Why JJJ has to play 25+ minutes per game

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

That was well played Vander Blue Man.  Nice work.  Though I stand by my statement that I do LOL every time I read your ludicrous opinions on the game of basketball.  If in your delusional world you feel Derrick Wilson can lead a team to victory, you must live in one fantasy land of a world.

You are making a mistake again. I haven't said Derrick Wilson could lead a team to victory once since the Fall of 2013. I have said that we aren't very good, Derrick being one of the main reasons why we aren't very good. But just because I don't think Derrick is very good doesn't mean I think the guy behind him on the depth chart is any better.

[NersEllenson]

That's cool - I'm sure I'm coming off as more of a d*ck than I intend.  Agree to strenuously disagree.

I enjoy your sense of humor - all good.  I get called a lot worse around here.  Your smack talk/game is good by me.

[mu03eng]

What is a fact is there is a clear and statistically relevant pattern of production for JJJ when he plays more than 25+ minutes per game.  What is NOT a fact is to suggest that just because a guy starts poorly, it does not mean he CANNOT or WILL NOT play well if still given big minutes.

What is also clear is posters had the opportunity to choose from Derrick Wilson's ENTIRE MU basketball career to see if they could find a 6 game set of games that could match the production of JJJ this season (in the ONLY games JJJ got 25+).  So basically we had 32 games last year of Derrick playing 25+, and now another 23 this year - so 55 games to choose from - and BARELY could Derrick's fans put together 6 games out of those 55 that Derrick puts up similar numbers to JJJ.

I'd rather play JJJ 25-32 minutes per game and see what he can do, when I know approximately 49 times out of 55, Derrick Wilson isn't going to produce what JJJ does in 6 out 6 tries.

And we've been playing with 3 PGS on the floor all season.  Carlino can play it.  Duane can.  At least last year those in the support Derrick court could make a legitimate case when they said:  We don't have any other options.  This year??  Please.

[Canned Goods n Ammo]

Here's my premise:

Do you feel on this year's team we HAVE to have Derrick Wilson playing the PG position?  

Do you feel Duane Wilson and Matt Carlino both are capable enough to play the PG position?

It's been argued Derrick's best role (even by his supporters is that of a 10-15 minute backup)?  Does this not seem to be a possibility this season?

Given that the team is 11-12, and JJJ basically doubles Derrick Wilson in points per 40, rebounds the ball at a higher rate, blocks shots at a higher rate, steals the ball at a higher rate, and ACTUALLY TURNS THE BALL OVER LESS (as measured by turnover percentage) - why does Wojo feel he HAS to play Derrick 33+ minutes per game?

http://statsheet.com/mcb/players/compare?add=derrick-wilson&p1=3-jajuan-johnson

In my view, the Marquette team would be much more formidable if you played a lineup of:

Matt
Duane
JJJ
Juan/Steve
Luke

I simply do not see the downside to making the change to the above, and I feel you have to play your most talented players the most minutes.  JJJ is infinitely more talented than Derrick Wilson.  As are Matt Carlino and Duane Wilson.

You're getting caught up in the specifics.

Look at the big picture of how you are presenting your opinions.

Ners: "I've played the game more than you guys, and I know more about basketball. Coaches are sometimes wrong, and I know Wojo is wrong in this case"

Ammo: "But, Ners, Wojo has played way more ball than you, isn't it possible that you're could be wrong?"

Ners: "No."

Wash. Rinse. Repeat.

You see how that turns people off?

[Canned Goods n Ammo]

Also, I'd like to applaud everybody for keeping this in 1 thread.

Ners, if you could stay in this thread forever, like some sort of vortex, that would be cool.

We all know what we are getting into when we come to this thread. That's totally fair.

[Lighthouse 84]

"Well, if you strenuously object then I should take some time to reconsider."

That's pretty much what the other lawyer said to me afterwards.  Good lesson to learn early on.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

You're getting caught up in the specifics.

Look at the big picture of how you are presenting your opinions.

Ners: "I've played the game more than you guys, and I know more about basketball. Coaches are sometimes wrong, and I know Wojo is wrong in this case"

Ammo: "But, Ners, Wojo has played way more ball than you, isn't it possible that you're could be wrong?"

Ners: "No."

Wash. Rinse. Repeat.

You see how that turns people off?

Ding ding ding ding

[brandx]

First time I have opened this thread in a while and what do I see?

You guys are still arguing and trying to change Ners' mind.... I guess there are some things that need to be seen to be believed.

[Lighthouse 84]

Also, I'd like to applaud everybody for keeping this in 1 thread.

Ners, if you could stay in this thread forever, like some sort of vortex, that would be cool.

We all know what we are getting into when we come to this thread. That's totally fair.

Good point Ammo.  Ban Ners from every other thread and confine him to this one since every other thread he touches turns back to this subject anyway.

[NersEllenson]

Ners,

You do understand that by you narrowing it down to games of 25+minutes or more that you are "trying to parse data into all sorts of subsets" right? Why not extend the range to 22 minutes so his clunker against powerhouse Alabama A&M is included? Why not extend it to 20 minutes so his average game against MSU and his clunker against Georgetown is included? Hell, last season you told us that a player needed 10 minutes to get in a grove. Why not extend the range to there?

I narrowed it to top 100 teams because that seems like a reasonable line for determining "top competition." JjJ has consistently devoured cupcakes and done poorly against top competition. The fact that you refuse to acknowledge that fact is proof of your bias. I brought up NOVA and HALL being JjJ's first back to back solid outings against top competition because its true. You say its because he's unfairly benched. I say its because he hasn't performed well enough to stay off the bench. But now, for the first time, he did get 2 solid runs of playing time. Isn't that something to be celebrated?

You've brought up the Tennessee game before. Honestly, I don't remember what JjJ was like in that game (Though I do think it's funny that you are using O-rating as a justification even though you spent half of this thread tearing it apart). But what I do remember is that we won that game and that it was our third best win of the year. Is it possible that even though JjJ was playing really well, that others on the team were still playing better?

You've also brought up Pomeroy's limited role player label for Derrick before. As I understand it, that means he is highly efficient and low usage. On a good team, he would be a top bench player or worst starter. What does it say about JjJ (I don't have a KP subscription)? Because he is low efficency but high usage. That means that on a good team, he would be a benchwarmer. Limited role player is better than whatever JjJ is.

You seem to not understand that as minutes go up, production rate decreases, not the other way around. That is baksetball stats 101. JjJ would score more points and steal more. Derrick would get more boards, have more assists, turn the ball over WAY less, shoot at a higher FG% and 3P%. And we can argue all day about whether or not Derrick's defense is elite or not but I think even you would agree that he is a better defender than JjJ. He would also do those little things that you love to criticize much better. You conveniently sidestepped this point, but there is a reason why Derrick has the second highest value add and JjJ has the second lowest.

Also, even though this thread title is about JjJ, it's really about Derrick isn't it? I don't think you actually give a rat's arse about JjJ's playing time, I think what you really care about is taking playing time away from Derrick. JjJ just happens to be the only guy on the bench who could feasibly take Derrick's minutes.

Go ahead and extend it to all games over 20 minutes.  That comes to 12 games.  His average minutes in those games comes down to 26.75, as opposed to 29.6 in the games he gets 25+.  He scores 11.58ppg in the 12 games over 20 minutes.  NOw the sample size is up to 12 games. 7 of which are Top 55 teams per Pomeroy.

It is what it is.  

[NersEllenson]

You're getting caught up in the specifics.

Look at the big picture of how you are presenting your opinions.

Ners: "I've played the game more than you guys, and I know more about basketball. Coaches are sometimes wrong, and I know Wojo is wrong in this case"

Ammo: "But, Ners, Wojo has played way more ball than you, isn't it possible that you're could be wrong?"

Ners: "No."

Wash. Rinse. Repeat.

You see how that turns people off?

Ammo - This is par for the course with you.  You asked me why I felt Wojo was wrong this year.  I have you my answer, and a serious of questions.  You didn't even address one of the questions with your opinion/belief.  Instead?  Re-direct.  I would appreciate hearing your insights and beliefs as to the question I asked.  I mean you straight up asked me why I felt I was right and Wojo was wrong - I gave you my answers.

[Canned Goods n Ammo]

Ammo - This is par for the course with you.  You asked me why I felt Wojo was wrong this year.  I have you my answer, and a serious of questions.  You didn't even address one of the questions with your opinion/belief.  Instead?  Re-direct.  I would appreciate hearing your insights and beliefs as to the question I asked.  I mean you straight up asked me why I felt I was right and Wojo was wrong - I gave you my answers.

Actually, I never asked you why you thought Wojo was wrong. You've said it lots of times. I got it.

I asked why you couldn't even allow for the possibility that Wojo might be RIGHT and you might be WRONG. I apologize if I'm being unclear.

I'm trying to ask a logic question, not a specific question about Wojo vs Derrick vs JJJ.

Well, here's the logic:

You've repeated your credentials over and over again to build your credibility. Fine. You know more about basketball than I do.

You've repeated that coaches can be wrong from time to time (even good coaches). Fine. Not every coach gets it right.

Why is it so hard for you to believe that Wojo (a guy with way more credentials than anybody, including you) might be right, and you might be wrong (even Bill Belicheck didn't start Tom Brady in week 1).

I can appreciate that you have a specific viewpoint and opinion, but your inability to recognize that you might be wrong is maddening. You won't even allow for that possibility?

Oh, and as far as my personal view, I'm in favor of taking the least complicated approach... I assume when guys practice and play well, they earn minutes. End.

[GooooMarquette]

Actually, I never asked you why you thought Wojo was wrong. You've said it lots of times. I got it.

I asked why you couldn't even allow for the possibility that Wojo might be RIGHT and you might be WRONG. I apologize if I'm being unclear.

I'm trying to ask a logic question, not a specific question about Wojo vs Derrick vs JJJ.

You weren't being unclear.  Only one person in this thread doesn't see that.

[miktruck]

Are people expecting Carlino to play tonight?

[brewcity77]

Okay...here's my issue with the whole "JJJ has to play 25+" argument. If that was true, we wouldn't see production from Jajuan until he had played probably 20+ minutes. I mean, you don't know how many minutes you will play from the start. So if he needs all this time to "get into the game", how is this explained?
.

• Against UT-Martin, Johnson had 9 points, 3 rebounds, 3 steals, and 1 block in the first half.
• Against NJIT, Johnson had 7 points, 1 rebound, 1 assist, and 1 steal in the first half.
• Against Arizona State, Johnson had 10 points, 1 rebound, 1 assist, and 2 steals in the first half.
• Against Morgan State, Johnson had 7 points, 3 steals, and 1 block in the first half.
• Against Seton Hall, Johnson had 9 points, 4 rebounds, 1 assist, 1 steal, and 1 block in the first half.

.
I admit I am cherry picking Jajuan's best performances. But what these show is that in those performances, he was playing well from the start! He didn't need 20 minutes to get into the game, he was productive from the start of the game. That was against both low-major and high-major teams. So when he's at his best, he's earning his minutes from the start of the game.

Saying he needs to get more minutes to get into the game is inane. It is the height of stupidity, and Jajuan's own performance proves that. When he is playing well in the first half, he earns more minutes and continues to play well in the second half. When he is not playing well in the first half, he doesn't get more minutes. Because he isn't earning them. I for one am glad to see him play like he did against Seton Hall and hope he uses it as a springboard to keep earning minutes like he did in the first halves of those games listed above.

But I'm not going to go overboard. Jajuan still has to earn it, and one performance isn't earning it. Like Matt, Duane, Luke, Sandy, and the rest of the team, he will earn more minutes only as he shows consistently he can put together performances that merit minutes. I really want to see him keep doing what he did on Saturday. But I'm not going to act like Saturday is what he will do every time he is on the court.

[connie]

Okay...here's my issue with the whole "JJJ has to play 25+" argument. If that was true, we wouldn't see production from Jajuan until he had played probably 20+ minutes. I mean, you don't know how many minutes you will play from the start. So if he needs all this time to "get into the game", how is this explained?
.

• Against UT-Martin, Johnson had 9 points, 3 rebounds, 3 steals, and 1 block in the first half.
• Against NJIT, Johnson had 7 points, 1 rebound, 1 assist, and 1 steal in the first half.
• Against Arizona State, Johnson had 10 points, 1 rebound, 1 assist, and 2 steals in the first half.
• Against Morgan State, Johnson had 7 points, 3 steals, and 1 block in the first half.
• Against Seton Hall, Johnson had 9 points, 4 rebounds, 1 assist, 1 steal, and 1 block in the first half.

.
I admit I am cherry picking Jajuan's best performances. But what these show is that in those performances, he was playing well from the start! He didn't need 20 minutes to get into the game, he was productive from the start of the game. That was against both low-major and high-major teams. So when he's at his best, he's earning his minutes from the start of the game.

Saying he needs to get more minutes to get into the game is inane. It is the height of stupidity, and Jajuan's own performance proves that. When he is playing well in the first half, he earns more minutes and continues to play well in the second half. When he is not playing well in the first half, he doesn't get more minutes. Because he isn't earning them. I for one am glad to see him play like he did against Seton Hall and hope he uses it as a springboard to keep earning minutes like he did in the first halves of those games listed above.

But I'm not going to go overboard. Jajuan still has to earn it, and one performance isn't earning it. Like Matt, Duane, Luke, Sandy, and the rest of the team, he will earn more minutes only as he shows consistently he can put together performances that merit minutes. I really want to see him keep doing what he did on Saturday. But I'm not going to act like Saturday is what he will do every time he is on the court.

You are overly complicating this.  This post started as "if JJJ plays more he has more stats."  All "facts" were based on per game performance.  It takes a special brand of crazy to extend to 18 pages an argument based on the premise that if a player plays more minutes the player will have better numbers.  It's like a bad trip at a Dead concert.

[NersEllenson]

Actually, I never asked you why you thought Wojo was wrong. You've said it lots of times. I got it.

I asked why you couldn't even allow for the possibility that Wojo might be RIGHT and you might be WRONG. I apologize if I'm being unclear.

I'm trying to ask a logic question, not a specific question about Wojo vs Derrick vs JJJ.

Oh, and as far as my personal view, I'm in favor of taking the least complicated approach... I assume when guys practice and play well, they earn minutes. End.

Except one player doesn't play well - and earns more minutes than anybody else.  Here's the stats for Big East play:

10 games.  34.1 minutes per game. 5.2ppg, 5.0 rebounds, 5.1 assists, 2.0 Turnovers per game.

When you are on a basketball floor for 85% of ALL available minutes, you are going to happen your way into numbers like the above.

[willie warrior]

Reminds me of the first bench trial I had 27 years or so ago when I first became a lawyer.   I stood up and said, I strenuously object!  The other lawyer just looked at me and laughed....

He was probably not laughing at you. Every professional legal knows that a strenuous objection is different than a mere objection. Sort of like terminate with extreme prejudice vs. terminate!

[NersEllenson]

Okay...here's my issue with the whole "JJJ has to play 25+" argument. If that was true, we wouldn't see production from Jajuan until he had played probably 20+ minutes. I mean, you don't know how many minutes you will play from the start. So if he needs all this time to "get into the game", how is this explained?
.

• Against UT-Martin, Johnson had 9 points, 3 rebounds, 3 steals, and 1 block in the first half.
• Against NJIT, Johnson had 7 points, 1 rebound, 1 assist, and 1 steal in the first half.
• Against Arizona State, Johnson had 10 points, 1 rebound, 1 assist, and 2 steals in the first half.
• Against Morgan State, Johnson had 7 points, 3 steals, and 1 block in the first half.
• Against Seton Hall, Johnson had 9 points, 4 rebounds, 1 assist, 1 steal, and 1 block in the first half.

.
I admit I am cherry picking Jajuan's best performances. But what these show is that in those performances, he was playing well from the start! He didn't need 20 minutes to get into the game, he was productive from the start of the game. That was against both low-major and high-major teams. So when he's at his best, he's earning his minutes from the start of the game.

Saying he needs to get more minutes to get into the game is inane. It is the height of stupidity, and Jajuan's own performance proves that. When he is playing well in the first half, he earns more minutes and continues to play well in the second half. When he is not playing well in the first half, he doesn't get more minutes. Because he isn't earning them. I for one am glad to see him play like he did against Seton Hall and hope he uses it as a springboard to keep earning minutes like he did in the first halves of those games listed above.

But I'm not going to go overboard. Jajuan still has to earn it, and one performance isn't earning it. Like Matt, Duane, Luke, Sandy, and the rest of the team, he will earn more minutes only as he shows consistently he can put together performances that merit minutes. I really want to see him keep doing what he did on Saturday. But I'm not going to act like Saturday is what he will do every time he is on the court.

Are you serious with this - or is it a troll post?

Meme candidate of the year award:  "earning minutes." 

[NersEllenson]

You are overly complicating this.  This post started as "if JJJ plays more he has more stats."  All "facts" were based on per game performance.  It takes a special brand of crazy to extend to 18 pages an argument based on the premise that if a player plays more minutes the player will have better numbers.  It's like a bad trip at a Dead concert.

Totally agree - yet those in your camp simply can't seem to wrap your head around the fact that if a player is on the court longer he is going to post stats.  Derrick Wilson is a great case in point.  By virtue of being on the floor 34 minutes a game he's bound to score 5 points and grab a few rebounds and get a few assists.  What is sad is when you play THAT much and that's all the production you can bring to the table.  Yet we have people here suggesting playing time needs to be "earned."

My question:  How does a guy who scores at half the rate of another player, rebounds, steals and blocks shots at a lower rate, as well as turn the ball over at a higher percentage of possessions "earn" two times the playing time of another guard on the roster??

 

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

My bad Blue Man. Thread has been all over.  Agree to disagree on JJJ.  Came completely off the rails when TAMU said he'd take Derrick Wilson's production every day of the week over JJJ.

Aren't you the guy who complains that other posters can't take someone having a different opinion than them? Why does me having a different opinion from you cause you to "completely come off the rails?"

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Except one player doesn't play well - and earns more minutes than anybody else.  Here's the stats for Big East play:

10 games.  34.1 minutes per game. 5.2ppg, 5.0 rebounds, 5.1 assists, 2.0 Turnovers per game.

When you are on a basketball floor for 85% of ALL available minutes, you are going to happen your way into numbers like the above.

So you still can't answer Ammo's question. If you are smarter than us because you played basketball in high school, then wouldn't it stand to reason that Wojo is smarter than you because he played in high school, college, and has been a high major coach for nearly 20 years? And while it is true that even the best coaches make mistakes, isn't at all possible that you would make a mistake? Not saying that you did (even though I think so). But is it just possible that you could make a mistake when judging a basketball team?

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Are you serious with this - or is it a troll post?

Meme candidate of the year award:  "earning minutes." 

Brew posts a well reasoned argument backed up by stats, and all you can say is this?

Do you not think minutes are earned? Do you think that it is not a common practice of coaches to sit bench players who struggle in the start of the game and to reward bench players who come out hot with minutes? How do you think minutes are assigned by coaches?

[naginiF]

Probably best to go back to the kids.  Any expectations you have of a logical or reasoned discussion on this (or any of the other corrupted threads) are doomed to failure.  

****edited for brevity****

In the end, if you really need to visit an alternate universe, read your kids some Dr. Suess.  It will make about as much sense.

As i get ready for the X game and getting caught up on Scoop i have to acknowledge the beauty of your response (also, the beauty that is Vander Blue Man Group)!  Well done/thanks.

When the Wife is traveling it's always a great reminder that one adult parenting at a time is infinitely better than two trying to do it at the same time.  Here we have 15 parents parenting at the same time.  The kids are getting too many conflicting messages to process.

Also, at ages 6 and 8 it's easy to figure out where their illogic is coming from.  Either they are hungry, tired, or need to poop..............

................wait a minute...........

[brewcity77]

I know the shots may not have fallen, but I liked JJJ tonight. He was strong on the boards, only overpursued a couple times on steals (forced a turnover on one overpursuit anyway), and had a few shots that could have fallen.

Let's be honest, no one shot well, so that's hardly the biggest sin in this one.