MUScoop

It's taken me a week to digest that nightmare. UNC is good and was a bad matchup for us but that was as deflated as I've been since being in the stands against Kansas in New Orleans.

I know bits of this have been discussed elsewhere, but what in the world went wrong? None of the options seems great.

I don't buy the talent excuse. We had gone 8-1 with 5 of those wins over teams ranked at the time, the sole loss coming by 2 pts, on the road, against an eventual league champ, 4 seed, and S16 team (and beyond?), and an overall scoring margin of 691-587 (per game average 11.5). That being the result of "randomly" of playing above our talent level for 9 consecutive games is about 0.1%.

So that leaves me with the other three options. 

Did they run out of gas? (Sure, but compared to everyone else? And if so why - it's not like we had a short roster?). That's on the conditioning staff. If that's the case, we need accountability.

Did other teams figure us out? I think this is most likely (and also most disturbing and Shakahowski-esque). Teams shut down our main offensive movement of the Kolek-initiated  P&R and without that we either jacked up 3s or had Morsell or Lewis try to Iso into the lane. On D, teams up their intensity of crashing the O glass and in many cases got us really disorganized getting to open 3 looks. If it's this, then I think Shaka is very much under pressure not to have a Feb/March meltdown again next year. We don't need to be going to the S16, but we need to be playing our best (or at least not markedly worse) ball in Feb/March. Otherwise I think there will be cause for concern.

Or did the guys stop buying into what Shaka was selling? I think it might also be some of this - a lot of poor body language in the 2nd half of the season - guys whose shot might be off not finding other ways to make positive contributions. If it's this that's not great either - Shaka did a great job of getting our guys up for that Jan run - but then we need to see that sustained.

Or it could be that the phony cowboy just put a voodo curse on us and we'll never win a NCAAT game again until he retires.

Quote from: 1SE on March 24, 2022, 06:17:45 AM
It's taken me a week to digest that nightmare. UNC is good and was a bad matchup for us but that was as deflated as I've been since being in the stands against Kansas in New Orleans.

Let me stop you right there.  Since that ill-fated night in New Orleans in 2003, we have seen much much more disappointment than last week.  So much so that the UNC game doesn't even register in my top 10.

Perhaps you've forgotten the Lopez twins blowing us up in 2008 to shut down our run.

or

The next year when we had a 6 seed and lost to 11th ranked Washington.

or

in 2012 as a 3 seed, getting upset by 7 Florida (Our best team since 2003, though debateable)

or

in 2019 when 5 seeded Marquette got it doors blown off by 12 seeded Ja Morant.

So, to me, this game was a blip.  It doesn't even register as a 4 of 10 on the pain scale.  We were playing with house money and we lost.  No big deal.

Quote from: Hards_Alumni on March 24, 2022, 06:40:53 AM
Let me stop you right there.  Since that ill-fated night in New Orleans in 2003, we have seen much much more disappointment than last week.  So much so that the UNC game doesn't even register in my top 10.

Perhaps you've forgotten the Lopez twins blowing us up in 2008 to shut down our run.

or

The next year when we had a 6 seed and lost to 11th ranked Washington.

or

in 2012 as a 3 seed, getting upset by 7 Florida (Our best team since 2003, though debateable)

or

in 2019 when 5 seeded Marquette got it doors blown off by 12 seeded Ja Morant.

So, to me, this game was a blip.  It doesn't even register as a 4 of 10 on the pain scale.  We were playing with house money and we lost.  No big deal.

This. Especially after seeing UNC get up 25 on the 1 seed, I realized this game wasn't about MU schemes, or attitudes,, it was about a better team finally playing well. So now we need to upgrade the talent. I trust Shaka.

It's become a definite pattern of modern Marquette teams who play worse as the season goes on. Ironically the Badgers usually trend upward. It could be conditioning and coaching and definitely our poor shooting. Its getting tiresome as our competition plays better in late season.

Shaka lost his first real NCAA tourney test.

I don't buy teams figured us out in the second half of the season. Now, if Nova figured us out, I would say I buy that. Of the top teams in the BE we either won or held our own against those teams the second time around. We beat Nova twice, SH twice, were a bunny away from beating Providence twice and stepped on our johnson twice against Creighton. I would also argue that St. John's had a nice team and we played them hard and beat them in a game that easily could have gone the other way based off of how they were playing going into that game.

We played poorly the last month and I chalk that up on not making shots, poor rebounding and guys not playing team ball. Elliott and Kam were 0 for February and March and that did not help the cause. They were not as good as they were in January and were not as bad as they were in the late season. Unfortunately, MU fans have scars from late season collapses and I believe it jades the thought process. Worst part, they had a late season collapse and soured the overall season to some degree.

I think it comes down to talent. Shaka got every ounce of energy against top competition almost every time on the court and that is a positive. I am betting my optimism on an uptick on talent and see what happens. I think having Stevie and Omax at the UNC PC was telling sign. Those two were the two that played better late in the season and gave 100% every game. Time for Shaka to get better players that buy into his system.

Young team with typical ups and downs. What we all predicted but forgot when we hit our peak mid season. MU is in great hands with Shaka.

I think it was a combination of the talent and teams adjusting to what was working so well for us. And when Shaka tried to adjust again after the Big East figured us out we didn't have the talent to successfully play another way.

For example, the success Kolek was having with the pick and roll in the first Providence game. When that was taken away we didn't have a counterpunch and I think that was more due to the current limits of some of our players. Not trying to pick on Tyler at all here but when teams stopped leaving shooters when he penetrated he was unable to finish at the rim or with a floater consistently.

(https://c.tenor.com/y3nh5HWNlHkAAAAd/arbys-feels-like-an-arbys-night.gif)

Quote from: lawdog77 on March 24, 2022, 06:49:51 AM
This. Especially after seeing UNC get up 25 on the 1 seed, I realized this game wasn't about MU schemes, or attitudes,, it was about a better team finally playing well. So now we need to upgrade the talent. I trust Shaka.

Here we go again
No big deal. We were outclassed by a better team. Unaccptable excuse. We were blasted into outer space.

Quote from: willie warrior on March 24, 2022, 07:26:39 AM
Here we go again
No big deal. We were outclassed by a better team. Unaccptable excuse. We were blasted into outer space.

Find a new hobby.

Quote from: Stretchdeltsig on March 24, 2022, 07:06:09 AM
It's become a definite pattern of modern Marquette teams who play worse as the season goes on. Ironically the Badgers usually trend upward. It could be conditioning and coaching and definitely our poor shooting. Its getting tiresome as our competition plays better in late season.

I don't buy the argument that the current team is performing a certain way because of the way past teams performed. This years teams failures or success has nothing to do with any of Wojo's teams failures or success. Now if the same head coach is tanking in the same way every year, then that is a pattern.

BTW, Badgers lost 3 of their last 4 and were lucky to beat Purdue with a bank in 3 at the end of the game. Also, struggled against a 14 seed.

Quote from: willie warrior on March 24, 2022, 07:26:39 AM
Here we go again
No big deal. We were outclassed by a better team. Unaccptable excuse. We were blasted into outer space.

Thanks, Wanky

hairy

I agree on past regime failures should not be compared to this year. Now, if it happens a couple more times than Shaka is not the right guy. I looked at this season as being the start of a new MU program and overall it was success, IMO. We stunk up the joint three times in the last month and that is in memory bank, previous HC results are not, at least in discussion about the Shaka era.

Quote from: willie warrior on March 24, 2022, 07:26:39 AM
Here we go again
No big deal. We were outclassed by a better team. Unaccptable excuse. We were blasted into outer space.

Patience Willie, sustained success is coming.

UNC- a really good team that underperformed during the season to earn a lower seed than they should have been. MU- an average talented team that overperformed to earn a higher seed than they should have been. Perfect storm of teams going in opposite directions. Simple as that to me. Shaka coached his ass off to get his team a higher seed than the talent warranted.

We were 3-6 over our last nine games with a schedule that included:

Butler x2
vs GT
vs SJU
@ DePaul

We had games against 4 NCAA bound teams - one 5 seed, one 8 seed and one 9 seed (x2).

That body of work, against that schedule, for February/March is terrible. Yes UNC was a tough draw, but the worse 8/9 loss ever - and our worse loss of the season by 16 points! A season that included playing UCLA, UW, Nova and a sh*t ton of other Q1A games.

And the likelihood that our guys were just playing out of their minds, but weren't "actually that good" over the 8-1 stretch is almost infinitesimal. We had the talent (or Shaka was able to squeeze out a sum greater than the parts) to compete, if not win, with almost everyone).

Why wasn't he able to squeeze that out down the stretch? Why did the sum of the parts suddenly equal the sum of the parts?

I'm not on the Nah-ka train by any means, but like Goose said these are data points. If we're not playing our best (or no worse) ball of the season in February/March next year, I'll start to have some doubts if Shaka is our guy.

At this point, I'd rather miss the tourney next year as long as we're playing our best ball at the end of the year.

And since my dander is up, I can't stand this COLE argument that "well, look at UK and UW and UCONN - they cr@pped the bed too"

Good for them. I'm sure their fans are pissed as well. Excusing our cr@pping the bed because others also do it is the most COLE thing there is.

I think we should start another topic about this. Always great to give the whiners and complainers another place to say the same damn sh*t they've been saying for a week straight.

Quote from: Goose on March 24, 2022, 07:17:50 AM
I don't buy teams figured us out in the second half of the season. Now, if Nova figured us out, I would say I buy that. Of the top teams in the BE we either won or held our own against those teams the second time around. We beat Nova twice, SH twice, were a bunny away from beating Providence twice and stepped on our johnson twice against Creighton. I would also argue that St. John's had a nice team and we played them hard and beat them in a game that easily could have gone the other way based off of how they were playing going into that game.

We played poorly the last month and I chalk that up on not making shots, poor rebounding and guys not playing team ball. Elliott and Kam were 0 for February and March and that did not help the cause. They were not as good as they were in January and were not as bad as they were in the late season. Unfortunately, MU fans have scars from late season collapses and I believe it jades the thought process. Worst part, they had a late season collapse and soured the overall season to some degree.

I think it comes down to talent. Shaka got every ounce of energy against top competition almost every time on the court and that is a positive. I am betting my optimism on an uptick on talent and see what happens. I think having Stevie and Omax at the UNC PC was telling sign. Those two were the two that played better late in the season and gave 100% every game. Time for Shaka to get better players that buy into his system.

100% spot on Goose.

Quote from: Elonsmusk on March 24, 2022, 08:12:18 AM
100% spot on Goose.

But why were Stevie and Omax the only ones giving 100% all of the time at the end of the season? That's the "insufficient morale" which ultimately has to fall back on coaching.

There was no "one thing" that caused us to slide. I think Goose's multi-faceted post is the best summary, but others here have offered insightful takes as well.

Although the Baylor/UNC game ended up in OT due to a furious rally by Baylor (sparked by the ejection of a UNC player), the high-water mark of 25 that UNC achieved convinced me that part of our being stomped by UNC was due to an opponent that was radically improved from its earlier season performances. If the committee still considered late season performances, UNC would have almost certainly been seeded higher and we might have been a 10- 11 seed. We never would have met on the court. This is not meant as an excuse for the record blowout.

I'm not a fan of blaming "bad luck" on losses, but I will make an exception here regarding Marquette's draws in this year's and previous NCAA matchups. We faced superstar Ja Morant and then another time a South Carolina team who's best player had to sit out much of their season but was ready for the tourney and  a trip to the Final Four. Let's put the embarrassing loss to UNC in perspective, but should we have been able to get closer than 32 points? Yes.

Quote from: Scoop Snoop on March 24, 2022, 08:19:52 AM
There was no "one thing" that caused us to slide. I think Goose's multi-faceted post is the best summary, but others here have offered insightful takes as well.

Although the Baylor/UNC game ended up in OT due to a furious rally by Baylor (sparked by the ejection of a UNC player), the high-water mark of 25 that UNC achieved convinced me that part of our being stomped by UNC was due to an opponent that was radically improved from its earlier season performances. If the committee still considered late season performances, UNC would have almost certainly been seeded higher and we might have been a 10- 11 seed. We never would have met on the court. This is not meant as an excuse for the record blowout.

I'm not a fan of blaming "bad luck" on losses, but I will make an exception here regarding Marquette's draws in this year's and previous NCAA matchups. We faced superstar Ja Morant and a South Carolina team who's best player had to sit out much of their season but was ready for the tourney and  a trip to the Final Four. Let's put the embarrassing loss to UNC in perspective, but should we have been able to get closer than 32 points? Yes.

Yeah, I didn't mean only one thing - but the dominant factor.

The UNC game is bad - but they could make the FF - as you say it might be the case again of being in the wrong place at the wrong time.

What worries me more is the 3-5 record that included 5 games against the bottom 3 BE teams and only 1 game against a top 3 BE team. That awfulness could have been redeemed, in my eyes, with a NCAAT win - but since we instead got the largest 8/9 loss ever (and I'm sure there have been other "underseeded vs. overseeded" matches on that line) that 3-5 stretch really sticks in my craw.

You're right we shouldn't have played UNC in the 1st round, but mainly because we shouldn't have been worse than a 7 seed. Had we gone 5-3 down the stretch we would have easily been a 7 if not a 6.

It's taken Scoop a week or less to digest the biggest blowout in 8/9 history to consolidate the talking points in order to rationalize that embarrassment and act like it wasn't that bad and "next year" they'll finally turn this around.

Quote from: Hards_Alumni on March 24, 2022, 07:27:17 AM
Find a new hobby.

I have. Living rent free in your head. Must be one of those who settle for lame excuses. Team blew it big time last month of season so start the rationalization.

Quote from: Farley36 on March 24, 2022, 08:25:27 AM
It's taken Scoop a week or less to digest the biggest blowout in 8/9 history to consolidate the talking points in order to rationalize that embarrassment and act like it wasn't that bad and "next year" they'll finally turn this around.

Amen.

We faded under Wojo, because we had enough offensive talent to win early in the season. As the season goes on good teams get more sound on offense and defense and good coaches can plan to take away the other teams strengths. With Howard Wojo could win early in the season. By time the second half of the Big East season started the other teams knew how to counter Howard, so we fade into obscurity.

Shaka just wanted to create havoc, which works well when the opposing team is still learning to play. By the end of the season havoc does not work well, especially in NCAA tournament where you are only going to play sound teams.

Getting blown out by UNC, one could rationalize. Getting blown out by DePaul, that was the season being flushed. This season hit its inflection point way before the NCAAT.

One month made the season and it was a good month. Scoop was obsessing over being a 3 or 4 seed. Kolek was crowned the best PG since Diener. In the end, Morsell was the only rostered player who had consistently started at a high D1 school before the season.

Regression to the mean including the coaching staff who stubbornly stuck to their system despite clear signs their offense and defense had been figured out. A NCAAT notch was a big one for Year 1. Let's get on to Year 2 as I don't want a Texas step back.

I went with number 3 (figured out). I think Shaka was too stubborn and didn't make enough changes down the stretch. We became easy to game plan for. I think we should have gone small ball with this group at the end.

Quote from: CountryRoads on March 24, 2022, 08:44:42 AM
I went with number 3 (figured out). I think Shaka was too stubborn and didn't make enough changes down the stretch. We became easy to game plan for. I think we should have gone small ball with this group at the end.

With who though?  Joplin at the 5?  That just hurts a defense that was awful down the stretch.  He tried to have Morsell run more of the offense as Kolek became less effective, but Morsell is not a guy who's great initiating the offense.

We just don't have the horses right now.  Shaka did the best he could for a year one.  My concern is he didn't bring in top end talent for year two, and he loses for sure one of the two top end talents on the roster, and possibly both.

1SE

My saying those guys gave 100% was more related in the scope of the team. I can say Elliott gave 100% but I think it was not team oriented all of the time, same with a number of other guys. I think the effort was there for the most part, but think it was less team oriented the last month plus of the season. I am not going to say purposely allowed the team to implode, but I think he has a great deal of tape to share showing team play vs. non team play to the guys coming back.

Speaking of guys coming back, I am somewhat surprised we have not heard that any guys are leaving MU. To be honest, I am not sure if that is a good thing or a bad.

Quote from: Scoop Snoop on March 24, 2022, 08:19:52 AM
There was no "one thing" that caused us to slide. I think Goose's multi-faceted post is the best summary, but others here have offered insightful takes as well.

Although the Baylor/UNC game ended up in OT due to a furious rally by Baylor (sparked by the ejection of a UNC player), the high-water mark of 25 that UNC achieved convinced me that part of our being stomped by UNC was due to an opponent that was radically improved from its earlier season performances. If the committee still considered late season performances, UNC would have almost certainly been seeded higher and we might have been a 10- 11 seed. We never would have met on the court. This is not meant as an excuse for the record blowout.

I'm not a fan of blaming "bad luck" on losses, but I will make an exception here regarding Marquette's draws in this year's and previous NCAA matchups. We faced superstar Ja Morant and then another time a South Carolina team who's best player had to sit out much of their season but was ready for the tourney and  a trip to the Final Four. Let's put the embarrassing loss to UNC in perspective, but should we have been able to get closer than 32 points? Yes.

Different variations of "bad draws".

But honestly even going back to the Buzz and Crean days of the last 15 years. Weve never really been fortunate in the tournament with draws/things not playing to seeding.

2012 the 2 seed got wiped out for us. But  that simply just made us play a terrible match up Florida.

BYU that year was a great match up draw though. But even that game, most pundits had Byu/Iona as a trendy 14 seed upset pick because they mostly only got a 14 since thats all that would work for the Mormons. They were not a 14.

Quote from: willie warrior on March 24, 2022, 08:25:44 AM
I have. Living rent free in your head. Must be one of those who settle for lame excuses. Team blew it big time last month of season so start the rationalization.

Believe me when I say this willie; I never give you a single thought outside of your constant Eeyore comments on this board.

Quote from: Hards_Alumni on March 24, 2022, 06:40:53 AM
Let me stop you right there.  Since that ill-fated night in New Orleans in 2003, we have seen much much more disappointment than last week.  So much so that the UNC game doesn't even register in my top 10.

Perhaps you've forgotten the Lopez twins blowing us up in 2008 to shut down our run.

or

The next year when we had a 6 seed and lost to 11th ranked Washington.

or

in 2012 as a 3 seed, getting upset by 7 Florida (Our best team since 2003, though debateable)

or

in 2019 when 5 seeded Marquette got it doors blown off by 12 seeded Ja Morant.

So, to me, this game was a blip.  It doesn't even register as a 4 of 10 on the pain scale.  We were playing with house money and we lost.  No big deal.

How about scoring 30 points with a trip to the Final Four on the line in 2013?

Getting blown out by South Carolina in South Carolina in 2017?

Lazar Hayward stepping over the inbounds line to prevent the Big 3 an opportunity at the Sweet 16?

Blowing a double digit lead in 2019 in the Big East Semi-Final against Seton Hall?

Losing 5 in a row to blow the Conference title in 2019?

The list goes on and on. Last week wasn't even bad.

Quote from: GoldenEagles03 on March 24, 2022, 10:02:49 AM
How about scoring 30 points with a trip t ok the Final Four on the line in 2013?

Getting blown out by South Carolina in South Carolina?

Lazar Hayward stepping over the inbounds line to prevent the Big 3 an opportunity at the Sweet 16?

Blowing a double digit lead in 2019 in the Big East Semi-Final against Seton Hall?

Losing 5 in a row to blow the Conference title in 2019?

The list goes on and on. Last week wasn't even bad.

Precisely.

Obviously time to fire Shaka. Feb/March fade means he is the exact same as Wojo.

Sources say Wardle's available and ready!

Shot making. Being lucky in January. During our 7 game win streak we lost the last 4 straight games on Shot Quaility.

SHU Home- actual score was 73-72 SQ score was 66-67 L
Nova Away- actual score was 57-54 SQ score was 54-64 L
Xavier Home- actual score was 75-64 SQ score was 68-72 L
SHU Away- actual score was 73-63 SQ score was 58-66 L

Our conference play shot making, and shot making defense, relative to the quality of shots we allowed was 1st (both on offense and defense) through the first 10 games of conference play.

It was unsustainable.  We shot 41% from three over those games. 6% above the expected percentage. Our opponents shot 30% from three. 3% under the expected percentage. Our finishing at the rim was also 11% above the expected percentage over those games.

It flipped on us. The process of this Marquette team never really changed. Over the rest of the season we shot 32.6% from three, 1.5% below the expected percentage. Our Rim finishing went down a little. Our opponents shot 34% from three. 2% above the expected percentage.

The North Carolina game is a great example of this. We lost 95-63. Our SQ result was 87-74 L.

Are their other factors at play, sure. Two of our three seniors were playing their worst basketball at the end of the season.
Our coaches needed tighten rotations more.  And overall this team needs to get on the offensive glass more and draw more fouls than they did this year.

But overall it was shot making, as trivial as it may seem.

Gang, UNC was bad, period. WE FAILED!

Shame is the appropriate emotion for Marquette after the UNC Debacle.

Nothing, and I mean nothing, compares to the debacle that was Miami of Ohio in March 1978. That was the worst and probably de-sensitized me to the problems that were, at the time, coming attractions. The UNC game was no where near that bad but, folks, don't get me wrong, it's like saying murder and cannibalism is worse than murder. Both are awful!

This year's roster was put together almost at the last minute. There was some hope DJ might have come back. When he didn't, Tyler Kolek became our point guard and Morsell entered the picture. I kind of believed Coach Shaka thought he had a chance of keeping Dawson Garcia too. When he didn't, we ended up with OMax. While we flunked the final, I actually give Coach Shaka a world of credit for getting as much as he did from JLew and Oso. In particular, Oso's growth from an enigma on the last coach's roster to an important part of Coach Shaka's rotations speaks volumes to what Coach Shaka is doing.

I share Brother Goose's view that Coach Shaka is the real thing. I sure hope so as he's, on paper, the guy we've been waiting for -- for a long time. He looks to be someone who can build a program and will stay with us for 20+ years.

JUST FIX IT!!!!! This should be our motto for 2022-2023.

The team didn't shoot very well and didn't rebound almost at all.  The team's bigs look like pipe cleaners.  the team needs to get bigger ,stronger, rebound better and figure out what a good shot looks like.  It is no surprise that a team that depends on a high volum of steals and turn overs to offset lack of shooting and rebounding would be vulnerable to the seeming random blowout.  Especialy given that the team turns the ball over 12 plus times a game themselves.  Not rocket science.

Quote from: dgies9156 on March 24, 2022, 10:43:07 AM
Gang, UNC was bad, period.

What?

Kam losing minutes to Greg wasn't ideal.

Quote from: willie warrior on March 24, 2022, 08:27:18 AM
Amen.

you and Farley, spot on. My concern is attitude. By the first tv timeout vs UNC it seemed the fight, the will to win, with the exception of a player or two, was gone. The team tapped out. How else do you explain such an a$$ kick? Leadership within the team? As I recall, Marquette made nice comebacks at UConn and at Butler, only to fall short. Otherwise, imo if you throw a jab hook combo at MU early, the corner will waive the white towel. Talent for sure, but the mental aspect of the game is huge.

Last time I looked, UNC is playing in the Sweet 16 this weekend. What's bad was our talent. Put it another way, Shaka highly overachieved given the stiffs he was working with. And, I discount last Spring's recruiting class, given the timing of his hire and such. No doubt, Smart is the right man at the right time to drive the Uptown train, aina?

Greg is for sure gone right?

Keepin' my fingers crossed, hey?

Quote from: jaygall31 on March 24, 2022, 11:14:36 AM
Greg is for sure gone right?

From your lips to God's ears.

Quote from: Clarissa on March 24, 2022, 10:57:16 AM
What?

Wording.  I believe he's saying "[MU's performance against] UNC was bad, period."

Quote from: 4everwarriors on March 24, 2022, 11:12:56 AM
Last time I looked, UNC is playing in the Sweet 16 this weekend. What's bad was our talent. Put it another way, Shaka highly overachieved given the stiffs he was working with. And, I discount last Spring's recruiting class, given the timing of his hire and such. No doubt, Smart is the right man at the right time to drive the Uptown train, aina?

I'm not going to give him the complete "not enough talent" pass because IMO I think the team lacked defensively what it was doing earlier in the year and that was more about effort than anything else.

But for people saying that Shaka was being "subborn," I am not exactly sure what people expected him to do.  He had inexperienced and incomplete point guards, post players getting tossed around like rag dolls, one-trick ponies like Joplin and Jones coming off the bench, and his first team BE player going REAL cold when it mattered most. 

Reading this whole thread is depressing as hell. It's a catalog of our failures, embarrassments and screw-ups over a long, long time span. Been around for all of them. I guess the first big one for me was the OSU screw job with the Dream fouling out. One thing seems clear - MU doesn't get it done a hell of a lot more often than it does, and when they don't, they do it in mortifying ways.

I'm with the guys who don't rank this latest as a biggie. New coach, kind of a last-minute roster, many news faces, not much experience - getting to the dance constitutes an achievement.

I'm also with the guys who are worried about next year, and the ongoing years. The incoming frosh are not dripping with high ratings, and none of them are likely to help our woeful rebounding. The transfers are going to be key, but we have to get better on the glass. It's great to stress defense, defense, and defense but when the opponents get an offensive rebound, that's what their possessions turn into - defense, defense again, and defense again. Even a top-notch D can't get you W's like that.

Maybe this is the time frame when we see what Shaka's got. I think we'll be in a much better position to evaluate Shaka in a year's time.

Quote from: 4everwarriors on March 24, 2022, 11:12:56 AM
Last time I looked, UNC is playing in the Sweet 16 this weekend. What's bad was our talent. Put it another way, Shaka highly overachieved given the stiffs he was working with. And, I discount last Spring's recruiting class, given the timing of his hire and such. No doubt, Smart is the right man at the right time to drive the Uptown train, aina?

4ever, I didn't see this when I was typing. Impressive! You've gotten away from the lame schtick -
good for you!

Quote from: jaygall31 on March 24, 2022, 11:14:36 AM
Greg is for sure gone right?

On senior night he made some comments about this being his last game at the Fiserv. Could certianly change his mind but it sounds like he is moving on.

Some of y'all need to get laid more often

Quote from: Clarissa on March 24, 2022, 10:57:16 AM
What?

Apparently now Clarissa thinks UNC wasn't even a bad loss.  😂😂😂😂

Quote from: Viper on March 24, 2022, 11:09:23 AM
you and Farley, spot on. My concern is attitude. By the first tv timeout vs UNC it seemed the fight, the will to win, with the exception of a player or two, was gone. The team tapped out. How else do you explain such an a$$ kick? Leadership within the team? As I recall, Marquette made nice comebacks at UConn and at Butler, only to fall short. Otherwise, imo if you throw a jab hook combo at MU early, the corner will waive the white towel. Talent for sure, but the mental aspect of the game is huge.

Exactly!

Farley

Only an idiot with think the UNC was anything but an ass kicking and embarrassing. IMO, only a bigger idiot would be comparing the UNC blasting to any previous NCAA failure.

Quote from: Goose on March 24, 2022, 11:52:27 AM
Farley

Only an idiot with think the UNC was anything but an ass kicking and embarrassing. IMO, only a bigger idiot would be comparing the UNC blasting to any previous NCAA failure.

Apparently there are plenty of idiots on this board because the general consensus appears to be that the UNC loss was no big deal.

Quote from: Farley36 on March 24, 2022, 11:55:25 AM
Apparently there are plenty of idiots on this board because the general consensus appears to be that the UNC loss was no big deal.

Is it possible for something to be both an ass kicking/embarrassment and also no big deal?

Quote from: hairy worthen on March 24, 2022, 07:51:43 AM
Patience Willie, sustained success is coming.

UNC- a really good team that underperformed during the season to earn a lower seed than they should have been. MU- an average talented team that overperformed to earn a higher seed than they should have been. Perfect storm of teams going in opposite directions. Simple as that to me. Shaka coached his ass off to get his team a higher seed than the talent warranted.

Well he needs to recruit his ass off to upgrade the talent level from 3 star

Quote from: Hards_Alumni on March 24, 2022, 10:00:36 AM
Believe me when I say this willie; I never give you a single thought outside of your constant Eeyore comments on this board.

I don't believe you. And stop rationalizing
Let the late season burnout remind you of how much further Shaka/MU must improve from their current mid major level.

Quote from: rocky_warrior on March 24, 2022, 11:20:46 AM
Wording.  I believe he's saying "[MU's performance against] UNC was bad, period."

OK that makes sense.  I thought he meant that they weren't a good team.  Carry on...

Quote from: Farley36 on March 24, 2022, 11:55:25 AM
Apparently there are plenty of idiots on this board because the general consensus appears to be that the UNC loss was no big deal.

No way that it was no big deal. And even more of a big deal was the way the team played down the stretch. 3 losses to Creighton including in BEast tourney. Ass kicking by DePaul and then UNC

Willie

I love four and five star guys as much as the next guy, but there are plenty of three star guys playing this weekend. I always laugh when I see someone on here saw a guy in their town play and MU has to have them. Only can speak for myself, but when I watch a high school game, or college for that matter, I usually can tell the best kid on the court or close the best on the court and I would have no idea if the kid was a three, four or five star unless I knew beforehand. My point, I have no problem with Shaka recruiting, at this point, regardless of ranking. Once here the kids he recruits to perform and win basketball games.

Quote from: Uncle Rico on March 24, 2022, 11:48:30 AM
Some of y'all need to get laid more often

The fear is, they are.

Quote from: willie warrior on March 24, 2022, 12:22:39 PM
I don't believe you. And stop rationalizing
Let the late season burnout remind you of how much further Shaka/MU must improve from their current mid major level.

Again, find a new hobby.  This one doesn't suit you.

Quote from: Goose on March 24, 2022, 11:52:27 AM
Farley

Only an idiot with think the UNC was anything but an ass kicking and embarrassing. IMO, only a bigger idiot would be comparing the UNC blasting to any previous NCAA failure.

?????????  The UNC blasting was minor.  It sucked, but UNC was criminally under-seeded, and we were picked 9th in the BEAST.

Quote from: Hards_Alumni on March 25, 2022, 06:27:26 AM
?????????  The UNC blasting was minor.  It sucked, but UNC was criminally under-seeded, and we were picked 9th in the BEAST.

Carolina was a bubble team deep into February.  They weren't underseeded.  They entered the tournament 30th in KenPom.  They underachieved, maybe, but they weren't underseeded based on results

Quote from: Hards_Alumni on March 25, 2022, 06:27:26 AM
?????????  The UNC blasting was minor.  It sucked, but UNC was criminally under-seeded, and we were picked 9th in the BEAST.

Unc is performing above their seed but were seeded appropriately.

Hards

The UNC game was an ass kicking and embarrassing, but far from the low point of my MU memories. As TAMU noted, it can be an ass kicking and not a big deal at the same time.

The entire ACC seems to have been underseeded.

Carolina went 15-5 and finished tied for second in the ACC. In no world is that an 8 seed.

Quote from: Goose on March 25, 2022, 06:33:00 AM
Hards

The UNC game was an ass kicking and embarrassing, but far from the low point of my MU memories. As TAMU noted, it can be an ass kicking and not a big deal at the same time.

Gotcha, so we are in agreement.

Quote from: Uncle Rico on March 25, 2022, 06:30:45 AM
Carolina was a bubble team deep into February.  They weren't underseeded.  They entered the tournament 30th in KenPom.  They underachieved, maybe, but they weren't underseeded based on results

They lost three games since 1/22 but okay.

Quote from: WithoutBias on March 25, 2022, 06:37:22 AM
The entire ACC seems to have been underseeded.

Carolina went 15-5 and finished tied for second in the ACC. In no world is that an 8 seed.

It is this year with how poor the bottom of the ACC was.

Quote from: Hards_Alumni on March 25, 2022, 06:40:35 AM
They lost three games since 1/22 but okay.

The ACC wasn't good this year. 

Also, one of those losses was a 20-point home loss to Duke.  They also lost at home to Pitt and by 13 to VaTech.  They needed overtime to beat Syracuse at home. 

Quote from: Hards_Alumni on March 25, 2022, 06:27:26 AM
?????????  The UNC blasting was minor.  It sucked, but UNC was criminally under-seeded, and we were picked 9th in the BEAST.

I wish people would stop citing the Big East preseason predictions as if they're some sort of predestination that MU miraculously overcame. The preseason rankings kinda sucked and should not be taken seriously as a measure of a team's success.

Preseason (actual in parentheses)
1. Villanova (2)
2. UConn (3)
3. Xavier  (7)
4. St. John's (8)
5. Seton Hall (5)
6. Butler(10)
7. Providence (1)
8. Creighton (4)
9. Marquette (6)
10. Georgetown (11)
11. DePaul (9)

Quote from: Pakuni on March 25, 2022, 09:06:55 AM
I wish people would stop citing the Big East preseason predictions as if they're some sort of predestination that MU miraculously overcame. The preseason rankings kinda sucked and should not be taken seriously as a measure of a team's success.

Preseason (actual in parentheses)
1. Villanova (2)
2. UConn (3)
3. Xavier  (7)
4. St. John's (8)
5. Seton Hall (5)
6. Butler(10)
7. Providence (1)
8. Creighton (4)
9. Marquette (6)
10. Georgetown (11)
11. DePaul (9)

Ah, so how do you suggest we create expectations for a season?  Should there be none?  Kenpom's starting value for Marquette was 87.. which placed it 9th in the Big East.

    Villanova — #9
    Connecticut — #21
    Xavier — #26
    Seton Hall — #50
    St. John's — #51
    Creighton — #53
    Butler — #55
    Georgetown — #76
    Providence — #85
    Marquette — #87
    DePaul — #140

https://www.anonymouseagle.com/2021/10/17/22731118/marquette-golden-eagles-mens-basketball-preseason-kenpom-ranking-rating-shaka-smart

Quote from: Goose on March 25, 2022, 06:33:00 AM
Hards

The UNC game was an ass kicking and embarrassing, but far from the low point of my MU memories. As TAMU noted, it can be an ass kicking and not a big deal at the same time.

IT WAS A CURB-STOMPING, MU GOTTA WEAR IT ALL OFF-SEASON

Quote from: Hards_Alumni on March 25, 2022, 09:19:22 AM
Ah, so how do you suggest we create expectations for a season?  Should there be none?  Kenpom's starting value for Marquette was 87.. which placed it 9th in the Big East.

    Villanova — #9
    Connecticut — #21
    Xavier — #26
    Seton Hall — #50
    St. John's — #51
    Creighton — #53
    Butler — #55
    Georgetown — #76
    Providence — #85
    Marquette — #87
    DePaul — #140

https://www.anonymouseagle.com/2021/10/17/22731118/marquette-golden-eagles-mens-basketball-preseason-kenpom-ranking-rating-shaka-smart

Actually that's 10th.

Quote from: muwarrior97 on March 25, 2022, 09:27:37 AM
IT WAS A CURB-STOMPING, MU GOTTA WEAR IT ALL OFF-SEASON

yup.(RED won't let us forget)

Quote from: TAMU Eagle on March 25, 2022, 09:31:40 AM
Actually that's 10th.

Sorry I'm dumb.  I just want to know what way is the best to evaluate a team at the beginning of a season so I can correctly judge them when they over perform or under perform.

I think it's ok to say the team as a whole overachieved through the whole season while still saying the last couple weeks of the season were a let down.

Both can be true.

Quote from: Hards_Alumni on March 25, 2022, 09:19:22 AM
Ah, so how do you suggest we create expectations for a season?  Should there be none?  Kenpom's starting value for Marquette was 87.. which placed it 9th in the Big East.

If you want to obsess or make a big deal about preseason rankings, by all means have it. Just do so knowing that they're not particularly accurate or valuable.
I mean, Kenpom's preseason top 25 included:
#2 Michigan
#5 Illinois
#8 Ohio State
#14 Texas
#18 Maryland
#24 Florida State
#25 Florida

And knowing KenPom's preseason rankings are based largely on projections from prior seasons' results, how seriously should we take them in regards to a team that has:
- 9 new players who've never played together
- A new staff implementing a new scheme with which none of the players are familiar
- A first option who was a bench player the previous season
- A starting point guard who played off the ball in a lower conference the previous season
- A second option who was used primarily as a defensive stopper the previous season
- Almost an entire roster - arguably Greg excepted- playing in a significantly different role and environment than they had the year before.

So, what's the value of a preseason projection based on results that came under very different circumstances?
I think the answer we saw is not much value at all.

Quote from: panda on March 25, 2022, 09:39:13 AM
I think it's ok to say the team as a whole overachieved through the whole season while still saying the last couple weeks of the season were a let down.

Both can be true.

Yep.

Quote from: Pakuni on March 25, 2022, 09:47:25 AM
If you want to obsess or make a big deal about preseason rankings, by all means have it. Just do so knowing that they're not particularly accurate or valuable.
I mean, Kenpom's preseason top 25 included:
#2 Michigan
#5 Illinois
#8 Ohio State
#14 Texas
#18 Maryland
#24 Florida State
#25 Florida

And knowing KenPom's preseason rankings are based largely on projections from prior seasons' results, how seriously should we take them in regards to a team that has:
- 9 new players who've never played together
- A new staff implementing a new scheme with which none of the players are familiar
- A first option who was a bench player the previous season
- A starting point guard who played off the ball in a lower conference the previous season
- A second option who was used primarily as a defensive stopper the previous season
- Almost an entire roster - arguably Greg excepted- playing in a significantly different role and environment than they had the year before.

So, what's the value of a preseason projection based on results that came under very different circumstances?
I think the answer we saw is not much value at all.

Okay, so no evaluation, got it.

Quote from: Pakuni on March 25, 2022, 09:47:25 AM
If you want to obsess or make a big deal about preseason rankings, by all means have it. Just do so knowing that they're not particularly accurate or valuable.
I mean, Kenpom's preseason top 25 included:
#2 Michigan
#5 Illinois
#8 Ohio State
#14 Texas
#18 Maryland
#24 Florida State
#25 Florida

And knowing KenPom's preseason rankings are based largely on projections from prior seasons' results, how seriously should we take them in regards to a team that has:
- 9 new players who've never played together
- A new staff implementing a new scheme with which none of the players are familiar
- A first option who was a bench player the previous season
- A starting point guard who played off the ball in a lower conference the previous season
- A second option who was used primarily as a defensive stopper the previous season
- Almost an entire roster - arguably Greg excepted- playing in a significantly different role and environment than they had the year before.

So, what's the value of a preseason projection based on results that came under very different circumstances?
I think the answer we saw is not much value at all.

I think you just made the point about why MU fans are being idiots if they are b*tching about this season.  And, all of the bolded factors are ones that KenPom's model can't really project/forecast and all of the listed factors would point toward challenge.

Quote from: Hards_Alumni on March 25, 2022, 10:00:08 AM
Okay, so no evaluation, got it.

Yes, that's exactly what I wrote.
Thanks for your thoughtful response.

Quote from: Pakuni on March 25, 2022, 10:05:00 AM
Yes, that's exactly what I wrote.
Thanks for your thoughtful response.

You didn't answer his original question though. What do you think is the best way to set preseason expectations?

I think you are correct that no preseason expectations are ever going to be pinpoint accurate and there will always be ones that projections get massively wrong, but that doesn't mean that they are completely useless.

Quote from: TAMU Eagle on March 25, 2022, 10:12:07 AM
You didn't answer his original question though. What do you think is the best way to set preseason expectations?

I think you are correct that no preseason expectations are ever going to be pinpoint accurate and there will always be ones that projections get massively wrong, but that doesn't mean that they are completely useless.

1. I don't know if there's a "best" way, nor do I think it's terribly important. But obviously it would be based primarily on an evaluation of the talent on the roster, combined with how it's expected to be used, combined with expected progress from the previous season. 

2. No one said KenPom is completely useless. For a team with a bunch returning players, the same staff, same scheme, etc., it's great. But for a team like MU - new staff, new scheme, nine new players, nearly every player taking on a new role - a projection based on past results cannot possibly be accurate. There are simply too many unknowns. Kolek's season as an off guard in the A-10 can't predict how he'd run the point in the Big East. Justin's performance as a 6th/7th mam can't accurately tell us how he'll fare as the first offensive option in a different scheme. Kam's play at a small Memphis high school can't predict with any certainty how he'd fare playing 20 minutes a night in the Big East.

So, maybe you can take a crack at my question.  What's the value of a KenPom-type preseason prediction for a team that went wholesale changes like MU? I mean, other than something to argue about on the internet.

An interesting observation whenever someone says something like "Marquette was picked to finish 9th so we overachieved":

Nobody ever mentions the other teams. 

We were picked 9th ahead of DePaul and Georgetown.  We finished in a tie for 5th, unexpectedly ahead of Xavier, St. John's and Butler. 

It is entirely possible that we moved up only because Xavier, Butler & St. Johns dropped like stones. 

Xavier was picked 3rd, finished 7th--four places below their predicted finish
St. Johns was picked 4th, finished 8th--four places below their predicted finish
Butler was picked 6th, finished in a tie for 9th--three places below their predicted finish.

We clearly overachieved.  We were coming off a 13-14 season, we lost our all 5 starters/our top 5 scorers, we fired our coach, and we brought in like 9 new players, only one of which had ever started at the high major level before.  And 0 of which were 5 star freshman/one and done talent.  Even the most optimistic expectations were to be a bubble team that might find itself on the right side of the cut line, and that's if everything went right.  I don't know what KenPom projected our record to be, but I'm guessing it wasn't over .500 in the Big East.  We ended up being 11-8 in conference and a 9 seed in the Tournament, having locked up a spot about a month ahead of the Tournament.

I don't know how anyone could debate whether we overachieved or exceeded any rational expectations.

That's not to say this is a great Marquette basketball season.  But given that it probably should've been a very rough season, we overachieved.  Now it's time to add talent and get to the point where the expectation is to be competing to play in the second weekend in the Tournament.  That's the challenge.

Quote from: Pakuni on March 25, 2022, 10:32:09 AM
1. I don't know if there's a "best" way, nor do I think it's terribly important. But obviously it would be based primarily on an evaluation of the talent on the roster, combined with how it's expected to be used, combined with expected progress from the previous season. 

2. No one said KenPom is completely useless. For a team with a bunch returning players, the same staff, same scheme, etc., it's great. But for a team like MU - new staff, new scheme, nine new players, nearly every player taking on a new role - a projection based on past results cannot possibly be accurate. There are simply too many unknowns. Kolek's season as an off guard in the A-10 can't predict how he'd run the point in the Big East. Justin's performance as a 6th/7th mam can't accurately tell us how he'll fare as the first offensive option in a different scheme. Kam's play at a small Memphis high school can't predict with any certainty how he'd fare playing 20 minutes a night in the Big East.

So, maybe you can take a crack at my question.  What's the value of a KenPom-type preseason prediction for a team that went wholesale changes like MU? I mean, other than something to argue about on the internet.

I think the value is that it provides an objective baseline on which to judge the results of the season.  It's not a perfect one obviously and it also has nothing to do with whether or not this was a "good" season or not. But for me it helps separate out what % of our success is based on the talent recruited, and what % is based on the coaches. And some may say that doesn't work because maybe the projections just overrate or underrate the talent, but I would say that speaks to a coach's ability to properly identify talent.

Quote from: The Equalizer on March 25, 2022, 11:15:34 AM
An interesting observation whenever someone says something like "Marquette was picked to finish 9th so we overachieved":

Nobody ever mentions the other teams. 

We were picked 9th ahead of DePaul and Georgetown.  We finished in a tie for 5th, unexpectedly ahead of Xavier, St. John's and Butler. 

It is entirely possible that we moved up only because Xavier, Butler & St. Johns dropped like stones. 

Xavier was picked 3rd, finished 7th--four places below their predicted finish
St. Johns was picked 4th, finished 8th--four places below their predicted finish
Butler was picked 6th, finished in a tie for 9th--three places below their predicted finish.

Considering you are the poster who was all over Tom Crean's jock, while consistently being critical of Buzz Williams, care to share with us what you think of Georgia's season?

It is entirely possible that we moved up because Shaka Smart did a great job in Year 1.  Period.

Yes!

Quote from: The Equalizer on March 25, 2022, 11:15:34 AM
An interesting observation whenever someone says something like "Marquette was picked to finish 9th so we overachieved":

Nobody ever mentions the other teams. 

We were picked 9th ahead of DePaul and Georgetown.  We finished in a tie for 5th, unexpectedly ahead of Xavier, St. John's and Butler. 

It is entirely possible that we moved up only because Xavier, Butler & St. Johns dropped like stones. 

Xavier was picked 3rd, finished 7th--four places below their predicted finish
St. Johns was picked 4th, finished 8th--four places below their predicted finish
Butler was picked 6th, finished in a tie for 9th--three places below their predicted finish.

What I had read over and over again was that there was a bunch-up in the middle of the Big East this year. Everyone thought Villanova and UConn would be good. Everyone thought Butler, DePaul and Georgetown would be bad. The rest -- Creighton, us, Xavier, St. John's, Seton Hall and Providence -- were a crap shoot.

Nobody should be arguing we we didn't achieve this year. Most folks who evaluated us in September us didn't think much of what Coach Shaka had assembled and we surely outperformed expectations.

When you get a taste of what might be, it's awful hard to go back to what was expected or, frankly, to what we saw at season's end. The drubbing by North Carolina made no sense in light of what we did twice to Villanova -- a Sweet 16 team -- and once to Providence -- also a Sweet 16 team. How can a team be so good and then so bad?

Shame.

Quote from: TAMU Eagle on March 25, 2022, 10:12:07 AM
You didn't answer his original question though. What do you think is the best way to set preseason expectations?

I think you are correct that no preseason expectations are ever going to be pinpoint accurate and there will always be ones that projections get massively wrong, but that doesn't mean that they are completely useless.

Correct.  I was just showing Pak that I'm learning from him every day.   ;D

Quote from: TAMU Eagle on March 25, 2022, 10:12:07 AM
You didn't answer his original question though. What do you think is the best way to set preseason expectations?

I think you are correct that no preseason expectations are ever going to be pinpoint accurate and there will always be ones that projections get massively wrong, but that doesn't mean that they are completely useless.

Not true - every year I am told exactly what to expect by the Value Add ratings glorified here. 

Then comes Kenpom pre-season ratings and it's 100% accuracy. 

And let's not mention the certainty the basketball experts on this board informed us this past year's team would routinely score in the 50's. 

Quote from: PointWarrior on March 25, 2022, 01:14:54 PM
Not true - every year I am told exactly what to expect by the Value Add ratings glorified here. 

Then comes Kenpom pre-season ratings and it's 100% accuracy. 

And let's not mention the certainty the basketball experts on this board informed us this past year's team would routinely score in the 50's.

Who has ever said KenPom is 100% accurate?

Once Kenpom ratings come out, I am not sure why they even bother to play the actual games...

Quote from: Uncle Rico on March 25, 2022, 01:18:21 PM
Who has ever said KenPom is 100% accurate?

Quote from: PointWarrior on March 25, 2022, 01:21:54 PM
Once Kenpom ratings come out, I am not sure why they even bother to play the actual games...

Whoever said that?

I count 17 posters...

Quote from: Uncle Rico on March 25, 2022, 01:22:38 PM
Whoever said that?

Quote from: PointWarrior on March 25, 2022, 01:34:44 PM
I count 17 posters...

Who said they shouldn't play the games?  KenPom is one tool used to assess a team heading into a season, during a season and after a season.

Marquette began the season 87th which isn't very good.  The high point of the season was 23 after they defeated Villanova for the 2nd time.  They are currently 57th which is about right given the finish of the season.

They improved 30 spots which is pretty good and achieved a high not many expected, also pretty good.  I'd say the metrics have been pretty spot on for this team

If they didn't play the games, it sure would save on travel costs.

Quote from: Clarissa on March 25, 2022, 01:46:06 PM
If they didn't play the games, it sure would save on travel costs.

TV revenue would suffer

Quote from: Uncle Rico on March 25, 2022, 01:49:05 PM
TV revenue would suffer

Just run really slow kenpom simulation for 2 hours with commercial breaks.

Quote from: rocky_warrior on March 25, 2022, 03:20:42 PM
Just run really slow kenpom simulation for 2 hours with commercial breaks.

Better officiating

And endless complaints about officiating.

Quote from: Clarissa on March 25, 2022, 01:46:06 PM
If they didn't play the games, it sure would save on travel costs.