2008 - 2009 Expectations

[bma725]

The flaw in your analysis is that you are comparing Illinois AFTER their final four run to MU the season before.  You're comparing teams at differnet points of their development.

Development doesn't have much to do with it, I'm talking about talent.  Illinois had more of it than MU does. 

You cannot compare the Illinois team from AFTER their final four run--you have to look at what they did the previous year--BEFORE the 2004-05 season.   THAT is where MU is today.

Again, I'm comparing talent, not development.  MU simply doesn't have the same level of talent as Illinois did.  MU doesn't have a post player on Augustine's level, whether we're talking about him as a Freshman in 2002 or a Senior in 2006.  Doesn't matter how much Burke develops this year, he doesn't have the talent necessary to be that good. 

[MR.HAYWARD]

It will be interesting to see if Burke can hit a free throw and actually put in a putback or feed.

Are you serious.  Granted Burke is a mason at the free throw line but his ability to catch and finish in the paint is really really good.  Putback against Georgetown??  Great hands and if I recall led the team in dunks last year off penatration and the layoff.  Maybe you are mistaking him with Ooze who regularly got rejected by the rim trying to dunk or simply missed point blank layups. 

That post is exactly why I think Burke is really going to surprise this year.  So many people have simply an incorrect assesmant of the guy

[bma725]

however, we have Lazar at the 4 and they had roger powel jr.

I just dont see how you think theres no comparison. Personally, I think Id take DJ, Jerel, Wes, Lazar and anyone at the 5 over their line-up of williams, brown, head, powell, and augustine. Its atleast close

Lazar and Powell are pretty equal IMO.  Lazar is a better shooter, Powell a better defender.  Powell averaged 12PPG and 5.7RPG that year, Hayward is coming off a season of 12.8PPG and 6.5RPG.  

As a group, the three Illini guards as a group are better than the three MU guards.  I'm not even sure that you can argue individually any of the MU guards is as good as any of the Illinois guards.  Augustine is better than anyone MU throws out at the 5....heck I'd even argue that Nick Smith is better than anyone MU can put out there at the 5 and he was a back up.  

[PJDunn]

If Mr. Hayward is right, we have a real chance to finish in the top 4 of the BE and make some noise in March.  IF Mr. Hayward is wrong, our success will be largely defined by the ability of our perimeter players to consistently hit their 3's.

[NCMUFan]

Mr. Hayward, I hope you are dead right and I am dead wrong about Burke.  We will see.

[Kramerica]

Yeah there is a big difference between us and that Illinois team.  That Illinois team would bring two or three tall guys off the bench who would easily have started for us at the 5. 

For prediction, I'm saying 23-25 wins and a 2nd round exit in the NCAA.  I hope I'm wrong though. 

[Big Daddy 84]

As long as MU stays healthy they will make it to the second weekend on the NCAA.... and they will have a bye for the first game of the BET.

Mc"Steal" has a great shot at BE POTY and will pickup right where he left off last year.

LH is primed for a great year.
Burke will play like a senior and more like he did against UW.

They will be a #3 seed in the NCAA, I think that worked out well last time they were a #3.

[WashDCWarrior]

I think James will have an excellent year.  McNeal's finish to last season will take the pressure off of James to be a scorer.  James plays really well when he has a distributor mentality and I see him averaging 7 assists/game and his shooting percentage improving simply by eliminating 'dumb' shots and shots forced at end of the shotclock.

The 5 position will be run by comittee, similar to last season.  I can't see Burke consistently getting over 20 minutes/game simply because of his propensity to foul.  I see Otule getting about ten of the other minutes, with the remaining split between Hayward and Fulce.

We'll be able to overcome our lack of a Big East quality center in most games because of the quality of our backcourt, however, it will be devastating against good teams with a good center (UConn, ND, etc.) and will lead to a couple blowouts.

Non-Conference 11-2
Big East 13-5
BE Tourney 2-1
NCAA Tourney 1-1

27-9

[Murffieus]

Ilinois 3 guards could hit treys a lot better than our 3. Plus their bigs were more effective.

I believe 4 of 5 Ilini starters ended up in the NBA as well-----we're lucky if we have one (probably McNeal).

[MUFanInGreenBay]

I predicted long before McNeal blew up at the end of last season that he would be a 1st round pick in next year's NBA draft. I firmly still stand by that prediction. McNeal will prove he can shoot it consistently well all season and he'll also prove he can play the PG spot and run a team effectively. Buzz will have McNeal running the PG spot some this year, which will help showcase McNeal for the NBA.

Speaking of those Illinois guards, I would say that McNeal reminds me a lot of Luther Head who was a 1st round pick. I believe McNeal is every bit as good as Head. I think James compares favorably to Dee Brown, but Brown was a better shooter. Where MU's guards don't stack up to that Illini trio is they don't have someone that can match Deron Williams. Wes Matthews is the only MU guard that can match a guy like Williams size, but other than that Matthews cannot come close to matching Williams in most facets of the game except defense.

[WashDCWarrior]

Ilinois 3 guards could hit treys a lot better than our 3. Plus their bigs were more effective.

I believe 4 of 5 Ilini starters ended up in the NBA as well-----we're lucky if we have one (probably McNeal).

Murf,
I'm not sure how you can state McNeal will be lucky to make the NBA.  He's a borderline first rounder going into the season.  I also think James and Harward have very realistic chances.

[Murffieus]

The last time I looked, McNeal was in the bottom quintile of the nBA mocks. That's a marginal postion relative to the draft. To solidify a better position in the draft he needs a stellar year along with MU overachieving expectations.

[WashDCWarrior]

After my last post, I rechecked some sights.  I found him listed between 46th and 60th, so I overreached calling him a borderline first rounder.  That said, I wouldn't consider him getting drafted to be lucky.