Dust settling...NCAA resume

[bilsu]

I think we need 11 Big East wins including the conference tournament to be sure of getting a bid.
9-9 +2=11
10-8 +1 = 11
11 wins we are in even with first round Big East tournament loss.

[wadesworld]

I think we need 11 Big East wins including the conference tournament to be sure of getting a bid.
9-9 +2=11
10-8 +1 = 11
11 wins we are in even with first round Big East tournament loss.

Agreed.  And 10 total wins gets us on the bubble and depends on who else we are on the bubble with and who our 10 wins come against.

[Juan Anderson's Mixtape]

In this scenario, with a 9-9 conference record and W's in the BET over Creighton, Butler, Depaul, and a loss to Nova....our numbers are projected to be...

W-L   RPI*   SOS
21-13   43   28

Thanks.  That profile, which would have at least 2 top 25 (Butler and Creighton in BET), is not getting left out.

[muwarrior97]

Thanks.  That profile, which would have at least 2 top 25 (Butler and Creighton in BET), is not getting left out.

I dig it 

[mu03eng]

Thanks.  That profile, which would have at least 2 top 25 (Butler and Creighton in BET), is not getting left out.

To be that's moving the goalpost from the original discussion(BET was left out).

Secondly, not sure how you can expect a team to go 9-9 in league play where they probably wouldn't beat both Creighton and Butler to do so in the tournament....awlful lot of faith in the team getting hot in BET and exceeding any expectations from the regular season.

Let's put it this way, it's highly unlikely that a team could out perform their 9-9 BEast regular season performance to win 3 games in BET. If they can pull that in BET they almost certainly would be better than 9-9 in the first place.

[brewcity77]

To be that's moving the goalpost from the original discussion(BET was left out).

Secondly, not sure how you can expect a team to go 9-9 in league play where they probably wouldn't beat both Creighton and Butler to do so in the tournament....awlful lot of faith in the team getting hot in BET and exceeding any expectations from the regular season.

Let's put it this way, it's highly unlikely that a team could out perform their 9-9 BEast regular season performance to win 3 games in BET. If they can pull that in BET they almost certainly would be better than 9-9 in the first place.

All this is exactly why I say 9-9 would be highly unlikely but not necessarily impossible. Even if we went 3-1 with two top-10 wins, I'm still not sure we get in if the committee didn't see us as a tourney team on Wednesday morning.

[Juan Anderson's Mixtape]

All this is exactly why I say 9-9 would be highly unlikely but not necessarily impossible. Even if we went 3-1 with two top-10 wins, I'm still not sure we get in if the committee didn't see us as a tourney team on Wednesday morning.

Marquette would start Wednesday morning on the bubble.  A team under consideration that notches two top 25 wins would move up the S-curve and be in the field.  Period.

[fjm]

Marquette would start Wednesday morning on the bubble.  A team under consideration that notches two top 25 wins would move up the S-curve and be in the field.  Period.

This team could go 11-7 easy. And go 7-11 just as easily. Problem is insee 1-2 top 25 wins. I also see a loss to flipping DePaul somehow.

[Juan Anderson's Mixtape]

To be that's moving the goalpost from the original discussion(BET was left out).

Secondly, not sure how you can expect a team to go 9-9 in league play where they probably wouldn't beat both Creighton and Butler to do so in the tournament....awlful lot of faith in the team getting hot in BET and exceeding any expectations from the regular season.

Let's put it this way, it's highly unlikely that a team could out perform their 9-9 BEast regular season performance to win 3 games in BET. If they can pull that in BET they almost certainly would be better than 9-9 in the first place.

What goalpost shifting?  I was responding to brew who said 9-9, plus BET wins over DePaul, Butler, and Creighton would have MU a #1 seed in the NIT.  I disagreed, someone ran the numbers, and those numbers support my point of view.

Your second paragraph is full of assumptions.  There are many ways MU can get 9-9.  If MU goes 0-8 against Nova, Xavier, Butler, and Creighton then MU would have to go 9-1 in other BE games.  Isn't it more likely that a 9-9 MU has at least 1 top 25 win, which Nova, Xavier, Creighton, and Butler are projected to be.

Additionally, you assume a team that sweeps another team in the regular season will automatically win the BET game.  What if the games were close?  Look at MU vs Providence last year.  You're telling me PC has no chance to beat MU had they played a third time?

Besides, I never said whether or not I thought brew's scenario was likely.  Strictly arguing a hypothetical situation.  I agree that the scenario is unlikely.  But if it happened MU dances.

[GoldenDieners32]

In the latest bracketology done on espn Joe Lunardi has us as a next four out

[Golden Avalanche]

In the latest bracketology done on espn Joe Lunardi has us as a next four out

For reals?

If we fired Wojo last week, we'd definitely be "last four in". This guy keeps holding us back.

[mu03eng]

What goalpost shifting?  I was responding to brew who said 9-9, plus BET wins over DePaul, Butler, and Creighton would have MU a #1 seed in the NIT.  I disagreed, someone ran the numbers, and those numbers support my point of view.

Your second paragraph is full of assumptions.  There are many ways MU can get 9-9.  If MU goes 0-8 against Nova, Xavier, Butler, and Creighton then MU would have to go 9-1 in other BE games.  Isn't it more likely that a 9-9 MU has at least 1 top 25 win, which Nova, Xavier, Creighton, and Butler are projected to be.

Additionally, you assume a team that sweeps another team in the regular season will automatically win the BET game.  What if the games were close?  Look at MU vs Providence last year.  You're telling me PC has no chance to beat MU had they played a third time?

Besides, I never said whether or not I thought brew's scenario was likely.  Strictly arguing a hypothetical situation.  I agree that the scenario is unlikely.  But if it happened MU dances.

All fair, I think I was blending other people's responses into yours and make you the heart of all that was wrong with the argument 

If the point you are making is that 9-9 + Creighton, DePaul, and Butler in BET gets us dancing regardless of the likelihood that actually happens then we can agree

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

In this scenario, with a 9-9 conference record and W's in the BET over Creighton, Butler, Depaul, and a loss to Nova....our numbers are projected to be...

W-L   RPI*   SOS
21-13   43   28

Hard to imagine that team not making the tourney with those numbers.

[bilsu]

All this is exactly why I say 9-9 would be highly unlikely but not necessarily impossible. Even if we went 3-1 with two top-10 wins, I'm still not sure we get in if the committee didn't see us as a tourney team on Wednesday morning.

The only way we get in under the bolded scenario is if we win the Big East tournament.
As I posted above I think 9-9 and two Big East tournaments wins is a lock to get us in the tournament (of course I am assuming a 9-3 non conference). A hot shooting team can easily win two games in a conference tournament.  Get to 9-9 and I think we have a reasonable chance. However, 9-9 is not that hard to get to especially if you sweep DePaul and St. John's. Go 6-3 at home and than you only have to beat one other team besides St. John's and DePaul on the road to get to 9-9.  Going 5-4 at home makes it really difficult.

[brewcity77]

Marquette would start Wednesday morning on the bubble.  A team under consideration that notches two top 25 wins would move up the S-curve and be in the field.  Period.

I've said it before and until I see evidence otherwise, I really don't believe that, barring unexpected conference tournament winners, those games have any real bearing on how the field pans out. I really believe the Selection Committee sets their bracket by Wednesday or Thursday and just haggle over seeding and which of the last teams in will be. I don't think the games going on matter, I think they are focusing on the 4 months that already passed.

That's why a team like Syracuse can go one-and-done in the ACC Tournament and still get in with a RPI of 72 while St. Mary's and San Diego State get snubbed despite making it to their conference tourney finals with RPIs of 29 and 30.

[Juan Anderson's Mixtape]

All fair, I think I was blending other people's responses into yours and make you the heart of all that was wrong with the argument 

If the point you are making is that 9-9 + Creighton, DePaul, and Butler in BET gets us dancing regardless of the likelihood that actually happens then we can agree

I think we may actually have a lot of common ground.  If ignoring the BET, 11-7 is a lock but 10-8 depends on the makeup of those 10 wins and the rest of the bubble landscape.  Barring a bad loss in the 7-10 game, which would be a pretty funky place to get to at 10-8, I think 10-8 gets us in.

9-9 would definitely leave work left to do.  A run to the title game would almost surely be enough; make the semis and it depends on whom you beat.  I ran RPI Wizard with MU going 9-9 by winning the 9 highest % probability of win, then a win against Butler and loss to Creighton in BET.  Final profile:

W-L       RPI*   SOS
19-13   54        33

That is squarely on the bubble but could get in since those numbers are better than some at larges in last year's field.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

I've said it before and until I see evidence otherwise, I really don't believe that, barring unexpected conference tournament winners, those games have any real bearing on how the field pans out. I really believe the Selection Committee sets their bracket by Wednesday or Thursday and just haggle over seeding and which of the last teams in will be. I don't think the games going on matter, I think they are focusing on the 4 months that already passed.

That's why a team like Syracuse can go one-and-done in the ACC Tournament and still get in with a RPI of 72 while St. Mary's and San Diego State get snubbed despite making it to their conference tourney finals with RPIs of 29 and 30.

St Mary's and San Diego state didn't string together back to back top 20 wins either. Big difference.

Generally I agree that conf  tourneys don't make a huge difference, but they can help, and the examples you picked weren't great.

[wadesworld]

UCONN went from a .500 BE bubble team (most likely in the Tourney) to a 3 seed because of the BET (and then to a National Title) in 2010-2011.

[Coleman]

Only dropped to 40 kenpom (2 spots) after last night, despite significantly underperforming the projection.

[Badgerhater]

UCONN went from a .500 BE bubble team (most likely in the Tourney) to a 3 seed because of the BET (and then to a National Title) in 2010-2011.

They also had Kemba Walker.   MU does not.

[WarriorPride68]

Only dropped to 40 kenpom (2 spots) after last night, despite significantly underperforming the projection.

Nice, we can live with that

[brewcity77]

UCONN went from a .500 BE bubble team (most likely in the Tourney) to a 3 seed because of the BET (and then to a National Title) in 2010-2011.

Look at their non-conference schedule, through which they went undefeated. They also had zero losses to non tournament teams. They were also ranked all year (including going into the tournament). I don't think the Big East run really moved their seed. They were always going to be a high seed.

Look at these bracket predictions before that tournament:

https://www.google.com/amp/www.sbnation.com/platform/amp/ncaa-basketball/2011/3/8/2036844/bracketology-2011-ncaa-tournament-field-march-madness?client=safari

http://m.bleacherreport.com/articles/619451-college-basketball-bracketology-2011-ncaa-tournament-bracket-as-of-february-27

Before the Big East tourney, people had them as a 4-5 seed. Did they maybe get moved one line because of that performance? Sure. Maybe. But more likely, they were there all along, and the committee saw them as a 3 based on their undefeated non-conference slate and zero losses to non tournament teams.

[wadesworld]

They also had Kemba Walker.   MU does not.

What does that have to do with the argument as to whether or not the NCAA Tournament selection committee even look at Conference Tournament results beyond giving them the AQ teams?

[mu03eng]

I think we may actually have a lot of common ground.  If ignoring the BET, 11-7 is a lock but 10-8 depends on the makeup of those 10 wins and the rest of the bubble landscape.  Barring a bad loss in the 7-10 game, which would be a pretty funky place to get to at 10-8, I think 10-8 gets us in.

9-9 would definitely leave work left to do.  A run to the title game would almost surely be enough; make the semis and it depends on whom you beat.  I ran RPI Wizard with MU going 9-9 by winning the 9 highest % probability of win, then a win against Butler and loss to Creighton in BET.  Final profile:

W-L       RPI*   SOS
19-13   54        33

That is squarely on the bubble but could get in since those numbers are better than some at larges in last year's field.

Very valid, based on those numbers it comes down to whether it's a hard or soft bubble in Chico's 2009 parlance.

9-9 clearly depends on other teams being not as good across the country as MU as opposed to 10-8 or 11-7 saying MU is likely better than most teams across the country

[GoldenDieners32]

For reals?

If we fired Wojo last week, we'd definitely be "last four in". This guy keeps holding us back.

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology