[Cracked Sidewalks] Cracketology: 1-Seeds and Mormons

[brewcity77]

Today we dig into the unprecedented strength at the top of the bracket, then dig a bit deeper to look at how difficult BYU and their no-Sundays restriction will be to place into the field as they continue to rise up the S-curve.

1-Seeds and Mormons

[GoldenEagles03]

Looking like we could possibly end up in the same pod as Kentucky again.

If we slide up to a 6, those 3 seeds are all common opponents aside from Kentucky.

Seems like somehow, some way, we always end up around the Wildcats.

[Newsdreams]

Looking like we could possibly end up in the same pod as Kentucky again.

If we slide up to a 6, those 3 seeds are all common opponents aside from Kentucky.

Seems like somehow, some way, we always end up around the Wildcats.

MU owns them in NCAAT

[MU90620]

Quick question for you. At the bracket reveal, it was stated that Marquette was a whisker away from a 4 seed. Since that time, they have beaten Seton Hall convincingly and lost at Villanova. Not a great loss, but a road conference game against a md level opponent. Dropping from the top 5 to a 7 seems like a steep punishment for that. I realize it is a fluid situation and other teams won big games as well, but that is a dramatic drop for one loss. Just looking for answers from someone that knows a heck of a lot more about this than me. Thanks

[brewcity77]

Quick question for you. At the bracket reveal, it was stated that Marquette was a whisker away from a 4 seed. Since that time, they have beaten Seton Hall convincingly and lost at Villanova. Not a great loss, but a road conference game against a md level opponent. Dropping from the top 5 to a 7 seems like a steep punishment for that. I realize it is a fluid situation and other teams won big games as well, but that is a dramatic drop for one loss. Just looking for answers from someone that knows a heck of a lot more about this than me. Thanks

It's really, really tight from the bottom of the 4s to the top of the 7s. One thing we learned at the reveal was resume metrics impacted seeding more than predictives, and the 6-seeds (Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Oregon, Louisville) all have better resume averages than Marquette.

Resume average was the main thing propping Marquette up because the predictives have always lagged, so falling behind in their previous strength hurt them more proportionally.

That said, I may be a little low on Marquette. I've seen them from the last 5 to the first 7 over the past 48 hours, and that's only a range of 20-25 in terms of exact seed, so it isn't as big a difference as it might initially seem.

[BrewCity83]

It's clear - if we want a good seed we need a strong finish.

[CountryRoads]

Were we screwed in 2012 by the BYU thing?

We were a 10 (3 seed) on the S Curve and BYU was a 48. Shouldn't they have been a 12 seed? Instead they dropped to a 14 and played us.

You play all season to earn a 3 seed so you should play an actual 14 seed. Nonsense. Thankfully we blew them out anyway.

https://www.sbnation.com/2012-ncaa-tournament/2012/3/11/2863068/ncaa-bracket-2012-overall-seeds/in/2626664?_gl=1*1lwxr7h*_ga*NzM2NjAzNjUzLjE3NDA1MDU5NTM.*_ga_2M5GYNY1YS*MTc0MDUwNTk1Mi4xLjAuMTc0MDUwNTk1Mi42MC4wLjA.

Edit to add: our second round game was in Louisville against Murray State (6 seed), so the committee gave us a road game the next round as well. People like to joke about how "the committee hates Marquette" but find me a worse draw than that after earning a 10 on the S Curve. Wow

[brewcity77]

Were we screwed in 2012 by the BYU thing?

We were a 10 (3 seed) on the S Curve and BYU was a 48. Shouldn't they have been a 12 seed? Instead they dropped to a 14 and played us.

You play all season to earn a 3 seed so you should play an actual 14 seed. Nonsense. Thankfully we blew them out anyway.

https://www.sbnation.com/2012-ncaa-tournament/2012/3/11/2863068/ncaa-bracket-2012-overall-seeds/in/2626664?_gl=1*1lwxr7h*_ga*NzM2NjAzNjUzLjE3NDA1MDU5NTM.*_ga_2M5GYNY1YS*MTc0MDUwNTk1Mi4xLjAuMTc0MDUwNTk1Mi42MC4wLjA.

BYU was moved down so they could be in both a Thursday/Saturday pod and region.

[GoldenEagles03]

Brew,

Butler is 77 in the net which makes them a Q2 road win and a Q3 home win. If they get up to 75 or better it is becomes Q1 and Q2 wins.

That's a huge deal right? Or not really?

[brewcity77]

It is certainly helpful, essentially turning a Q3 win into Q1 (because there's a Q2 win in either scenario) but it's still one data point this late in the season. More than anything, it shows a flaw in the quadrant system.

[Hojames]

Can MU play in a Fri/Sun pod even though the pod we host is Fri/Sun?

[We R Final Four]

Can MU play in a Fri/Sun pod even though the pod we host is Fri/Sun?

In short, they can but probably won't.

[wisblue]

With all of the other seeding and placement challenges presented by the large number of teams from the top 2 or 3 conferences claiming high seeds, the probability of MU playing on Friday is higher than it might be otherwise.

A lot also depends on what seed MU gets and what locations are hosting the corresponding protected seeds. For example, if MU is a 6 seed they would be in a pod with a 3 seed. If 2 of the 3 seeds are placed in Milwaukee, and the other 2 are in Cleveland, MU would have to be placed in Cleveland.

Because most of the protected seeds are located in the south, Midwest, and east, the first round locations in those areas are going to fill up first with higher seeds.

The 4 and 5 seeds might be relegated to Denver and Seattle.

[Silkk the Shaka]

Looking like we could possibly end up in the same pod as Kentucky again.

If we slide up to a 6, those 3 seeds are all common opponents aside from Kentucky.

Seems like somehow, some way, we always end up around the Wildcats.

[wisblue]

Were we screwed in 2012 by the BYU thing?

We were a 10 (3 seed) on the S Curve and BYU was a 48. Shouldn't they have been a 12 seed? Instead they dropped to a 14 and played us.

You play all season to earn a 3 seed so you should play an actual 14 seed. Nonsense. Thankfully we blew them out anyway.

https://www.sbnation.com/2012-ncaa-tournament/2012/3/11/2863068/ncaa-bracket-2012-overall-seeds/in/2626664?_gl=1*1lwxr7h*_ga*NzM2NjAzNjUzLjE3NDA1MDU5NTM.*_ga_2M5GYNY1YS*MTc0MDUwNTk1Mi4xLjAuMTc0MDUwNTk1Mi42MC4wLjA.

Edit to add: our second round game was in Louisville against Murray State (6 seed), so the committee gave us a road game the next round as well. People like to joke about how "the committee hates Marquette" but find me a worse draw than that after earning a 10 on the S Curve. Wow

BYU had to play in Dayton two nights earlier, so less time to recover and prepare than a team would usually have. And, as you note, MU went on to pummel BYU, so it's hard to say MU got screwed.

I was in Louisville that weekend and the Murray State game was an abomination given that protected seeds are not supposed to be put at a home crowd disadvantage. Between the fans from nearby Murray State and the Kentucky fans cheering for the local underdog that was a home crowd disadvantage similar to what 3 seed Pitt had when they played 6 seed Wisconsin at the BC in 2004.

Fortunately the 3 seeds pulled out tough wins in both cases.