using the wrong numbers and dividing by the wrong numbers.  I guess rephrase my question with 41%, 4%, and 45% in place of 70%, 4%, and 75%.  I knew it sounded too high.

[Ready2Fly]

The honest answer is I don't know, but your logic makes sense to me.  

I would love to get access to the paint touches stat (just like I would have loved to have access to the deflections stat) to see what impact it really has on the different areas.

I'll sponsor a covert mission to steal the info Watergate style.  I'd love to see those numbers too!

I'd bet that paint touches correlates much higher with wins than deflections.  What would the deflections stat be a driver of, anyway? Fast break points?  Opponents' FG%?  It did make for some exciting basketball though.

[Ready2Fly]

Yes I am.

I read it a lot and commented when the site first came out, but then they had all those mass commenter executions and I didn't make the cut...

I thought the commenting actually went downhill after the executions.  The site's gotten a bit more TMZ-ish as a whole, but I still love the Jamboroo.

[ErickJD08]

 I think Buzz stresses paint touches because he knows we are a jump shooting team and we can fall in love with shooting.  Truth is that if you sit back and jack up shots, the other team will rarely get into foul trouble.  And foul trouble (among other things) can be disruptive to a team's flow by forcing a team to change line ups or keeping a line up for too long.  This factor helps produce an ugly game and I am in agreement with Buzz that when the game gets ugly, it works in our favor.  

[LON]

I thought the commenting actually went downhill after the executions.  The site's gotten a bit more TMZ-ish as a whole, but I still love the Jamboroo.

Yeah Big Daddy Drew brings me to tears with some of his stuff...nothing is better than wasting some time on KissingSuzyKolber

But I agree, ever since Leitch left it went downhill fast, and the air of superiority most commenters have on that site is nothing short of Badger-esque.

[spiral97]

I think Buzz stresses paint touches because he knows we are a jump shooting team and we can fall in love with shooting.  Truth is that if you sit back and jack up shots, the other team will rarely get into foul trouble.  And foul trouble (among other things) can be disruptive to a team's flow by forcing a team to change line ups or keeping a line up for too long.  This factor helps produce an ugly game and I am in agreement with Buzz that when the game gets ugly, it works in our favor.  

I was thinking he stresses the paint touches to force us to move the ball around and to use up time.  He always mentions how many possessions we want to keep our opponent below and paint touches is one way to eat up the clock (along the lines of not jacking up shots like you said) and more effectively than just dribbling in the corner of the court since it will create opportunities that we should take immediately if they're available.