DJ Newbill-New 2010 Commit?

[77ncaachamps]

Here's the Strawberry Mansion team:


STRAWBERRY MANSION
Front, L to R -- Darren Lawrence, Cedric Powell, Devonte Newbill, Rasheed Harris, Marcus Grimes.
Second, L to R -- Lawrence Elliott, Khyree Wooten, Tarique Wilson, Eric Jefferson, Bilal Kelley.
Third, L to R -- manager Kayon Miller and Greg Cooper, Kiari Saulbury, Marcus "Worm" Johnson.
Back, L to R -- assistant Stan Laws, video man Michael Hampton, James Johnson, coach Gerald Hendricks.

Link to the public league teams' photos: http://www.tedsilary.com/BBpublicCteampics09.htm
I think we should recruit that kid, Shaquille Duncan.

[mr.MUskie]

Here's the Strawberry Mansion team:

We need the big guy in back with the PEPPE shirt.

[Blackhat]

you realize all the other players are sitting down?
 

[Boone]

There's no law that says we have to fill all 13 scholarships. I'd rather save one than use it on a guard on a roster glutted w/guards.

[chapman]

There's no law that says we have to fill all 13 scholarships. I'd rather save one than use it on a guard on a roster glutted w/guards.

That's assuming nobody leaves and we would have still only have one open scholarship for next year come November.  Plus we'll have another 3+ open scholarships for 2011.  I'm hoping we avoid banking scholarships for awhile, just based on the lack of bodies after transfers and injuries over the past two seasons.  If one suddenly becomes available due to a departure in August or in November there's not much you can do, but it's a failure to be deciding to bank anything before the summer.  We do not want to be in the position of not even being able to practice with ten available bodies if there is a scholarship open.  If we have 13 players and two are MAC-level it's better than having 11 players, especially if you're already trying to fill three or four roster spots each year.

[bma725]

Disagree that there are no top 200 bigs available right now. The following bigs from ESPN top 200 all ranked at 90 or better are listed as available:
Jeremy Tyler 6'9" San Diego
CJ Leslie 6'9" NC
Monterale Clark 6'10" Tx. There is an oldie but goodie--wonder if he will commit to Jail
Ricardo Ratliffe 6'8" Fla
John Graham 6'8'Md.
jaleel Roberts 6'10" NC
Plus 7 others listed, so there are about 13 top 200 big m3n out there. Why do we keep making excuses that we cannot get the few that are left.
John Graham 6'8" Md.

Tyler is playing pro ball in Israel.  Roberts is in the class of 2011, not 2010. 

[tower912]

Finally, cold, hard reason arrives.    BMA, good get or not so good?

[NersEllenson]

Initially, he's a Blue, Buycks, Cadougan, DJO and Smith back up.

Essentially we just got a commitment from our 6th guard for next year at a time when guard was the position with the absolute least amount of need.  A Center? Yes.  A Power Forward?  Definitely. A combo forward? Justifiable.  A guard?  No, not at all.  If Buzz doesn't hit a home run with his last signing or miraculously turn Otule and Mbao into a successful tandem, we're going to be stuck at the same place we've been the last 5 years. 

Though I generally agree with BMA and he has a lot of clout here - I'm going to disagree with this analysis for 3 reasons:  1) To say we will be stuck in the same place we've been for the next 5 years implies that we have NO chance of signing a 1 or 2 Quality Bigs in the 2011 class (I believe we have 2 schollies available that year - Fulce and Buycks departures).  2) Buzz has said he will never pass up the opportunity to sign a kid, that he feels is a player - so he must like a lot about Newbill's game.  3) Some have speculated Vander Blue could be good enough to leave the program after his 2nd or 3rd year - so to get more depth at guard now (thought counterintuitive) with a player that Buzz feels is a player..may very well be a nice insurance policy.

[Boone]

Currently, we only have scholarship to give in DJO's class, which makes it very  likely Buzz will use our last scholarship this year on a JUCO. Just hope it's someone bigger than Crowder.

[NotAnAlum]

I'm sure DJ is a good kid and his stock may be rising BUT I simply can't figure out this signing.  We have DJO for 2 more years, Vander for 4, Junior for 3.  Does anyone expect this kid to be better than these 3.  He's not a defensive specialist, he's not a deadly 3 point zone breaker.  That means his ceiling is around 8 minutes for the next 3 years.  Meanwhile we have Jimmy and Fulce for only one more year.  Two centers with major question marks and E Will.  Thats right, unless we catch a break at center we will be playing E-Will there, out of postion surrounded by 4 guards.  To the poster who asked earlier should we take a mid major Low Post player instead if that is all we can find the answer is YES.   I'd take a young Dwight Burke right now if I had to.  Atleast 2 years from now we might have a kid that could defend the post.  With DJO, Vander and Junior on the court that is all you need to do, defend the post and take up space down low.  And since you are going to need to gamble on these low post recruits we need to take 2 because with our luck one of the will wash out or transfer or break one of his feet.  Sorry to be negative but this all about planning for the future when you have a chance to be really good.  Buzz I just don't get it.

[tower912]

Ners, Fulce, Buycks, and oh, yeah, that Butler guy will be seniors next year.   I missed BMA's earlier post.   Doh!

[NersEllenson]

Ners, Fulce, Buycks, and oh, yeah, that Butler guy will be seniors next year.   I missed BMA's earlier post.   Doh!

And Doh to me for failing to mention that Butler guy as being a senior next year!  (Perhaps I don't want to acknowledge that reality that JB will be leaving next year!).  So, that means we will have 3 scholarships open for 2011 - I have to think Buzz will land at least 2 quality bigs in the 2011 class.  He can illustrate to recruits that - "Hey, we have an extermely talented set of guards, depth at that position..I've proven I can win even with and undersized and thin roster with only 8 scholarship players...we add you (Mr. Big Guy) to the mix, and it is very, very likely you are going to be playing with a team that has a legitimate chance to get to the Final Four."

All this said, Buzz MUST get a 4 or 5 with this last scholarship player.  If that doesn't happen, I will simmer my Buzz man-crush.

[4everwarriors]

If you want skinny legs, the dude next to DJ would be fine. I somewhat intriqued with the cat named, "Worm." Don't know if he's a playa or not.

[HoopsMalone]

"Hey, we have an extermely talented set of guards, depth at that position..I've proven I can win even with and undersized and thin roster with only 8 scholarship players...we add you (Mr. Big Guy) to the mix, and it is very, very likely you are going to be playing with a team that has a legitimate chance to get to the Final Four."

Haven't Buzz and Crean been trying this sine 2005?  Hopefully Buzz can be the one to finally seal the deal.  A JUCO big for 2010 and two talented freshman bigs for 2011 would be perfect.  I think you obviously replace Fulce with a big man, but also probably can replace Buycks with a big man as well to balance the team.  Smith, Cadougan, and Blue can all play point so we are fine there.  I'd like to see Jimmy replaced in 2011 by a player of his size to go along with EWill and Jones. 

[Litehouse]

We desperately need a big PF-type banger that can come in and play immediately next year, and now we better get one with the last scholarship.  I don't know anything about Newbill and hope he turns out to be a great player for us, but it looks like he'll be our 6th G next year and I don't think he fills a need.  If we were going to use this scholarship on someone that won't get much PT next year, I'd rather take a chance on a big project, possibly someone like Otule.

[NersEllenson]

Haven't Buzz and Crean been trying this sine 2005? 

Good point..though I do think Buzz will seal the deal with this last scholarship for 2010, and then getting 1-2 bigs in 2011 who may be immediate contributors.  He was so close on Tarik Black.  And of course if Monterale Clark hadn't gotten into trouble - he was a fairly highly regarded "big," though not a banger.  

[nyg]

And Doh to me for failing to mention that Butler guy as being a senior next year!  (Perhaps I don't want to acknowledge that reality that JB will be leaving next year!).  So, that means we will have 3 scholarships open for 2011 - I have to think Buzz will land at least 2 quality bigs in the 2011 class.  He can illustrate to recruits that - "Hey, we have an extermely talented set of guards, depth at that position..I've proven I can win even with and undersized and thin roster with only 8 scholarship players...we add you (Mr. Big Guy) to the mix, and it is very, very likely you are going to be playing with a team that has a legitimate chance to get to the Final Four."

All this said, Buzz MUST get a 4 or 5 with this last scholarship player.  If that doesn't happen, I will simmer my Buzz man-crush.

[/b][/color]

We will all keep an eye-out for that.

BTW, anyone know what's up with the name "Strawberry Mansion"?  Strange name for a school.

[NersEllenson]

[/b][/color]

We will all keep an eye-out for that.

LOL - Nice!  Hey, I'm All-In on Buzz.  Y'all can have a field day with me if he doesn't bring in a 4-5..and I'm defining a 4 as someone 6'7" 215-225lbs+ 

[wildbill sb]

Google "Strawberry Mansion."  Interesting history.

[bma725]

Though I generally agree with BMA and he has a lot of clout here - I'm going to disagree with this analysis for 3 reasons:  1) To say we will be stuck in the same place we've been for the next 5 years implies that we have NO chance of signing a 1 or 2 Quality Bigs in the 2011 class (I believe we have 2 schollies available that year - Fulce and Buycks departures).  2) Buzz has said he will never pass up the opportunity to sign a kid, that he feels is a player - so he must like a lot about Newbill's game.  3) Some have speculated Vander Blue could be good enough to leave the program after his 2nd or 3rd year - so to get more depth at guard now (thought counterintuitive) with a player that Buzz feels is a player..may very well be a nice insurance policy.

I get the whole never passing up a good player even if he's not at a position of need thing, I do.  But it's a deeply flawed line of thinking.  The reality is that there are simply far far more players that are ready to go right away at the 1-3 positions than there are at the 4-5.  It takes a lot more time for a big man to develop into a quality college player than it does for a guard.  So if you're always going with the guys that are the best players available, 95% of the time you're going to get guards.  And you simply can't become an elite level program that way.  At some point, all of the top level coaches realize that filling needs is often more important than taking the most talented guy available, because in the end you can't out talent the other team if the only talent you have is at the wing positions....Buzz hasn't gotten there yet.

Worrying about Vander leaving in 2 or 3 years shouldn't lead you to an insurance policy, in fact that's pretty much the worst route you can go.  If you really believe he's going to be here only 2 or 3 years, then you have to make sure you are putting the absolute best team around him when you've got him on campus.  You don't do that by recruiting a back up guard.  Given how long it takes your average big man to develop, even Top 100 big men that are outside of the Top 15 or so, you can't afford to be looking toward 2011 or 2012 to get one, because by the time they are ready it will be too late. 

[NersEllenson]

I get the whole never passing up a good player even if he's not at a position of need thing, I do.  But it's a deeply flawed line of thinking.  The reality is that there are simply far far more players that are ready to go right away at the 1-3 positions than there are at the 4-5.  It takes a lot more time for a big man to develop into a quality college player than it does for a guard.  So if you're always going with the guys that are the best players available, 95% of the time you're going to get guards.  And you simply can't become an elite level program that way.  At some point, all of the top level coaches realize that filling needs is often more important than taking the most talented guy available, because in the end you can't out talent the other team if the only talent you have is at the wing positions....Buzz hasn't gotten there yet.

Worrying about Vander leaving in 2 or 3 years shouldn't lead you to an insurance policy, in fact that's pretty much the worst route you can go.  If you really believe he's going to be here only 2 or 3 years, then you have to make sure you are putting the absolute best team around him when you've got him on campus.  You don't do that by recruiting a back up guard.  Given how long it takes your average big man to develop, even Top 100 big men that are outside of the Top 15 or so, you can't afford to be looking toward 2011 or 2012 to get one, because by the time they are ready it will be too late. 

  Very good insight BMA..I respect virtually everything you wrote.  Well thought out, good analysis.  My only rebuttal would be, that hopefully Buzz can land 2 highly regarded big-men in the 2011 class, that might be more game ready as freshman, than would taking a project this year.  Probably wishful thinking on my part to think we could land 2 highly regarded bigs in 1 year..but a possibility

[ChicosBailBonds]

I get the whole never passing up a good player even if he's not at a position of need thing, I do.  But it's a deeply flawed line of thinking.  The reality is that there are simply far far more players that are ready to go right away at the 1-3 positions than there are at the 4-5.  It takes a lot more time for a big man to develop into a quality college player than it does for a guard.  So if you're always going with the guys that are the best players available, 95% of the time you're going to get guards.  And you simply can't become an elite level program that way.  At some point, all of the top level coaches realize that filling needs is often more important than taking the most talented guy available, because in the end you can't out talent the other team if the only talent you have is at the wing positions....Buzz hasn't gotten there yet.

Worrying about Vander leaving in 2 or 3 years shouldn't lead you to an insurance policy, in fact that's pretty much the worst route you can go.  If you really believe he's going to be here only 2 or 3 years, then you have to make sure you are putting the absolute best team around him when you've got him on campus.  You don't do that by recruiting a back up guard.  Given how long it takes your average big man to develop, even Top 100 big men that are outside of the Top 15 or so, you can't afford to be looking toward 2011 or 2012 to get one, because by the time they are ready it will be too late.  

Well said BMA. It's funny, several of us have said something similar but are called Buzz haters for it.  Go figure.

But again, solid analysis.  It is a puzzling signing in that regard, but it also goes to show what so many have said with supply and demand.  The most abundant good players are guards, it's just a simple numbers game.  There are a ton of them out there.  There are very few quality bigs.

[4everwarriors]

I guessing Mansion was easier to spell than Fields.

[NersEllenson]

Sigh...yeah, you nailed it.    Afterall, I haven't even offered an opinion on this, simply stating what other sites are saying, but you sure nailed it.  

Here's my beef with Chicos - he states in the above post (#51 in this thread) he hasn't even offered an opinion, but now after BMA's post, he tries to say that he was stating the same or similar to what BMA just posted.  Trying to get credibility by associating his viewpoint (which he NEVER shared in this whole thread) with one of the most respected posters on MU - when he's already said in the same thread "he hasn't even offered an opinion on this."  GET REAL, but what could I expect from someone who lives in "The O.C.?"

[nyg]

Going on page number seven of this thread and I was sort of suprised as some of this signing.  The staff will get a bigman with the last slot from somewhere, since they have the argument of playing time at a PF on their side.  They did not have that previously with Maymon on the roster when recruiting was at its peak. With Butler and Fulce gone after next year, the argument can be even greater for 2011 recruits.  Just have to find a suitable size guy for next year and if they have to recruit "over" that player in 2011, so be it.   It is what it is. 

Wasted signing of this kid, who knows. The "diamond in the rough" usually does not occur, but maybe in this case its a remote possibility.  When he is not even listed in the Scout or Rivals database, and mediocre at best rating on ESPN site, there is some concern, but we are not on the recruiting trail like the staff and rely on the impact of the internet and media press.

When he arrives, Newbill will be behind DJO, Buycks, Junior, Blue and probably Smith when it comes to playing time.  This will give him a few years to learn and grow in order to compete for backup playing time when Buycks and DJO depart. If not, he will be a fine member of the team and help in practice.

Now with all this discussion/comments/arguments/analysis, does anyone actually believe Newbill will see more time on the court than Frozena?