Dust settling...NCAA resume

[Juan Anderson's Mixtape]

9-9 with a BET win against someone like Butler or Xavier would likely be enough.  If MU plays DePaul or St. John's in the 7-10 game, we'd still need a second win.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

9-9 with a BET win against someone like Butler or Xavier would likely be enough.  If MU plays DePaul or St. John's in the 7-10 game, we'd still need a second win.

This I agree with.  But it'd be hard to get 2 BE tourney wins against teams that don't matter. 

[Litehouse]

Need to win our home games.  8-1 at home.  Win at Depaul and at St. Johns.  That is 10 wins right there.

With 8-1 at home, and beating DePaul and SJU on the road, RPI Wizard puts us at RPI: 48.  Hopefully in, but definitely bubble. 
If we win at Georgetown, it jumps to RPI: 38 and we should be in for sure.

[fjm]

With 8-1 at home, and beating DePaul and SJU on the road, RPI Wizard puts us at RPI: 48.  Hopefully in, but definitely bubble. 
If we win at Georgetown, it jumps to RPI: 38 and we should be in for sure.

I see us more at 4 road wins, 6 home wins. Which is gonna cut it close. Eek

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

With 8-1 at home, and beating DePaul and SJU on the road, RPI Wizard puts us at RPI: 48.  Hopefully in, but definitely bubble. 
If we win at Georgetown, it jumps to RPI: 38 and we should be in for sure.

Cool - thanks for doing that.  I assume you had our home loss as Nova?

[brewcity77]

At 10-8? You don't think two more wins in NYC would matter?  I do. 

I think they should, but in recent years it seems like the whole "playing yourself into the tournament" thing doesn't really exist and the expected seeds before there conference tournaments are about where they shake out, no matter how far teams go.

Conference tournaments, in my opinion, are vastly overrated in terms of selection importance by the media and public and unless you weren't going to get in and win it, they are just a fun exhibition for all involved.

[mu03eng]

9-9 with a BET win against someone like Butler or Xavier would likely be enough.  If MU plays DePaul or St. John's in the 7-10 game, we'd still need a second win.

False. If we finish 9-9 we are like the 6th or 7th team in the Big East....no matter how good the conference is they are not taking 70% of it to the NCAA especially for a team that doesn't have a top 50 non-conference win.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

False. If we finish 9-9 we are like the 6th or 7th team in the Big East....no matter how good the conference is they are not taking 70% of it to the NCAA especially for a team that doesn't have a top 50 non-conference win.

The B12 has gotten 70% of its conference into the NCAAs. Came damn near getting 80% one year. The Big East is strong enough that it could get 70% of its teams in. I don't expect it to because the Ws and Ls have to be aligned perfectly. But it is theoretically possible.

[brewcity77]

It's maybe not impossible, but getting in at 18-12 would surprise me. That'd be a good way to test the "do conference tournaments matter" question as we could possibly win 3 games and not get an auto bid.

[MUDPT]

Lunardi on Marquette:

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/insider/story/_/id/18284136/gonzaga-bulldogs-best-nonconference-ncaa-tournament-resumes

"Want to know why an otherwise solid Marquette team isn't in our NCAA field? Look only as far as losses to Michigan (neutral), Pitt (neutral) and Wisconsin (home), with no corresponding quality in the win column. Wins over Vanderbilt and Georgia aren't good enough to save the Golden Eagles at this point."

[BM1090]

Lunardi on Marquette:

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/insider/story/_/id/18284136/gonzaga-bulldogs-best-nonconference-ncaa-tournament-resumes

"Want to know why an otherwise solid Marquette team isn't in our NCAA field? Look only as far as losses to Michigan (neutral), Pitt (neutral) and Wisconsin (home), with no corresponding quality in the win column. Wins over Vanderbilt and Georgia aren't good enough to save the Golden Eagles at this point."

But even with that, he has us really close. Opportunity is there. We just have to seize it.

[brandx]

False. If we finish 9-9 we are like the 6th or 7th team in the Big East....no matter how good the conference is they are not taking 70% of it to the NCAA especially for a team that doesn't have a top 50 non-conference win.

Yup. 9-9 with 5 or 6 of the wins over the three bottom feeders gives us no chance at all. Even 10-8 is cutting it too close.

[muwarrior69]

I see us more at 4 road wins, 6 home wins. Which is gonna cut it close. Eek

Isn't he coming in our next class?

[esotericmindguy]

It's maybe not impossible, but getting in at 18-12 would surprise me. That'd be a good way to test the "do conference tournaments matter" question as we could possibly win 3 games and not get an auto bid.

Surprised? It's impossible. Why do you bring up Kenpom ratings? Are they going to consider that more now? Committee weighs RPI much more and Marquette's is in the 80s. 9-9 might not even get them into the NIT. Their non conference resume is very average, need to go 10-8 at minimum.

[Juan Anderson's Mixtape]

False. If we finish 9-9 we are like the 6th or 7th team in the Big East....no matter how good the conference is they are not taking 70% of it to the NCAA especially for a team that doesn't have a top 50 non-conference win.

If Marquette finishes 6th, that would be 60%.  Marquette could actually finished tied for 5th at 9-9, lose a 3 way tiebreaker, and end up the 7 seed.  It would have to fall just right, but not impossible.

The final MU RPI depends upon whom they play. Beating Butler and losing to Nova is a lot different than beating DePaul and losing to Creighton.

Plus, look at the profiles of the teams that played in Dayton last year.  A 19-13 MU profile would be equal or better.  19 wins is squarely on the bubble.  Comes down to the rest of the field at that point.  I'll have to run the numbers later but I'd put the odds of a bid at roughly 60%.

[mu03eng]

Surprised? It's impossible. Why do you bring up Kenpom ratings? Are they going to consider that more now? Committee weighs RPI much more and Marquette's is in the 80s. 9-9 might not even get them into the NIT. Their non conference resume is very average, need to go 10-8 at minimum.

9-9 gets them in the NIT, there is no question about that. The NCAA threshold is much more difficult, likely 11-7 is required but depending on the make up of the 10-8 record, that could work but very tough.

[WarriorPride68]

The opponent tonight,
Saint Francis (PA) is #323 in Kenpom.

Will be curious how far MU (38) drops, even with a win tonight.

[BM1090]

The opponent tonight,
Saint Francis (PA) is #323 in Kenpom.

Will be curious how far MU (38) drops, even with a win tonight.

This isn't exactly how it works....but we're projected for a 26 point win. If we win by 30-40, we will likely move up a little bit. If we win by 15, we are going to drop.

[mu03eng]

If Marquette finishes 6th, that would be 60%.  Marquette could actually finished tied for 5th at 9-9, lose a 3 way tiebreaker, and end up the 7 seed.  It would have to fall just right, but not impossible.

The final MU RPI depends upon whom they play. Beating Butler and losing to Nova is a lot different than beating DePaul and losing to Creighton.

Plus, look at the profiles of the teams that played in Dayton last year.  A 19-13 MU profile would be equal or better.  19 wins is squarely on the bubble.  Comes down to the rest of the field at that point.  I'll have to run the numbers later but I'd put the odds of a bid at roughly 60%.

For 9-9 to work, there can be no bad losses so that means we have to be 4-0 against St Johns and DePaul. That means we have 5 wins to make a case. You'd think we'd have to beat other BEast bubble teams to have a shot, so 4-0 against Providence and Georgetown leaving us only one other win against Seton Hall, Villanova, Creighton, Butler and Xavier. Not sure the committee takes a team that goes 1-9 against teams that are solidly in the tournament.

If we go something like 2-2 against Providence and Georgetown then we can get 3 wins against the top 5 in conference, but then we are in the mix with Providence and Georgetown for the last spot and their non-con is stronger than ours.

Have to go 10-8 at a minimum to have a bid in my opinion.

[mu03eng]

This isn't exactly how it works....but we're projected for a 26 point win. If we win by 30-40, we will likely move up a little bit. If we win by 15, we are going to drop.

Also depends on how teams around us perform against their expectations as well. We could win by 15 and stay the same/move up. Unlikely but it's all about performance to expectation.

[WarriorPride68]

This isn't exactly how it works....but we're projected for a 26 point win. If we win by 30-40, we will likely move up a little bit. If we win by 15, we are going to drop.

Nonetheless, my point was it will be interesting to see where MU is tomorrow even with a win

[brewcity77]

Surprised? It's impossible. Why do you bring up Kenpom ratings? Are they going to consider that more now? Committee weighs RPI much more and Marquette's is in the 80s. 9-9 might not even get them into the NIT. Their non conference resume is very average, need to go 10-8 at minimum.

It's not impossible if we go into the Big East Tournament and add wins over 10-seed DePaul, 2-seed (and top-10 RPI) Butler and 3-seed (and top-10 RPI) Creighton before losing to #1 overall Villanova. 21-13 (9-9) would definitely give us an indicator of how important the conference tournaments are. My guess is we'd be a 1-seed in the NIT.

[GoldenDieners32]

The opponent tonight,
Saint Francis (PA) is #323 in Kenpom.

Will be curious how far MU (38) drops, even with a win tonight.

SIU is 309

[Juan Anderson's Mixtape]

It's not impossible if we go into the Big East Tournament and add wins over 10-seed DePaul, 2-seed (and top-10 RPI) Butler and 3-seed (and top-10 RPI) Creighton before losing to #1 overall Villanova. 21-13 (9-9) would definitely give us an indicator of how important the conference tournaments are. My guess is we'd be a 1-seed in the NIT.

LOL.  Run the numbers and see what our profile would be.  I like RPI wizard but it sucks on mobile so I can't run the numbers until later.

[BM1090]

LOL.  Run the numbers and see what our profile would be.  I like RPI wizard but it sucks on mobile so I can't run the numbers until later.

In this scenario, with a 9-9 conference record and W's in the BET over Creighton, Butler, Depaul, and a loss to Nova....our numbers are projected to be...

W-L   RPI*   SOS
21-13   43   28