MLB Offseason

[buckchuckler]

Also, the Sox have drafted exactly one bat (Rowand, and possibly Beckham) that has really done anything in the majors for any team since Frank Thomas in 1989. So it's fair to say they're truly atrocious at identifying, evaluating and developing young talent.

This is the White Sox way for at least the foreseeable future. Gotta always be buying because they're not smart enough to be able to break it down and start over

Well that's not true at all.  Granted it isn't a strong suite, but off the top of my head: Ray Durham, Joe Crede, Mike Cameron all had very good careers.  They have had some lesser but still productive guys in Chris Singleton, Chris Young, Chris Carter (maybe draft more guys named Chris) Ryan Sweeney and while Jeremy Reed never did anything in the majors, he did get them Freddy Garcia.  They also scouted and developed guys like Magglio Ordonez and Carlos Lee.  The time between Frank and Rowand was pretty productive actually.  It has been the time since where they have been hopeless. 

They also didn't buy either of these guys.  It was their scouting that netted them both of them.  They are acquiring, not buying.  Minor difference, but other teams have liked what the Sox have had in the farm.  Enough to net them some really good players. 

[brandx]

It is yet to be seen if Heyward can play CF at the same level as he played RF, but if he could play CF at the same level, someone would have put him there already.

Chuckler, that was why I mentioned that his WAR was based on playing RF.

[buckchuckler]

Chuckler, that was why I mentioned that his WAR was based on playing RF.

Yeah, I was agreeing with you.  Sorry I wasn't more clear on that. 

[Vander Blue Man Group]

Well, you guessed wrong.  That isn't Melky.

Sorry - my mistake but the point still stands. You can't compare contracts because Eaton was under team control and Heyward was a highly sought after free agent at the age of 26. And if Eaton puts up the same numbers again Sox fans should be very happy. He had a good offensive year but was awful at the beginning.

As for a lot of Heyward's value coming from RF defense that is true. He may ultimately end up back in RF as soon as this season.  The Cubs are getting his prime years on a contending team where he can be a complimentary offensive player. If he opts out after year 3 or 4 that will be just fine as the money will be reallocated to our younger guys. If he doesn't the team can live with it and he'll still be relatively young.

I think the Sox are using a bandaid approach. That's fine but I don't see it taking the team to consistent playoff contention. The complete tear down is a risk but it can work if done well, as the Cubs and Astros have shown.

[🏀]

So fielding a competitive team to keep people interested is a bad thing?  Ok. Gotcha. 

What is there to like.  Well, let me think.  He has taken 2 positions where the Sox were last in baseball in OPS and put bats that are above avg (for the position) in both of them. 

He has taken a team with a good pitching and a terrible offense and made the offense much better.  What an idiot. 

Frazier is an above average defender.  Lawrie, in a short time has at least shown that he can turn 2 and has a above average range.  You want a great defensive 2B?  Beckham?  I'll let Lawrie have a chance I think. 

Oh, and comparing him to Odor like it is a bad thing really makes it seem like you don't know anything about him.  I'd bet there are about 25 teams that would take Odor. 

What do you want to sell?  Sale?  Quintana?  Abreu?  You want the 76ers?  The problem with that is prospects don't always pan out.  What are you getting for Sale to make it worth it?  Yeah, Baseball America and Keith Law would love the prospect return the Sox would get, but I would guess that no player you get for Chris Sale, would be as good as Chris Sale.  Same for Q and Abreu.  Maybe you do, who knows.  But usually when you trade a great, young controllable player in his prime you end up regretting it.

Modification-- Also they have them for 2 years as you point out.  So worst case scenario they can still trade both those guys and add more to the farm.

Keep on enjoying baseball hell then, because that's where Kenny and Jerry want to keep it. Necessary evil with the Sox, need to keep fans interested or revenues plummet.

As for Odor, I don't pick and choose my comparisons. That's just where Lawrie is. He's a 2-4 WAR guy at third, I'll project him at 1-2 WAR guy at second due to defense.

[GGGG]

Look, I know what the White Sox are trying to do.  They are trying to be good enough to keep fans interested, and possibly make a run at a WC spot.  In the meantime they are trying to re-stock their system to be a contender.  The problem is that I don't think the Williams / Hahn team have ever shown they can do the latter.  FanGraphs ranked the White Sox system as 26 out of 30 last year.  So they seemed destined for mediocrity, which is a fans worst nightmare.

The Cubs, Royals and Astros decided that they were just going to have to tough it out for a couple years, hired some great analytical folks, and rebuilt.  All have systems in the top half.  The Brewers, who had a terrible system just a couple years ago, were ranked #11.

The Brewers are going to be terrible this year.  Probably next year too.  But I feel a lot better about year three and out than I would if I were a White Sox fan.

[buckchuckler]

Sorry - my mistake but the point still stands. You can't compare contracts because Eaton was under team control and Heyward was a highly sought after free agent at the age of 26. And if Eaton puts up the same numbers again Sox fans should be very happy. He had a good offensive year but was awful at the beginning.

As for a lot of Heyward's value coming from RF defense that is true. He may ultimately end up back in RF as soon as this season.  The Cubs are getting his prime years on a contending team where he can be a complimentary offensive player. If he opts out after year 3 or 4 that will be just fine as the money will be reallocated to our younger guys. If he doesn't the team can live with it and he'll still be relatively young.

I think the Sox are using a bandaid approach. That's fine but I don't see it taking the team to consistent playoff contention. The complete tear down is a risk but it can work if done well, as the Cubs and Astros have shown.

I didn't mean to be comparing their contracts.  I was comparing their perceived production and value and their actual value.  Everyone thinks Heyward is a stud and the Eaton had a bad sophomore slump when their production was pretty in line. 

As for Hahn, well the Sox have better depth at low levels of their farm than they've had in a long time.  They also have some probable impact players at the top end of their system.  They have also, pretty regularly used the farm to trade for good major league talent. This offseason so far is a perfect example.
And anyone that can turn jake peavy into Lawrie and Frazier is a guy that deserves some credit.

I think right now the Sox can contend for a WC spot.  A mediocre offense matched with that pitching can go a long way.  If the sox get 1 more bat, then they could be really dangerous. 
Not that I expect it but if they get Cespedes or Upton or even Gordon and shift Melky to DH and bench LaRoche, that would be a good offensive and defensive club with good pitching.   

[🏀]

I don't think anyone is arguing about the quality of moves. It's the same old cycle the Sox have been stuck in that's frustrating, especially when you could move a young controllable asset like Quintana for the bulk of someone else's farm system.

I don't think the Sox will ever be more than a WC contender without a better farm system being developed while Sale is in his prime. That's a shame.

[buckchuckler]

I don't think anyone is arguing about the quality of moves. It's the same old cycle the Sox have been stuck in that's frustrating, especially when you could move a young controllable asset like Quintana for the bulk of someone else's farm system.

I don't think the Sox will ever be more than a WC contender without a better farm system being developed while Sale is in his prime. That's a shame.

The problem, as I see it is that trading Q doesn't help the Sox in the the timeframe of Sale's prime.  If they traded Q and restocked farm players it would take, what 3 years?  That would give them what 1 year with some great young talent in place around Sale, before he is a free agent. 

I'd rather keep the pitching in tact.  Add to the offense in any way possible and try to take advantage of Sale, Q, Rodon,  while you have them young and cheap.  Probably sometime in the 2 years with Lawrie and Frazier they get Fulmer into the rotation as well.  One more bat. 

[ChitownSpaceForRent]

I could be wrong but didn't the Sox have a chance for Goldshmidt a few years back? I think I remember them not wanting to give up Konerko or Alexi.

[PuertoRicanNightmare]

Don't discount Frazier's marketability as a motive for acquiring him. The Sox need players people want to root for, both historically and now in the shadow of the Cubs fielding a virtual dream team from a likability standpoint. Konerko's retirement was a blow in that regard. I've heard talk of a Buerhle return, too.

This is an organization that hired popular ex player Robin Ventura, with zero coaching experience, to soften the blow of firing the popular Ozzie. This acquisition has Kenny Williams written all over it.

[🏀]

The problem, as I see it is that trading Q doesn't help the Sox in the the timeframe of Sale's prime.  If they traded Q and restocked farm players it would take, what 3 years?  That would give them what 1 year with some great young talent in place around Sale, before he is a free agent. 

I'd rather keep the pitching in tact.  Add to the offense in any way possible and try to take advantage of Sale, Q, Rodon,  while you have them young and cheap.  Probably sometime in the 2 years with Lawrie and Frazier they get Fulmer into the rotation as well.  One more bat. 

You're right, it just sucks. Band aid a couple years together, see what happens.

[buckchuckler]

Looks like Brandon Phillips is going to the nats.  If he waives his no trade anyways. 

[brandx]

Looks like Brandon Phillips is going to the nats.  If he waives his no trade anyways.

I think we saw this coming after the Reds got Peraza from the Dodgers.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Cubs get Brendan Ryan.   I've worked with his sister Julie for about 10 years.  He's a good dude (can't hit a lick, but nice glove).

[Pakuni]

You're right, it just sucks. Band aid a couple years together, see what happens.

Completely get what you're saying, but hey ... it worked in 2005.
For better or worse, it's the Sox way. Too reliant on gate to tank (intentionally), too lacking in revenue to go all Yankees/Red Sox/Dodgers.

[buckchuckler]

The Sox are apparently going pretty hard after Alex Gordon.  Sounds like it may be getting close.  While I personally would prefer Cespedes, Gordon would certainly still be a good fit, and he would likely be cheaper in terms of AAV as well as term. 

[Vander Blue Man Group]

The Sox are apparently going pretty hard after Alex Gordon.  Sounds like it may be getting close.  While I personally would prefer Cespedes, Gordon would certainly still be a good fit, and he would likely be cheaper in terms of AAV as well as term.

Gordon back to KC on a fairly reasonable deal. 

[buckchuckler]

Gordon back to KC on a fairly reasonable deal.

Very reasonable.   I actually like that he stayed.  He is like mr. Royal.  Woyld have loved the sox to get him but this makes sense.  Hopefully this gets that outfield market moving.

[buckchuckler]

The Kid and Piazza get in the HoF.  Three guys didn't vote for Griffey, and should have their voting privileges revoked. 

Bagwell, Raines, and Hoffman were close.  Schilling a bit further off, followed by Clemens and Bonds.

I would have voted for Raines, Bagwell, Schilling, Mussina, Martinez, Kent and McGriff; in addition to Piazza and Griffey. 

Kent and McGriff both surprising low to me. 

Kent may be the best slugging 2B ever.  .290/.356/.500  377 Hrs, 1518 RBI, 560 2B, 1 MVP (3 other top 10 finishes).  Obviously not the defensive player Sandburg was, but offensively (with a difference of about 100 ABs) Kent blows him away.  Better across the entire slash line, more HRs, more RBI, more 2B, more H, more R. 

McGriff seems to be a victim of steroid numbers.  Without the inflated numbers of PED guys his numbers would have gotten him in already.  .284/.377/.509 with 493 HR, 1550 RBI, 441 2B.  He was never the most dominant guy, but he was high on the list for many years.  He had 10 seasons of 30+ homers, 8 years of 100+ RBI, 5 top 10 MVP finishes.  His top 5 most similar players according to BBref are, David Ortiz, Willie McCovey, Willie Stargell, Paul Konerko and Jeff Bagwell.  Probably 4 HoFers in that group.

Ah well.  If I had a vote. 

[buckchuckler]

Brewers have signed Chris Carter.  Lots of power, lots of Ks. 

[WI inferiority Complexes]

Kent may be the best slugging 2B ever.  .290/.356/.500  377 Hrs, 1518 RBI, 560 2B, 1 MVP (3 other top 10 finishes).  Obviously not the defensive player Sandburg was, but offensively (with a difference of about 100 ABs) Kent blows him away.  Better across the entire slash line, more HRs, more RBI, more 2B, more H, more R. 

Ah well.  If I had a vote.

I think Kent should've done better, as well, but when comparing to Sandberg, even just offensively, you need to look at more stats, IMO.  Sandberg has 344 stolen bases to Kent's 94, and you mentioned doubles but not triples, (Sandberg had 76 triples; Kent had 47 while playing most games at Pac Bell/At&T, where triples are prominent).

And of course there's the defense, where it's not close.

[buckchuckler]

I think Kent should've done better, as well, but you're somewhat cherry-picking stats.  You left out Sandberg has 344 stolen bases to Kent's 94, and mentioned doubles but not triples, (Sandberg had 76 triples; Kent had 47 while playing most games at Pac Bell/At&T, where triples are prominent).

And of course there's the defense, where it's not close.

I believe I mentioned the defense, led with it actually.  But I believe you are the one cherry picking stats.  Sandburg bests Kent in 1 hitting category.  Triples.  Which isn't a major part of the game anymore.  For reference, Sandburg averaged 6 per 162.  Not exactly a huge part of his game.  Kent averaged 3, but 9 more doubles (18 total bases, just the dIfference in their triples, how about that??).  There is little statistical doubt that Kent was a superior hitter compared to Sandburg.  So triples ok, but not really a huge advantage.  Sandburg certainly wins steals.  But again, their overall offensive profiles certainly favor Kent. 

Want to look at even more stats?  TB?  OPS?  OPS+?  BB?  iBB? They all favor Kent. 

And Kent playing at Pac Bell only makes his HR total that much more impressive. 

[ChitownSpaceForRent]

To me Kent is not a hall of famer. Personally, I would still vote for guys like Bonds and Clemons.

[buckchuckler]

To me Kent is not a hall of famer. Personally, I would still vote for guys like Bonds and Clemons.

Kind of curious as to why on Kent, care to share?  I feel like I made my case for, what is yours against?