[Rosiak's Blog] A second look

[ToddRosiakSays]

A second look

Written by: Todd Rosiak


Was back at The Al tonight for another open gym session.

It was an impressive hour or so for the team consisting of Dominic James, Lazar Hayward, Pat Hazel, Mike Kinsella and Ousmane Barro, which finished a perfect 4-0.

Those five opened the night by running off 11 straight points to close out the team made up of Jerel McNeal, Wesley Matthews, Joe Chapman, Trend Blackledge and Chris Otule, 11-8.

(Note: these games are played a bit differently in that the team that scores keeps the ball, like winner takes in hustle)

Both James and Hayward were hot from three-point range throughout, and combined with some solid interior play from Hazel and Barro, that squad had the best balance on the evening.

The third team consisted of Maurice Acker, Jimmy Butler, Joe Fulce, Trevor Mbakwe and Dwight Burke, with Liam McMorrow as the sixth man.

The play of the night was a big two-handed dunk by Hazel in the mug of Otule, who got caught after trying to stop some baseline penetration by James.

Here's a few other notes I jotted down:

Nobody handles losing well at MU -- even in pickup games. There was plenty of fire evident throughout, as well. 

Hazel is showing improvement, as he's more aggressive on both ends of the court and also more vocal than he was a season ago.

Another vocal, demonstrative leader has been Acker, who also put on quite a three-point shooting exhibition at the conclusion of the open gym.

Fulce flashed some nice range on his jumper with 3 three-pointers, including a pair from well past the newly extended three-point arc.

Otule and McMorrow were on the court at the same time on different teams for the final game (although they didn't guard each other). Both again struggled making catches in the post -- although a few were the fault of the passers, who more than once rifled the ball or sent it too low -- as well as offensively. Otule played better early, grabbing some boards and scoring once on a putback. McMorrow had a couple nice moves in close, and finished one with a two-handed dunk.

Also, while the games were going on and afterward I grabbed a few of the older guys and polled them a little bit. Here's what each had to say:

Most improved returning player?

Wesley Matthews: I'm going to say Pat. He's stronger, when he's in situations now that he was in last year he's more confident, more assertive. He's willing to talk. And he works. Very few times does Pat not work as hard as he can. When he's active he's tough to play against because he's grabbing rebounds, blocking shots and finishing.

Dominic James: Jerel McNeal's progressing. He looks like a pro every day to me. Dwight Burke has improved. Trevor Mbakwe is a lot more healthy, a lot more explosive, and you can see his knack for the ball.

Lazar Hayward: That's a tough one. Everybody's playing really well, working really hard. But I'd probably have to say Jerel.

Most impressive newcomer?

Wesley Matthews: They've all had their flashes. It's hard to say who's most impressive because when they're confident, in their element, they do good things. Jimmy came down the lane one time and dunked in traffic, Joe hits shots like that. You see Chris battling for rebounds, and then Liam has his times. I mean, he's new to the country, new to the game, but he has his flashes when he understands what we're trying to get out of him and he does it right.

Dominic James: I think Joe. Then Chris, it's been unbelievable. Chris came in and I thought there was no chance, and then in the matter of a week's time I could see he'll be able to help us. I feel like that. Todd Smith, our strength and conditioning coach, has been working him and pushing him physically and mentally, and I feel like he's starting to understand what it takes to play at this level. I don't think he understands physically, but he knows that he's going to have to come in and work his butt off every day just to compete. He's improving almost day to day.

Lazar Hayward: I like both Jimmy and Joe. Chris and Liam are working really hard, but I would probably say the most impressive has been Joe. Joe is just a Shawn Marion in the making, if he isn't now. He's athletic, he's running all over the place, blocking shots, getting dunks. And Jimmy's more of a smooth guy. But he's stronger than he looks, he uses his body well and he always plays hard.

Breakout player in 2008-'09?

Wesley Matthews: Trevor. He looks like the old Trevor.

Dominic James: I don't think people understand how good Jerel's gotten. It's been unbelievable. He's dominating during the off-season, his work ethic is rubbing off on everybody else. It really showed at the end of the year, but it's been daily. It's not a one-time thing. He's making steps every single day.

Lazar Hayward: I think Maurice Acker, definitely. They'll think just because he's small he can't do much, but Maurice is a very intelligent player, and he knows how to get guys the ball. When you think he won't be able to get it past you, he puts the passes there, and that's all you have to do -- give guys the ball. He's always thinking about himself second, and I think he's going to have a great year. And he's been shooting a lot with Jerel -- you know, the Hillcrest Connection.

If you had a vote for a pre-season top 25, where would you rank MU?

Wesley Matthews: I don't see why we can't be put in at No. 1. But that's not up to us; we can't control that now. The only time we can control it is during the season, and that's what we're concerned about.

Dominic James: I'm excited. I'm going to rank us at the top of the list. We're working like we're a No. 1 team. That's the attitude we've got. We're not going to put ourselves up there just because we're talented; we're putting ourselves at No. 1 because of how hard we work.

Lazar Hayward: I would say top 15. But I try not to pay attention to that stuff. They're always going to say what they want. But I honestly believe we should be in the top 15.

How does MU stack up in the Big East at this point?

Wesley Matthews: It's going to be fun to find out.

Dominic James: We're not going to settle for anything less. We feel like this is our year. It's our last go-round for us seniors. I think everybody understands how bad we want to win. But we're not worried about the future; we're worried about right now. I don't think saying that we're going to win the national championship is the right approach. I feel like we've got to have that national championship attitude every day, and that's what we've been having. 

Lazar Hayward: Right now it's hard to tell. We don't know what other teams are doing; we only know what we're doing and how hard we're working. I always feel like we should be in the top of anything in conference, out of conference. It doesn't matter. That's just how I feel about my team. I think we are one of the hardest-working teams on the practice court, and that's how we should play.

Who's your pick for pre-season player of the year in the Big East?

Wesley Matthews: Player of the year? Me.

Dominic James: Jerel McNeal, hands-down.

Lazar Hayward: I'm going to go with Marquette's own Jerel McNeal.



http://blogs.jsonline.com/muhoops/archive/2008/07/17/a-second-look.aspx

[ChicosBailBonds]

Love the leadership of those guys.

[ErickJD08]

Good reporting...

Man, it sounds like Jerel is starting where he left off.  I like what I am hearing about the JuCo's too.  They will not only be able to contribute by giving us some different lineup options but they might help us stay competitive in 2009-2010. 

From the sounds of it, I think Burke might be our only down low player who can put in some meaningful minutes which worries me a bit.

[muarmy81]

Hazel sounds like he's progressing, which is nice to hear.  Although our offense will come from the big 4 we'll need some sort of front line contribution from someone beyond Burke and Mbakwe

[downtown85]

they key will be how Otule will be playing in March 2009 not July 2008.  If his progress keeps up, he may actually be able to contribute when it counts the most. I am also encouraged by comments about Hazel as well.  It sounds like his contribution this year can be greater than zero.

[MUCam]

First - Great piece by Rosiak. Good morsels of information to keep us just above starving before the season begins.

Second - I can't believe the reactions to the "most improved player" question. Two votes for Jerel McNeal? When [arguably] your top returning player is getting kudos for most improved from his teammates, it makes you wonder just how good he [and MU] can be. I polled the board last week about who would be the surprise player of the year. A Naismith honor to McNeal would clearly put him in contention. Is that where he is at? Probably not. But, let's wait and see...

[ecompt]

I know Murff will say this is a "feel-good" piece, but I can't wait for this season to start. This team could run a lot of teams off the court.

[goinUptown]

Good point MUCam...no telling what heights Jerel will hit this year and under his leadership along with DJs, this should be a special team...Jerel will be pretty phenomenal if, as stated, he picks up right where he left off last year...I cannot wait to see what these guys do this year...their gonna tear it up in the BEast...

[Big Papi]

If Jerel can hit the outside shots and the 3 ball with consistency like he was hitting them at the end of last year, look out.  He will be so tough to guard and with some decent finishers down low in Burke, Hazel and Trevor there should be plenty of throw downs and few passes fumbled away unlike years past. 

[MR.HAYWARD]

Jerel was not hitting the 3 ball consistantly down the stretch...he shot it better  and in fact had a couple games where he was hot...but if Jerel fancies himself a three point shooter we could be in trouble...same with James.  Not to knock the kid becuase he is a true Warrior with great heart but the Stanford game is a perfect example of where we fell in love with the 3 ball and it lost the game.    jerel was 9-13 from 2 point range and 4-12 from 3,  way way way too many 3's taken!!   

[ChicosBailBonds]

4 of 12 from the 3 point line is 33% but translates to the same as shooting 50% from two point range.


I understand your point, always dangerous to fall in love with the 3 pointer, especially for a streaky outside shooter like McNeal.  McNeal is a scorer, not a shooter if you know what I mean.  That being said, we can't ignore the efficiency of someone shooting 33% from the 3 point line.


There is a statistic they use in the NBA called True Shooting Percentage.

TS% True Shooting Percentage calculates what a player's shooting percentage would be if we accounted for free throws and 3-pointers. True Shooting Percentage = (Total points x 50) divided by [(FGA + (FTA x 0.44)]

[MUONTOP]

Ok Fine 33% from the three is pretty decent but I think the point here is we only lost by a point and if those 8 (4 for 12, 12 minus 4) possessions that were Mcneal threes were taken from a closer much easier shot they probably could have won the game.  Percentages is not the argument...

[ChicosBailBonds]

Ok Fine 33% from the three is pretty decent but I think the point here is we only lost by a point and if those 8 (4 for 12, 12 minus 4) possessions that were Mcneal threes were taken from a closer much easier shot they probably could have won the game.  Percentages is not the argument...

Yup....understood....of course, if he didn't make some of those 3's we may have lost by 6 instead of 1...right?  You have to look at it both ways.

[jmayer1]

Ok Fine 33% from the three is pretty decent but I think the point here is we only lost by a point and if those 8 (4 for 12, 12 minus 4) possessions that were Mcneal threes were taken from a closer much easier shot they probably could have won the game.  Percentages is not the argument...

So Jerel should have only shot the 3s he was going to make?    I gotta agree with Chicos here.

[Henry Sugar]

Did someone mention stats?

McNeal had an incredible run at the end of last season.  His game really went to the next level starting at Seton Hall.  (This masks that his game was somewhat average before that.)

• For example, in the postseason he shot 53% from the field overall and 40% from three.  Both were up from his season averages (46% ; 30% from three), but the biggest difference was in his three point percentage.
• His turnover rate was down to under 15% from a season average of 18% - which was a career low (27% as a freshmen).  Basically, he went from turning the ball over 1 in 5 possessions to turning it over 1 out of 7.
• There wasn't a noticeable difference in his rebounding rates, and his assist rate went down, so the ORtg improvement really did come from the higher three point percentage.
  

Both of these aspects meant that his postseason Offensive Rating jumped to 120 (from a season average of 105), while his Usage also increased from 20% to 25%.  This basically never happens.  Almost always, when a player dominates more of the offense, then their efficiency goes down.

The Stanford game is an exaggeration of this effect.

• Usage - 35%
• Offensive Rating - 125
• 52% from the field ; 33% from three ; TORate of 11.5%
• Him shooting 4/12 from three wasn't a big deal in this game

The question is if McNeal's Offensive Rating can continue to climb.  It has jumped every year (from 87.5 to 94 to 105), so it's not unreasonable to expect it to climb again.  Also, his turnovers have continued to go down as well, from a rate of 28% to 24% to 18%). 

The biggest sticking points for me are the three-point percentage and his usage.  For his career, McNeal has never shot higher than 31% from three.  I think the 40% he shot in the post-season is an example of him getting hot.  Also, I'm very concerned about his overly high usage, because I don't believe he can maintain the high usage and high Offensive Rating.

In summary, I completely believe that he's playing at a high level, because he's shown improvement every year.  However, I'm also concerned that McNeal is going to think he's a three point shooter and take a large number of shots.

(sorry - got carried away there)

[Big Papi]

Jerel was not hitting the 3 ball consistantly down the stretch...he shot it better  and in fact had a couple games where he was hot...but if Jerel fancies himself a three point shooter we could be in trouble...same with James.  Not to knock the kid becuase he is a true Warrior with great heart but the Stanford game is a perfect example of where we fell in love with the 3 ball and it lost the game.    jerel was 9-13 from 2 point range and 4-12 from 3,  way way way too many 3's taken!!   

Actually the Stanford game was the perfect example where height caused our offense to shoot a lot of jump shots and impacted our team more than anyone cares to realize.  I know we tried to take it too the hoop all game long but still a majority of our shots were jump shots and a lot of Jerel's shots in that game were also jumpers.  He just happened to miss a lot of 3 pointers in regulation, 1-8 but made some very difficult 2 point jump shots.  (Hard to fall in love with the 3 ball when you are not hitting them.)  It was not until overtime that Jerel heated up and nailed 3 straight 3 pointers.  In fact during overtime he was 3-4 from 3 point land and 0-3 from 2 point land. 

Jerel is not a player who will fall in love with his 3 point shot.  His shot selection is more based on what is given to him.  And if you look at his stats during the year you will see that he struggled mightily with his 3 point shot during the first half of the conference season and against Duke and Wisky in the non-conference season (the 2 most difficult games during the non-conference season, rest were creampuffs).  That would be 4-25 and 16%.  Now compare that to the second half of the conference season and post season 23-64 and you will see that his 3 point shooting went from 16% to 36%.  That is a huge improvement that is impossible to ignore.  Now if Jerel can shoot 36% on his 3 point shooting consistently throughout the year, I would guess that defenses will not be able to zone us as much as they have in the past 2 years and consequently the team should benefit greatly.  Imagine having to decide how you want to play McNeal.  Guard him tight and he will blow past you, give him space and he'll can the 3.  Very hard to stop.  Now if only we can develop an inside game this year.  Then we really could be a legit top 5 team.   

[77ncaachamps]

Some insights:

- DJ is hyping up Jerel and probably with good cause. He was hot at the end of the year and his entering the pre-draft class probably reminded DJ of himself. And I think DJ is being more honest of his chances seeing how Jerel stepped it up. Instead of the hate, he's bringing in the love.

- Good to hear Fulce and Butler will contribute right away.

- Even better to hear Hazel's improving greatly.

- Sounds like Otule will be riding the pine for some time. I hope he and McMorrow use the offseason and practice sessions to develop solidly.

- Where's the interview with Jerel? Anyone else notice he wasn't talking (or approached by Todd)?

[rocky_warrior]

- Where's the interview with Jerel? Anyone else notice he wasn't talking (or approached by Todd)?

Donno, but he was in the BBQ interviews that hilltopper posted:
http://www.muscoop.com/index.php?topic=9592.0

[77ncaachamps]

Donno, but he was in the BBQ interviews that hilltopper posted:
http://www.muscoop.com/index.php?topic=9592.0

Right, but when Todd said he was interviewing the vets, I saw Wes, DJ and Lazar up there...but not McNeal (who was mentioned a lot in the interviews).

[ZiggysFryBoy]

Right, but when Todd said he was interviewing the vets, I saw Wes, DJ and Lazar up there...but not McNeal (who was mentioned a lot in the interviews).

Maybe McNeal's going to transfer?

[Daniel]

Great thread!  Fun reading, and exciting to see this team really acting like a team - a unit.  and great to see Hazel stepping it up.  I really think if we can develop a decent inside game this year (with Trevor, Patrick, Burke and Otule contributing), WOW - what a year we can have.

Thanks - great, fun reading

[Sir Lawrence]

Right, but when Todd said he was interviewing the vets, I saw Wes, DJ and Lazar up there...but not McNeal (who was mentioned a lot in the interviews).

No Cubillan either.

[mviale]

Mr Hazel - Are you ready?