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Author Topic: three times "rule"  (Read 13880 times)

mug644

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three times "rule"
« on: March 11, 2008, 08:39:19 AM »
While I'm happy with the matchup against Seton Hall, I can't get that bit of conventional wisdom out of my mind, that it is very difficult to beat the same team three times in one season. I hope that we are not too confident (though I sure believe we have no right to feel that way after Saturday's showing) going into it. There has clearly been a lot of emotion in the two games with SH this season (Nutter v. James), and they know that the end of their road is upon them.

On the other hand, the three times rule makes me excited about the possibility of getting to Louisville!

BrewCity83

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Re: three times "rule"
« Reply #1 on: March 11, 2008, 08:44:30 AM »
Seton Hall is our bitch.
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OneMadWarrior

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Re: three times "rule"
« Reply #2 on: March 11, 2008, 08:56:41 AM »
Yeah because I am sure that teams in the PAC-10 are just as worried about playing Oregon St. 3 times in a year. The three times rule only applies for evenly matched or closely matched teams. Like if Marquette Played Louisville again, that woudl be part of the # times rule.

Unless they play zone, the MU is screwed. I am surprised more coached don't realize this. college coaches, like Crean are too stubborn to change their strategies to fit other teams.
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PuertoRicanNightmare

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Re: three times "rule"
« Reply #3 on: March 11, 2008, 09:07:37 AM »
Are you saying Marquette and Louisville are evenly matched? They've throttled us twice. We struggled with Seton Hall at home.

downtown85

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Re: three times "rule"
« Reply #4 on: March 11, 2008, 09:16:38 AM »
where is Henry Sugar when you need him?  I mean someone should either debunk this myth or find out statistically it is true.  all someone has to do is look up in the database all teams who played each other 3 times in one season and where one team won the first two and see how the 3rd game goes.  (probably no small feat)  actually, i wonder if this is born out in the numbers. 

mug644

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Re: three times "rule"
« Reply #5 on: March 11, 2008, 09:35:25 AM »
Are you saying Marquette and Louisville are evenly matched? They've throttled us twice. We struggled with Seton Hall at home.

I was trying to resist jumping to what might happen on Friday, when we have two games just to get there. No, we are not evenly matched with Louisville, but if the three times rule does indeed serve as a indicator of possible results than grand. Still, if the team is thinking about Louisville, well that gets me even more worried about SH.

Bottom line is I don't have the confidence going into tomorrow night's game that I'd like to have. Yes, we have beaten SH twice, but anything can happen. We could easily blow them out, it could be tight, and we could get solidly beaten. (The nice thing is that, despite the team's inability to step up to quality teams for the most part, we haven't lost to any teams that we were fully expected to beat.)

Maybe this is a new thread, but I worry that part of our poor performance in the post season over the last couple of years is due to over-confidence, that the team has looked ahead to its next game rather than focused on the one at hand.

tonyreeder

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Re: three times "rule"
« Reply #6 on: March 11, 2008, 09:40:44 AM »
Drake won the valley tourney by beating Indiana State, Creighton, and Illinois State each for the third time.   Three time rule is bunk

PuertoRicanNightmare

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Re: three times "rule"
« Reply #7 on: March 11, 2008, 09:52:34 AM »
Are you saying Marquette and Louisville are evenly matched? They've throttled us twice. We struggled with Seton Hall at home.

...I worry that part of our poor performance in the post season over the last couple of years is due to over-confidence, that the team has looked ahead to its next game rather than focused on the one at hand.

I don't believe it's been overconfidence. I believe it's been over-preparation causing "paralysis by analysis." For two straight years, we've opened up like a team afraid of making mistakes and trying to be perfect instead of just playing basketball.

Unfortunately, we had the same problem against Kansas (I know, sore subject).

Our last three NCAA tournament games we've had an average -- an AVERAGE -- halftime deficit of 18 points. Now you tell me, is that overcofidence or poor preparation?

I really believe that Crean gets these guys so worked up and nervous, especially last year, that it results in about a 15 minute adjustment period at the beginning on every NCAA game. 

I just hope when the NCAA pairings come out, Crean isn't immediately lamenting the matchup like he did a year ago.

21Jumpstreet

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Re: three times "rule"
« Reply #8 on: March 11, 2008, 09:53:25 AM »
The three times rule is a myth and a motivation thing.  The better team will win.  We will beat SH.

Big Papi

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Re: three times "rule"
« Reply #9 on: March 11, 2008, 10:04:32 AM »
Are you saying Marquette and Louisville are evenly matched? They've throttled us twice. We struggled with Seton Hall at home.

...I worry that part of our poor performance in the post season over the last couple of years is due to over-confidence, that the team has looked ahead to its next game rather than focused on the one at hand.

I don't believe it's been overconfidence. I believe it's been over-preparation causing "paralysis by analysis." For two straight years, we've opened up like a team afraid of making mistakes and trying to be perfect instead of just playing basketball.

Unfortunately, we had the same problem against Kansas (I know, sore subject).

Our last three NCAA tournament games we've had an average -- an AVERAGE -- halftime deficit of 18 points. Now you tell me, is that overcofidence or poor preparation?

I really believe that Crean gets these guys so worked up and nervous, especially last year, that it results in about a 15 minute adjustment period at the beginning on every NCAA game. 

I just hope when the NCAA pairings come out, Crean isn't immediately lamenting the matchup like he did a year ago.

And here is the really odd part in all of that.  TC's teams don't have any problems in preseason tourneys which they excel at.

Coobeys Oil Depot

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Re: three times "rule"
« Reply #10 on: March 11, 2008, 10:06:37 AM »
Are you saying Marquette and Louisville are evenly matched? They've throttled us twice. We struggled with Seton Hall at home.

And, in the more recent match-up on their home floor, Marquette absolutely bitch slapped Seton Hall from the opening tip.

PuertoRicanNightmare

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Re: three times "rule"
« Reply #11 on: March 11, 2008, 10:12:45 AM »
Are you saying Marquette and Louisville are evenly matched? They've throttled us twice. We struggled with Seton Hall at home.

...I worry that part of our poor performance in the post season over the last couple of years is due to over-confidence, that the team has looked ahead to its next game rather than focused on the one at hand.

I don't believe it's been overconfidence. I believe it's been over-preparation causing "paralysis by analysis." For two straight years, we've opened up like a team afraid of making mistakes and trying to be perfect instead of just playing basketball.

Unfortunately, we had the same problem against Kansas (I know, sore subject).

Our last three NCAA tournament games we've had an average -- an AVERAGE -- halftime deficit of 18 points. Now you tell me, is that overcofidence or poor preparation?

I really believe that Crean gets these guys so worked up and nervous, especially last year, that it results in about a 15 minute adjustment period at the beginning on every NCAA game. 

I just hope when the NCAA pairings come out, Crean isn't immediately lamenting the matchup like he did a year ago.

And here is the really odd part in all of that.  TC's teams don't have any problems in preseason tourneys which they excel at.

I think that's because he's able to prepare the guys for months. Come tournament time, he's trying to jam so much down their throats that they can't possibly process it all.

Anyway, like I said, I'm anticipating better results this year!

Big Papi

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Re: three times "rule"
« Reply #12 on: March 11, 2008, 10:19:30 AM »

Unless they play zone, the MU is screwed. I am surprised more coached don't realize this. college coaches, like Crean are too stubborn to change their strategies to fit other teams.

IMO that is just a generic statement that really doesn't have a lot of merit.  We struggle against zones when our opponents are long and athletic.  Yes our offense bogs down a little when playing against a zone but it is when James, McNeal, Matthews and others attack a compact zone where they can't finish because the opponent is just so much taller and athletic that they disrupt our shots.  

Rewatch the first half of the Syracuse game and it is very clear that their height bothered us badly when we had the ball.  We attacked fairly well and had quite a few shots in the paint but than we were forced to throw up bad shots in the paint or risk getting rejected which is what happened to McNeal at the rim on the second play of the game by a great defensive play.  Against these types of teams (Syracuse, Louisville and UConn) we really need to be firing on all cylinders from the outside to force them to loosen up their zone and by this I mean we need James, McNeal, Cube and Fitz to be nailing open 3 point shots not throwing up bricks which is what they do when we lose.

I have no problems with Seton Hall playing a zone against us.  They have no one big inside to disrupt our shots so its easy pickings for McNeal, James, Matthews and Hayward.  In addition, we would kill them on the boards as well as you need to be a very good rebounding team when playing a zone which Seton Hall is not.  You really need the right personnel to play an effective zone against us for 40 minutes.  Other teams have tried and failed.

Henry Sugar

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Re: three times "rule"
« Reply #13 on: March 11, 2008, 10:21:53 AM »
where is Henry Sugar when you need him?  I mean someone should either debunk this myth or find out statistically it is true.  all someone has to do is look up in the database all teams who played each other 3 times in one season and where one team won the first two and see how the 3rd game goes.  (probably no small feat)  actually, i wonder if this is born out in the numbers. 

I think you said it best... maybe in the offseason.   :)

If anyone else wants to take a crack, here's a list of every single basketball game played this year 

http://kenpom.com/cbbga08.txt
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spiral97

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Re: three times "rule"
« Reply #14 on: March 11, 2008, 11:26:45 AM »
alright fine.. since I must..

I went with last year's results (found at http://kenpom.com/cbbga07.txt) since this year probably doesn't have many 3-peat opponents yet as many conference tourneys haven't started...

here's a summary:
There were 198 times where 2 teams met three times (no teams met more than that).

Possible records when two teams meet 3 times are a sweep (3-0 or 0-3) or a split (1-2 or 2-1).
Of those, one team was swept 85 times (so 113 times a split of some sort happened).  This means that a sweep will happen roughly 42.9%.

A little further analysis:
There were 119 instances where a team swept the first two games in a 3 game series.
That means that when a team wins the first two games in a 3 game series, it also won the 3rd game 71.4% of the time.
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Canned Goods n Ammo

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Re: three times "rule"
« Reply #15 on: March 11, 2008, 11:29:59 AM »
Are you saying Marquette and Louisville are evenly matched? They've throttled us twice. We struggled with Seton Hall at home.

...I worry that part of our poor performance in the post season over the last couple of years is due to over-confidence, that the team has looked ahead to its next game rather than focused on the one at hand.

I don't believe it's been overconfidence. I believe it's been over-preparation causing "paralysis by analysis." For two straight years, we've opened up like a team afraid of making mistakes and trying to be perfect instead of just playing basketball.

Unfortunately, we had the same problem against Kansas (I know, sore subject).

Our last three NCAA tournament games we've had an average -- an AVERAGE -- halftime deficit of 18 points. Now you tell me, is that overcofidence or poor preparation?

I really believe that Crean gets these guys so worked up and nervous, especially last year, that it results in about a 15 minute adjustment period at the beginning on every NCAA game. 

I just hope when the NCAA pairings come out, Crean isn't immediately lamenting the matchup like he did a year ago.

And here is the really odd part in all of that.  TC's teams don't have any problems in preseason tourneys which they excel at.

I think that's because he's able to prepare the guys for months. Come tournament time, he's trying to jam so much down their throats that they can't possibly process it all.

Anyway, like I said, I'm anticipating better results this year!

Interesting take regarding the tournys, and the data (w's and l's) seem to support it.

I'm not sure I'm totally sold on the over-prep thing... but we do know TC has a tendency to obsess and really put in a lot of work, so it seems palusable.

Also, I think the best half MU might have played all year was the comeback against ND... they seemed to play so much looser and more aggressive (similar to what you are saying about not being too tight). I think we all know they are at their best in an open court game... the key for the coaches is how they can put their players in those open court situations.

I still think the tourney is such a game of match-ups and some luck that I can't really put my finger on why MU hasn't won more tourney game (bad match-ups? bad luck? I dunno...)

I'm hoping for sweet sixteen this year because I know the players have worked very hard and I know they want to make it VERY badly.

The Lens

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Re: three times "rule"
« Reply #16 on: March 11, 2008, 11:42:20 AM »
Are you saying Marquette and Louisville are evenly matched? They've throttled us twice. We struggled with Seton Hall at home.

...I worry that part of our poor performance in the post season over the last couple of years is due to over-confidence, that the team has looked ahead to its next game rather than focused on the one at hand.

I don't believe it's been overconfidence. I believe it's been over-preparation causing "paralysis by analysis." For two straight years, we've opened up like a team afraid of making mistakes and trying to be perfect instead of just playing basketball.

Unfortunately, we had the same problem against Kansas (I know, sore subject).

Our last three NCAA tournament games we've had an average -- an AVERAGE -- halftime deficit of 18 points. Now you tell me, is that overcofidence or poor preparation?

I really believe that Crean gets these guys so worked up and nervous, especially last year, that it results in about a 15 minute adjustment period at the beginning on every NCAA game. 

I just hope when the NCAA pairings come out, Crean isn't immediately lamenting the matchup like he did a year ago.

And here is the really odd part in all of that.  TC's teams don't have any problems in preseason tourneys which they excel at.

That's b/c when other coaches are goling all summer ours breaking down our 7 possible pre season tourney opponents.  No one walks into Maui, Alaska, KC etc more prepared than MU.
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chapman

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Re: three times "rule"
« Reply #17 on: March 11, 2008, 11:45:18 AM »
A little further analysis:
There were 119 instances where a team swept the first two games in a 3 game series.
That means that when a team wins the first two games in a 3 game series, it also won the 3rd game 71.4% of the time.

Thanks for that.  I was just about to say "If it's so tough to beat a team three times, why does it happen 70% of the time?"  Now there are numbers to support that.  If it's a case like Pitt last year, you can see how we lose game three.  Even after winning the first two, there wasn't much optimism for beating them again.  This is Seton Hall,  team we're expected to beat anytime, anywhere.
« Last Edit: March 11, 2008, 11:48:55 AM by chapman »

MarquetteVol

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Re: three times "rule"
« Reply #18 on: March 11, 2008, 11:50:54 AM »
I think bad luck has certainly played a role in 2 of our previous 4 tourney appearances. In 2003, we definitely caught some breaks. If it wasn't for Travis we would have been one-and-done. The Tulsa game could have gone either way. The Alabama game could have gone either way, too. Michigan State was obviously a sound beating.

TC is 4-4 in the tournament. Of those 4 losses, two were very close games and two were not.


MUSF

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Re: three times "rule"
« Reply #19 on: March 11, 2008, 12:04:18 PM »
I sort of agree with PRN here. Crean's strengths are recruiting and preparation. He is not a great game coach. In order for us to win games against good teams/good coaches, our players have to play to their ability and our game plan has to be good enough to compensate for TCs game management. Reminds me a little of Mike Martz in the NFL.

That said, I still think Crean is a very good coach and, at this point, MU should do everything they can to keep him around. There are only a handful of coaches out there who are great recruiters, teachers, preparers (I know, not a word), and game managers. Anyone who thinks we could get rid of Crean and hire a coach that can do all of those things at an elite level, is delusional. Crean has brought our program to a high level in a short period of time and seems to be continuing that improvement. There may come a time that he plateaus and someone else may be able to take the program to the next level but I don't think that time is now.

MarquetteDano

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Re: three times "rule"
« Reply #20 on: March 11, 2008, 12:05:41 PM »

Unless they play zone, the MU is screwed. I am surprised more coached don't realize this. college coaches, like Crean are too stubborn to change their strategies to fit other teams.

IMO that is just a generic statement that really doesn't have a lot of merit.  We struggle against zones when our opponents are long and athletic.  Yes our offense bogs down a little when playing against a zone but it is when James, McNeal, Matthews and others attack a compact zone where they can't finish because the opponent is just so much taller and athletic that they disrupt our shots.  

Rewatch the first half of the Syracuse game and it is very clear that their height bothered us badly when we had the ball.  We attacked fairly well and had quite a few shots in the paint but than we were forced to throw up bad shots in the paint or risk getting rejected which is what happened to McNeal at the rim on the second play of the game by a great defensive play.  Against these types of teams (Syracuse, Louisville and UConn) we really need to be firing on all cylinders from the outside to force them to loosen up their zone and by this I mean we need James, McNeal, Cube and Fitz to be nailing open 3 point shots not throwing up bricks which is what they do when we lose.

I have no problems with Seton Hall playing a zone against us.  They have no one big inside to disrupt our shots so its easy pickings for McNeal, James, Matthews and Hayward.  In addition, we would kill them on the boards as well as you need to be a very good rebounding team when playing a zone which Seton Hall is not.  You really need the right personnel to play an effective zone against us for 40 minutes.  Other teams have tried and failed.


I am nominating this post as one of the best of year.  I keep hearing comments like "coaches should be fired if they don't play zone against us".  The post basically refutes that statement.  Some teams can pull if off against us, others cannot.  Even teams that cannot may be able to get away with it for a few posessions, but if they play it the whole game sooner or later for the reasons MUFanatic specified, it will be broken down.

PuertoRicanNightmare

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Re: three times "rule"
« Reply #21 on: March 11, 2008, 12:09:09 PM »
I sort of agree with PRN here. Crean's strengths are recruiting and preparation. He is not a great game coach. In order for us to win games against good teams/good coaches, our players have to play to their ability and our game plan has to be good enough to compensate for TCs game management. Reminds me a little of Mike Martz in the NFL.

That said, I still think Crean is a very good coach and, at this point, MU should do everything they can to keep him around. There are only a handful of coaches out there who are great recruiters, teachers, preparers (I know, not a word), and game managers. Anyone who thinks we could get rid of Crean and hire a coach that can do all of those things at an elite level, is delusional. Crean has brought our program to a high level in a short period of time and seems to be continuing that improvement. There may come a time that he plateaus and someone else may be able to take the program to the next level but I don't think that time is now.

Just a point of clarification...I do not think recruiting is a strength of Crean's. In fact, regardless of glowing reports and reputation, I think it's his biggest weakness as a coach.

MUSF

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Re: three times "rule"
« Reply #22 on: March 11, 2008, 12:31:18 PM »
"Just a point of clarification...I do not think recruiting is a strength of Crean's. In fact, regardless of glowing reports and reputation, I think it's his biggest weakness as a coach."

Trust me, I know how you feel about Crean as a recruiter. I was trying to reference your post regarding preparation/over-preparation.

Regarding the recruiting issue, I completely disagree.  TC has put together a team that will be making its 3rd straight NCAA appearance and there is no reason to believe that next year won't be number 4. That is something this program hasn't done in a long time and you can't get to that level without talent. I know you have pointed to our lack of highly rated recruits as a weakness but what about Crean's ability to find talent that other teams are over-looking? DWade, McNeal, Hayward, Cubillan, etc... I love TCs approach to recruiting. He doesn't go all in with a few highly rated guys. He finds talent that can help this team regardless of location or ranking.

 

jmayer1

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Re: three times "rule"
« Reply #23 on: March 11, 2008, 12:37:08 PM »
I sort of agree with PRN here. Crean's strengths are recruiting and preparation. He is not a great game coach. In order for us to win games against good teams/good coaches, our players have to play to their ability and our game plan has to be good enough to compensate for TCs game management. Reminds me a little of Mike Martz in the NFL.

That said, I still think Crean is a very good coach and, at this point, MU should do everything they can to keep him around. There are only a handful of coaches out there who are great recruiters, teachers, preparers (I know, not a word), and game managers. Anyone who thinks we could get rid of Crean and hire a coach that can do all of those things at an elite level, is delusional. Crean has brought our program to a high level in a short period of time and seems to be continuing that improvement. There may come a time that he plateaus and someone else may be able to take the program to the next level but I don't think that time is now.

Just a point of clarification...I do not think recruiting is a strength of Crean's. In fact, regardless of glowing reports and reputation, I think it's his biggest weakness as a coach.

I think Crean is an ok recruiter.  He gets guys that fit his system and are within his reach, but until MU starts to be in on the top recruits (ie-Shumpert) time after time and eventually starts to land a few; he won't be a great recruiter IMO.  I think Crean's biggest fault is his in game management.  There have been two games (ND & G-Town) where we had time to get off a good last second shot and failed.  I also don't particularly care for the set plays we run either, it doesn't seem like we get many open shots from them. 

spiral97

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Re: three times "rule"
« Reply #24 on: March 11, 2008, 12:58:11 PM »
A little further analysis:
There were 119 instances where a team swept the first two games in a 3 game series.
That means that when a team wins the first two games in a 3 game series, it also won the 3rd game 71.4% of the time.

Thanks for that.  I was just about to say "If it's so tough to beat a team three times, why does it happen 70% of the time?"  Now there are numbers to support that.  If it's a case like Pitt last year, you can see how we lose game three.  Even after winning the first two, there wasn't much optimism for beating them again.  This is Seton Hall,  team we're expected to beat anytime, anywhere.

not to be nit-picky but I am not sure I was clear on the numbers.. It doesn't happen 70% of the time.. it happens roughly 43% of the possible times.. the 70% number is the percentage of times that a 2 game sweep turned into a 3 game sweep.

either way though, the statement in question is "it's hard to beat a team three times in a row in the same season".  I think you're right.. whether you make that statement before the first two games have been swept or not, I wouldn't classify it as hard or even unlikely.  2 out of 5 times a 3 game series was swept.
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