Will MU make a Final Four..............

[Mods, Delete me please. 8/26/2020]

curious to see your opinions.

[mu_hilltopper]

Wow.  Lots of dreamers on here. 

[ChicosBailBonds]

Wow.  Lots of dreamers on here. 

Dreaming don't cost nothing   

[tower912]

Dreamers want the "0 to 5 WEEKS" option.   Dream big, baby!

[mu_hilltopper]

60% think we're going to get to a FF in 0-4 years.  That's amazing.

FF's are unbelievably special and difficult.   It takes a very extraordinary team, and some luck to make it there.  

Based on the past 9 seasons .. I just don't see that special player, that special recruit, that special scheme and luck required tumbling into place any time soon.   0-4 years means people think there are players on the team TODAY that could make a top 4 team.   I just don't see that.

Luck happens, I do admit.  But with elite teams getting 5 star recruits every year .. we'd need a hell of diamond in the rough and a wheelbarrow full of luck.

[dwaderoy2004]

I agree.  Really, the poll should be:

A.  in the next 4 years
B.  in the next 10 years
C.  in the next 20 years

to try and predict a 5 year window is kinda silly, especially not knowing team make-up.

[augoman]

actually, I don't see it happening- Al built a ten year top ten team before he got there, Crean grabbed a comet by the tail along w/ 3-4 of his other best recruits ever.  It'd be great, but it'll have to be down the road.

[ChicosBailBonds]

I voted 5-9 years for all the reasons hilltopper and augoman state.

First, you have to consistently make the NCAA.  We're now approaching that...3 straight years...5 of the last 7.

Then it's consistently getting a few wins in the tournament each year

Then that leads to better recruits, etc.

Just look at Arizona or Duke or UCONN, etc....for years they were nobody and then they got considerably better each year to the point it becomes reloading time.

I think if Crean stays, we continue to build on momentum, add more and more talent I could see it in the next 10 years.

[79Warrior]

I voted 5-9 years for all the reasons hilltopper and augoman state.

First, you have to consistently make the NCAA.  We're now approaching that...3 straight years...5 of the last 7.

Then it's consistently getting a few wins in the tournament each year

Then that leads to better recruits, etc.

Just look at Arizona or Duke or UCONN, etc....for years they were nobody and then they got considerably better each year to the point it becomes reloading time.

I think if Crean stays, we continue to build on momentum, add more and more talent I could see it in the next 10 years.

Three straight years in the tourney is hardly setting the NCAA on fire. Plenty of teams have runs much longer than that.

[PuertoRicanNightmare]

As Chicos points out, 3 straight years is great and some movement in the tourney would be especially great. My problem is our recruiting doesn't seem to be getting better.

I have a hard time seeing us get back in the next 10 years unless we get some real breaks or another ridiculous sleeper recruit falls into our laps.

Look at how close Xavier has come for years. They've arguably had a better program than us since the late 80s and they've never made it. They've been close, but always fallen short.

We need a huge talent or some big guys. Right now, we don't have that and I don't see it coming down the pipeline.

I'd be happy with a couple wins and some representative play!

[mu03eng]

I think we can get there in the next 4 years, but honestly its more likely in the 5-9 years.  One reason I'm big on keeping Crean as long as possible is that while the program grows Crean also grows.  I think he is improving as a recruiter, a coach, and an X and O's guy.  Remember this is his first head coaching stop, there has to be a learning curve there.  Just look at this year, he has backed off his practice regimen at the end of the season as many were clamoring for and I think its served the team well.  I think if we keep Crean....5 years from now will be light years ahead of where we were even 4 years ago.

[ChicosBailBonds]

I voted 5-9 years for all the reasons hilltopper and augoman state.

First, you have to consistently make the NCAA.  We're now approaching that...3 straight years...5 of the last 7.

Then it's consistently getting a few wins in the tournament each year

Then that leads to better recruits, etc.

Just look at Arizona or Duke or UCONN, etc....for years they were nobody and then they got considerably better each year to the point it becomes reloading time.

I think if Crean stays, we continue to build on momentum, add more and more talent I could see it in the next 10 years.

Three straight years in the tourney is hardly setting the NCAA on fire. Plenty of teams have runs much longer than that.

I understand that....but considering it's been since 1981 since we did it, we're going in the right direction.  Baby steps frist.

The problem is that we hit the homerun so fast in 2003 that it set expectations through the roof....and the reality is that it's a lot more difficult then some people think.

[Henry Sugar]

I voted 5-9 years.  I really view the path of all personal growth in the following chart (based on a book called "Mastery")

The basic theory is that all personal growth is essentially long stretches of plateaus, followed by sudden upticks of rapid progress.  A downswing then happens, followed by another plateau that is at a higher level than before.



That's how I think about building a program.  It's not an exact analogy, but it makes sense.  The program has made progress (NCAA consistently but no wins yet) but appears to have plateaued.  Hopefully (please) this will be the year that we have a sudden uptick of NCAA success.  Then we'll have some sort of downswing, but the overall program will be performing at a higher overall level. 

Maybe our next plateau is consistently making the NCAA tournament and consistently winning.

FYI - my view of the next peak is 2011.  Led by:
Seniors - Christopherson, Mbakwe, Hazel, Fulce
Juniors - OTule, NWilliams, Tyshawn Taylor
Sophomores - Erik Williams, Jamil Wilson

[mwbauer7]

I voted 5-9 years.  I really view the path of all personal growth in the following chart (based on a book called "Mastery")

I like your thinking, but with the dynamics of collegiate athletics (4 years of eligibility, 18-23 year olds) seems too much to outweigh the benefits of static (longevity from a head coach (I'm from the camp that says Crean can stay as long as he wants*)) aspects. But I suppose there could be some application of the chart.


*some future NCAA tournament success would be nice

[Doctor V]

i dont think you can count on previous years success at a school like MU. you have to look at recruting classes because we simply dont get enough top 50 type of talent. That said, when will be the next time we get 3 top 100 guards all in the same class??  especially 3 guys that stick around for so long? eh i dont know. so, my best guess would be this year or next. i know i know im crazy if i think that this team can make the Final 4, but i know that they can play with/beat final 4 quality teams (gtown, duke, wisc, ND are all top 3/4 seeds)- besides we arent gonna have talent and depth like this for a while

next year, if james stays, will probably be the best shot at it, atleast in the next 10 yrs or so. everyone knows about the experience and talent we would have next yr.

im not the type of guy that pins my hopes on the future without seeing someone step on a college court. i hope williams and taylor are as good as mcneal/mathews/james, but i would be very surprised

[ChicosBailBonds]

i dont think you can count on previous years success at a school like MU. you have to look at recruting classes because we simply dont get enough top 50 type of talent. That said, when will be the next time we get 3 top 100 guards all in the same class??  especially 3 guys that stick around for so long? eh i dont know. so, my best guess would be this year or next. i know i know im crazy if i think that this team can make the Final 4, but i know that they can play with/beat final 4 quality teams (gtown, duke, wisc, ND are all top 3/4 seeds)- besides we arent gonna have talent and depth like this for a while

next year, if james stays, will probably be the best shot at it, atleast in the next 10 yrs or so. everyone knows about the experience and talent we would have next yr.

im not the type of guy that pins my hopes on the future without seeing someone step on a college court. i hope williams and taylor are as good as mcneal/mathews/james, but i would be very surprised

My only problem with this is that we don't know what the next 10 years will look like.  And despite the rankings, wouldn't you say that Lazar Hayward is one of our top 3 players right now?  Maybe even top 2?  Players change, rankings can be off the mark (Wade, etc)

[Canned Goods n Ammo]

I voted 5-9 years.  I really view the path of all personal growth in the following chart (based on a book called "Mastery")

The basic theory is that all personal growth is essentially long stretches of plateaus, followed by sudden upticks of rapid progress.  A downswing then happens, followed by another plateau that is at a higher level than before.



That's how I think about building a program.  It's not an exact analogy, but it makes sense.  The program has made progress (NCAA consistently but no wins yet) but appears to have plateaued.  Hopefully (please) this will be the year that we have a sudden uptick of NCAA success.  Then we'll have some sort of downswing, but the overall program will be performing at a higher overall level. 

Maybe our next plateau is consistently making the NCAA tournament and consistently winning.

FYI - my view of the next peak is 2011.  Led by:
Seniors - Christopherson, Mbakwe, Hazel, Fulce
Juniors - OTule, NWilliams, Tyshawn Taylor
Sophomores - Erik Williams, Jamil Wilson

This is a pretty realistic view. Well put.

There are great coaches throughout NCAA history who have taken years to build up great programs. Syracuse was not Syracuse before Boheim. Duke wasn't Duke before Coach K. The list goes on and on.

I'm not sure if TC is really ever going to be a hall of famer (like the guys I've mentioned)... but he's earned the right and shown enough glimpses for fans to be patient and enjoy the quality of the product as it currently stands.

[Marquette84]

As Chicos points out, 3 straight years is great and some movement in the tourney would be especially great. My problem is our recruiting doesn't seem to be getting better.

You've been telling us for years how lousy our 2003 recruiting class was--are you really suggesting that the last three years were no better than 2003?  

You can't possibly believe that garbage.  

It's not even detbatable that our current junior class is first or second best that Crean has brought to MU.  

Now compare who's leaving to who's arriving.  Last year we lose Lott and Kinsella and gain Christopherson, and Mbakwe.  But recruiting is not improving?

This year we lose Fitzgerald (transfer from Tulane), Barro (didn't play in HS) and Blackledge (who's recruitment you've ripped mercilessly), and replace them with Williams (damn near made the McD all AMerica team), Tyshawn Taylor (one of the top guards in the country), Fulce (who was good enough to be signed by Texas A&M) and O'Tule (who's tearing it up in a tough Houston HS conference).

Yet you claim recruiting isn't getting better?

Your hatred for the program obviously clouds everything post.  There is no credibility to the comment that recruiting hasn't improved.  

And for the record, while Xavier has had a couple of good teams over the past 20 years, their program is not "arguably better" since the late 1980's.  Perhaps it was a typo, and you meant to say that Xavier was a better program IN the late 1980's.  Since?  No way.  

[NavinRJohnson]

i don't think you can count on previous years success at a school like MU. you have to look at recruiting classes because we simply dont get enough top 50 type of talent. That said, when will be the next time we get 3 top 100 guards all in the same class??  especially 3 guys that stick around for so long? eh i dont know. so, my best guess would be this year or next. i know i know im crazy if i think that this team can make the Final 4, but i know that they can play with/beat final 4 quality teams (gtown, duke, wisc, ND are all top 3/4 seeds)- besides we arent gonna have talent and depth like this for a while

next year, if james stays, will probably be the best shot at it, atleast in the next 10 yrs or so. everyone knows about the experience and talent we would have next yr.

im not the type of guy that pins my hopes on the future without seeing someone step on a college court. i hope williams and taylor are as good as mcneal/mathews/james, but i would be very surprised

I happen to agree. I think MU is going to be extremely good next year (yes, I am assuming James will be back). The odds of correctly predicting any team to make a FF in any given year has a pretty low probably of success - too many unknowns. However, I think MU is gonna win a whole lotta games next year and will enter the tournament as a top 3 seed. When you are in that neighborhood, you have as good a shot as anyone.

Heck, I certainly wouldn't predict it, but they're pretty good this year, and if you get the right match ups, you never know. There is a very small handful of teams that I don't think we can play with. Any other game they will get is winnable. Unlikely to be sure, but possible.

[ChicosBailBonds]

He doesn't hate the program...just doesn't like the coach.   

[ChicosBailBonds]

i don't think you can count on previous years success at a school like MU. you have to look at recruiting classes because we simply dont get enough top 50 type of talent. That said, when will be the next time we get 3 top 100 guards all in the same class??  especially 3 guys that stick around for so long? eh i dont know. so, my best guess would be this year or next. i know i know im crazy if i think that this team can make the Final 4, but i know that they can play with/beat final 4 quality teams (gtown, duke, wisc, ND are all top 3/4 seeds)- besides we arent gonna have talent and depth like this for a while

next year, if james stays, will probably be the best shot at it, atleast in the next 10 yrs or so. everyone knows about the experience and talent we would have next yr.

im not the type of guy that pins my hopes on the future without seeing someone step on a college court. i hope williams and taylor are as good as mcneal/mathews/james, but i would be very surprised

I happen to agree. I think MU is going to be extremely good next year (yes, I am assuming James will be back). The odds of correctly predicting any team to make a FF in any given year has a pretty low probably of success - too many unknowns. However, I think MU is gonna win a whole lotta games next year and will enter the tournament as a top 3 seed. When you are in that neighborhood, you have as good a shot as anyone.

Heck, I certainly wouldn't predict it, but they're pretty good this year, and if you get the right match ups, you never know. There is a very small handful of teams that I don't think we can play with. Any other game they will get is winnable. Unlikely to be sure, but possible.

Didn't you hear, James has a $500,000 contract in hand to play in Europe....or so the Badgernation idiots are saying.   

[MUfan12]

Chicos- Can you post a link? I did a quick scan of their board and couldn't find it.

I'd love to see what "sources" they have for this...

[ChicosBailBonds]

Chicos- Can you post a link? I did a quick scan of their board and couldn't find it.

I'd love to see what "sources" they have for this...

Sources?  You're joking right. 


http://mbd.scout.com/mb.aspx?s=193#s=193&f=2565&t=2042583

[MUfan12]

Yes, definitely joking.

That thread is a trip. The kid rumor is one that I have heard as well, but I don't see it as having any credibility.

I do have to say though, I'm not a huge fan of the oversigning policy.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Yes, definitely joking.

That thread is a trip. The kid rumor is one that I have heard as well, but I don't see it as having any credibility.

I do have to say though, I'm not a huge fan of the oversigning policy.

I'm not a huge fan either, but it would be almost implausible to me that a kid that signs knowing we are at the limit does not know that coming in.  He can count like anyone else, so can his parents, his AAU coach, his HS coach, etc.