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Author Topic: COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")  (Read 6335 times)

Hards_Alumni

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« Last Edit: February 01, 2020, 01:19:57 PM by Hards_Alumni »

TallTitan34

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #51 on: January 31, 2020, 10:08:04 PM »
https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/31/health/washington-coronavirus-study-nejm/index.html

I feel like this information from US doctors is already more than anything from China to date.

10,000 already dead in the US so far this season from the regular flu by the way.  Yet no one cares about that.
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Benny B

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #52 on: February 01, 2020, 12:19:12 AM »
https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/31/health/washington-coronavirus-study-nejm/index.html

I feel like this information from US doctors is already more than anything from China to date.

10,000 already dead in the US so far this season from the regular flu by the way.  Yet no one cares about that.

I bet if you look at a cross-section of that 10,000, you’re going to see a shiite ton of candles on the birthday cakes and a whole slew of other complicating diseases... not a bunch of otherwise healthy 30 and 40-somethings. 
Wow, I'm very concerned for Benny.  Being able to mimic Myron Medcalf's writing so closely implies an oncoming case of dementia.

TallTitan34

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #53 on: February 01, 2020, 02:41:35 AM »
I bet if you look at a cross-section of that 10,000, you’re going to see a shiite ton of candles on the birthday cakes and a whole slew of other complicating diseases... not a bunch of otherwise healthy 30 and 40-somethings.

Looking at US flu deaths from the 2017-18 flu season:
Age 0-4: 115
Age 5-17: 528
Age 18-49: 2,803
Age 50-64: 6,751
Age 65+: 50,903

I’m going to go out on a limb and say these numbers are higher for the regular flu in China.

So far the youngest (known) deaths with the coronavirus are a 36 year old and a 48 year old. Both of which are in China.

So far the fatality rate of the regular flu in the US is around 0.7%. The (known) fatality rate of the coronavirus in China is slightly over 2%.

I’m curious to see what the fatality rate outside China is with a larger sample size but I’m going to guess it will be lower than China’s and closer to that standard flu rate.
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MU82

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #54 on: February 01, 2020, 07:56:13 AM »
https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/31/health/washington-coronavirus-study-nejm/index.html

I feel like this information from US doctors is already more than anything from China to date.

10,000 already dead in the US so far this season from the regular flu by the way.  Yet no one cares about that.

My wife is a pediatric nurse and we were just talking about this yesterday.

Just this past week, a kid who had been perfectly healthy died from the flu. Not some fancy super-virus, but the flu. Amazing that could happen in 2020.
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Hards_Alumni

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #55 on: February 01, 2020, 08:59:41 AM »
Looking at US flu deaths from the 2017-18 flu season:
Age 0-4: 115
Age 5-17: 528
Age 18-49: 2,803
Age 50-64: 6,751
Age 65+: 50,903

I’m going to go out on a limb and say these numbers are higher for the regular flu in China.

So far the youngest (known) deaths with the coronavirus are a 36 year old and a 48 year old. Both of which are in China.

So far the fatality rate of the regular flu in the US is around 0.7%. The (known) fatality rate of the coronavirus in China is slightly over 2%.

I’m curious to see what the fatality rate outside China is with a larger sample size but I’m going to guess it will be lower than China’s and closer to that standard flu rate.

If governments with actual data thought the way you did there wouldn't be closed borders in the East, and airlines would still be flying to China.

Influenza is no joke, and neither is this.

The real of the situation is that  we don't know enough (collectively) about the Coronavirus to be taking anything but extreme caution.  Not to mention, the possibility of mutations, or the ability to possibly become reinfected.

Hards_Alumni

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #56 on: February 01, 2020, 09:11:04 AM »
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/01/31/health/washington-coronavirus-study-nejm/index.html

(CNN)Doctors have shared new details about the first case of Wuhan coronavirus in the United States in a paper published Friday in the New England Journal of Medicine.
In the new report, doctors describe how the man progressed from initially mild, nonspecific symptoms to pneumonia on the ninth day of his illness.

Top US infectious disease doctor says Wuhan coronavirus can spread even when people have no symptoms
'There's no doubt': Top US infectious disease doctor says Wuhan coronavirus can spread even when people have no symptoms
The patient -- a 35-year-old resident of Snohomish County, Washington, with no history of major health problems -- had returned from visiting family in Wuhan on January 15. He had not visited the seafood market where a number of early patients were initially linked, nor did he have any known contacts with sick people during his visit.

Still, the man had seen a health alert by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and decided to visit an urgent care clinic on January 19, at which point he had been coughing for four days.


Emphasis mine.  The problem in the USA is that we have a culture of just fighting through illnesses and continuing to go to work or school.  We also have a culture of overreaction.  I hope people can moderate their behavior if there is an uptick in cases... and I suspect there will be.

forgetful

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #57 on: February 01, 2020, 09:58:56 AM »
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/01/31/health/washington-coronavirus-study-nejm/index.html

(CNN)Doctors have shared new details about the first case of Wuhan coronavirus in the United States in a paper published Friday in the New England Journal of Medicine.
In the new report, doctors describe how the man progressed from initially mild, nonspecific symptoms to pneumonia on the ninth day of his illness.

Top US infectious disease doctor says Wuhan coronavirus can spread even when people have no symptoms
'There's no doubt': Top US infectious disease doctor says Wuhan coronavirus can spread even when people have no symptoms
The patient -- a 35-year-old resident of Snohomish County, Washington, with no history of major health problems -- had returned from visiting family in Wuhan on January 15. He had not visited the seafood market where a number of early patients were initially linked, nor did he have any known contacts with sick people during his visit.

Still, the man had seen a health alert by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and decided to visit an urgent care clinic on January 19, at which point he had been coughing for four days.


Emphasis mine.  The problem in the USA is that we have a culture of just fighting through illnesses and continuing to go to work or school.  We also have a culture of overreaction.  I hope people can moderate their behavior if there is an uptick in cases... and I suspect there will be.

We also have a culture where a trip to the doctor or ER will bankrupt you, so many will avoid any treatment. They will also attend work/school, because many can be fired for missing work once. That means if this starts to spread in the US, it could get ugly quick.

Also note, that the case in the NEJM article, the young individual survived, but only with over a weak in an ICU. If we have 10's of thousands infected, we cannot handle that kind of case load with an ICU level care.

Dr. Blackheart

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #58 on: February 01, 2020, 10:09:38 AM »
https://www.yahoo.com/news/chinese-doctors-released-chest-x-012400585.html

Acting more like SARS and MERS. Pneumonia is the real threat it looks like.

jesmu84

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #59 on: February 01, 2020, 10:20:55 AM »
If governments with actual data thought the way you did there wouldn't be closed borders in the East, and airlines would still be flying to China.

Influenza is no joke
, and neither is this.

The real of the situation is that  we don't know enough (collectively) about the Coronavirus to be taking anything but extreme caution.  Not to mention, the possibility of mutations, or the ability to possibly become reinfected.

BS. Fear-mongering at its finest. I bet you vaccinate too.

forgetful

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #60 on: February 01, 2020, 11:07:38 AM »
BS. Fear-mongering at its finest. I bet you vaccinate too.

Having a hard time determining whether this is sarcasm or not.

tower912

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #61 on: February 01, 2020, 11:08:29 AM »
It is clearly sarcasm
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Hards_Alumni

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #62 on: February 01, 2020, 11:21:56 AM »
BS. Fear-mongering at its finest. I bet you vaccinate too.

I don't vaccinate for myself, I vaccinate for others.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html

Tower seems to think you're being sarcastic, but I can't tell.  There are a lot of people that think that when they are "sick" it is the flu.  When it really should be referred to as a cold. 

If you've been sick for a day or been feeling 'bad' for a couple of days, that isn't influenza.  And honestly, confusing the common cold with influenza is something we need to change in the US.

SERocks

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #63 on: February 01, 2020, 12:16:28 PM »
This.

We also have a culture where a trip to the doctor or ER will bankrupt you, so many will avoid any treatment. They will also attend work/school, because many can be fired for missing work once.

forgetful

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #64 on: February 01, 2020, 06:28:25 PM »
It is clearly sarcasm

I was 95% sure it was, did not seem like jesmu84, but sadly these days you can't be 100% certain regarding statements like that.

Benny B

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #65 on: February 01, 2020, 10:52:29 PM »
I don't vaccinate for myself, I vaccinate for others.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html

Tower seems to think you're being sarcastic, but I can't tell.  There are a lot of people that think that when they are "sick" it is the flu.  When it really should be referred to as a cold

If you've been sick for a day or been feeling 'bad' for a couple of days, that isn't influenza.  And honestly, confusing the common cold with influenza is something we need to change in the US.

This.  OMG, This.  I can’t tell you how many people I know who toss around the word ‘flu’ as a catch-all term like southerners do with “Coke”. 

The flu is influenza.  Not a cold, not PMS, not the sniffles, not a stomach bug.  (That’s right... the stomach flu is not influenza.)

I blame whoever came up with that Thera-Flu crap. 
Wow, I'm very concerned for Benny.  Being able to mimic Myron Medcalf's writing so closely implies an oncoming case of dementia.

Cheeks

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #66 on: February 02, 2020, 02:49:27 AM »
My wife is a pediatric nurse and we were just talking about this yesterday.

Just this past week, a kid who had been perfectly healthy died from the flu. Not some fancy super-virus, but the flu. Amazing that could happen in 2020.

End of the day not all drugs works for all people, and people do die....whether 2020 or 2050 there will still be deaths by people of common diseases.
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Fluffy Blue Monster

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #67 on: February 02, 2020, 07:15:49 AM »
This.  OMG, This.  I can’t tell you how many people I know who toss around the word ‘flu’ as a catch-all term like southerners do with “Coke”. 

The flu is influenza.  Not a cold, not PMS, not the sniffles, not a stomach bug.  (That’s right... the stomach flu is not influenza.)

I blame whoever came up with that Thera-Flu crap. 


I probably miss a day a year because of a cough and a fever.  That's not the flu.

Last time I had the flu (about 8 years ago), I missed a week of work and slept the entire weekend after because i was so weak.  That's the last time I skipped a flu shot.
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4everwarriors

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #68 on: February 02, 2020, 07:18:50 AM »
This.  OMG, This.  I can’t tell you how many people I know who toss around the word ‘flu’ as a catch-all term like southerners do with “Coke”. 

The flu is influenza.  Not a cold, not PMS, not the sniffles, not a stomach bug.  (That’s right... the stomach flu is not influenza.)

I blame whoever came up with that Thera-Flu crap.




Eye blame Crean, hey?
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Retire0

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #69 on: February 02, 2020, 07:55:36 AM »
Can I get a ruling on Fireball Flu? Is that influenza?
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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #70 on: February 02, 2020, 08:09:17 AM »
This is a really interesting post on the statistics, from someone inside the field studying this coronavirus..

https://www.reddit.com/r/China_Flu/comments/exe552/coronavirus_faq_misconceptions_information_from_a/

reinko

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #71 on: February 02, 2020, 01:48:20 PM »
Some posters favorite Twitter account news source got banned for doxxing a Chinese scientist and spreading misinformation on the coronavirus.

MU Fan in Connecticut

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #72 on: February 03, 2020, 08:04:52 AM »
Just got off my weekly corporate sales call. 
The Zhongshan Plant Manager said everywhere in China is a ghost town.
Chinese police have road blocks everywhere to take temperatures and to find out where people are coming from / going to for those who venture outside.
Food delivery boys are keeping the country fed.  They are delivering non-stop to people.
Factories cannot reopen without government permission.  Those that do are fined heavily.
The Chinese government has an App where you can see where cases have been confirmed.  Plant Manager was surprised to see 8 cases within 1 suare kilometer of him in Guangzhou. 
He thinks factories will not reopen until Feb. 17.
Ports are closed and he suspects there is a backlog of freighters in the waters around Chinese ports.
Guangdong Province is closed.  They are not letting anyone in from outside until all is contained.

Benny B

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #73 on: February 03, 2020, 09:58:28 AM »
This is a really interesting post on the statistics, from someone inside the field studying this coronavirus..

https://www.reddit.com/r/China_Flu/comments/exe552/coronavirus_faq_misconceptions_information_from_a/

Perhaps the most significant takeaway from this is that the lag in the data being reported.  While there may not be a cover-up per se, reporting illnesses and confirming deaths from an illness does not happen in real time.  Frankly, it's damn near impossible to say how many people are infected and how many have died as of this very moment.

Fortunately, since the OP, it looks like the authorities have been taking appropriate measures to contain; unfortunately, I don't think China has seen the worst of it yet.  Let's hope China has this contained in Huabei province... last thing anyone needs is another hotspot popping up.
Wow, I'm very concerned for Benny.  Being able to mimic Myron Medcalf's writing so closely implies an oncoming case of dementia.


 

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