COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")

[Hards Alumni]

I was thinking about herd immunity from a math perspective.

We're at 470k cases in the US.  Let's say the real count is 10x that, so we're at 4.7m.    That means a whopping 1.4% of the US's 330m population has been infected. 

The last week or so, we're getting 30k positive cases per day, so let's say that's really undercounted by 10x, so 300k per day.


The lowest herd immunity %age I could find that was helpful is 40%.   

Even at 300k new cases per day, it would take 1100 days (3+ YEARS) to reach even 40% herd immunity.  Even if my numbers are off by a factor of 2, we're a loonnnnng way off.  And 40% is super low anyhow, it might take 80% or 95%.


And that's only if you stay at 300k per day.  The case rate is likely steady/dropping over the next few weeks.


That leaves immunity thru vaccines as the best possibility.

Yuck.  My hope is a cheap, effective, test that people can perform on themselves at home... and that results are conclusive in minutes.  Ideally, delivered my USPS or distributed at any government building (for those without addresses).  Something like this could throw a ton of water on the fire.  If someone tests positive there could be a small "colony" (think TB or leprosy sanatorium) in each county (or whatever makes sense) that cares for those who are ill.  Specialized, isolated, and loaded with all the PPE and equipment that is required.  If positive, you go and stay there until you've recovered and tested negative.

I realize that something like this completely ignores the asymptomatic positive people.  But, it gives us something.  It frees up hospital space so that they can go back to more normal operations.  Daily testing for each person identifies potential hotspots or outbreaks early.  I'm sure there could be tech use, and mathematical algorithms that could be created to trace back potentially infected people... who would then quarantine at home until they've tested negative for a predetermined time period...  unless positive, then they go on "vacation".  These folks would be excused from work, and be immediately placed on unemployment until they are cleared.  Anyone they've come into contact with (using GPS logs on phones) could be notified via text message.  I know this would be a LOT "big brothery" for most people, myself included.  This is what South Korea has done, and it has been effective.

Just throwing out ideas here.  Ways to get closer to normal, but with precautions.  Someone smarter than me can probably come up with much better plans, or poke holes in this brain storm.  But, as I've said since early February, the best way back is massive, cheap, fast testing.

As a society, life changes, obviously. 

[GooooMarquette]

NYT: "Trump Keeps Talking. Some Republicans Don’t Like What They’re Hearing."

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/09/us/politics/trump-coronavirus-press-briefing.html?action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage

Mr. Trump “sometimes drowns out his own message,” said Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, who has become one of the president’s informal counselors and told him “a once-a-week show” could be more effective. Representative Susan Brooks of Indiana said “they’re going on too long.” Senator Shelley Moore Capito of West Virginia said the briefings were “going off the rails a little bit” and suggested that he should “let the health professionals guide where we’re going to go.”

Even the conservative Wall Street Journal editorial board chastised the president for his behavior at the briefings. “Covid-19 isn’t shifty Schiff,” it wrote in an editorial on Thursday, using Mr. Trump’s nickname for Representative Adam Schiff. “It’s a once-a-century threat to American life and livelihood.”

[GooooMarquette]

Yuck.  My hope is a cheap, effective, test that people can perform on themselves at home... and that results are conclusive in minutes.  Ideally, delivered my USPS or distributed at any government building (for those without addresses).  Something like this could throw a ton of water on the fire.  If someone tests positive there could be a small "colony" (think TB or leprosy sanatorium) in each county (or whatever makes sense) that cares for those who are ill.  Specialized, isolated, and loaded with all the PPE and equipment that is required.  If positive, you go and stay there until you've recovered and tested negative.

I realize that something like this completely ignores the asymptomatic positive people.  But, it gives us something.  It frees up hospital space so that they can go back to more normal operations.  Daily testing for each person identifies potential hotspots or outbreaks early.  I'm sure there could be tech use, and mathematical algorithms that could be created to trace back potentially infected people... who would then quarantine at home until they've tested negative for a predetermined time period...  unless positive, then they go on "vacation".  These folks would be excused from work, and be immediately placed on unemployment until they are cleared.  Anyone they've come into contact with (using GPS logs on phones) could be notified via text message.  I know this would be a LOT "big brothery" for most people, myself included.  This is what South Korea has done, and it has been effective.

Just throwing out ideas here.  Ways to get closer to normal, but with precautions.  Someone smarter than me can probably come up with much better plans, or poke holes in this brain storm.  But, as I've said since early February, the best way back is massive, cheap, fast testing.

As a society, life changes, obviously.

I think a COVID "colony" approach is a sound idea from a disease management approach, but I'm not sure Americans are gonna want to get tested if they know a positive result would get them locked up for several weeks. Especially since we have been telling them for weeks that those with mild symptoms could treat themselves in the comfort of their own home. Many are going to see this as a more restrictive approach, just as people are clamoring for fewer restrictions as they see the curve flattening.

I totally get the rationale and agree with the approach. But converting that to large-scale public buy-in could be difficult.

[tower912]

I think that in the next few weeks that a few treatments are going to be identified that will reduce mortality down to 1-2% of cases that require hospitalization.   When that threshold is met, I think that society will collectively say f it and start the long journey back to a semblance of the old normal.    I think a vaccine will be fast tracked and be available this fall with your flu shot.

[forgetful]

I think that in the next few weeks that a few treatments are going to be identified that will reduce mortality down to 1-2% of cases that require hospitalization.   When that threshold is met, I think that society will collectively say f it and start the long journey back to a semblance of the old normal.    I think a vaccine will be fast tracked and be available this fall with your flu shot.

I'm on a similar track as you, but not as optimistic. I think it is 2 months out, and that treatment will be convalescent plasma. Which wouldn't be scaleable enough for huge caseloads that would emerge if we went back to something like normal.

I think the something like normal is 4-months out. Where either we have had enough infected that we have pretty good reserves of plasma. Or some of the scaleable versions of plasma are available.

[GooooMarquette]

Remember when the Alabama Governor was refusing to issue a stay at home order because "we aren't California"? And the ongoing refusal of some sparsely populated central states, on the theory that sparse populations will limit the spread?

At the time, the per capita case rate was slightly lower than in CA. But in recent weeks, with strict measures in CA and the delay in AL, the numbers have turned. As of today, the per capita case rate in AL is 58/100K, while it is 51/100K in CA.

The same is true in the Dakotas. When I first started looking at rates a couple of weeks ago, MN and the Dakotas had similar rates (I believe both were in the range of 15/100K). The MN enacted a stay at home order and the Dakotas didn't. As of today, the case rate is 22/100K in MN, while the Dakotas are at 35 (ND) and 51 (SD).

IMHO, it's only a matter of time before some mid-sized town in one of those states becomes the next hotspot.

[GooooMarquette]

I'm on a similar track as you, but not as optimistic. I think it is 2 months out, and that treatment will be convalescent plasma. Which wouldn't be scaleable enough for huge caseloads that would emerge if we went back to something like normal.

I think the something like normal is 4-months out. Where either we have had enough infected that we have pretty good reserves of plasma. Or some of the scaleable versions of plasma are available.

Agree that plasma is the most promising short-term option, and that availability and scalability is the key. As far as the timeline back to normal, I think it depends on the definition of "normal."

I think 4 months might get us to the point of bars, restaurants and stores open, with limitations on the number of customers. But as far as sporting events with 50,000+ people (baseball, football), I think we may still be a few months further out.

[forgetful]

An interesting side effect of COVID-19. Most have probably seen some of the reports of pollution down around the world. That is one of the few bright spots emerging from this.

Another, technically COVID-19 is leading to less death in South Africa. So far only 19 virus related deaths in South Africa. But because of quarantine, the murder rate has dropped from 326 to 94 for the same week as compared to last year.

Kind of crazy stats.

[Coleman]

Returning to "normal" will happen in stages...It could look something like this....

-People verified to be immune with some sort of badge or passport that allows them to resume daily activities (requires antibody testing).

-People able to return to workplaces sometime in June, with proper precautions (temperature scanning, rapid testing, antibody testing, etc.)

-Sporting events without fans, or with very limited fans, sometime this summer.

-Restaurants in July or August, with new precautions for number of people in a given space, extra cleaning, etc.

The very last thing to resume is going to be major events with large crowds, such as concerts, sporting events with fans, festivals, theater, etc. That might not happen until we have a vaccine, which is 2021.

[#UnleashSean]

Returning to "normal" will happen in stages...It could look something like this....

-People verified to be immune with some sort of badge or passport that allows them to resume daily activities (requires antibody testing).

-People able to return to workplaces sometime in June, with proper precautions (temperature scanning, rapid testing, antibody testing, etc.)

-Sporting events without fans, or with very limited fans, sometime this summer.

-Restaurants in July or August, with new precautions for number of people in a given space, extra cleaning, etc.

The very last thing to resume is going to be major events with large crowds, such as concerts, sporting events with fans, festivals, theater, etc. That might not happen until we have a vaccine, which is 2021.

I have doubts it'll take that long. I don't think society will allow this to go on that long. I'm guessing there will be lots of issues in Wisconsin alone when Evars increases the stay at home order another month.

[Jockey]

I think that in the next few weeks that a few treatments are going to be identified that will reduce mortality down to 1-2% of cases that require hospitalization.   When that threshold is met, I think that society will collectively say f it and start the long journey back to a semblance of the old normal.    I think a vaccine will be fast tracked and be available this fall with your flu shot.

A vaccine will open a whole new can of worms.

When I was a little kid, the polio vaccine was discovered. For several sundays in a row, every family had to go to a pre-designated location where sugar cubes with the vaccine were distributed to every citizen.

Think of the pushback if we tried that today. Conspiracy theories, right wingers threatening to shoot anyone who tried to make them take a vaccine, organized disruptions by anti-vaxxers, etc.

Hopefully there would be enough people taking it to develop herd immunity.

Then the question would arise over jobs and schools and whether they would allow the non-immunized in.

[tower912]

Some people complain about anything.  Conspiracy theorists and anti-vaxxers who come up with inane reasons to not get vaccinated will reap what they sow.   

[#UnleashSean]

Went to my "real" (non pandemic) job today to see if I can keep things running smoothly.

While I was away the company reached out to have people give out masks. I, along with my team I manage have received masks made of what felt to be hot pads.

That is uhhh, not good for an essential worker in healthcare.

[tower912]

My fire department received a gift of face masks like the ones you describe.   We are currently under orders to wear them whenever we leave the station in non emergency situations, like trips to the store.    Saving our dust masks, face shields and N95S for alarms.

Very stylish.

[#UnleashSean]

My fire department received a gift of face masks like the ones you describe.   We are currently under orders to wear them whenever we leave the station in non emergency situations, like trips to the store.    Saving our dust masks, face shields and N95S for alarms.

Very stylish.

Unfortunately essentially useless for close contact. I wont even go into the sealing portion of it (nonexistent) but even ineffective as a droplet catcher.

[injuryBug]

My fire department received a gift of face masks like the ones you describe.   We are currently under orders to wear them whenever we leave the station in non emergency situations, like trips to the store.    Saving our dust masks, face shields and N95S for alarms.

Very stylish.

Honest question how is it breathing with those on?  Those seem pretty thick compared to what i am seeing around

[mu_hilltopper]

Here's some text on possible ways to open:

https://www.vox.com/2020/4/10/21215494/coronavirus-plans-social-distancing-economy-recession-depression-unemployment

In conclusion, 22m tests PER DAY, raise hospital capacity, we're in this for at least a year, get a vaccine asap.

[tower912]

Unfortunately essentially useless for close contact. I wont even go into the sealing portion of it (nonexistent) but even ineffective as a droplet catcher.

Oh, I know.  Out chief is big on symbols and thinks it is important that we are seen as taking it seriously.  I roll my eyes as I do it because I view it as nothing but a symbolic face cover.   

As far as breathing through these home made masks, they fog my glasses until I lower the nose to a point that they lose most of their nearly non-existent effectiveness.

[#UnleashSean]

Here's some text on possible ways to open:

https://www.vox.com/2020/4/10/21215494/coronavirus-plans-social-distancing-economy-recession-depression-unemployment

In conclusion, 22m tests PER DAY, raise hospital capacity, we're in this for at least a year, get a vaccine asap.

Assuming antibody tests continue to come back with these impressive results...

Most of these measures won't be necessary. Getting a constant supply of antibodies from a growing number of recovered patients will be a great avenue into opening up the world again until a vaccine can be properly tested.

Also going to assume this will be fast tracked and won't be months of testing.

[#UnleashSean]

Oh, I know.  Out chief is big on symbols and thinks it is important that we are seen as taking it seriously.  I roll my eyes as I do it because I view it as nothing but a symbolic face cover.   

As far as breathing through these home made masks, they fog my glasses until I lower the nose to a point that they lose most of their nearly non-existent effectiveness.

Tower pretty much sums it up. My girlfriend went out with a scarf on the other day to protect herself. I was giggling.

[ZiggysFryBoy]

Tower pretty much sums it up. My girlfriend went out with a scarf on the other day to protect herself. I was giggling.

Im only wearing burkas now.

Ok, its a muumuu with a hood, and a ski mask, but I'm trying to be mutli cultural.

[tower912]

I am sure you are still surprisingly attractive.

[ZiggysFryBoy]

I am sure you are still surprisingly attractive.

Whatever, Homer.   

[MU82]

Maybe I've been misreading it all this time ... but isn't the main purpose of a mask to catch one's own "droplets," and thereby not affect others?

Theoretically, there are millions and millions and millions of carriers who don't know they are carriers.

For this purpose, even home-made "masks" theoretically are better than none, right? Because I can't believe anybody with any medical or science knowledge believes that a bandana or a coffee filter or a t-shirt is going to protect the wearer of that jury-rigged "mask."

[MU82]

What makes people think he knows how to manage and cure this disease?

Because MAGA. Duh.