Way too early 25-26 discussion

[Its DJOver]

It's an intentionally misleading stat. Sarcasm or not, posting it was always going to result is being called out.

[GoldenEagles03]

I remember that.  I saw it on the internet.

Hahaha. Good point.

[brewcity77]

https://x.com/CBKReport/status/1894772676461470049?t=68YBZJEPUhP1Sf-t3KmkDQ&s=19

I'm terrified for next year. We may be elite and not sure how we scoopers will handle it.

Two thoughts...

-Too bad Shaka couldn't flip Tamar Bates to Marquette along with Jop, Itejere, and Ellis.
-Did we land the wrong guy from Worcester Academy? Todd Brogna was high school teammates with Tre Norman.

[jfp61]

Zaide Lowery was +1 last night in a game we won by 30. And our offense was negativly impacted with him on the court.

I am happy he has finally come to life this season. I am happy he is shooting the cover off the ball.

But this feels like Matt Heldt, Greg Elliot, and if we are lucky a freshman year Chase Ross.

Feels like he is getting the praise that should be given to Royce.

[Its DJOver]

Zaide Lowery was +1 last night in a game we won by 30. And our offense was negativly impacted with him on the court.

I am happy he has finally come to life this season. I am happy he is shooting the cover off the ball.

But this feels like Matt Heldt, Greg Elliot, and if we are lucky a freshman year Chase Ross.

Feels like he is getting the praise that should be given to Royce.

1. +/- is a terrible stat.
2. Please show your work as to how "our offense was negatively impacted with him on the court".

[wadesworld]

You're always trying to exaggerate what people post by adding your own little twist so you can use it later.

Pretty soon it'll be "Remember when GE03 said Zaide was an All American?"

You posted a Tweet showing Zaide as one of a very few college players who are 50/40/90 guys and your comment was that you were "terrified" that we "might be elite" next year.  You WAY overreacted to a stat about a little used backup for us this year.

[Juan Anderson's Mixtape]

Zaide Lowery was +1 last night in a game we won by 30. And our offense was negativly impacted with him on the court.

I am happy he has finally come to life this season. I am happy he is shooting the cover off the ball.

But this feels like Matt Heldt, Greg Elliot, and if we are lucky a freshman year Chase Ross.

Feels like he is getting the praise that should be given to Royce.

There's enough praise to go around.  Royce has been very good this year. The catch-all advanced stats really like him.

Evan Miya ranks Royce 36th in the BE for BPR (for reference Gold is 31st). That's good for 6th on the team.

Not only is Royce 6th on the team in BPR, but he's also 6th in RAPM (see the thread posted by Paint Touches.)

Interestingly, BPR ranks Tre Norman ahead of Zaide Lowery, but RAPM favors Zaide. But Zaide's shooting and athleticism give him strengths that indicate loads of potential.

And I think Zaide is getting more praise than Royce lately because Zaide's growth curve has been more noticeable this season.  Royce showed flashes early in the season vs Central Michigan, Maryland, and Iowa State. His play is a continuation of that. But Zaide has really come on strong the last few weeks. That newness is what people tend to talk about.

[jfp61]

1. +/- is a terrible stat.
2. Please show your work as to how "our offense was negatively impacted with him on the court".

Well if you want the simple work.

Zaide was +1 for the game.

And the rest of the team was +29 in the 23 minutes where he wasn't on the court.

[Its DJOver]

Well if you want the simple work.

Zaide was +1 for the game.

And the rest of the team was +29 in the 23 minutes where he wasn't on the court.

So no evidence as to how "our offense was negatively affected with him on the court"?

You can repeat your bad stats as much as you want, it doesn't make them good stats.

[jfp61]

So no evidence as to how "our offense was negatively affected with him on the court"?

You can repeat your bad stats as much as you want, it doesn't make them good stats.

When Zaide was on the court Marquette scored 26 points in 17 minutes and 41 seconds.

When Zaide was off the court Marquette scored 56 points in 23 minutes and 19 seconds.

Good enough for you yet?

[Its DJOver]

When Zaide was on the court Marquette scored 26 points in 17 minutes and 41 seconds.

When Zaide was off the court Marquette scored 56 points in 23 minutes and 19 seconds.

Good enough for you yet?

That's an incredibly dumb way to look at the game, but if it helps you sleep at night knowing you're good at pulling out bad statistics, good for you.

[JTJ3]

Single game +/- is mostly useless, there are way too many variables that affect it within a game.

+/- over the course of a month or even a full season is much more useful in determining overall impact on the floor.

[FairWeatherEagle]

We will be good. I see some breakout play from Parham and others who will be the main guys now.

We will be a tough out. I see 4th, maybe 3rd. Depends on other teams and the league in general. Surprise players...

[Zog from Margo]

Single game +/- is mostly useless, there are way too many variables that affect it within a game.

+/- over the course of a month or even a full season is much more useful in determining overall impact on the floor.

Zaide's OBPM and DBPM for the season are higher than Parham's. Zaide has the best DRB% on the team. This is in addition to being the best shooter on the team in terms of FG%, 3pt%, and FT%. He trails only Stevie and Ross in Steal%. Zaide also often covers the opponent's best perimeter player. I understand the excitement about Parham, but Zaide is improving and has a very high athletic ceiling. https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/schools/marquette/men/2025.html

[Its DJOver]

I love that we're predicting league placement when we have no idea what the other teams rosters will be like. Will the next St. Johns NIL check clear? Will Nova bring in an actual coach? How will Miller's recruitment go now that the extra Covid eligibility is (almost) over? Does Sorber leave? Probably save to assume McNeely's gone, but will the next crop of highly ranked UConn Freshman be as good? Just because we largely know what we'll look like (Shaka might still surprise us with that last scholly), does not mean that the rest of the league will stack up the same next year.

[jfp61]

Zaide's OBPM and DBPM for the season are higher than Parham's. Zaide has the best DRB% on the team. This is in addition to being the best shooter on the team in terms of FG%, 3pt%, and FT%. He trails only Stevie and Ross in Steal%. Zaide also often covers the opponent's best perimeter player. I understand the excitement about Parham, but Zaide is improving and has a very high athletic ceiling. https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/schools/marquette/men/2025.html

Box scores are fun..

I prefer marquette to be playing better when a player is on the court.

[jfp61]

That's an incredibly dumb way to look at the game, but if it helps you sleep at night knowing you're good at pulling out bad statistics, good for you.

I am using single game stats when I am talking about one game. Sorry

[The Sultan]

I am using single game stats when I am talking about one game. Sorry

But then you projected it to be larger than one game...

But this feels like Matt Heldt, Greg Elliot, and if we are lucky a freshman year Chase Ross.

Feels like he is getting the praise that should be given to Royce.

People are (correctly) pointing out to you that using +/- from one game to determine a player's overall value is really a poor use of statistics.

[Zog from Margo]

Box scores are fun..

I prefer marquette to be playing better when a player is on the court.

For the season, MU is playing better with Lowery on the floor than Parham. What's your point?

[jfp61]

For the season, MU is playing better with Lowery on the floor than Parham. What's your point?

That is not true

Zaide Lowery On. Adjusted Off Eff is 112.2.Adjusted Def Eff 95.7.

Royce Parham On. Adjusted Off Eff is 119.3. Adjusted Def Eff is 91.0

[jfp61]

But then you projected it to be larger than one game...

People are (correctly) pointing out to you that using +/- from one game to determine a player's overall value is really a poor use of statistics.

Because he is comparable to Heldt, Elliot, and Freshman year Chase Ross. His Box Score impact is greater than his impact on the team is.

[jfp61]

Zaide's OBPM and DBPM for the season are higher than Parham's. Zaide has the best DRB% on the team. This is in addition to being the best shooter on the team in terms of FG%, 3pt%, and FT%. He trails only Stevie and Ross in Steal%. Zaide also often covers the opponent's best perimeter player. I understand the excitement about Parham, but Zaide is improving and has a very high athletic ceiling. https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/schools/marquette/men/2025.html

This is Boxscore Impact. Which Zaides is high because he doesn't make mistakes in the box score.

Much like Matt Heldt, Greg Elliot, and Freshman year Chase Ross.

Marquette plays better with parham on the court then it does with any other bench player on the court.

There are many reason for this. But one of the main ones is parham is very very good. And the rest of the bench is kinda good.

people think zaide is better than he is, because he shoots lights out on 12% usage.

[The Sultan]

Because he is comparable to Heldt, Elliot, and Freshman year Chase Ross. His Box Score impact is greater than his impact on the team is.

I have no idea what this even means. Isn't +/- also a stat on a box score???

[MuMark]

Listen I like Royce........I also like Zaide.....I'm not sure why people need to get into these tiffs over two,young guys that most of us are excited about.

As far as the plus minus......it certainly helps Royce that he is only coming in for Jop or Ben.....while Zaide is replacing Stevie, Chase or even at times Kam(when Chase moves to be the point).

Much easier to make a positive impact when you are playing the vast majority of your minutes with the 3 best players on the team.

Ps I really liked the toughness that Royce played with last night........he's going to be a good one.

[jfp61]

I have no idea what this even means. Isn't +/- also a stat on a box score???

OBPM and DBPM are two stats that meassure your estimated +/- based on your box score when on the court. It assigns the results of the game based on the box score of a player.

So a player who takes a few shots but makes them all will have a high OBPM. And the same goes for defense. When you have steals, blocks, or defensive boards, and the team plays good defense it goes back and attributes it to your stats.

Matt Heldt, some years of Greg Elliot, and freshman year Chase Ross are three examples of players who had "good box scores" more than they did "good games". Low usage rates, made the shots they took.

HOWEVER. This is not +/-. Or how the team preforms when you are in the game. +/- is a literal +/- when a player is on the court.

So Zaide having great OBPM and DBPM, and having a season long +/- or +45. Lower than Parham's +138. And Normans +71.  Is another example of a Heldt and Elliot, type of player.