Current KenPom: 38
Likely NC record: 9-3
Losses: WI (8), Pitt (59), Michigan (31)
Wins: Vandy (77) Georgia (61)
Based on the strength of the BE, MU will play 12 of their next 18 games against top 50 teams (including Providence at 51). A 10-8 BE record should be a lock; a 9-9 with a W in the BET could also work.
I'd put the odds at an at-large bid at exactly 50/50. May come down to the last week of the season @ XU and vs. Creighton. Put the Wisky L and transfer in the rear-view and move on. Every game is important from here on out.
Many scoopers will disagree with me.
But, right now we have 0 bad losses (some might say Pitt is semibad).
My goal coming into this season was high NIT or low NCAA seed. (Of course I want NCAA).
I agree about it coming down to the last week but more importantly I think the games against butler and providence are the most important games.
Quote from: fjm on December 15, 2016, 10:13:39 AM
Many scoopers will disagree with me.
But, right now we have 0 bad losses (some might say Pitt is semibad).
My goal coming into this season was high NIT or low NCAA seed. (Of course I want NCAA).
I agree about it coming down to the last week but more importantly I think the games against butler and providence are the most important games.
I agree with this. Hopefully we end the year with no bad losses.
On paper Pitt is not a bad loss. However we had a double digit lead in the second half and therefore it is a bad loss. We be in much better shape at this point, if we had not lost to Pitt.
Quote from: bilsu on December 15, 2016, 10:36:26 AM
On paper Pitt is not a bad loss. However we had a double digit lead in the second half and therefore it is a bad loss. We be in much better shape at this point, if we had not lost to Pitt.
It is a loss that isn't a bad loss but that should've been a solid win on a neutral court. But the good thing is that chances are we will steal a win that we shouldn't have won somewhere down the line, because those also usually happen throughout a season. Those things tend to even out and, as we all know, you are what your record says you are.
Now that Carter is gone, the season comes down to Howard's health. If Mo gets hurt we are toast. Rowsey and Duane cannot handle the point.
Quote from: ecompt on December 15, 2016, 10:50:22 AM
Now that Carter is gone, the season comes down to Howard's health. If Mo gets hurt we are toast. Rowsey and Duane cannot handle the point.
HC could run point right?
Quote from: ecompt on December 15, 2016, 10:50:22 AM
Now that Carter is gone, the season comes down to Howard's health. If Mo gets hurt we are toast. Rowsey and Duane cannot handle the point.
It also comes down to Fischer's health...and Cheatham's...and Hauser's...
Quote from: MerrittsMustache on December 15, 2016, 10:54:29 AM
It also comes down to Fischer's health...and Cheatham's...and Hauser's...
And the rest of the team's health..
DW better start getting more minutes he's a solid player.
MU's big picture key to the season is to win the games that they're supposed to win and pull out a couple of the 50/50 games.
RPI Wizard has MU going 8-10 in the BE with MU losing each of the following winnable games...
Opp (Win Prob)
at SHU (47%)
Butler (49%)
Xavier (49%)
at Prov (48%)
Creighton (43%)
If MU takes care of business otherwise and wins just 2 of those games, that gets them to 10 conference wins. If either of those wins comes against Butler, Creighton or X, MU is dancing. A road win against Prov or SHU would be enough to vault MU ahead of them on the bubble and likely puts them in as well. That said, if MU drops games to DePaul and/or St. John's, they could be in trouble.
Again, win the games they're supposed to win. Steal a couple 50/50 games and all will be right in the Marquette universe!
Quote from: MerrittsMustache on December 15, 2016, 11:06:58 AM
MU's big picture key to the season is to win the games that they're supposed to win and pull out a couple of the 50/50 games.
RPI Wizard has MU going 8-10 in the BE with MU losing each of the following winnable games...
Opp (Win Prob)
at SHU (47%)
Butler (49%)
Xavier (49%)
at Prov (48%)
Creighton (43%)
If MU takes care of business otherwise and wins just 2 of those games, that gets them to 10 conference wins. If either of those wins comes against Butler, Creighton or X, MU is dancing. A road win against Prov or SHU would be enough to vault MU ahead of them on the bubble and likely puts them in as well. That said, if MU drops games to DePaul and/or St. John's, they could be in trouble.
Again, win the games they're supposed to win. Steal a couple 50/50 games and all will be right in the Marquette universe!
I feel like we can beat Creighton, X, and Butler we just have to stay healthy and D up
The good news - all of our scholarship players are capable of contributing. The bad news - we are short enough on scholarship players that an injury to any of them could make or break our season.
If our remaining players avoid injury troubles, I like our chances.
More reason for a .500 team in the BE to make the NCAA:
http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology/conference?scrlybrkr=f2bb4577#
BE is the #1 conference.
I break our BE schedule into months...we go 10-8.
DECEMBER (1-0)
1 game - have to beat GT at home. This is a bellwether game...sure we could go 17-0 after losing it but reality says this defines a vector...down or up.
JANUARY (3-5)
Don't have to be great just at a minimum win every home game except for NOVA. low expectations...only 3 wins necessary...anything more is gravy.
FEBRUARY (5-2)
We've played, matured and hopefully no ones hurt...time for Wojo to growup, time for Freshmen to growup, time for seniors to lead...time to win...Wins away at STJ,DP,GT Win at home STJ, and one win among XAV, BUT, @PRV
MARCH (1-1)
We're 9-7 at this point and we can prove a point with a Win @XAV or home vs CR.
It might be 0-2 if we're hurt or worn down or underachieving...but if I have it right we go 10-8 baby!
Quote from: Dr. Vinnie Boombatz on December 15, 2016, 10:55:17 AM
Poorly.
Is it just me, or is Sultan in a particularly pissy mood today?
MU has to go 10-8 as a minimum level to get in and we will be playing 12 out of 18 games against top 50 KenPom teams (including Prov at 51). So assuming we beat all the non-top 50 games (including Georgetown twice - #58) we'd be 6-0 in those games, meaning we'd have to be 4 out of 10 top 50 games....which is doable but then when the committee looks at the record we'd be 19-11 with a 4-10 record against Top 50 teams....that's not great.
I think for us to feel at all comfortable, we need to go 11-7 in Big East at least.
Possible, but not probable
Quote from: mu03eng on December 15, 2016, 12:25:53 PMI think for us to feel at all comfortable, we need to go 11-7 in Big East at least.
10-8 gets us squarely on the bubble, 11-7 gets us in the tournament. Big East Tournament only matters if we win it. 1-2 wins without a tourney title will likely have absolutely zero impact on our chances of getting a bid.
Quote from: brewcity77 on December 15, 2016, 12:51:06 PM
10-8 gets us squarely on the bubble, 11-7 gets us in the tournament. Big East Tournament only matters if we win it. 1-2 wins without a tourney title will likely have absolutely zero impact on our chances of getting a bid.
Here's the question...do you think we can go 10-8?
Quote from: brewcity77 on December 15, 2016, 12:51:06 PM
10-8 gets us squarely on the bubble, 11-7 gets us in the tournament. Big East Tournament only matters if we win it. 1-2 wins without a tourney title will likely have absolutely zero impact on our chances of getting a bid.
At 10-8? You don't think two more wins in NYC would matter? I do.
I think we're in OK shape at 10-8. 19-12 going into NYC. 1-1 gets us at 20-13. Likely an RPI in 60s. That's a bubble team for sure, but hopefully on the right side.
11-7 and we're in, but that may be a tall task.
Need to win our home games. 8-1 at home. Win at Depaul and at St. Johns. That is 10 wins right there. Then just need a steal one somewhere. @ Prov and @ Gtown would be best opportunities. Although a road win over the top half of the league would certainly help.
Quote from: wadesworld on December 15, 2016, 10:41:13 AM
It is a loss that isn't a bad loss but that should've been a solid win on a neutral court. But the good thing is that chances are we will steal a win that we shouldn't have won somewhere down the line, because those also usually happen throughout a season. Those things tend to even out and, as we all know, you are what your record says you are.
It is what it is, ai'na?
Quote from: JamilJaeJamailJrJuan on December 15, 2016, 12:57:22 PM
At 10-8? You don't think two more wins in NYC would matter? I do.
I think we're in OK shape at 10-8. 19-12 going into NYC. 1-1 gets us at 20-13. Likely an RPI in 60s. That's a bubble team for sure, but hopefully on the right side.
Depends on who those two wins are against. If they are against DePaul and Georgetown(assuming they continue to under perform) those wins are eh in the grand scheme of things. If they are Georgetown and Villanova, that's a whole other thing.
I'm with Brew, more than likely we'd have to show up in the finals of the BET to have any impact on in or out. If we are solidly in then those games only matter on the seed line
10 BE wins we're in. 9 we need 2 BET wins. 11 and we're a stone cold lock.
Something else to think about...A 10-8 BE record could potentially pin MU against another .500ish bubble team in the 1st Round of the BET. You'd figure it would set them up to play #1 or 2 in the 2nd Round. That 1st Round game could essentially become a Tourney play-in game.
9-9 with a BET win against someone like Butler or Xavier would likely be enough. If MU plays DePaul or St. John's in the 7-10 game, we'd still need a second win.
Quote from: Lazar's Headband on December 15, 2016, 01:47:08 PM
9-9 with a BET win against someone like Butler or Xavier would likely be enough. If MU plays DePaul or St. John's in the 7-10 game, we'd still need a second win.
This I agree with. But it'd be hard to get 2 BE tourney wins against teams that don't matter.
Quote from: JamilJaeJamailJrJuan on December 15, 2016, 12:57:22 PM
Need to win our home games. 8-1 at home. Win at Depaul and at St. Johns. That is 10 wins right there.
With 8-1 at home, and beating DePaul and SJU on the road, RPI Wizard puts us at RPI: 48. Hopefully in, but definitely bubble.
If we win at Georgetown, it jumps to RPI: 38 and we should be in for sure.
Quote from: Litehouse on December 15, 2016, 02:26:51 PM
With 8-1 at home, and beating DePaul and SJU on the road, RPI Wizard puts us at RPI: 48. Hopefully in, but definitely bubble.
If we win at Georgetown, it jumps to RPI: 38 and we should be in for sure.
I see us more at 4 road wins, 6 home wins. Which is gonna cut it close. Eek
Quote from: Litehouse on December 15, 2016, 02:26:51 PM
With 8-1 at home, and beating DePaul and SJU on the road, RPI Wizard puts us at RPI: 48. Hopefully in, but definitely bubble.
If we win at Georgetown, it jumps to RPI: 38 and we should be in for sure.
Cool - thanks for doing that. I assume you had our home loss as Nova?
Quote from: JamilJaeJamailJrJuan on December 15, 2016, 12:57:22 PMAt 10-8? You don't think two more wins in NYC would matter? I do.
I think they should, but in recent years it seems like the whole "playing yourself into the tournament" thing doesn't really exist and the expected seeds before there conference tournaments are about where they shake out, no matter how far teams go.
Conference tournaments, in my opinion, are vastly overrated in terms of selection importance by the media and public and unless you weren't going to get in and win it, they are just a fun exhibition for all involved.
Quote from: Lazar's Headband on December 15, 2016, 01:47:08 PM
9-9 with a BET win against someone like Butler or Xavier would likely be enough. If MU plays DePaul or St. John's in the 7-10 game, we'd still need a second win.
False. If we finish 9-9 we are like the 6th or 7th team in the Big East....no matter how good the conference is they are not taking 70% of it to the NCAA especially for a team that doesn't have a top 50 non-conference win.
Quote from: mu03eng on December 15, 2016, 03:24:02 PM
False. If we finish 9-9 we are like the 6th or 7th team in the Big East....no matter how good the conference is they are not taking 70% of it to the NCAA especially for a team that doesn't have a top 50 non-conference win.
The B12 has gotten 70% of its conference into the NCAAs. Came damn near getting 80% one year. The Big East is strong enough that it could get 70% of its teams in. I don't expect it to because the Ws and Ls have to be aligned perfectly. But it is theoretically possible.
It's maybe not impossible, but getting in at 18-12 would surprise me. That'd be a good way to test the "do conference tournaments matter" question as we could possibly win 3 games and not get an auto bid.
Lunardi on Marquette:
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/insider/story/_/id/18284136/gonzaga-bulldogs-best-nonconference-ncaa-tournament-resumes
"Want to know why an otherwise solid Marquette team isn't in our NCAA field? Look only as far as losses to Michigan (neutral), Pitt (neutral) and Wisconsin (home), with no corresponding quality in the win column. Wins over Vanderbilt and Georgia aren't good enough to save the Golden Eagles at this point."
Quote from: MUDPT on December 18, 2016, 10:21:26 PM
Lunardi on Marquette:
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/insider/story/_/id/18284136/gonzaga-bulldogs-best-nonconference-ncaa-tournament-resumes
"Want to know why an otherwise solid Marquette team isn't in our NCAA field? Look only as far as losses to Michigan (neutral), Pitt (neutral) and Wisconsin (home), with no corresponding quality in the win column. Wins over Vanderbilt and Georgia aren't good enough to save the Golden Eagles at this point."
But even with that, he has us really close. Opportunity is there. We just have to seize it.
Quote from: mu03eng on December 15, 2016, 03:24:02 PM
False. If we finish 9-9 we are like the 6th or 7th team in the Big East....no matter how good the conference is they are not taking 70% of it to the NCAA especially for a team that doesn't have a top 50 non-conference win.
Yup. 9-9 with 5 or 6 of the wins over the three bottom feeders gives us no chance at all. Even 10-8 is cutting it too close.
Quote from: fjm on December 15, 2016, 02:30:28 PM
I see us more at 4 road wins, 6 home wins. Which is gonna cut it close. Eek
Isn't he coming in our next class?
Quote from: brewcity77 on December 15, 2016, 04:08:26 PM
It's maybe not impossible, but getting in at 18-12 would surprise me. That'd be a good way to test the "do conference tournaments matter" question as we could possibly win 3 games and not get an auto bid.
Surprised? It's impossible. Why do you bring up Kenpom ratings? Are they going to consider that more now? Committee weighs RPI much more and Marquette's is in the 80s. 9-9 might not even get them into the NIT. Their non conference resume is very average, need to go 10-8 at minimum.
Quote from: mu03eng on December 15, 2016, 03:24:02 PM
False. If we finish 9-9 we are like the 6th or 7th team in the Big East....no matter how good the conference is they are not taking 70% of it to the NCAA especially for a team that doesn't have a top 50 non-conference win.
If Marquette finishes 6th, that would be 60%. Marquette could actually finished tied for 5th at 9-9, lose a 3 way tiebreaker, and end up the 7 seed. It would have to fall just right, but not impossible.
The final MU RPI depends upon whom they play. Beating Butler and losing to Nova is a lot different than beating DePaul and losing to Creighton.
Plus, look at the profiles of the teams that played in Dayton last year. A 19-13 MU profile would be equal or better. 19 wins is squarely on the bubble. Comes down to the rest of the field at that point. I'll have to run the numbers later but I'd put the odds of a bid at roughly 60%.
Quote from: esotericmindguy on December 19, 2016, 09:01:52 AM
Surprised? It's impossible. Why do you bring up Kenpom ratings? Are they going to consider that more now? Committee weighs RPI much more and Marquette's is in the 80s. 9-9 might not even get them into the NIT. Their non conference resume is very average, need to go 10-8 at minimum.
9-9 gets them in the NIT, there is no question about that. The NCAA threshold is much more difficult, likely 11-7 is required but depending on the make up of the 10-8 record, that could work but very tough.
The opponent tonight,
Saint Francis (PA) is #323 in Kenpom.
Will be curious how far MU (38) drops, even with a win tonight.
Quote from: WarriorPride68 on December 19, 2016, 09:14:07 AM
The opponent tonight,
Saint Francis (PA) is #323 in Kenpom.
Will be curious how far MU (38) drops, even with a win tonight.
This isn't exactly how it works....but we're projected for a 26 point win. If we win by 30-40, we will likely move up a little bit. If we win by 15, we are going to drop.
Quote from: Lazar's Headband on December 19, 2016, 09:05:13 AM
If Marquette finishes 6th, that would be 60%. Marquette could actually finished tied for 5th at 9-9, lose a 3 way tiebreaker, and end up the 7 seed. It would have to fall just right, but not impossible.
The final MU RPI depends upon whom they play. Beating Butler and losing to Nova is a lot different than beating DePaul and losing to Creighton.
Plus, look at the profiles of the teams that played in Dayton last year. A 19-13 MU profile would be equal or better. 19 wins is squarely on the bubble. Comes down to the rest of the field at that point. I'll have to run the numbers later but I'd put the odds of a bid at roughly 60%.
For 9-9 to work, there can be no bad losses so that means we have to be 4-0 against St Johns and DePaul. That means we have 5 wins to make a case. You'd think we'd have to beat other BEast bubble teams to have a shot, so 4-0 against Providence and Georgetown leaving us only one other win against Seton Hall, Villanova, Creighton, Butler and Xavier. Not sure the committee takes a team that goes 1-9 against teams that are solidly in the tournament.
If we go something like 2-2 against Providence and Georgetown then we can get 3 wins against the top 5 in conference, but then we are in the mix with Providence and Georgetown for the last spot and their non-con is stronger than ours.
Have to go 10-8 at a minimum to have a bid in my opinion.
Quote from: MuEagle1090 on December 19, 2016, 09:23:04 AM
This isn't exactly how it works....but we're projected for a 26 point win. If we win by 30-40, we will likely move up a little bit. If we win by 15, we are going to drop.
Also depends on how teams around us perform against their expectations as well. We could win by 15 and stay the same/move up. Unlikely but it's all about performance to expectation.
Quote from: MuEagle1090 on December 19, 2016, 09:23:04 AM
This isn't exactly how it works....but we're projected for a 26 point win. If we win by 30-40, we will likely move up a little bit. If we win by 15, we are going to drop.
Nonetheless, my point was it will be interesting to see where MU is tomorrow even with a win
Quote from: esotericmindguy on December 19, 2016, 09:01:52 AM
Surprised? It's impossible. Why do you bring up Kenpom ratings? Are they going to consider that more now? Committee weighs RPI much more and Marquette's is in the 80s. 9-9 might not even get them into the NIT. Their non conference resume is very average, need to go 10-8 at minimum.
It's not impossible if we go into the Big East Tournament and add wins over 10-seed DePaul, 2-seed (and top-10 RPI) Butler and 3-seed (and top-10 RPI) Creighton before losing to #1 overall Villanova. 21-13 (9-9) would definitely give us an indicator of how important the conference tournaments are. My guess is we'd be a 1-seed in the NIT.
Quote from: WarriorPride68 on December 19, 2016, 09:14:07 AM
The opponent tonight,
Saint Francis (PA) is #323 in Kenpom.
Will be curious how far MU (38) drops, even with a win tonight.
SIU is 309
Quote from: brewcity77 on December 19, 2016, 09:31:35 AM
It's not impossible if we go into the Big East Tournament and add wins over 10-seed DePaul, 2-seed (and top-10 RPI) Butler and 3-seed (and top-10 RPI) Creighton before losing to #1 overall Villanova. 21-13 (9-9) would definitely give us an indicator of how important the conference tournaments are. My guess is we'd be a 1-seed in the NIT.
LOL. Run the numbers and see what our profile would be. I like RPI wizard but it sucks on mobile so I can't run the numbers until later.
Quote from: Lazar's Headband on December 19, 2016, 09:40:52 AM
LOL. Run the numbers and see what our profile would be. I like RPI wizard but it sucks on mobile so I can't run the numbers until later.
In this scenario, with a 9-9 conference record and W's in the BET over Creighton, Butler, Depaul, and a loss to Nova....our numbers are projected to be...
W-L RPI* SOS
21-13 43 28
I think we need 11 Big East wins including the conference tournament to be sure of getting a bid.
9-9 +2=11
10-8 +1 = 11
11 wins we are in even with first round Big East tournament loss.
Quote from: bilsu on December 19, 2016, 10:16:47 AM
I think we need 11 Big East wins including the conference tournament to be sure of getting a bid.
9-9 +2=11
10-8 +1 = 11
11 wins we are in even with first round Big East tournament loss.
Agreed. And 10 total wins gets us on the bubble and depends on who else we are on the bubble with and who our 10 wins come against.
Quote from: MuEagle1090 on December 19, 2016, 10:01:58 AM
In this scenario, with a 9-9 conference record and W's in the BET over Creighton, Butler, Depaul, and a loss to Nova....our numbers are projected to be...
W-L RPI* SOS
21-13 43 28
Thanks. That profile, which would have at least 2 top 25 (Butler and Creighton in BET), is not getting left out.
Quote from: Lazar's Headband on December 19, 2016, 10:38:32 AM
Thanks. That profile, which would have at least 2 top 25 (Butler and Creighton in BET), is not getting left out.
I dig it :P
Quote from: Lazar's Headband on December 19, 2016, 10:38:32 AM
Thanks. That profile, which would have at least 2 top 25 (Butler and Creighton in BET), is not getting left out.
To be that's moving the goalpost from the original discussion(BET was left out).
Secondly, not sure how you can expect a team to go 9-9 in league play where they probably wouldn't beat both Creighton and Butler to do so in the tournament....awlful lot of faith in the team getting hot in BET and exceeding any expectations from the regular season.
Let's put it this way, it's highly unlikely that a team could out perform their 9-9 BEast regular season performance to win 3 games in BET. If they can pull that in BET they almost certainly would be better than 9-9 in the first place.
Quote from: mu03eng on December 19, 2016, 11:23:00 AM
To be that's moving the goalpost from the original discussion(BET was left out).
Secondly, not sure how you can expect a team to go 9-9 in league play where they probably wouldn't beat both Creighton and Butler to do so in the tournament....awlful lot of faith in the team getting hot in BET and exceeding any expectations from the regular season.
Let's put it this way, it's highly unlikely that a team could out perform their 9-9 BEast regular season performance to win 3 games in BET. If they can pull that in BET they almost certainly would be better than 9-9 in the first place.
All this is exactly why I say 9-9 would be highly unlikely but not necessarily impossible. Even if we went 3-1 with two top-10 wins, I'm still not sure we get in if the committee didn't see us as a tourney team on Wednesday morning.
Quote from: brewcity77 on December 19, 2016, 11:29:44 AM
All this is exactly why I say 9-9 would be highly unlikely but not necessarily impossible. Even if we went 3-1 with two top-10 wins, I'm still not sure we get in if the committee didn't see us as a tourney team on Wednesday morning.
Marquette would start Wednesday morning on the bubble. A team under consideration that notches two top 25 wins would move up the S-curve and be in the field. Period.
Quote from: Lazar's Headband on December 19, 2016, 11:41:09 AM
Marquette would start Wednesday morning on the bubble. A team under consideration that notches two top 25 wins would move up the S-curve and be in the field. Period.
This team could go 11-7 easy. And go 7-11 just as easily. Problem is insee 1-2 top 25 wins. I also see a loss to flipping DePaul somehow.
Quote from: mu03eng on December 19, 2016, 11:23:00 AM
To be that's moving the goalpost from the original discussion(BET was left out).
Secondly, not sure how you can expect a team to go 9-9 in league play where they probably wouldn't beat both Creighton and Butler to do so in the tournament....awlful lot of faith in the team getting hot in BET and exceeding any expectations from the regular season.
Let's put it this way, it's highly unlikely that a team could out perform their 9-9 BEast regular season performance to win 3 games in BET. If they can pull that in BET they almost certainly would be better than 9-9 in the first place.
What goalpost shifting? I was responding to brew who said 9-9, plus BET wins over DePaul, Butler, and Creighton would have MU a #1 seed in the NIT. I disagreed, someone ran the numbers, and those numbers support my point of view.
Your second paragraph is full of assumptions. There are many ways MU can get 9-9. If MU goes 0-8 against Nova, Xavier, Butler, and Creighton then MU would have to go 9-1 in other BE games. Isn't it more likely that a 9-9 MU has at least 1 top 25 win, which Nova, Xavier, Creighton, and Butler are projected to be.
Additionally, you assume a team that sweeps another team in the regular season will automatically win the BET game. What if the games were close? Look at MU vs Providence last year. You're telling me PC has no chance to beat MU had they played a third time?
Besides, I never said whether or not I thought brew's scenario was likely. Strictly arguing a hypothetical situation. I agree that the scenario is unlikely. But if it happened MU dances.
In the latest bracketology done on espn Joe Lunardi has us as a next four out
Quote from: GoldenEagles32 on December 19, 2016, 12:47:58 PM
In the latest bracketology done on espn Joe Lunardi has us as a next four out
For reals?
If we fired Wojo last week, we'd definitely be "last four in". This guy keeps holding us back.
Quote from: Lazar's Headband on December 19, 2016, 12:09:14 PM
What goalpost shifting? I was responding to brew who said 9-9, plus BET wins over DePaul, Butler, and Creighton would have MU a #1 seed in the NIT. I disagreed, someone ran the numbers, and those numbers support my point of view.
Your second paragraph is full of assumptions. There are many ways MU can get 9-9. If MU goes 0-8 against Nova, Xavier, Butler, and Creighton then MU would have to go 9-1 in other BE games. Isn't it more likely that a 9-9 MU has at least 1 top 25 win, which Nova, Xavier, Creighton, and Butler are projected to be.
Additionally, you assume a team that sweeps another team in the regular season will automatically win the BET game. What if the games were close? Look at MU vs Providence last year. You're telling me PC has no chance to beat MU had they played a third time?
Besides, I never said whether or not I thought brew's scenario was likely. Strictly arguing a hypothetical situation. I agree that the scenario is unlikely. But if it happened MU dances.
All fair, I think I was blending other people's responses into yours and make you the heart of all that was wrong with the argument ;D
If the point you are making is that 9-9 + Creighton, DePaul, and Butler in BET gets us dancing regardless of the likelihood that actually happens then we can agree
Quote from: MuEagle1090 on December 19, 2016, 10:01:58 AM
In this scenario, with a 9-9 conference record and W's in the BET over Creighton, Butler, Depaul, and a loss to Nova....our numbers are projected to be...
W-L RPI* SOS
21-13 43 28
Hard to imagine that team not making the tourney with those numbers.
Quote from: brewcity77 on December 19, 2016, 11:29:44 AM
All this is exactly why I say 9-9 would be highly unlikely but not necessarily impossible. Even if we went 3-1 with two top-10 wins, I'm still not sure we get in if the committee didn't see us as a tourney team on Wednesday morning.
The only way we get in under the bolded scenario is if we win the Big East tournament.
As I posted above I think 9-9 and two Big East tournaments wins is a lock to get us in the tournament (of course I am assuming a 9-3 non conference). A hot shooting team can easily win two games in a conference tournament. Get to 9-9 and I think we have a reasonable chance. However, 9-9 is not that hard to get to especially if you sweep DePaul and St. John's. Go 6-3 at home and than you only have to beat one other team besides St. John's and DePaul on the road to get to 9-9. Going 5-4 at home makes it really difficult.
Quote from: Lazar's Headband on December 19, 2016, 11:41:09 AM
Marquette would start Wednesday morning on the bubble. A team under consideration that notches two top 25 wins would move up the S-curve and be in the field. Period.
I've said it before and until I see evidence otherwise, I really don't believe that, barring unexpected conference tournament winners, those games have any real bearing on how the field pans out. I really believe the Selection Committee sets their bracket by Wednesday or Thursday and just haggle over seeding and which of the last teams in will be. I don't think the games going on matter, I think they are focusing on the 4 months that already passed.
That's why a team like Syracuse can go one-and-done in the ACC Tournament and still get in with a RPI of 72 while St. Mary's and San Diego State get snubbed despite making it to their conference tourney finals with RPIs of 29 and 30.
Quote from: mu03eng on December 19, 2016, 01:42:35 PM
All fair, I think I was blending other people's responses into yours and make you the heart of all that was wrong with the argument ;D
If the point you are making is that 9-9 + Creighton, DePaul, and Butler in BET gets us dancing regardless of the likelihood that actually happens then we can agree
I think we may actually have a lot of common ground. If ignoring the BET, 11-7 is a lock but 10-8 depends on the makeup of those 10 wins and the rest of the bubble landscape. Barring a bad loss in the 7-10 game, which would be a pretty funky place to get to at 10-8, I think 10-8 gets us in.
9-9 would definitely leave work left to do. A run to the title game would almost surely be enough; make the semis and it depends on whom you beat. I ran RPI Wizard with MU going 9-9 by winning the 9 highest % probability of win, then a win against Butler and loss to Creighton in BET. Final profile:
W-L RPI* SOS
19-13 54 33
That is squarely on the bubble but could get in since those numbers are better than some at larges in last year's field.
Quote from: brewcity77 on December 19, 2016, 04:41:45 PM
I've said it before and until I see evidence otherwise, I really don't believe that, barring unexpected conference tournament winners, those games have any real bearing on how the field pans out. I really believe the Selection Committee sets their bracket by Wednesday or Thursday and just haggle over seeding and which of the last teams in will be. I don't think the games going on matter, I think they are focusing on the 4 months that already passed.
That's why a team like Syracuse can go one-and-done in the ACC Tournament and still get in with a RPI of 72 while St. Mary's and San Diego State get snubbed despite making it to their conference tourney finals with RPIs of 29 and 30.
St Mary's and San Diego state didn't string together back to back top 20 wins either. Big difference.
Generally I agree that conf tourneys don't make a huge difference, but they can help, and the examples you picked weren't great.
UCONN went from a .500 BE bubble team (most likely in the Tourney) to a 3 seed because of the BET (and then to a National Title) in 2010-2011.
Only dropped to 40 kenpom (2 spots) after last night, despite significantly underperforming the projection.
Quote from: wadesworld on December 19, 2016, 05:53:32 PM
UCONN went from a .500 BE bubble team (most likely in the Tourney) to a 3 seed because of the BET (and then to a National Title) in 2010-2011.
They also had Kemba Walker. MU does not.
Quote from: Coleman on December 20, 2016, 11:16:12 AM
Only dropped to 40 kenpom (2 spots) after last night, despite significantly underperforming the projection.
Nice, we can live with that
Quote from: wadesworld on December 19, 2016, 05:53:32 PM
UCONN went from a .500 BE bubble team (most likely in the Tourney) to a 3 seed because of the BET (and then to a National Title) in 2010-2011.
Look at their non-conference schedule, through which they went undefeated. They also had zero losses to non tournament teams. They were also ranked all year (including going into the tournament). I don't think the Big East run really moved their seed. They were always going to be a high seed.
Look at these bracket predictions before that tournament:
https://www.google.com/amp/www.sbnation.com/platform/amp/ncaa-basketball/2011/3/8/2036844/bracketology-2011-ncaa-tournament-field-march-madness?client=safari
http://m.bleacherreport.com/articles/619451-college-basketball-bracketology-2011-ncaa-tournament-bracket-as-of-february-27
Before the Big East tourney, people had them as a 4-5 seed. Did they maybe get moved one line because of that performance? Sure. Maybe. But more likely, they were there all along, and the committee saw them as a 3 based on their undefeated non-conference slate and zero losses to non tournament teams.
Quote from: Badgerhater on December 20, 2016, 11:32:39 AM
They also had Kemba Walker. MU does not.
What does that have to do with the argument as to whether or not the NCAA Tournament selection committee even look at Conference Tournament results beyond giving them the AQ teams?
Quote from: Lazar's Headband on December 19, 2016, 04:53:30 PM
I think we may actually have a lot of common ground. If ignoring the BET, 11-7 is a lock but 10-8 depends on the makeup of those 10 wins and the rest of the bubble landscape. Barring a bad loss in the 7-10 game, which would be a pretty funky place to get to at 10-8, I think 10-8 gets us in.
9-9 would definitely leave work left to do. A run to the title game would almost surely be enough; make the semis and it depends on whom you beat. I ran RPI Wizard with MU going 9-9 by winning the 9 highest % probability of win, then a win against Butler and loss to Creighton in BET. Final profile:
W-L RPI* SOS
19-13 54 33
That is squarely on the bubble but could get in since those numbers are better than some at larges in last year's field.
Very valid, based on those numbers it comes down to whether it's a hard or soft bubble in Chico's 2009 parlance.
9-9 clearly depends on other teams being not as good across the country as MU as opposed to 10-8 or 11-7 saying MU is likely better than most teams across the country
Quote from: Golden Avalanche on December 19, 2016, 12:59:28 PM
For reals?
If we fired Wojo last week, we'd definitely be "last four in". This guy keeps holding us back.
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology
Quote from: brewcity77 on December 20, 2016, 11:45:30 AM
Look at their non-conference schedule, through which they went undefeated. They also had zero losses to non tournament teams. They were also ranked all year (including going into the tournament). I don't think the Big East run really moved their seed. They were always going to be a high seed.
Joey Brackets' latest picks have Michigan, Pitt, and Wisc all in, so it's still possible that MU will not have any losses to non-tourney teams this year.
Quote from: JamilJaeJamailJrJuan on December 19, 2016, 05:48:34 PM
St Mary's and San Diego state didn't string together back to back top 20 wins either. Big difference.
Generally I agree that conf tourneys don't make a huge difference, but they can help, and the examples you picked weren't great.
Unless you actually win one, conference tourneys only matter for the teams on the bubble going into the conference tournaments. You see the projected last four in/ first four out change with every unexpected tournament win. The debate here has pretty much centered around MU being a bubble team, which they certainly would be at 9-9. In that case how we fare in the Big East tournament really matters. It matters very little to Villanova. The worse a first round loss for them could be is dropping them to a two seed. Now if MU finishes 9-9 they are not likely to be in the bottom four of the Big East tournament, which means two Big East tournament wins would come against NCAA tournament teams and the loss would be against the Big East tournament champion. Last year we were 8-10 and beat St. John's in a bottom four game. Beating a bottom feeder does not help your resume. The real key is to get out of the bottom four and then hope your shooters are hot.
Quote from: wadesworld on December 19, 2016, 05:53:32 PM
UCONN went from a .500 BE bubble team (most likely in the Tourney) to a 3 seed because of the BET (and then to a National Title) in 2010-2011.
This is not accurate. UCONN was ranked entering the BET that year.
Quote from: 4th and State on December 20, 2016, 12:47:27 PM
This is not accurate. UCONN was ranked entering the BET that year.
Correct. UCONN began the season unranked, went 10-0 in the pre conference (beating #2 MSU and #9 Kentucky among others) and started the Big East season #4. Went 9-9 in conference, fell to #21 before the conference tourney but were never lower than that. Won conference tourney, entered NCAA tourney #9.
My fault. For some reason I thought I remembered UConn being on the bubble and then jumping to a 3 seed. Were they on the bubble when Napier turned into Kemba and led them to a National Title? If so maybe I'm just mashing up the 2 situations.
What about the year Cuse won the BET behind Gerry McNamara? 7-9 in BE but went from out of the field to a 5 seed. I'm guessing the committee wasn't going to omit them had they lost the BET title game.
Granted I thought the committee vastly overrated them, so I picked TAMU for one of the easier 5-12 upsets I've had.
Quote from: Lazar's Headband on December 20, 2016, 02:18:13 PM
What about the year Cuse won the BET behind Gerry McNamara? 7-9 in BE but went from out of the field to a 5 seed. I'm guessing the committee wasn't going to omit them had they lost the BET title game.
Granted I thought the committee vastly overrated them, so I picked TAMU for one of the easier 5-12 upsets I've had.
Maybe that was the case I was thinking of. I have no idea now.
Quote from: wadesworld on December 20, 2016, 02:48:36 PM
Maybe that was the case I was thinking of. I have no idea now.
Honestly, I think you were thinking of the Kemba Walker team that you initially mentioned. They weren't a bubble team, but once they made the final four a lot of national outlets seemed to run with that line of thinking to enhance the story.
Quote from: Lazar's Headband on December 20, 2016, 02:18:13 PM
What about the year Cuse won the BET behind Gerry McNamara? 7-9 in BE but went from out of the field to a 5 seed. I'm guessing the committee wasn't going to omit them had they lost the BET title game.
Granted I thought the committee vastly overrated them, so I picked TAMU for one of the easier 5-12 upsets I've had.
Thank you but I didn't beat the Orange by myself!
Quote from: MuEagle1090 on December 20, 2016, 03:05:07 PM
Honestly, I think you were thinking of the Kemba Walker team that you initially mentioned. They weren't a bubble team, but once they made the final four a lot of national outlets seemed to run with that line of thinking to enhance the story.
I believe they won 5 games to win the Big East tournament title. Were they a bubble team? They might of been, if they lost the first game of the Big East tournament, which would of been to a team that was not very good.