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Next up: A long offseason

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The Equalizer

Quote from: mu03eng on March 01, 2012, 12:22:29 PM
Go back and look at JFB's first year in the program, not that much difference between him and Juan except there is more talent in front of Juan preventing him from playing.

Players make the biggest leap between freshmen and sophomore year.  I'm willing to bet this time next year we'll be talking about how high is Juan's ceiling.

Your comment about Anderson not playing because there is too much talent ahead of him is just plain wrong.  With Otule and Gardner out, we SORELY lack size.  We're forced into nothing but 3-guard offenses--and that requires that Crowder and Wilson play almost the entire game.   Anderson could easily get 20 minutes per game spelling Crowder for 10 and Wilson for 10.  He isn't getting it--not because buzz likes burning players out by playing them 38 to 40 mpg, but because he can't afford to play Anderson any more.  If Anderson were as good as Butler was in 2009, he'd be getting those 20 mpg.

Look back at 2009--Butler still got 20 minutes behind Hayward, Matthews and Burke--and competing for time against Fulce and Hazel.  An no frontcourt players was out with injury. 

Second I don't know what stats you're looking at, but I see a hell of a lot of difference between Butler's first year and Anderson this year.

20 mpg versus 5.
131 offensive rating vs. 81.
5.6 ppg vs. 0.7
3.9 rpg vs. 1.0
1.5 a/t ratio versus 0.5
16 blocks vs. 1

Compare all the stats--especially tempo neutral and "per-40" --between Butler as a soph and Anderson this year, and it shows that Butler in his first year was light years ahead of where Anderson is.

http://statsheet.com/mcb/players/compare?add=juan-anderson&jimmy-butler=2008-2009&p1=jimmy-butler

Your generalization about players improving the most between frosh and soph year is not necessarily correct.  It is extremely rare for a player to contribute as little as Anderson has this year and then turn out to be a significant contributor.  Check Matthews and Hayward for example.  You have to go back 18 years to Chris Crawford to find a situation that comes close--and Crawford averaged 50% more minutes/game and more than double the points/game of Anderson.

That's not to say that Anderson can't improve--but to say that he's even close to being comparable to where Butler was is insane.

Windyplayer

Thanks for bolstering my hunch with research.

THEultimateWARRIOR

Would Anderson have seen the court at all in Big East play if Otule and Gardner didn't get injured?

MU82

Quote from: The Equalizer on March 01, 2012, 01:25:44 PM
Your comment about Anderson not playing because there is too much talent ahead of him is just plain wrong.  With Otule and Gardner out, we SORELY lack size.  We're forced into nothing but 3-guard offenses--and that requires that Crowder and Wilson play almost the entire game.   Anderson could easily get 20 minutes per game spelling Crowder for 10 and Wilson for 10.  He isn't getting it--not because buzz likes burning players out by playing them 38 to 40 mpg, but because he can't afford to play Anderson any more.  If Anderson were as good as Butler was in 2009, he'd be getting those 20 mpg.

Look back at 2009--Butler still got 20 minutes behind Hayward, Matthews and Burke--and competing for time against Fulce and Hazel.  An no frontcourt players was out with injury. 

Second I don't know what stats you're looking at, but I see a hell of a lot of difference between Butler's first year and Anderson this year.

20 mpg versus 5.
131 offensive rating vs. 81.
5.6 ppg vs. 0.7
3.9 rpg vs. 1.0
1.5 a/t ratio versus 0.5
16 blocks vs. 1

Compare all the stats--especially tempo neutral and "per-40" --between Butler as a soph and Anderson this year, and it shows that Butler in his first year was light years ahead of where Anderson is.

http://statsheet.com/mcb/players/compare?add=juan-anderson&jimmy-butler=2008-2009&p1=jimmy-butler

Your generalization about players improving the most between frosh and soph year is not necessarily correct.  It is extremely rare for a player to contribute as little as Anderson has this year and then turn out to be a significant contributor.  Check Matthews and Hayward for example.  You have to go back 18 years to Chris Crawford to find a situation that comes close--and Crawford averaged 50% more minutes/game and more than double the points/game of Anderson.

That's not to say that Anderson can't improve--but to say that he's even close to being comparable to where Butler was is insane.

Good stats and points. And you don't even talk about how much Butler improved during his sophomore year. By the end of the season, I was talking to the TV, begging Buzz to play him over Burke.
"It's not how white men fight." - Tucker Carlson

"Guard against the impostures of pretended patriotism." - George Washington

"In a time of deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act." - George Orwell

mu03eng

Quote from: The Equalizer on March 01, 2012, 01:25:44 PM
Your comment about Anderson not playing because there is too much talent ahead of him is just plain wrong.  With Otule and Gardner out, we SORELY lack size.  We're forced into nothing but 3-guard offenses--and that requires that Crowder and Wilson play almost the entire game.   Anderson could easily get 20 minutes per game spelling Crowder for 10 and Wilson for 10.  He isn't getting it--not because buzz likes burning players out by playing them 38 to 40 mpg, but because he can't afford to play Anderson any more.  If Anderson were as good as Butler was in 2009, he'd be getting those 20 mpg.

Look back at 2009--Butler still got 20 minutes behind Hayward, Matthews and Burke--and competing for time against Fulce and Hazel.  An no frontcourt players was out with injury. 

Second I don't know what stats you're looking at, but I see a hell of a lot of difference between Butler's first year and Anderson this year.

20 mpg versus 5.
131 offensive rating vs. 81.
5.6 ppg vs. 0.7
3.9 rpg vs. 1.0
1.5 a/t ratio versus 0.5
16 blocks vs. 1

Compare all the stats--especially tempo neutral and "per-40" --between Butler as a soph and Anderson this year, and it shows that Butler in his first year was light years ahead of where Anderson is.

http://statsheet.com/mcb/players/compare?add=juan-anderson&jimmy-butler=2008-2009&p1=jimmy-butler

Your generalization about players improving the most between frosh and soph year is not necessarily correct.  It is extremely rare for a player to contribute as little as Anderson has this year and then turn out to be a significant contributor.  Check Matthews and Hayward for example.  You have to go back 18 years to Chris Crawford to find a situation that comes close--and Crawford averaged 50% more minutes/game and more than double the points/game of Anderson.

That's not to say that Anderson can't improve--but to say that he's even close to being comparable to where Butler was is insane.

I will concede the statistical high ground and take away/clarify my statement a little.

At the end of the year, Jimmy's sophomore year, he was absolutely playing better than Juan is.  But I still stand by the talent statement, JFB was competing for minutes at the 4 where there was really only Zar.  And Zar had to play the 5 some to spell Burke.  Juan is a natural 3 where Jimmy is a 3/4.  I'd argue Crowder, Blue, Wilson are a better 3/4/5 than were Matthews, Burke, and Zar, hence more talent in front of him.  Does anyone know how many more minute Jae is playing since DG went out?

Also Jimmy had JUCO experience plus a full season of experience by this point of the season, Juan has neither of those.  So yes my statement as an apples to apples was wrong, I should have said that Juan could have a Jimmy like arc there isn't anything that indicates he can't.  I have nothing to back this up, but I think Jimmy's non-con play and Juan's con play are similar, flashes of something but not putting it together.  We'll see, I think this is an argument for next year, that will tell the tale.
"A Plan? Oh man, I hate plans. That means were gonna have to do stuff. Can't we just have a strategy......or a mission statement."

Windyplayer

Quote from: mu03eng on March 01, 2012, 04:06:41 PM
I have nothing to back this up, but I think Jimmy's non-con play and Juan's con play are similar, flashes of something but not putting it together.  We'll see, I think this is an argument for next year, that will tell the tale.
That was the point of my original post. Anderson has not shown "flashes of something." Can you name one play that made you think this kid has what it takes with a little more coaching and experience? I really can't. I'm not trying to bash Anderson, I really hope he pans out, but every time he comes on the court I'm praying he doesn't turn the ball over. If he doesn't, I'm content. I should have higher expectations for our freshmen.

strotty

Quote from: windyplayer on March 01, 2012, 04:18:02 PM
That was the point of my original post. Anderson has not shown "flashes of something." Can you name one play that made you think this kid has what it takes with a little more coaching and experience? I really can't. I'm not trying to bash Anderson, I really hope he pans out, but every time he comes on the court I'm praying he doesn't turn the ball over. If he doesn't, I'm content. I should have higher expectations for our freshmen.

The Wisconsin and Providence games.

mu03eng

Quote from: windyplayer on March 01, 2012, 04:18:02 PM
That was the point of my original post. Anderson has not shown "flashes of something." Can you name one play that made you think this kid has what it takes with a little more coaching and experience? I really can't. I'm not trying to bash Anderson, I really hope he pans out, but every time he comes on the court I'm praying he doesn't turn the ball over. If he doesn't, I'm content. I should have higher expectations for our freshmen.

Last nights game, he didn't score but there was a play where he got the ball in the alley on the left and went under to the right using the hoop to shield the blocker on the left....unfortunately there was a blocker on the right side too.  However, for me it was a flash on instinct and athleticism.
"A Plan? Oh man, I hate plans. That means were gonna have to do stuff. Can't we just have a strategy......or a mission statement."

Bocephys

Quote from: mu03eng on March 01, 2012, 05:26:01 PM
Last nights game, he didn't score but there was a play where he got the ball in the alley on the left and went under to the right using the hoop to shield the blocker on the left....unfortunately there was a blocker on the right side too.  However, for me it was a flash on instinct and athleticism.

Agreed, he just needs to get more comfortable out there like Jamil did as the season progressed.  The early season games will help him immensely next season.

strotty

It's the toughest transition freshmen have to make. In Oakland, no one was more athletic than him. That play last night, he either gets hacked on the arm or the defender doesn't get as high as him 10 out of 10 times. It's just a transition.

And I know it has been said here quite often, specifically involving Anderson, but our own Al: "The best thing about freshmen is that they become sophomores."

Windyplayer

Quote from: strotty on March 01, 2012, 05:01:49 PM
The Wisconsin and Providence games.
I'll give you the Wisconsin game, he pulled down a couple big rebounds (though I wouldn't characterize them as "flashes of something"). But providence? He had two points with two boards in eight minutes. I don't recall anything that stood out in that game in terms of his performance. I could be wrong.

Silkk the Shaka

Quote from: windyplayer on March 01, 2012, 12:31:01 PM
Yes, he could be great (see qualifier in post), but at least Jimmy could hit the occassionally jumper and Blue would have flashes of his athleticism. There's not one thing that gives me hope (other than the occasional rebound) except the fact that he's young with room to grow--which is not to be understated, but not to be depended on either.

Quote from: windyplayer on March 01, 2012, 12:31:01 PM
Yes, he could be great (see qualifier in post), but at least Jimmy could hit the occassionally jumper and Blue would have flashes of his athleticism. There's not one thing that gives me hope (other than the occasional rebound) except the fact that he's young with room to grow--which is not to be understated, but not to be depended on either.

He has a VERY high ceiling. Watch his high school highlight video. He's 6'7" with pass/dribble/shoot skills out the ahole and a willingness to defend. Definitely a perimeter-oriented wing player.  He needs to put on muscle and not play drastically out of position due to injuries to reach that ceiling. I'm confident he will have excellent junior/senior campaigns.

Windyplayer

Quote from: Jamailman on March 01, 2012, 06:11:07 PM

He has a VERY high ceiling. Watch his high school highlight video. He's 6'7" with pass/dribble/shoot skills out the ahole and a willingness to defend. Definitely a perimeter-oriented wing player.  He needs to put on muscle and not play drastically out of position due to injuries to reach that ceiling. I'm confident he will have excellent junior/senior campaigns.
He has been playing out of position, which I'm sure is really difficult on a freshman, but I wouldn't put too much stock in high school highlights as a bellwether of collegiate success (see your username). But, just to be crystal clear, I hope everyone is right. I'll support the kid for however long he's in blue and gold and beyond (assuming he doesn't transfer). Skepticism is just getting the best of me at this point. But it's early, so I'll temper my concerns for time being and give him the benefit of the doubt.

strotty

Part of it is his body, too. Derrick Wilson = Big East ready. Todd Mayo = Big East ready. Juan Anderson = Not Big East ready. You recruit a kid for what he can give you for four years, not just as a freshman. Playing as a stretch four still puts a toll on your body in MU's offense/defense. One more summer with Todd Smith will do him wonders.

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