Kolek planning to go pro
People have been suggested to isolate for 14 days. People appear to be most contagious the week before symptoms and the week of symptoms.
Get bent, dude. I'm not doing your research for you. You can't ask me a million questions that you won't just answer yourself with a simple search. I'm not getting paid to do your research.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/17/health/coronavirus-uk-model-study/index.htmlInteresting study running contrary to what everyone is doing. Suggests that all this isolation is going to cost countless lives.Someone is right and someone is wrong. I'm hoping they are wrong.
I'd be elated if we only end up with under 10k deaths.
I don't need research, my whole point was that if the concern is how quickly we overwhelm capacity none of the data you've been presenting truly matters. The number positive cases doesn't matter because a minor case has little to no impact on capacity, but positive cases that convert to hospitalizations which is what consumes capacity (and how long those beds are occupied by a single patient). Without that information we're just guessing and the sheer volume of positive tests will continue to drive fear.For the record, I'm not saying you are wrong or the worst isn't about to hit, I'm just saying the data we are using is wrong.
Given that there are under 8,000 deaths globally right now. I think that's a pretty likely outcome.
If you think only 8,000 people have died globally, I have a bridge to sell you.
What makes you think it's higher? What data would suggest that?
I didn't get that message at all from the study. What I understood was that 4-6 week isolation measures will still lead to deaths as virus will spread again once we all come back out.Study seems to say we gotta stay isolated until a cure/vaccine is found (up to 18 months) to prevent the deaths and overwhelming of the healthcare system
Simple logic. Do you think there is any chance that Africa isn't teeming with this? You're assuming the numbers from China and Iran are truthful. They aren't. China also has extensive economic activities with Africa. Do you really think that Africa has a total of 8 deaths? Do you think that they have adequate resources to test their dead? Hell no. And you can repeat that story about most of the third world countries on the map at the top. If there is one case confirmed, assume there are thousands infected that the government of those countries can do nothing about. As a developed nation, we can do things to beat this back. For them, this is wildfire, and thousands will die, probably millions. Most won't even be counted, and we will be stuck doing mathematical estimates for years to come.
I'll concede the fact that there are some underdeveloped nations that may not have accurate totals. I don't think changing the estimate from 8,000 known deaths to millions is at all reasonable, though. And back to the initial point, if you trusts Europe's numbers, which are under 1,000 right now, I think the US remaining under 10,000 fatalities is very reasonable to assume. There just don't seem to be any numbers anywhere to support massive fatalities in the US.
so at this point why not have those over 60 and those with pre existing conditions in lockdown and let the rest of us go about our business and let this thing run its course. From the sound of it that would have a minimal impact on hospitals and keep them running well.
Fauci: If you're young, you're less vulnerable than me, but you're not invulnerable, and you don't want to put loved ones at risk. "Please co-operate with us."
Given that there are under 8,000 deaths globally right now, I think that's a pretty likely outcome.
so what happens 2 months from now when the lockdown is lifted and we all go out into the world again. March 12 all over again until we get the vaccine out there. I am staying in lockdown for now but i want my freedom back
By then there is a bit of herd immunity. Once again, the idea is to slow the rate of infection. We slow it to wait for the vaccine and to keep our health care system from being overrun. Once we can control or slow the outbreak enough, we can go back to normal life.
Down 1 w 5 seconds left. Doable.
That's the part most people don't get. We are not going to stop the spread, so we can only try to control it.