Reality check with "elite" performances

[avid1010]

So coaches that have the most success in the NCAA tourney are simply lucky coaches in a crapshoot?  The vast majority of posters realize anything can happen in essentially a 6 game tournament.  We also understand that certain coaches are better at having their teams playing their best ball at the end of the year, preparing on short turn-arounds, and making in-game changes.  If the tourney was a total crapshoot the coach wouldnt matter.  Poker tournaments...total crapshoot...yet some seem to make the final table regularly.  NFL playoffs...crapshoot...Game 7...crapshoot...blah blah blah.  All to varying degrees.  If I had to pick between Izzo and Wojo to coach a given team in the NCAA tourney I wouldnt throw my hands up and say, "take either its a crapshoot." 

So some Nova fans were foolishly frustrated by many failed attemps at an NCAA championship before Jay pulled off his 2...and Jay admits it takes luck...but getting a great seed year in and year out really helps in a "crapshoot."

[hairy worthen]

So coaches that have the most success in the NCAA tourney are simply lucky coaches in a crapshoot?  The vast majority of posters realize anything can happen in essentially a 6 game tournament.  We also understand that certain coaches are better at having their teams playing their best ball at the end of the year, preparing on short turn-arounds, and making in-game changes.  If the tourney was a total crapshoot the coach wouldnt matter.  Poker tournaments...total crapshoot...yet some seem to make the final table regularly.  NFL playoffs...crapshoot...Game 7...crapshoot...blah blah blah.  All to varying degrees.  If I had to pick between Izzo and Wojo to coach a given team in the NCAA tourney I wouldnt throw my hands up and say, "take either its a crapshoot." 

So some Nova fans were foolishly frustrated by many failed attemps at an NCAA championship before Jay pulled off his 2...and Jay admits it takes luck...but getting a great seed year in and year out really helps in a "crapshoot."

exactly. thank you. not only that if it truly is a crapshoot then over time every seed would have the same record.

 We all know that the "crapshoot" argument is chicos way of being on all sides of whatever agenda he is forwarding.

[MarquetteFan94]

Yes...and he is citing Mark Few’s quote to support that agenda....

Doubt Few would feel that way if he ever wins a title.

[Dr. Blackheart]

exactly. thank you. not only that if it truly is a crapshoot then over time every seed would have the same record.

 We all know that the "crapshoot" argument is chicos way of being on all sides of whatever agenda he is forwarding.

"Crapshoot" doesn't apply to any games in the Crean era, if you notice.  In that case the term is "crap, shoot".

[avid1010]

Yes...and he is citing Mark Few’s quote to support that agenda....

Doubt Few would feel that way if he ever wins a title.

No...i think jay wright would still say "crapshoot" or whatever other term you want to apply...and has essentially said so.  When he threw his hands up after Jenkins hit the game winning 3...he showed that to the world.  That said...you have to put it in perspective.  Chicos is much closer to acting like its black jack being played strictly by standard strategy...the fact is some are better at counting cards then others.  Its why Duke's chances of winning the tourney are different than Virginia's.  Ridiculous to act like losing to Murray St. at anytime, let alone the tourney, is a crapshoot.  It was sh1t execution and wojo would say as much.

[Cheeks]

Semantics.  Definition of a crapshoot is something that is unpredictable.  The antonym definition is a Sure Thing.

The ncaa tournament is not a sure thing and highly unpredictable.  You are correct it doesn’t mean odds are equal for all, but in sporting events there is nothing of the kinds that has this much unpredictably....which is why it is labeled as such.

No different than someone saying that was a war out there on the court...really, was it a war and people died, were shot, etc?

I think the grownups know why media, coaches, etc say it is a crapshoot because of the nature of the tournament.  Not that hard fellas.

Whether it is Mark Few, Matt Painter, Coach K, Jay Wright, other coaches, other experts....that term or one very close to it is par for the course.

It’s a jungle out there, going to battle each day, dying, sweating bullets trying to get through this crapshoot.  😅

[avid1010]

Semantics.  Definition of a crapshoot is something that is unpredictable.  The antonym definition is a Sure Thing.

The ncaa tournament is not a sure thing and highly unpredictable.  You are correct it doesn’t mean odds are equal for all, but in sporting events there is nothing of the kinds that has this much unpredictably....which is why it is labeled as such.

Really?  Ive seen odds some years where the odds of a single team winning the NCAA are higher than in other major sporting events. 

And by definition...damn near everything in life is a crapshoot.

[avid1010]

Nm

[lawdog77]

Of course a coach is going to say the tournament is a crapshoot...it's a self serving comment to save their arse if and when they lose to a lower seeded team. One has to look at more than one tournament. To paraphrase, once is an accident, twice is a coincidence, three times is a trend.

[jsglow]

I'm not going to argue with cheeks anymore because there's no purpose.  So I'll scratch the itch a different way. 

Is that single minute of basketball the BEST minute Marquette has ever played in crunch time under the bright lights?  Reason I asked is that jsonline listed the 10 greatest Crew openers in an article today.  Yesterday clocked in at #3.  Sixto's grand slam was of course #1.

[Cheeks]

So your first contention is that they didn't pee themselves for the last 2 minutes, they peed themselves during the first 38 minutes that allowed them to build a 7-point lead with 1:10 to play?

Your second contention is that one single turnover is indicative of a team peeing all over themselves?

And from the other post, because Buzz said so, it must be true, making your third contention the unspoken but unquestionably implied "coach speak does not exist, every word spoken by a coach is the gospel truth."

You are wrong on this one. We all know it. You know it. You're just too stubborn to ever own when you are wrong. Marquette scored an insane 2.75 ppp over the final 1:10 of that game. That's more than double any offense in modern recorded history has done for a season. They got blisteringly hot, though in the process didn't even improve to the mean in terms of shooting (MU still shot below their season averages in FG%, 3PFG%, 2PFG%, & eFG% despite the hot finish).

Teams do choke. Teams that score 1.25 ppp are not examples of that. Especially when their opponents are in the process of scoring 2.75 ppp in the same stretch.

My contention is straight forward. 

1) The most elite team in college basketball at shooting free throws, which is done without a defender, shot WELL below their season average that certainly didn't help them.
2) If the only way to lose is to not give up 3 point attempts, guard the 3 point line with urgency
3) If you are winning with 10 seconds left, get the ball inbounds and let them foul you.  You are in the double bonus.  You shoot 80% from the line, make the opponent go the length of the court.  What a mental fart...thankfully
4) Win probability.  There is only one game that I can remember in my life where we had a worse win probability late in the game, that was this year vs Creighton when it was 99.99% probability to lose.
5) Great comeback, but great comebacks happen when the other team is a willing partner.  There's a reason some in the media said "escaped", "got lucky", "extremely fortunate", "let one get away", or worse..."choked", "blew it" (AP Headline was "DAVIDSON BLOWS LATE LEAD IN ONE POINT LOSS TO MARQUETTE"), etc
6) If the shoe were on the other foot and we had that lead and lost, or one of our rivals did, we would call it a choke, not the other way around.  You and I every honest person here knows exactly that is what it would be called.


We were fortunate, beyond fortunate.  Great comeback, not possible without Davidson depositing in the shorts and bed....including the FT line where it is just them and the rim.

[Lennys Tap]

I'm not going to argue with cheeks anymore because there's no purpose.  So I'll scratch the itch a different way. 

Is that single minute of basketball the BEST minute Marquette has ever played in crunch time under the bright lights?  Reason I asked is that jsonline listed the 10 greatest Crew openers in an article today.  Yesterday clocked in at #3.  Sixto's grand slam was of course #1.

Back to back to back clutch 3s and a blow by lay in with the off hand over a big body. One miss and the team is toast. So, yeah. No doubt in my mind.

[Cheeks]

Yes...and he is citing Mark Few’s quote to support that agenda....

Doubt Few would feel that way if he ever wins a title.

Mark Few
Jay Wright
Matt Painter
Coach K

On and on.  So it doesn't tie in with your narrative that if they win a national title, it suddenly goes away.

Some have won it all, some have been to the Final, others have been solid but not yet at the Final Four (Painter has a chance tomorrow).  If anything, listen to some of what Izzo, K, and others have said who won it all and how damn hard it is because of the nature of it all.

[BM1090]

My contention is straight forward. 

1) The most elite team in college basketball at shooting free throws, which is done without a defender, shot WELL below their season average that certainly didn't help them.
2) If the only way to lose is to not give up 3 point attempts, guard the 3 point line with urgency
3) If you are winning with 10 seconds left, get the ball inbounds and let them foul you.  You are in the double bonus.  You shoot 80% from the line, make the opponent go the length of the court.  What a mental fart...thankfully
4) Win probability.  There is only one game that I can remember in my life where we had a worse win probability late in the game, that was this year vs Creighton when it was 99.99% probability to lose.
5) Great comeback, but great comebacks happen when the other team is a willing partner.  There's a reason some in the media said "escaped", "got lucky", "extremely fortunate", "let one get away", or worse..."choked", "blew it" (AP Headline was "DAVIDSON BLOWS LATE LEAD IN ONE POINT LOSS TO MARQUETTE"), etc
6) If the shoe were on the other foot and we had that lead and lost, or one of our rivals did, we would call it a choke, not the other way around.  You and I every honest person here knows exactly that is what it would be called.


We were fortunate, beyond fortunate.  Great comeback, not possible without Davidson depositing in the shorts and bed....including the FT line where it is just them and the rim.

I think I agree with you more than others here because I try to ignore the name of the poster. But I think this is just wrong.

1. Sure, Davidson shot lower than their season average. They shot 14-22. Of course, 11 of those attempts and 6 of those attempts were taken by their worst free throw shooter, De'Mon Brooks. He still shot 74%, but the rest of the team was 9-11 and above their season average. One player had a poor free throw shooting game and he was their worst free throw shooter. Not exactly shocking.

2. None of the 3's were open. Jamil's first one was almost blocked. He was able to get it off because he was more athletic than Davidson's defender. Nothing to be done. Ditto with his second three. Vander, I guess they could have doubled him. But he was a 30% 3P shooter who hit it from 3 feet beyond the arc, contested, off the dribble. They guarded the line fine. We just made them.

3. The turnover was Davidson's only mistake. They scored 5 points on their other 3 possessions. Even if they get fouled and make both we still have a chance to tie. So even if they did everything PERFECT, we still would have had a chance to force OT. That means MU took the game.

4. Yeah. Probably. Don't think it is relevant to luck, however.

5. What are they supposed to say? That's always the headline. Doesn't make it true.

6. Same with 5. I probably would have said we choked. It doesn't mean I'm right.

Lastly, I saw references to Davidson not playing well for 38 minutes and that's why we had a chance to win. That's true. But I could easily argue the only reason we didn't win going away was because we didn't play well for 39 minutes.

[Cheeks]

I think I agree with you more than others here because I try to ignore the name of the poster. But I think this is just wrong.

Please understand, I was going bonkers with that win.  Insanely excited.  Only saying as great as it was, we got help...that's how comebacks usually work. I thought your points were fair, but disagree with some


1. Sure, Davidson shot lower than their season average. They shot 14-22. Of course, 11 of those attempts and 6 of those attempts were taken by their worst free throw shooter, De'Mon Brooks. He still shot 74%, but the rest of the team was 9-11 and above their season average. One player had a poor free throw shooting game and he was their worst free throw shooter. Not exactly shocking.   Not shocking, but did not perform to the level he had all year.  MU, conversely shot above their FT % for this game.  This is one stat the other team doesn't have any impact on. It is you and the rim.  That's why I'm not mentioning any other stats because the other teams impacts FG% or turnovers, etc, by being on the court, too

2. None of the 3's were open. Jamil's first one was almost blocked. He was able to get it off because he was more athletic than Davidson's defender. Nothing to be done. Ditto with his second three. Vander, I guess they could have doubled him. But he was a 30% 3P shooter who hit it from 3 feet beyond the arc, contested, off the dribble. They guarded the line fine. We just made them.   I disagree with the first.... Wilson's defender was still 5 feet away and started to close when he went up for the shot so he comes flying in late, but clean look.  Vander's was tough as hell.  Wilson's last shot mildly contested because Davidson doubling up and getting lost on the slip screen made for an open shot.  Look, they were great, clutch shots, not suggesting they were standing by themselves, but two of the three were normal three point attempts in the course of a game.  Not arguing that at all....amazing amazing amazing had to have them shots.

3. The turnover was Davidson's only mistake. They scored 5 points on their other 3 possessions. Even if they get fouled and make both we still have a chance to tie. So even if they did everything PERFECT, we still would have had a chance to force OT. That means MU took the game.  Not the only mistake, the missed free throw with 1:09 opened the door further.  And that turnover was MASSIVE, they didn't even need to throw the ball, just hold it.  MASSIVE. Lastly, maybe MU has chance to tie, or even win, but Davidson can also foul and force MU to shoot free throws instead of a 3 attempt. MU wasn't even in the double bonus yet, foul them up.  Yes, Davidson could have also missed free throws, which would have been further opening the door.

4. Yeah. Probably. Don't think it is relevant to luck, however.   Very strange things have to happen to overcome a 98% win probability with under a minute to play.  Almost always it is a combination of greatness with stupidity.

5. What are they supposed to say? That's always the headline. Doesn't make it true.   Lots of headlines possible, and many were of the variety that MU escaped or dodged a bullet. The AP was pretty strong saying Davidson blew it....strong words, but true.

6. Same with 5. I probably would have said we choked. It doesn't mean I'm right.   We all know what we would have said and believed it to the core, so why is the reverse appropriate?  Great comebacks happen with two things happening.  Some excellent execution, which MU had, and usually some dumb, boneheaded stuff by the opponent. See Falcons vs Patriots, et al.

Lastly, I saw references to Davidson not playing well for 38 minutes and that's why we had a chance to win. That's true. But I could easily argue the only reason we didn't win going away was because we didn't play well for 39 minutes.

Lastly, a great win, one for the ages.  We got lucky.  Let's also not forget that we got the free timeout with 6.7 seconds left to reset the clock...Buzz used his final timeout with 1:03 left, but because of that play we got a free TO where Buzz could draw something up.  Davidson was not happy and I don't blame them.  As McKillop said we got "an unfair advantage".  Sometimes it is better to be lucky.

[jsglow]

Back to back to back clutch 3s and a blow by lay in with the off hand over a big body. One miss and the team is toast. So, yeah. No doubt in my mind.

Not to correct you Lenny but it was actually back to back to back followed by off hand running layup.   

[Herman Cain]

For the unteenth time, down the stretch in crunch time they missed one free throw and had one critical turnover.  Their final possessions in the last minute and a half were as follows:

1) Split a pair of free throws.
2) Executed a nice pick and roll for a layup.
3) Made a pair of free throws.
4) Turned ball over on the sideline under full court pressure.
5) Unsuccessful half court inbound with one second.

So that's 5 total points in what was really 4 possessions, a 1.25PPP.  NO team in college basketball scored at that pace for all of 2018-19.

Marquette's possessions:

1) Jamil three from left wing.
2) Vander HIGHLY contested three from right wing.
3) Jamil  three from right wing.
4) Vander driving layup for the win.

An incredible ELEVEN points in 4 possessions with credible D played each time.

So just stop with the revisionist history.  Marquette WON. Davidson certainly didn't 'leg pee'.  Consider the discussion closed forever.

Vander was a very enjoyable player to watch that year. The kid was very clutch and a winner.

[Lennys Tap]

Not to correct you Lenny but it was actually back to back to back followed by off hand running layup.   

Trying to figure out what we said differently, Glow.

[Goose]

Herman

Regardless of what TheREAlwrk says, Vander told Buzz he was growing before season started and I stated that many times. Vander played like a guy fighting for food that season. He played a big time year for us.

[Spaniel with a Short Tail]

 When crapshoot appears in a thread.

[mu.n8ball]

source?

https://www.jconline.com/story/sports/college/purdue/basketball/2019/03/17/old-dominion-up-first-purdue-takes-next-shot-tournament-run/3191457002/

[NickelDimer]

Cheeks, take the L like a man. We made that win vs Davidson happen. We weren’t given anything 

[Lennys Tap]

Cheeks, take the L like a man. We made that win vs Davidson happen. We weren’t given anything

That will never happen.

[MarquetteFan94]

Mark Few
Jay Wright
Matt Painter
Coach K

On and on.  So it doesn't tie in with your narrative that if they win a national title, it suddenly goes away.

Some have won it all, some have been to the Final, others have been solid but not yet at the Final Four (Painter has a chance tomorrow).  If anything, listen to some of what Izzo, K, and others have said who won it all and how damn hard it is because of the nature of it all.

You can create whatever list you’d like without citing sources, why not add to it?

You honestly can’t understand the difference between a coach that’s never won a title calling the tournament a “crapshoot”   vs those that have??

[ZiggysFryBoy]

Cheeks seems to have some sort of piss and crap fetish, aina?