🇮🇱 vs 🇮🇷

[The Sultan]

I'll admit I was coming at that comment from more of a "do no harm" standpoint - e.g. don't include Iran in your axis of evil SoTU speach because you've got a forever war to defend and everyone knows axes need to have three countries.  So you raise a good practical point. I'll give you something between "brilliant" and "terribly naive" in that I'm no expert in covert ops to sow discontent and support opposition, but the Mahsa Amini protests showed there is a lot to work with on the ground. Maybe Western powers already are offering quiet but meaningful support to opposition voices, but I think we'd be a lot further along if Western politicians weren't so anxious to score easy political points with bellicose anti-Iranian rhetoric.

That being said, I do think there is a low, but not insignificant chance that Iran shows itself totally incapable of a meaningful military response here, and the realization of that weakness is a contributing factor to regime change.  I'm just pessimistic that Netanyahu is sufficiently committed to the bit, rather than hoping to score a few easy points.  (Or maybe he's way too committed and wont stop until he achieves regime change, no matter the cost, to save his own skin? Idk, either way he's far from a trustworthy actor here and that's an unwelcome complication.)

Look I get it. But there have been plenty of times where the west has shown a willingness for negotiation, only to have Iran do something to score their own political points. 

This I think is why Pak won't answer the question. Because just assuming that if we can use all carrot and no stick is simply not realistic. That's certainly not how we managed things with the Soviets back in the day.

[Scoop Snoop]

A lot of people don't like Putin but I admire the way he handles political opponents.  Can't do that in America because of woke

His opponents get dizzy from the publicity they receive by opposing him. Maybe that's why so many have fallen off of the little porches of their high-rise apartments.

[Pakuni]

Look I get it. But there have been plenty of times where the west has shown a willingness for negotiation, only to have Iran do something to score their own political points. 

This I think is why Pak won't answer the question. Because just assuming that if we can use all carrot and no stick is simply not realistic. That's certainly not how we managed things with the Soviets back in the day.

Nope.

There definitely needs to be a stick. Just not a military stick. Much like the fall of the Soviet Union, any collapse of the Iranian regime will be the result of cultural and economic pressures, not military. We didn't bomb the Soviets into submission, and we won't bomb the mullahs out of existence either.
What might end them is economic isolation and a bombardment of cultural messaging. To some extent, it's been working. The Iranian economy is in tatters, and polling consistently shows a majority of the public blames their leadership - not Israel, not the Great Satan - for their struggles. The protests of 2022-23 didn't bring about regime change, but the fact they happened shows it's weakening its grip.

My fear here is that the progress that's been made will evaporate with a prolonged war with Israel/the West. The Iranians may not love their leaders, but they like foreign interference even less ... and not for nothing.
Israel's actions here give the mullahs an opportunity to rally the populace against a common enemy, and as we know, the Iranians aren't afraid of enduring massive hardship under those circumstances.

[Hards Alumni]

bingo

[The Sultan]

Nope.

There definitely needs to be a stick. Just not a military stick. Much like the fall of the Soviet Union, any collapse of the Iranian regime will be the result of cultural and economic pressures, not military. We didn't bomb the Soviets into submission, and we won't bomb the mullahs out of existence either.
What might end them is economic isolation and a bombardment of cultural messaging. To some extent, it's been working. The Iranian economy is in tatters, and polling consistently shows a majority of the public blames their leadership - not Israel, not the Great Satan - for their struggles. The protests of 2022-23 didn't bring about regime change, but the fact they happened shows it's weakening its grip.

My fear here is that the progress that's been made will evaporate with a prolonged war with Israel/the West. The Iranians may not love their leaders, but they like foreign interference even less ... and not for nothing.
Israel's actions here give the mullahs an opportunity to rally the populace against a common enemy, and as we know, the Iranians aren't afraid of enduring massive hardship under those circumstances.

What you are describing is certainly effective, but I any really "encouraging democratic values."

[Shaka Shart]

Big if true, Robin Wright.

https://www.npr.org/2025/06/16/nx-s1-5432616/foreign-affairs-analyst-and-author-robin-wright-discusses-the-iran-israel-conflict

"The Iranian regime is very unpopular, but this is a moment where Persian nationalism, which goes back five millennia - people are very proud. They don't like to be attacked."

[Pakuni]

Big if true, Robin Wright.

https://www.npr.org/2025/06/16/nx-s1-5432616/foreign-affairs-analyst-and-author-robin-wright-discusses-the-iran-israel-conflict

"The Iranian regime is very unpopular, but this is a moment where Persian nationalism, which goes back five millennia - people are very proud. They don't like to be attacked."

She was great on "House of Cards."

[Jockey]

What you are describing is certainly effective, but I any really "encouraging democratic values."

Translate please for us non-persians..

[MuggsyB]

Russia is estimated to possess around 5,580 nuclear warheads, according to the Federation of American Scientists. This includes both deployed and non-deployed warheads. Approximately 1,710 are believed to be deployed on strategic delivery systems like missiles and bombers, while others are held in storage or are awaiting dismantlement

I don't give a flying f if they or Iran have weapons or nukes as deep as the Mariana Trench.  The attacks in Israel and Ukraine would never have taken place and Putin and the Mullahs would be fertilizer.  And the next in line if they pull the same bullcrap?  Batter up.  None of this should havd ever happened and rational people know why we are at this point.

[MuggsyB]

But he's a hero and a great man to people on your side.
[/quote


Sure.  And your "side' and I quote:  "Straight Outta Uranium".  We all know why we're here.  Cut the nonsense. 

[The Sultan]

I don't give a flying f if they or Iran have weapons or nukes as deep as the Mariana Trench.  The attacks in Israel and Ukraine would never have taken place and Putin and the Mullahs would be fertilizer.  And the next in line if they pull the same bullcrap?  Batter up.  None of this should havd ever happened and rational people know why we are at this point.

Dude you are the least rational person here.

[Uncle Rico]

Dude you are the least rational person here.

War crimes, dead Americans and a generation of new terrorists seems pretty rational

[MuggsyB]

War crimes, dead Americans and a generation of new terrorists seems pretty rational

.

Both of you aren't seeing things clearly. 

[Uncle Rico]

.

Both of you aren't seeing things clearly. 

Yes, I am.  War crimes, dead Americans and a new generation of terrorists.

[MuggsyB]

Yes, I am.  War crimes, dead Americans and a new generation of terrorists.

You havd zero foresight.  New Terrorists?  Batter up. 

[Uncle Rico]

You havd zero foresight.  New Terrorists?  Batter up. 

More war crimes and dead Americans.  Batter up. 

It would be a lot simpler to ban religion.

[MuggsyB]

More war crimes and dead Americans.  Batter up. 

It would be a lot simpler to ban religion.

You're forgiven, but you drivel silly talking points and aren't seeing things clearly at all.  Wake up and deal with the reality of a dangerous world. 

[Uncle Rico]

You're forgiven, but you drivel silly talking points and aren't seeing things clearly at all.  Wake up and deal with the reality of a dangerous world. 

No, I see things quite clearly.  The mess in the Middle East was/is made by the empires of the world sticking their noses in and fixing things and mandating their policies on a people of which they are not.

Every decision by America with regard to the Middle East has been wrong, failed and ultimately leads to more death and destruction.  All cuz' oil.

But yes, America doesn't have the five point plan of a person all for the wanton destruction of people and places without regard for international law.

[tower912]

Muggsy to my ignore list for a while. 

[MuggsyB]

No, I see things quite clearly.  The mess in the Middle East was/is made by the empires of the world sticking their noses in and fixing things and mandating their policies on a people of which they are not.

Every decision by America with regard to the Middle East has been wrong, failed and ultimately leads to more death and destruction.  All cuz' oil.

But yes, America doesn't have the five point plan of a person all for the wanton destruction of people and places without regard for international law.

We've made very poor decisions.  Did you call Assad a war criminal while he was gassing his own people? I might have missed that.  There's another scumbag who should be deep into the ground.  International law is a euphemism for Israel can't defend themselves. 

[Shaka Shart]

Netanyahu is not targeting children in Gaza, and what you're saying is factually incorrect.  Hamas, Hezbollah, Islamic Jihad, etc, etc, is the reason things are fked up.  Israel isn't the problem regardless of Netanyahu's issues.  Iranian leadership and their proxies is the problem.   

https://on.ft.com/4kMZ2EB

"45 dead in Latest shooting of Gazans seeking food"

[Uncle Rico]

We've made very poor decisions.  Did you call Assad a war criminal while he was gassing his own people? I might have missed that.  There's another scumbag who should be deep into the ground.  International law is a euphemism for Israel can't defend themselves. 

Assad is a war criminal.  Doesn't mean America should commit war crimes.  I guess since I didn't start a thread on Muscoop calling him a war criminal, I don't think he's a war criminal. 

But I suppose your five point plan you won't share is what will bring peace to the Middle East that centuries of Europeans couldn't.

[Pakuni]

https://x.com/TheDailyShow/status/1935048445984665786

[MuggsyB]

Assad is a war criminal.  Doesn't mean America should commit war crimes.  I guess since I didn't start a thread on Muscoop calling him a war criminal, I don't think he's a war criminal. 

But I suppose your five point plan you won't share is what will bring peace to the Middle East that centuries of Europeans couldn't.

How many people have died in Ukraine, Russia, Gaza, and Israel?  My opinion is the 5 Point Plan would have saved tons of lives if we acted immediately.  I understand that many people disagree, but that's fine.

[Uncle Rico]

How many people have died in Ukraine, Russia, Gaza, and Israel?  My opinion is the 5 Point Plan would have saved tons of lives if we acted immediately.  I understand that people disagree but that's fine.

Then share your five point plan, otherwise it's worthless, pointless and ridiculous