2008 - 2009 Expectations

[Henry Sugar]

The previous post on how good we'll be got me thinking about expectations.  What ARE people's expectations for the team this year?

My thoughts

23-26 wins overall
Finish somewhere between 3rd and 6th in conference (11-12 wins total)
Make the NCAA tournament (duh) and win the first game

In short, not much different than last year.  Anyone else?

[JSwarriors08]

I certainly don't think we've lost anything significant enough to cause a significant decline in our success this year, but conversely I fail to see anything that will make us significantly better this year.

In short, I agree

[MR.HAYWARD]

I also agree on the regular season, I think certaan matchups will cause us problems and vice versa.

However, i think we might enjoy more tournamnet success both BE and NCAA wise.  Our style and maturity will create havoc for teams and our experience will carry us thru in pressure situations

4th place BE
BE Tourney finals runnersup
Elite 8
28-9

[JSwarriors08]

I think Elite 8 is significantly optimistic.

[YoungMUFan4]

same expectations for me this year...sweet 16

[muarmy81]

sweet 16

[Dry White Toast]

the only chance we have to advance far into the BE tournament is if Pitt is on the opposite side of the bracket.  You guys do realize that it's their home away from home...and they are all NY'ers???  Just ask Elmore.

[🏀]

the only chance we have to advance far into the BE tournament is if Pitt is on the opposite side of the bracket.  You guys do realize that it's their home away from home...and they are all NY'ers???  Just ask Elmore.

LEEEEEEN EEEEEELLLLLLMORE

[Nukem2]

Burke and Otule will need to provide a reasonable inside presence with points, boards, and defense while staying out of foul trouble.  Barro was playing at a pretty high level for the most part as last season progressed.  Those shoes will be hard to fill.  

[MUCam]

I am cautiously optimistic about Burke. Otule would be a major surprise if he can give anything at all. Expectations are essentially where they were last year, although the conference looks tougher this year and that may adversely affect seeding in the NCAA for us should we slip down a couple spots.

[🏀]

although the conference looks tougher this year and that may adversely affect seeding in the NCAA for us should we slip down a couple spots.

I'm feeling sick about that. Big East will get terrible seeding again.

[Daniel]

If we get 23 - 26 wins, I will be thrilled!  Otule would have to be pretty good for us to significantly improve - AND, as stated above, the BEast will be a bigger beast this year - it is significantly tougher this year, I think, than previous years.  And we have some tough non-conference games.

23 - 26 would be thrilling. . .I hope we can do it, and will be cheering at all the home games. . . GO MARQUETTE!  GO BUZZ!!!!!!!

[jmayer1]

If we get 23 - 26 wins, I will be thrilled!  Otule would have to be pretty good for us to significantly improve - AND, as stated above, the BEast will be a bigger beast this year - it is significantly tougher this year, I think, than previous years.  And we have some tough non-conference games.

23 - 26 would be thrilling. . .I hope we can do it, and will be cheering at all the home games. . . GO MARQUETTE!  GO BUZZ!!!!!!!

MU won 25 games last year why do you think they will be worse?

[Daniel]

MU won 25 games last year why do you think they will be worse?

I think
1) The Big East is much tougher this year
2) We will miss Barro in the middle
3) I hope I am wrong and thrilled at the end of the season!

[nyg]

I am with majority about center position worries.  But with returning starting four, subs Aker and Cubs, believe the wildcard is Fulce.  He needs to produce substantially more than what Fitz did off the bench. I like our experience though, Sweet 16.   

[Doctor V]

i dont really get any of this. unless you think the 3 seniors will get worse theres really no reason to have a season any worse than last year. by all accounts, jerel is looking sick. I think DJ will have a great year. Not to mention Lazar will only get better.

Highly likely 3 first team all BE, with one of the best defenders who can by POY.

Tons of experience. I really do not see how this team can justify not being top 3-4 in conference and do any worse than sweet 16.

I know i know new inexperienced coach and no inside presence. Remember the Illini a few years back? they almost were undefeated.

Im not saying we are as good but we have a good team with some good players, 3 that are possible NBA type guys. I know its the same guys as last year, but for the most part they should only get better. Also, there is a chip on their shoulder. this team should do VERY well

I predict 3-4 losses and a top 2 finish in conference. No worse than sweet 16. After that its hard to predict until you see certain matchups

[MR.HAYWARD]

I actually thought Burke outplayed Barro in many cases last year.  Not laways but I think Barro had good games and Burke had good games.  Burke always seemed to have a really short leash.  I expect really good things from him this year.  He has size, athleticism, hands, etc.  I think he will really surprise people now that he will actually get minutes.  Must stay out of foul trouble.

[bma725]

Remember the Illini a few years back? they almost were undefeated.

All five Illini starters were either drafted by an NBA team or signed as free agents after college.  4 of them were drafted, including 2 in the first round and 1 in the lottery.

Being incredibly generous, MU might get 3 guys off this team into the NBA at some point, but it would take a miracle for any of them to be drafted as high as the Illini players.

As for the supposed lack of interior play, the Illini had James Augustine, who was UofI's all time leading rebounder, all time leader in field goal percentage, and one of only 12 players in the history of the Big 10 to score 1000 points and grab 1000 rebounds.  He averaged 10 points and 7 rebounds a game during that season. 

MU has Dwight Burke, who has scored in double figures twice in his career, and has one double digit rebound game.

They aren't even close to being comparable teams.

[Marquette Gyros]

The previous post on how good we'll be got me thinking about expectations.  What ARE people's expectations for the team this year?

My thoughts

23-26 wins overall
Finish somewhere between 3rd and 6th in conference (11-12 wins total)
Make the NCAA tournament (duh) and win the first game

So, uh, what is it, Hank?

From the Cracked Sidewalks thread:

Personal predictions on the team's BE conference victories?  Somewhere between 6 - 10 wins.

[Pardner]

http://media.www.marquettetribune.org/media/storage/paper1130/news/2008/09/30/Sports/Bullock.Author.Predicts.2630.Win.Mens.Basketball.Season-3458401-page2.shtml

Pudner says expect 26-30 wins in the Tribune based on his starters returning formula.

My expectations?  Always a National Championship.  Prediction though:  22-9, 11-7 in the BE.  Deeper run in the NCAA to Elite 8.   We will start out hot in the BE but our last five BE games are killer match-ups for us without a 5. 

Henry, worried about Buzz's in game coaching?  Realistically, a coach decides 10% of the games (or three games) with his decisions.  I say Crean won the Wisconsin game with some change up defenses and a key time out last year, but lost the Georgetown and Stanford games.  Buzz cannot do much worse.

Game prep is another story.  This was actually a strong part of TC's game.  Buzz has already stated that all the spotlight shouldn't be on him only, but on all his staff.  Even when he hired them, the assistants mentioned that Buzz said he offered them broad responsibilities.  Buzz has excellent help on the bench and he seems very organized and prepared.  I am not worried here either.

Offensively, the 4 out and 1 in motion offense will be exciting to watch.  Buzz's teams will shoot the trey's at a quick pace.  Lazar, Jerel, Mo, Fulce, Butler and a healthy dCube will add a higher shooting percentage to the perimeter to what we saw last year.  This will create spacing for DJ and Wes.  Hazel and Otule will need to add physical minutes.  Burke=boards, picks, put backs.  If we are not hot, it will be a long game.

Defensively, we will see more of the same as under TC--on ball pressure to create more possessions on O.  Buzz says (quoting Henry's recap of the Chi event) expect the "need to create turnovers and make the game "longer".  In a follow-up question later, Buzz mentioned that the team will need to play an unorthodox and unconventional style."  With the taller Fulce and Butler, we may see zone traps and situational presses.  We will give up a lot of points, but we will hope to outscore our opponents.

This year's play will reflect his senior talent that he will help showcase.  The Buzz system and its impact will be fully implemented with a taller and bigger frontcourt starting next year.  Our seniors will shine this year and will carry us deep into the postseason as Buzz will just let them do what they do best.  Just my take on it all.

[Henry Sugar]

So, uh, what is it, Hank?

2008-2009
Somewhere around 11-12 wins

2009-2010
Somewhere between 6-10 wins

[bilsu]

NON CONFERENCE 10-3 TO 12-1
BIG EAST 9-9 TO 11-7
BIG EAST TOURNAMENT 1-1 TO 2-1
NCAA TOURNAMENT 0-1 TO 2-1
WORSE CASE 20-14
BEST CASE 27-10
IF THEY END UP IN NIT, I THINK THEY WILL WIN IT.

[Doctor V]

All five Illini starters were either drafted by an NBA team or signed as free agents after college.  4 of them were drafted, including 2 in the first round and 1 in the lottery.

Being incredibly generous, MU might get 3 guys off this team into the NBA at some point, but it would take a miracle for any of them to be drafted as high as the Illini players.

As for the supposed lack of interior play, the Illini had James Augustine, who was UofI's all time leading rebounder, all time leader in field goal percentage, and one of only 12 players in the history of the Big 10 to score 1000 points and grab 1000 rebounds.  He averaged 10 points and 7 rebounds a game during that season. 

MU has Dwight Burke, who has scored in double figures twice in his career, and has one double digit rebound game.

They aren't even close to being comparable teams.

so you are saying that williams, brown, and head are not comparble at the college level to mcneal, james, and matthews? I dont care where they get drafted. Ill give you augustine as a solid contributor being the difference, and that those 3 guards may be balanced each other better. however, we have Lazar at the 4 and they had roger powel jr.

I just dont see how you think theres no comparison. Personally, I think Id take DJ, Jerel, Wes, Lazar and anyone at the 5 over their line-up of williams, brown, head, powell, and augustine. Its atleast close

[NCMUFan]

It will be interesting to see if Burke can hit a free throw and actually put in a putback or feed.  If not, just expect a lot of fouls from him and an occasional rebound.  I am pretty much expecting our semi-annual  thrashings from Louisville.  We should have a respectable record, but if the BEAST improved with us only holding par, we may slip this year in BEAST standings.  Injuries will be key.  We drop off everywhere pretty quickly in talent from the bench, except at the 5 where it just can't get any worse.

[Marquette84]

All five Illini starters were either drafted by an NBA team or signed as free agents after college.  4 of them were drafted, including 2 in the first round and 1 in the lottery.

Being incredibly generous, MU might get 3 guys off this team into the NBA at some point, but it would take a miracle for any of them to be drafted as high as the Illini players.

As for the supposed lack of interior play, the Illini had James Augustine, who was UofI's all time leading rebounder, all time leader in field goal percentage, and one of only 12 players in the history of the Big 10 to score 1000 points and grab 1000 rebounds.  He averaged 10 points and 7 rebounds a game during that season. 

MU has Dwight Burke, who has scored in double figures twice in his career, and has one double digit rebound game.

They aren't even close to being comparable teams.

The flaw in your analysis is that you are comparing Illinois AFTER their final four run to MU the season before.  You're comparing teams at differnet points of their development.

Let's face it, the Illinois players got NBA consideration because of their play THAT season, not because of their play the year before. 

You cannot compare the Illinois team from AFTER their final four run--you have to look at what they did the previous year--BEFORE the 2004-05 season.   THAT is where MU is today.

If you do that, then the comparson of MU right now to Illinois BEFORE their final four run is an apt comparision.  Illinois had a very slight edge making the sweet 16 the year before, while MU fell one basket short.  Illinois finished with a #11 rank versus #21 for MU--which I view as more related to the relative strenght of conference than anything else--Indeed, MU in 2008 had an RPI edge, #20 compared to #23 for the 2004 Illini.

If anything stops MU it will be the strenght of the Big East which will result in a few more losses during the year.  4 or 5 losses may be very respectible in the BE this season, but it won't get you a #1 or #2 seed, which means facing tougher teams earlier in the tournament, and more potential for a loss.

I'm not predicting that MU will make the final four, but I would say that a comparison to the 2005 Illinois team isn't as farfetched as you make it sound.

[bma725]

The flaw in your analysis is that you are comparing Illinois AFTER their final four run to MU the season before.  You're comparing teams at differnet points of their development.

Development doesn't have much to do with it, I'm talking about talent.  Illinois had more of it than MU does. 

You cannot compare the Illinois team from AFTER their final four run--you have to look at what they did the previous year--BEFORE the 2004-05 season.   THAT is where MU is today.

Again, I'm comparing talent, not development.  MU simply doesn't have the same level of talent as Illinois did.  MU doesn't have a post player on Augustine's level, whether we're talking about him as a Freshman in 2002 or a Senior in 2006.  Doesn't matter how much Burke develops this year, he doesn't have the talent necessary to be that good. 

[MR.HAYWARD]

It will be interesting to see if Burke can hit a free throw and actually put in a putback or feed.

Are you serious.  Granted Burke is a mason at the free throw line but his ability to catch and finish in the paint is really really good.  Putback against Georgetown??  Great hands and if I recall led the team in dunks last year off penatration and the layoff.  Maybe you are mistaking him with Ooze who regularly got rejected by the rim trying to dunk or simply missed point blank layups. 

That post is exactly why I think Burke is really going to surprise this year.  So many people have simply an incorrect assesmant of the guy

[bma725]

however, we have Lazar at the 4 and they had roger powel jr.

I just dont see how you think theres no comparison. Personally, I think Id take DJ, Jerel, Wes, Lazar and anyone at the 5 over their line-up of williams, brown, head, powell, and augustine. Its atleast close

Lazar and Powell are pretty equal IMO.  Lazar is a better shooter, Powell a better defender.  Powell averaged 12PPG and 5.7RPG that year, Hayward is coming off a season of 12.8PPG and 6.5RPG.  

As a group, the three Illini guards as a group are better than the three MU guards.  I'm not even sure that you can argue individually any of the MU guards is as good as any of the Illinois guards.  Augustine is better than anyone MU throws out at the 5....heck I'd even argue that Nick Smith is better than anyone MU can put out there at the 5 and he was a back up.  

[PJDunn]

If Mr. Hayward is right, we have a real chance to finish in the top 4 of the BE and make some noise in March.  IF Mr. Hayward is wrong, our success will be largely defined by the ability of our perimeter players to consistently hit their 3's.

[NCMUFan]

Mr. Hayward, I hope you are dead right and I am dead wrong about Burke.  We will see.

[Kramerica]

Yeah there is a big difference between us and that Illinois team.  That Illinois team would bring two or three tall guys off the bench who would easily have started for us at the 5. 

For prediction, I'm saying 23-25 wins and a 2nd round exit in the NCAA.  I hope I'm wrong though. 

[Big Daddy 84]

As long as MU stays healthy they will make it to the second weekend on the NCAA.... and they will have a bye for the first game of the BET.

Mc"Steal" has a great shot at BE POTY and will pickup right where he left off last year.

LH is primed for a great year.
Burke will play like a senior and more like he did against UW.

They will be a #3 seed in the NCAA, I think that worked out well last time they were a #3.

[WashDCWarrior]

I think James will have an excellent year.  McNeal's finish to last season will take the pressure off of James to be a scorer.  James plays really well when he has a distributor mentality and I see him averaging 7 assists/game and his shooting percentage improving simply by eliminating 'dumb' shots and shots forced at end of the shotclock.

The 5 position will be run by comittee, similar to last season.  I can't see Burke consistently getting over 20 minutes/game simply because of his propensity to foul.  I see Otule getting about ten of the other minutes, with the remaining split between Hayward and Fulce.

We'll be able to overcome our lack of a Big East quality center in most games because of the quality of our backcourt, however, it will be devastating against good teams with a good center (UConn, ND, etc.) and will lead to a couple blowouts.

Non-Conference 11-2
Big East 13-5
BE Tourney 2-1
NCAA Tourney 1-1

27-9

[Murffieus]

Ilinois 3 guards could hit treys a lot better than our 3. Plus their bigs were more effective.

I believe 4 of 5 Ilini starters ended up in the NBA as well-----we're lucky if we have one (probably McNeal).

[MUFanInGreenBay]

I predicted long before McNeal blew up at the end of last season that he would be a 1st round pick in next year's NBA draft. I firmly still stand by that prediction. McNeal will prove he can shoot it consistently well all season and he'll also prove he can play the PG spot and run a team effectively. Buzz will have McNeal running the PG spot some this year, which will help showcase McNeal for the NBA.

Speaking of those Illinois guards, I would say that McNeal reminds me a lot of Luther Head who was a 1st round pick. I believe McNeal is every bit as good as Head. I think James compares favorably to Dee Brown, but Brown was a better shooter. Where MU's guards don't stack up to that Illini trio is they don't have someone that can match Deron Williams. Wes Matthews is the only MU guard that can match a guy like Williams size, but other than that Matthews cannot come close to matching Williams in most facets of the game except defense.

[WashDCWarrior]

Ilinois 3 guards could hit treys a lot better than our 3. Plus their bigs were more effective.

I believe 4 of 5 Ilini starters ended up in the NBA as well-----we're lucky if we have one (probably McNeal).

Murf,
I'm not sure how you can state McNeal will be lucky to make the NBA.  He's a borderline first rounder going into the season.  I also think James and Harward have very realistic chances.

[Murffieus]

The last time I looked, McNeal was in the bottom quintile of the nBA mocks. That's a marginal postion relative to the draft. To solidify a better position in the draft he needs a stellar year along with MU overachieving expectations.

[WashDCWarrior]

After my last post, I rechecked some sights.  I found him listed between 46th and 60th, so I overreached calling him a borderline first rounder.  That said, I wouldn't consider him getting drafted to be lucky.