COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")

[forgetful]

So there is a business opportunity here?

Ha ha, but yes. There will be some significant profit taking by predatory branches of the broad medical field.

[Coleman]

Do you mean the tests are no good?

I'm fine with them charging more for scarcity in the short term, as long as its a valid test. I think it is up to people if they want to decide it is worth it.

[forgetful]

Do you mean the tests are no good?

I'm fine with them charging more for scarcity in the short term, as long as its a valid test. I think it is up to people if they want to decide it is worth it.

All the tests have to be marketed with the caveat that they should not be used for clinical guidance. They are not that accurate. They are useful for epidemiologists in hard hit areas with a lot of infections (like NY), they are not that useful right now elsewhere.

Related to this, a cool large study in NY. The NY study indicates that if we also include all the deaths that occurred in peoples homes, or on streets, (so not in hospital or nursing home), the mortality rate is likely around 0.8-1%, which is in line with the original estimates, but below the on paper reports from testing.

[forgetful]

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa-hhschief-speci/special-report-former-labradoodle-breeder-was-tapped-to-lead-us-pandemic-task-force-idUSKCN2243CE

I honestly read this and thought it had to be the onion. Two quotes:

"Azar tapped a trusted aide with minimal public health experience to lead the agency’s day-to-day response to COVID-19. The aide, Brian Harrison, had joined the department after running a dog-breeding business for six years."

"Harrison, 37, was an unusual choice, with no formal education in public health, management, or medicine and with only limited experience in the fields."

Yeah, and we wonder why testing was and still is a disaster.

[Warrior2008]

Do you mean the tests are no good?

I'm fine with them charging more for scarcity in the short term, as long as its a valid test. I think it is up to people if they want to decide it is worth it.

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2020/04/22/gottlieb-antibody-testing-coronavirus-fda-squawk-box.html

There are serious concerns about testing specificity regarding any of the Covid-19 serology tests which is why the FDA has told people they are essentially useless on an individual basis. There are significant risks of false positives when using them on a person to person basis, but for epidemiologists, they could be perhaps useful when determining general penetrance of the virus in certain areas of the country.

Plus with how quickly we are rolling things out right now due to the throw everything against the wall and see what sticks response, the FDA is not reviewing these tests independently and relying on companies to do their own testing of the product.  Obviously that's a huge conflict of interest. 

[warriorchick]

All the tests have to be marketed with the caveat that they should not be used for clinical guidance. They are not that accurate. They are useful for epidemiologists in hard hit areas with a lot of infections (like NY), they are not that useful right now elsewhere.

Related to this, a cool large study in NY. The NY study indicates that if we also include all the deaths that occurred in peoples homes, or on streets, (so not in hospital or nursing home), the mortality rate is likely around 0.8-1%, which is in line with the original estimates, but below the on paper reports from testing.

But would that stat also take into account everyone who had mild or no symptoms and never sought testing or treatment?

[rocky_warrior]

China flare up.  I wonder if related to spread within China or with the proximity of NK coming from there. 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/23/world/asia/china-coronavirus-new-infections.html

Scary part of that article - reinforces that even WITH testing, this is hard to stop...

the outbreak in Harbin could be traced back to a woman who flew to China from the United States in mid-March, and that it had also spread to nearby Liaoning Province.

Officials tested the woman four times, and each time the result came back negative. Later, after she had given the virus to her neighbor, she was confirmed to have been infected. Thus far, the outbreak has spread to at least 78 people, according to the authorities.

Now - she could have been wiser - if you have symptons, of ANY sickness, don't go socialize with your neighbor.  And in these times - wait a few days after you feel better to unleash yourself on the world again.

[forgetful]

But would that stat also take into account everyone who had mild or no symptoms and never sought testing or treatment?

Yes, through antibody testing they found that on average 13.9% have been infected. That number is a bit high for two reasons. 1) They only surveyed people that were readily out and about, not ones quarantining. 2) The numbers in upstate NY are pretty close to the error rate of the tests.

As a rough back of the envelope calculation, I revised that down to 12% infected (honestly, it is likely lower, because most were quarantining). That amounts to 2.3M infections in NY.

NY has reported 20,792 deaths. At that point, you have a mortality rate of 0.9%. That doesn't include deaths at home or in streets. I've seen estimates as high as 30% of deaths occurring at home/streets. I used 10%. That increases the number of total deaths to 22871, and roughly 1.0% mortality rate.

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

Now - she could have been wiser - if you have symptons, of ANY sickness, don't go socialize with your neighbor.  And in these times - wait a few days after you feel better to unleash yourself on the world again.

In mid March China was quarantining anyone entering the country.  Yet they blame The US and Russia?   I’m not buying it. 

[rocky_warrior]

In mid March China was quarantining anyone entering the country.  Yet they blame The US and Russia?   I’m not buying it.

I don't know what you're not buying - but of course China is going to try to blame others.  It's way easier to do that than blame yourselves!

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

I don't know what you're not buying - but of course China is going to try to blame others.  It's way easier to do that than blame yourselves!

I meant the source cited at the start of the outbreak necessitating the lockdown.    Your broader point I agree with this thing is a rampant spreading virus. I should have qualified that. 

[tower912]

In mid March China was quarantining anyone entering the country.  Yet they blame The US and Russia?   I’m not buying it.

Sometimes, 'leaders' or 'countries' attempt to blame others to cover their own failings.

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa-hhschief-speci/special-report-former-labradoodle-breeder-was-tapped-to-lead-us-pandemic-task-force-idUSKCN2243CE

I honestly read this and thought it had to be the onion. Two quotes:

"Azar tapped a trusted aide with minimal public health experience to lead the agency’s day-to-day response to COVID-19. The aide, Brian Harrison, had joined the department after running a dog-breeding business for six years."

"Harrison, 37, was an unusual choice, with no formal education in public health, management, or medicine and with only limited experience in the fields."

Yeah, and we wonder why testing was and still is a disaster.

Like a president putting in charge of FEMA a guy who breeds horses?

[Skatastrophy]

Like a president putting in charge of FEMA a guy who breeds horses?

No need to spread rumors. He was a Labradoodle breeder.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa-hhschief-speci/special-report-hhs-chief-azar-had-aide-former-dog-breeder-steer-pandemic-task-force-idUSKCN2243CE

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

No need to spread rumors. He was a Labradoodle breeder.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa-hhschief-speci/special-report-hhs-chief-azar-had-aide-former-dog-breeder-steer-pandemic-task-force-idUSKCN2243CE

I think he is talking about “your doing a hell of a job Brownie”

[Jockey]

https://crooksandliars.com/2020/04/rant-scarborough-rips-trumps-refusal

Really scary stuff.

Gloomy outlook for fall. Trump minimizing possible fall outbreak just as he did in January, February, and March.

[injuryBug]

I would strongly advise that no-one waste their money on this. The results have no clinical significance or value, and companies like these are being predatory, trying to profit off peoples fears, and in the process charging a massive fee, for a test that is pretty cheap to buy and run.

If it is cheap and easy to run then buy June 1 each state should start bringing people in to test each individual to see who has had the virus and run every few months maybe

[forgetful]

If it is cheap and easy to run then buy June 1 each state should start bringing people in to test each individual to see who has had the virus and run every few months maybe

States are doing this now. NY just released a major study on this.

[injuryBug]

States are doing this now. NY just released a major study on this.

that is a good step. 
This virus hits everyone at so many different levels, tough when you have a HS junior that has dreamed of getting a basketball scholarship his entire life and his critical aau season in all likely hood is taken away

[WarriorDad]

Scary part of that article - reinforces that even WITH testing, this is hard to stop...

Now - she could have been wiser - if you have symptons, of ANY sickness, don't go socialize with your neighbor.  And in these times - wait a few days after you feel better to unleash yourself on the world again.

Which means if that is true, it doesn’t matter who is in charge this was going to overwhelm most institutions, especially democratic ones that believe in individual liberties. 

Your second paragraph is sound advice.

[wadesworld]

Which means if that is true, it doesn’t matter who is in charge this was going to overwhelm most institutions, especially democratic ones that believe in individual liberties. 

Your second paragraph is sound advice.

We know. The administration has knocked this out of the park. Couldn’t have possibly handled it any better. Very cohesive unit with all the right messages and all the right people in all the right places.

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

Now today I'm talking to Wal*Mart about selling them flat wire for the company they hired to make masks for them.

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

I think he is talking about “your doing a hell of a job Brownie”

Yes.

[Pakuni]

Which means if that is true, it doesn’t matter who is in charge this was going to overwhelm most institutions, especially democratic ones that believe in individual liberties. 

Your second paragraph is sound advice.

If only we were a totalitarian state like Germany and South Korea.

[Coleman]

If only we were a totalitarian state like Germany and South Korea.

Or New Zealand