Scholarship table
IMO, the Chinese government is hiding something or overreacting. Thus far not even close to being as deadly as SARS, yet they sounded the alarm. There is more to this story to come, I believe. Something does not add to me.I traveled throughout the SARS outbreak and few clients get rattled. I fielded a dozen calls today from nervous clients. China was rocked by trade war and causing alarm has caught my attention. There is something fishy in this whole outbreak and believe it will cause serious short term supply chain issues.
There is something fishy in this whole outbreak and believe it will cause serious short term supply chain issues.
Based off your post, it sounds like you must know something.
MU FanWhere is your factory located? Most of the workers local or transplants from the north?
Honestly, if you were to weaponize a virus, these are two of the traits you would want, the other, being a higher fatality rate. Fortunately, all three are not at play here, but there could be fear of mutations making it more deadly.
Wow, I'm very concerned for Benny. Being able to mimic Myron Medcalf's writing so closely implies an oncoming case of dementia.
My company's China plant is on Chinese New Year shut down and from what I understand the shut down has been extended to at least Feb 7.
Goose, a big difference in this virus and SARS is that this virus is contagious during the incubation period (before symptoms show up), that incubation period is 14-days. So for 2-weeks infected individuals are walking around as infectious agents. On top of that, some reports are saying it is contagious on contact. Those two combined, if true, make this very dangerous, even with lower fatality rates. Honestly, if you were to weaponize a virus, these are two of the traits you would want, the other, being a higher fatality rate. Fortunately, all three are not at play here, but there could be fear of mutations making it more deadly.
So first cases in India and Philippines... 81,000 suspected sick... reports of Chinese cremating dead before identifying them.Still not concerned?
I am quite concerned, both in regards to human life and economic impact. I mentioned a couple days of ago the possibility of the Chinese government not sharing all info on this virus and I believe that to be the case. I have been constant contact with our staff (over ten) on a daily basis and all the Chinese nationals continue to tell me this is not a big problem and the government has done a great job and everything under control. I work/communicate with these folks 365 days a year and know them well. IMO, they are blindly following the leader. Our lead Guangzhou manager (Hong Kong native) has a much higher sense of concern. She is not someone that rattles easily and her response is much more of concern. In regards to economic impact, a lot of very big decisions have been made over the past week over this virus that will have a real economic impact globally. Aside from supply chain disruptions, the response of airlines, border closing, visa restrictions indicate to me that someone has insider info. These decisions are not made lightly and I believe it is indicated that this virus is more severe than being reported.I believe the upcoming weeks is going to be President Xi's biggest challenge to date. If this virus continues to gain steam there is the chance of social unrest. There is a shortage of medical supplies and cabin fever is setting in. We have seen the young people in Hong Kong rally in an attempt for a better HK and better life and at some point that was/is going to happen in China. Not sure if this could be the tipping point, but I believe there is real chance of it.I make a living almost solely in China and am more concerned about the big picture fallout than my own business. FYI--I am quite concerned on how our business will navigate the upcoming weeks/months, but more confident in our ability to be nimble than this serious issue being contained.
What's that famous saying? Civilization is only nine meals away from anarchy?