Dust settling...NCAA resume

[Warrior of Law]

Current KenPom: 38
Likely NC record: 9-3
Losses: WI (8), Pitt (59), Michigan (31)
Wins: Vandy (77) Georgia (61)

Based on the strength of the BE, MU will play 12 of their next 18 games against top 50 teams (including Providence at 51).  A 10-8 BE record should be a lock; a 9-9 with a W in the BET could also work.

I'd put the odds at an at-large bid at exactly 50/50.  May come down to the last week of the season @ XU and vs. Creighton.  Put the Wisky L and transfer in the rear-view and move on.  Every game is important from here on out.

[fjm]

Many scoopers will disagree with me.
But, right now we have 0 bad losses (some might say Pitt is semibad).

My goal coming into this season was high NIT or low NCAA seed. (Of course I want NCAA).

I agree about it coming down to the last week but more importantly I think the games against butler and providence are the most important games.

[GoldenDieners32]

Many scoopers will disagree with me.
But, right now we have 0 bad losses (some might say Pitt is semibad).

My goal coming into this season was high NIT or low NCAA seed. (Of course I want NCAA).

I agree about it coming down to the last week but more importantly I think the games against butler and providence are the most important games.

I agree with this. Hopefully we end the year with no bad losses.

[bilsu]

On paper Pitt is not a bad loss. However we had a double digit lead in the second half and therefore it is a bad loss. We be in much better shape at this point, if we had not lost to Pitt.

[wadesworld]

On paper Pitt is not a bad loss. However we had a double digit lead in the second half and therefore it is a bad loss. We be in much better shape at this point, if we had not lost to Pitt.

It is a loss that isn't a bad loss but that should've been a solid win on a neutral court.  But the good thing is that chances are we will steal a win that we shouldn't have won somewhere down the line, because those also usually happen throughout a season.  Those things tend to even out and, as we all know, you are what your record says you are.

[ecompt]

Now that Carter is gone, the season comes down to Howard's health. If Mo gets hurt we are toast. Rowsey and Duane cannot handle the point.

[GoldenDieners32]

Now that Carter is gone, the season comes down to Howard's health. If Mo gets hurt we are toast. Rowsey and Duane cannot handle the point.

HC could run point right?

[MerrittsMustache]

Now that Carter is gone, the season comes down to Howard's health. If Mo gets hurt we are toast. Rowsey and Duane cannot handle the point.

It also comes down to Fischer's health...and Cheatham's...and Hauser's...

[GGGG]

HC could run point right?

Poorly.

[GoldenDieners32]

It also comes down to Fischer's health...and Cheatham's...and Hauser's...

And the rest of the team's health..

[GoldenDieners32]

DW better start getting more minutes he's a solid player.

[MerrittsMustache]

MU's big picture key to the season is to win the games that they're supposed to win and pull out a couple of the 50/50 games.

RPI Wizard has MU going 8-10 in the BE with MU losing each of the following winnable games...

Opp (Win Prob)
at SHU (47%)
Butler (49%)
Xavier (49%)
at Prov (48%)
Creighton (43%)

If MU takes care of business otherwise and wins just 2 of those games, that gets them to 10 conference wins. If either of those wins comes against Butler, Creighton or X, MU is dancing. A road win against Prov or SHU would be enough to vault MU ahead of them on the bubble and likely puts them in as well. That said, if MU drops games to DePaul and/or St. John's, they could be in trouble.

Again, win the games they're supposed to win. Steal a couple 50/50 games and all will be right in the Marquette universe!

[GoldenDieners32]

MU's big picture key to the season is to win the games that they're supposed to win and pull out a couple of the 50/50 games.

RPI Wizard has MU going 8-10 in the BE with MU losing each of the following winnable games...

Opp (Win Prob)
at SHU (47%)
Butler (49%)
Xavier (49%)
at Prov (48%)
Creighton (43%)

If MU takes care of business otherwise and wins just 2 of those games, that gets them to 10 conference wins. If either of those wins comes against Butler, Creighton or X, MU is dancing. A road win against Prov or SHU would be enough to vault MU ahead of them on the bubble and likely puts them in as well. That said, if MU drops games to DePaul and/or St. John's, they could be in trouble.

Again, win the games they're supposed to win. Steal a couple 50/50 games and all will be right in the Marquette universe!

I feel like we can beat Creighton, X, and Butler we just have to stay healthy and D up

[GooooMarquette]

The good news - all of our scholarship players are capable of contributing.  The bad news - we are short enough on scholarship players that an injury to any of them could make or break our season.

If our remaining players avoid injury troubles, I like our chances.

[Warrior of Law]

More reason for a .500 team in the BE to make the NCAA:

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology/conference?scrlybrkr=f2bb4577#

BE is the #1 conference.

[MUBigDance]

I break our BE schedule into months...we go 10-8.

DECEMBER (1-0)
1 game - have to beat GT at home. This is a bellwether game...sure we could go 17-0 after losing it but reality says this defines a vector...down or up.

JANUARY (3-5)
Don't have to be great just at a minimum win every home game except for NOVA. low expectations...only 3 wins necessary...anything more is gravy.

FEBRUARY (5-2)
We've played, matured and hopefully no ones hurt...time for Wojo to growup, time for Freshmen to growup, time for seniors to lead...time to win...Wins away at STJ,DP,GT  Win at home STJ,  and one win among XAV, BUT, @PRV

MARCH (1-1)
We're 9-7 at this point and we can prove a point with a Win @XAV or home vs CR.
It might be 0-2 if we're hurt or worn down or underachieving...but if I have it right we go 10-8 baby!

[warriorchick]

Poorly.

Is it just me, or is Sultan in a particularly pissy mood today?

[mu03eng]

MU has to go 10-8 as a minimum level to get in and we will be playing 12 out of 18 games against top 50 KenPom teams (including Prov at 51). So assuming we beat all the non-top 50 games (including Georgetown twice - #58) we'd be 6-0 in those games, meaning we'd have to be 4 out of 10 top 50 games....which is doable but then when the committee looks at the record we'd be 19-11 with a 4-10 record against Top 50 teams....that's not great.

I think for us to feel at all comfortable, we need to go 11-7 in Big East at least.

Possible, but not probable

[brewcity77]

I think for us to feel at all comfortable, we need to go 11-7 in Big East at least.

10-8 gets us squarely on the bubble, 11-7 gets us in the tournament. Big East Tournament only matters if we win it. 1-2 wins without a tourney title will likely have absolutely zero impact on our chances of getting a bid.

[mu03eng]

10-8 gets us squarely on the bubble, 11-7 gets us in the tournament. Big East Tournament only matters if we win it. 1-2 wins without a tourney title will likely have absolutely zero impact on our chances of getting a bid.

Here's the question...do you think we can go 10-8?

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

10-8 gets us squarely on the bubble, 11-7 gets us in the tournament. Big East Tournament only matters if we win it. 1-2 wins without a tourney title will likely have absolutely zero impact on our chances of getting a bid.

At 10-8? You don't think two more wins in NYC would matter?  I do. 

I think we're in OK shape at 10-8.  19-12 going into NYC.  1-1 gets us at 20-13.  Likely an RPI in 60s.  That's a bubble team for sure, but hopefully on the right side. 

11-7 and we're in, but that may be a tall task.

Need to win our home games.  8-1 at home.  Win at Depaul and at St. Johns.  That is 10 wins right there.  Then just need a steal one somewhere.  @ Prov and @ Gtown would be best opportunities. Although a road win over the top half of the league would certainly help.

[MUfan12]

It is a loss that isn't a bad loss but that should've been a solid win on a neutral court.  But the good thing is that chances are we will steal a win that we shouldn't have won somewhere down the line, because those also usually happen throughout a season.  Those things tend to even out and, as we all know, you are what your record says you are.

It is what it is, ai'na?

[mu03eng]

At 10-8? You don't think two more wins in NYC would matter?  I do. 

I think we're in OK shape at 10-8.  19-12 going into NYC.  1-1 gets us at 20-13.  Likely an RPI in 60s.  That's a bubble team for sure, but hopefully on the right side. 

Depends on who those two wins are against. If they are against DePaul and Georgetown(assuming they continue to under perform) those wins are eh in the grand scheme of things. If they are Georgetown and Villanova, that's a whole other thing.

I'm with Brew, more than likely we'd have to show up in the finals of the BET to have any impact on in or out. If we are solidly in then those games only matter on the seed line

[wadesworld]

10 BE wins we're in.  9 we need 2 BET wins.  11 and we're a stone cold lock.

[MerrittsMustache]

Something else to think about...A 10-8 BE record could potentially pin MU against another .500ish bubble team in the 1st Round of the BET. You'd figure it would set them up to play #1 or 2 in the 2nd Round. That 1st Round game could essentially become a Tourney play-in game.