How did the offense perform vs. your expectations?

[Jay Bee]

Back in early August, I shared some thoughts/projections on the team's offensive outlook for 2024-25. Just took a look back now as the season is almost complete.. I guess my biggest thing is it's a bummer we shot like crap from 3.

https://www.muscoop.com/index.php?topic=66301.msg1671605#msg1671605

Blue highlights are excerpts from my August 2024 post.

We finished #45 in raw offensive efficiency and #21 in KenPom offensive AE. I expect a drop in OE this season and perhaps the only reasonable path to improve would be insane (top 10 nationally) 3-point shooting.

Over the course of the season, I think our offense is down. It won't be bad – it'll be good. But, not flirting with elite. I'd probably be happy with something in the mid-30's, but would project more in the ballpark of the mid-40's.


As of now, we sit at #63 for raw OE and #35 in KenPom Adj OE. The only reasonable path to improve (insane 3-point shooting) didn't happen. That said, the turnover rate and OR% were both a bit stronger than expected, helping us to that mid-30's range that I said I'd be happy with.
Certainly the way we got there wasn't as pleasant – as we saw our Adj OE ranking dip as the year went on. But, overall this was a solid outcome vs. where I had them pegged (pawz).

FT rate – We were bad (#344). Gone is our top guy, Oso, who was at 42.9%. Tyler and his 26.8% are gone. Kam and Jop have room to improve (career highs of 16.2% and 20.2%, respectively, last season), but  it's not enough. Chase, Zaide, Damarius... all guys who could (1) get more time and (2) get to the line a healthy amount.

Nonetheless, if we're giving big minutes to Kam, Jop, and Ben.. we're just not going to be a good FT rate team.


We are at #346 this season compared with #344 a year ago. In line with expectations. Jop showed improvement, but this team was just never going to be a good FT rate team.

OR% - We were weak at #285 nationally.  Oso easily led the way with his 9.4%. I do think Royce is a guy who can do well on the o-boards immediately, and perhaps Ben can get near Oso...  but here again, we are going to be a weak OR% team.

Royce at 8.0% was solid, but it was the team effort led by Stevie (7.0%) that enabled us to get to #179. Still probably deserves a 'weak' description with the #36 average height and #80 effective height team in the nation, but a bit better than I was projecting. Group effort, 'good job' vs. how the team was built. Wasn't ever going to be good, but could have been a lot worse.

TO% - Strong #30 ranking last year, turning it over at a rate of just 14.3%. Frankly, everyone was good... but when I look at what Kam will likely be doing this year, I'm not expecting a repeat of his excellent 10.7% rate. Not that I think it'll explode – just don't see it as repeatable.

We can still be a good team at TO%, but I have trouble projecting a scenario where we'll show marked improvement.


Kam finished at 11.1%, only slightly higher than last year's 10.7%. Based on how he was used, very pleased with that result. As a team, ranked #8 at 13.6%. Really strong performance in this factor for the team. Excellent. Downside is it's big area of concern for me as we look ahead to 2025-26. #COLE

eFG% - We're down to the most important factor as our only hope. We were great last season – 55.0%, good for #21 in the nation.. So, the problem is there isn't a ton of room to move up. A bigger problem is our 2FG% of 56.6% (#13).

Gone is Oso and his 58.0% 2FG%. Sure, Ben was at 75.8%, but those were limited attempts and a lot of dunks. Can he be a 60% guy? Certainly.

Stevie Mitchell's 63.1% would be tough to repeat. Kam's 59.6% 2FG% was great, and it's certainly possible he could wind up with something similar this year... but can't project dramatic improvement. Chase (47.6%) and the frosh may find a way to get it done... and Jop can be quite a bit better than his 50.0%.. but overall I'm not banking on improvement in 2FG% and expect it to be down a bit.
So, now we're onto 3FG%. We finished at a solid 35.2% for the season, including the NC State debacle caused by fraudulently-filled basketballs and crap rims. That was good for #106 in the country.

Once you're into the 37.2% range (a 2.0% improvement), you're sitting at about #20 nationally. If we dropped our 2FG% by 2.0% and improved 3FG% by 2.0% with last year's attempt mix, our eFG% would decline by 0.1%.

Welp. The 2FG% dropped to 54.7% from 56.6%, a 190 bps decline. Not unexpected. Ben's 75.8% turned into.. 60.0% exactly, with few attempts. Stevie's 63.1% fell to 52.1%. Kam's 59.6% with a similar 58.6% was solid, but still down. Chase improved on the 47.6% to 53.7% and JoLp grew his 50.0% to 55.0%. 2FG% looked a lot like what was projected both on a team and individual basis.

That brings us to 3FG%. It stunk. Kam and Jop both struggled for the season. Royce was a willing chucker, but didn't hit much.  And that sealed it.

With the strong TO% and not awful OR%, we had a chance to be a better OE team.. but the 3's did us in. I certainly did not project the drop we saw and am not going to pin that on the coaching staff.. the reality is our Shot Quality says we could have been better.. maybe just an unlucky shooting year, hey?

We still finished the regular season record I projected (one more win in nonconf; one less in conf) and OE – while it dropped during the year – was in a solid/happy place for me vs. preseason projections. We were close, and I don't mind the roster construction we came into the year with at all. We could have been great.

Pray.

[Galway Eagle]

I expected a 6 seed. Got my hopes way too high early in the year.

All in all they just missed my expectations but not by much

[Vander Blue Man Group]

Good post - thanks for sharing. 

If you do the same thing for the 25-26 team this summer I fear it's going to cause a lot of anxiety with our normally level-headed audience here. 

[Hards Alumni]

"C'mon man, we lost TKO and Oso. Fringe Top-25. 6-9 seed. Win our first round game."

Was my vote back in October, so the team under performed my expectations by not winning our first round game.

[MuMark]

The ft rate has been poor in all of Shaka's years here.......it could be just a function of the players we've had.....or maybe our offense( although we certainly have attacked the rim quite a bit....especially in the Kolek/ Oso years) ?

Either way I hope Shaka and staff identify this as an area that needs to improve going forward......

[THRILLHO]

The ft rate has been poor in all of Shaka's years here.......it could be just a function of the players we've had.....or maybe our offense( although we certainly have attacked the rim quite a bit....especially in the Kolek/ Oso years) ?

Either way I hope Shaka and staff identify this as an area that needs to improve going forward......

This has got to be bait

[tower912]

Ft rate is number of attempts, not percentage made.  So, seek out contact when driving instead of trying to avoid it.

[SonOfWarrior]

The offensive movement was terrible. Terrible picks being set. Terrible movement off any picks being set. Stagnant movement off of the ball. Guarding Marquette was very easy. Let them shoot and miss. They missed having a few big bodies in order to keep the paint honest.

[tower912]

No, they missed having the best passing college big man in some time as well as a pass first all American PG vs a shoot first all American PG who lost his shot.

[WolfganghisKhan]

I like the idea of our offense, but we don't have the personnel for it.

Also like golf,  you need to have every club in the bag. Mid range shots may be inefficient over the course of a season, however you still need to be able to utilize it when needed.

[tower912]

But if a 3 wood is inefficient as hell, take it out of the bag.

[Vander Blue Man Group]

Also like golf,  you need to have every club in the bag. Mid range shots may be inefficient over the course of a season, however you still need to be able to utilize it when needed.

No.

[BM1090]

No.

I'm with WG here. You have to have a guy or two that is capable of making shots from 12-18 feet. Preferably a guard. Oso and Kolek were good in that 12-15 foot range and it opened up the offense. You don't have to take them often or even more than once or twice per game, but the opponent at least has to guard you there. This year, only Jop could make those shots so teams could get by a lot easier.

TK's game winner over Kalk at CU and big shot against Colorado come to mind. If you're unwilling to take those shots you're a lot easier to guard.

Having a big that's a lob threat to keep the center closer to the rim to open up those floaters would help too. We didn't have that this year.

[Vander Blue Man Group]

I'm with WG here. You have to have a guy or two that is capable of making shots from 12-18 feet. Preferably a guard. Oso and Kolek were good in that 12-15 foot range and it opened up the offense. You don't have to take them often or even more than once or twice per game, but the opponent at least has to guard you there. This year, only Jop could make those shots so teams could get by a lot easier.

TK's game winner over Kalk at CU and big shot against Colorado come to mind. If you're unwilling to take those shots you're a lot easier to guard.

Having a big that's a lob threat to keep the center closer to the rim to open up those floaters would help too. We didn't have that this year.

Oso's push shot in the lane was not a midrange shot.  I don't consider anything in the paint a midrange shot. 

Our offense struggled because our two-highest volume 3-point shooters shot well under their career averages. 

[Johnny B]

Why is this board so hell bent on never ever ever taking a mid range? some players excel with it. Not our team this year I know. Expand the arsenal? Expand your scoring options? Am I missing the analytics suggesting taking a mid range in any situation is bad?

[BM1090]

Oso's push shot in the lane was not a midrange shot.  I don't consider anything in the paint a midrange shot. 

Our offense struggled because our two-highest volume 3-point shooters shot well under their career averages. 

That's certainly a huge part of it. If Kam and Jop hit their career averages this discussion looks different. But Oso's push shot did keep defenses honest. They always guarded him there, which opened up more at the hoop and the three point line. You don't have to take them, you just have to be a threat to take them. Oso took those floaters from the wide post too. If you have to guard those, the geometry changes. This year, teams didn't have to guard them much.

[tower912]

I am going to go out on a limb and say MU sees more mid-range shots next year.  Not due to some huge change in offensive philosophy, but due to Sean being 5'10 and getting crushed going all of the way to the rim all of the time.   

[Nukem2]

I am going to go out on a limb and say MU sees more mid-range shots next year.  Not due to some huge change in offensive philosophy, but due to Sean being 5'10 and getting crushed going all of the way to the rim all of the time.   

Certainly should develop a floater.

[WolfganghisKhan]

Why is this board so hell bent on never ever ever taking a mid range? some players excel with it. Not our team this year I know. Expand the arsenal? Expand your scoring options? Am I missing the analytics suggesting taking a mid range in any situation is bad?

Because they think basketball games are won on a spreadsheet thus that stupid shot quality W/L record getting posted here after every loss.

[MuMark]

Because they think basketball games are won on a spreadsheet thus that stupid shot quality W/L record getting posted here after every loss.

You do understand that the best coaches in the world believe in taking high quality shots and look at the same data that people talk about here........right?

Shot quality is not some fringe idea........it's main stream.......

With that being said I agree with BM......it helps to have guys capable of making mid range shots from time to time......because you aren't always going to be able to get layups, dunks or open 3s.

Options are good.

[Uncle Rico]

You do understand that the best coaches in the world believe in taking high quality shots and look at the same data that people talk about here........right?

Shot quality is not some fringe idea........it's main stream.......

With that being said I agree with BM......it helps to have guys capable of making mid range shots from time to time......because you aren't always going to be able to get layups, dunks or open 3s.

Options are good.

I'm convinced most people here don't actually watch any other basketball than Marquette which makes them clueless about how the game is played in this era and why and just blame nerds

[WolfganghisKhan]

I'm convinced most people here don't actually watch any other basketball than Marquette which makes them clueless about how the game is played in this era and why and just blame nerds

Id say it's the opposite. We had people in here thinking Ben Gold is a legit NBA player and Caedin Hamilton would play a legit role this year.

We run a Moreyball offense with people who can't shoot 3s. Genius level offense.

[Hards Alumni]

Why is this board so hell bent on never ever ever taking a mid range? some players excel with it. Not our team this year I know. Expand the arsenal? Expand your scoring options? Am I missing the analytics suggesting taking a mid range in any situation is bad?

Math is hard for some people.  Yourself included, I guess.

[Uncle Rico]

Id say it's the opposite. We had people in here thinking Ben Gold is a legit NBA player and Caedin Hamilton would play a legit role this year.

We run a Moreyball offense with people who can't shoot 3s. Genius level offense.

I guess you're right.  Watching the highest scoring levels of college basketball in years with an offense Marquette is running certainly proves Marquette wrong for running it.  Marquette almost certainly would still be playing had they mixed in more mid-range.

Where's Lenny to tell me no one brings up mid-range?

And you also clearly didn't read what JB wrote

[tower912]

Id say it's the opposite. We had people in here thinking Ben Gold is a legit NBA player and Caedin Hamilton would play a legit role this year.

I still think Gold plays in the NBA.  Shaka was one of those who thought Caedin would play a legit role this year.  Said so about a year ago when he said Caedin could have helped the 23-24 team.