2024 NFL Offseason and Draft Thread

[Pakuni]

Wow...that's...not a lot.

@AndrewBrandt

Josh Jacobs:
Reported deal:
Four years, $48 million.
Real deal:
One year, $14.8 million, and three Packer option years.
Strong deal for one year, and then "we'll see."

[Jockey]

Still a bad deal.

From ESPN:
The Packers decided to pay Jacobs approximately $12 million instead of paying Aaron Jones approximately $11 million and that is a trade I would make zero days per week.

I'm usually the first to choose a younger running back -- and Jacobs is three years younger than Jones -- but there's just one problem: Jones is better.

Jacobs is coming off a disastrous season in which he accrued just 3.5 yards per carry and minus-0.4 yards per carry over expectation, per NFL Next Gen Stats. His total minus-86 rush yards over expectation was the sixth-worst mark by any running back in the league last year.

[Uncle Rico]

Still a bad deal.

From ESPN:
The Packers decided to pay Jacobs approximately $12 million instead of paying Aaron Jones approximately $11 million and that is a trade I would make zero days per week.

I'm usually the first to choose a younger running back -- and Jacobs is three years younger than Jones -- but there's just one problem: Jones is better.

Jacobs is coming off a disastrous season in which he accrued just 3.5 yards per carry and minus-0.4 yards per carry over expectation, per NFL Next Gen Stats. His total minus-86 rush yards over expectation was the sixth-worst mark by any running back in the league last year.

Agree with this analysis

[Pakuni]

Still a bad deal.

From ESPN:
The Packers decided to pay Jacobs approximately $12 million instead of paying Aaron Jones approximately $11 million and that is a trade I would make zero days per week.

I'm usually the first to choose a younger running back -- and Jacobs is three years younger than Jones -- but there's just one problem: Jones is better.

Jacobs is coming off a disastrous season in which he accrued just 3.5 yards per carry and minus-0.4 yards per carry over expectation, per NFL Next Gen Stats. His total minus-86 rush yards over expectation was the sixth-worst mark by any running back in the league last year.

You need to consider that the Raiders offense as a whole was a train wreck most of last season. He was the best back in the league in 2022.

[Uncle Rico]

Underrated awful signing is the London Jaguars 3-year deal to Gabe Davis

[GB Warrior]

Still a bad deal.

From ESPN:
The Packers decided to pay Jacobs approximately $12 million instead of paying Aaron Jones approximately $11 million and that is a trade I would make zero days per week.

I'm usually the first to choose a younger running back -- and Jacobs is three years younger than Jones -- but there's just one problem: Jones is better.

Jacobs is coming off a disastrous season in which he accrued just 3.5 yards per carry and minus-0.4 yards per carry over expectation, per NFL Next Gen Stats. His total minus-86 rush yards over expectation was the sixth-worst mark by any running back in the league last year.

Yep, don't like it. Would have rather done a 2 year rental of Derrick Henry or similar and moved to a true timeshare. Pound for pound, Jones was one of the most valuable RBs in the league this side of Jamaal Charles

[Jockey]

You need to consider that the Raiders offense as a whole was a train wreck most of last season. He was the best back in the league in 2022.

Everyone talks about how RBs are overvalued and then GB and Chicago do what they did today.

Don’t get it.

[Pakuni]

Last year, the Panthers reportedly turned down two firsts and a second for Brian Burns.
Today, they traded him for a second and a fifth.

My heart breaks for MU82.

[lawdog77]

Huh?

Both have played 73 regular season games in the last 5 years.
Jones YPC for his CAREER is better than Jacobs has had in any SEASON in the League.

Jones is a better receiver by far and a better blocker protecting the QB.

The only thing in Jacobs favor is age and as Jones showed at the end of the season, he hasn't lost anything.

Jacobs had more receiptions and a better yards per catch.

[GB Warrior]

nm

Yards per carry

[lawdog77]

Yards per carry

Yes, thought he meant yards per catch.

Pak is right on Jacobs in 2022. The Raiders had a clue on what they were doing and Jacobs had a great year.

[RJax55]

Last year, the Panthers reportedly turned down two firsts and a second for Brian Burns.
Today, they traded him for a second and a fifth.

My heart breaks for MU82.

Also consider they included DJ Moore in the Bears deal because the old GM didn't want to include Burns in any deal.  Now they move Burns for this.

[tower912]

Underrated awful signing is the London Jaguars 3-year deal to Gabe Davis

The Lions signing Marcus Davenport says hello.  Although, to be fair, it looks like a prove it deal.

[Jockey]

Yards per carry

Not correct. For his career, Jones has a higher yards per carry than Jacob’s did in his best year.

[Uncle Rico]

The Lions signing Marcus Davenport says hello.  Although, to be fair, it looks like a prove it deal.

We’ll see how Davis does with Christian Kirk next to him in London.  Tough break for Mac Jones if they don’t bring Ridley back

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

Still a bad deal.

From ESPN:
The Packers decided to pay Jacobs approximately $12 million instead of paying Aaron Jones approximately $11 million and that is a trade I would make zero days per week.

I'm usually the first to choose a younger running back -- and Jacobs is three years younger than Jones -- but there's just one problem: Jones is better.

Jacobs is coming off a disastrous season in which he accrued just 3.5 yards per carry and minus-0.4 yards per carry over expectation, per NFL Next Gen Stats. His total minus-86 rush yards over expectation was the sixth-worst mark by any running back in the league last year.

That Jones figure doesn’t include his prorated signing bonus. He would have counted $17 M against the cap.

[Jockey]

That Jones figure doesn’t include his prorated signing bonus. He would have counted $17 M against the cap.

Correct. I’d still take Jones even though Jacob’s contract is much more team friendly. But with Love and the safety they signed, I understand why they made the move.

[WhiteTrash]

Everyone talks about how RBs are overvalued and then GB and Chicago do what they did today.

Don’t get it.

I don't love the Swift deal but he's 25, 1,000+ yds and 4.8 Yds per carry $8M/yr looks better than Jacobs 26, 800+ yds, 3.5 Yds per carry $12M/yr.

[lawdog77]

I don't love the Swift deal but he's 25, 1,000+ yds and 4.8 Yds per carry $8M/yr looks better than Jacobs 26, 800+ yds, 3.5 Yds per carry $12M/yr.

I think Jacobs' deal is only 1 year guaranteed, with 3 team options. Good price to roll the dice to see if he can get back to 2022 productivity.

[jesmu84]

Justin Fields is still a Bear.

Is this because no one else wants him?

Or

Is it because Chicago still wants him?

If Chicago does still want him - are they planning on taking a QB and keeping both? Or trading down and keeping Fields alone?

[Pakuni]

I don't love the Swift deal but he's 25, 1,000+ yds and 4.8 Yds per carry $8M/yr looks better than Jacobs 26, 800+ yds, 3.5 Yds per carry $12M/yr.

Swift had the benefit of playing behind and elite offensive line and a scheme that makes backs seem better than they are (see: Miles Sanders). And Jacobs spent the year with an offense that was a disaster most of the season. Look beyond a single season.

Also, Jacobs is guaranteed $12.5 million.
Swift is guaranteed $15.3 million.

[Pakuni]

Justin Fields is still a Bear.

Is this because no one else wants him?

I suspect it's because teams don't want to give up draft capital when there are better/similar options available in free agency.

[WhiteTrash]

I think Jacobs' deal is only 1 year guaranteed, with 3 team options. Good price to roll the dice to see if he can get back to 2022 productivity.

A one year guarantee is smart and a good gamble. I do like the Swift deal better, but lesser of two evils in my eyes.

I do like the McKinney deal for the Pack, not splashy but a very good NFL player. Basically don't have to worry about that position for 4 years.

[WhiteTrash]

Swift had the benefit of playing behind and elite offensive line and a scheme that makes backs seem better than they are (see: Miles Sanders). And Jacobs spent the year with an offense that was a disaster most of the season. Look beyond a single season.

Also, Jacobs is guaranteed $12.5 million.
Swift is guaranteed $15.3 million.

All that said, and not disagreeing, I think the overall resumes would get similar deals. If both work out, then the Swift deal is better. If they both bust, Jacobs is is slightly better. Based upon age and body of work, I think both will work out for a few years on both teams. Obviously both GMs think they will be good, multi year players.   

Still don't love either deal. Swift = C+, Jacobs = C-

[Jockey]

Swift had the benefit of playing behind and elite offensive line and a scheme that makes backs seem better than they are (see: Miles Sanders). And Jacobs spent the year with an offense that was a disaster most of the season. Look beyond a single season.

Also, Jacobs is guaranteed $12.5 million.
Swift is guaranteed $15.3 million.

You’ll be blaming the OC next for Jacob’s low production. 

FWIW, I don’t like the Swift deal at all.