[Cracked Sidewalks] Cracketology: What's a Protected Seed Worth?

[brewcity77]

Since 2012, the NCAA has released their S-Curve, which details exactly where each team fell in their rankings. Today, a week before the Selection Committee releases their initial Top-16, we go through each of the exact seed positions to see the successes, failures, and average expectations of each exact seed from 1 to 16, while also updating our own 2025 S-Curve and bracket.

Cracketology: What's a Protected Seed Worth?

[FairWeatherEagle]

Good article. Sums up data I would wonder about.

I like the table. Color coding helped see the flow...and what i'd expect.

Was the 3 final fours for the Exact16s a typo (2 not 3?) or did I miss something? My eyes were drawn to that 3.

In any case there's hope for a 4 seed...which is where I think MU ends up.

I also wonder about something you can't quantify easily. Is the success of higher seeds simply because they are better teams or how much does the better seed (ostensibly playing lesser teams earlier) help them nudge higher in the chart.

Anyway, good article for game day speculation. Thanks

[brewcity77]

Damn, might've been a typo. Will have to double check. I don't have my raw data with me today, but there's definitely a typo in there.

Looking at it, one of the #16 results is not on the grid. All the seed results should total 12, #16 only totals 11. I'll check the results when I get a look at that spreadsheet again.

[FairWeatherEagle]

Damn, might've been a typo. Will have to double check. I don't have my raw data with me today, but there's definitely a typo in there.

Looking at it, one of the #16 results is not on the grid. All the seed results should total 12, #16 only totals 11. I'll check the results when I get a look at that spreadsheet again.

Don't sweat it. The quality of your article(s) definitely outweighs something small like that. 💯

[Badgerhater]

Winning is better than losing.

[DoctorV]

Will Marquette hear its name in the mid-season bracket reveal?

Bit of intrigue here with the early Feb fade.

[PointWarrior]

Protected seed is a pipe dream at this point. 

[wadesworld]

Protected seed is a pipe dream at this point. 

If you don't pay attention to college basketball this is accurate.

[rocky_warrior]

They pay a bit more attention to statistics than poll voters.  It's a bit dicey.

[Uncle Rico]

If you don't pay attention to college basketball this is accurate.

We're not even making the tournament.  The patented Shaka February fade is underway.  Oklahoma is 1-2 in February.  Marquette is 0-3.  That's pure math. 

[rocky_warrior]

We're not even making the tournament.  The patented Shaka February fade is underway.  Oklahoma is 1-2 in February.  Marquette is 0-3.  That's pure math. 

Everyone agrees, I mean, every idiot agrees.

[Uncle Rico]

Everyone agrees, I mean, every idiot agrees.

The Wingdings Paradox

[rocky_warrior]

The Wingdings Paradox

I think you don't understand Willy.  You should actually try having a discussion as opposed to jumping to ricoisms.

[PointWarrior]

If you don't pay attention to college basketball this is accurate.

Help me out - how many protected seeds finished 4th or lower in their conference? 

[wadesworld]

Help me out - how many protected seeds finished 4th or lower in their conference? 

Alabama finished 5th in their league last year and was a 4. Kentucky finished 4th and was a 3 last year. Kansas finished 6th in the Big 12 last year and was a 4 seed.

You realize conference standings have nothing to do with NCAA Tournament seed, right? Seton Hall finished 13-7 in the BE last year, 1 game behind Creighton and Marquette. Creighton was a 3 seed and Marquette was a 2 seed. Seton Hall missed the Tournament.

[Uncle Rico]

Alabama finished 5th in their league last year and was a 4. Kentucky finished 4th and was a 3 last year. Kansas finished 6th in the Big 12 last year and was a 4 seed.

You realize conference standings have nothing to do with NCAA Tournament seed, right? Seton Hall finished 13-7 in the BE last year, 1 game behind Creighton and Marquette. Creighton was a 3 seed and Marquette was a 2 seed. Seton Hall missed the Tournament.

Facts don't care about your feelings

[brewcity77]

Will Marquette hear its name in the mid-season bracket reveal?

Bit of intrigue here with the early Feb fade.

Going to dig into that this week. Typically the reveal only includes games through Sunday or Monday, so my guess is no matter what happens Tuesday that won't impact the reveal.

Protected seed is a pipe dream at this point. 

If they continue as they have been playing, probably so. But if they go 5-2 or 6-1 (the most likely outcomes) and are playing on Friday in the Garden, we likely will be in the 3-4 mix.

[DoctorV]

Looking at the data it seems to me that Marquette has gone from a solid 2 seed to a borderline 4/5 seed in the last week.

Unfortunate, but the hard truth. That's kind of how it goes when you lose 3 in a row.
You can say well yea but there are 3 great teams, tournament teams, with 2 on the road...

Beyond the losses, the metrics have seen a rough tumble.
MU is down to 24 in NET, 22 in KenPom. Quite the fall.
A game like yesterdays, where you're within 3 with under 2 minutes but lose by 10 really affects you metrically.
It sucks to lose, but the computers don't view the end result as a wash, which it would've been had you have lost by 3.
Being down 1 at StJ with 3 left and losing by 6, etc etc.

So, it's been a bit of a perfect storm of ugly wins and biggest spread losses than you'd like, even to good teams, and the metrics and seed will reflect it.

The WAB is nice, SOS nice, Q1+2 good so that carries some weight.
For Marquettes sake hopefully the WAB is weighed heavily.

I will say that what the reveal shows could mean a lot for Marquette- looking at the schedule you've got only 2 games left versus tourney teams- UConn and StJ in March- and maybe 1-2 more in NYC.
So if MU isn't in the top 4 lines it'll have to get some more big wins, probably a few more against BE tourney teams, to slide back in without fumbling the next 5, which is no guarantee.

As things stand, a 3 seed would be an incredible spot to land imo so that should be the new goal. Get healthy, turn the confidence around by beating up on some bottom feeders, and get a big psyche dub at UConn or v StJ heading into MSG. Ride that to a trip to the BET final and hope to get a 3 seed to have an easier ride than the 4-6 seeds.
A team as talented as Marquette, that rode a high as high as it did earlier in the season but has been bitten by hard times and has a chip on its shoulder is a dangerous March Madness team, but much more dangerous if it's a 3 seed than if it's a 5-6 seed.

It would take a lot of work to get back on the 3 line, probably a 6-1 finish with a BET win or loss in the final, but it's still achievable.
Sucks that the BE Championship and top 2 seed dream has flown, but there is still a lot to play for here.

The difference between a 3 seed and a 6 seed could define the overall success of the season based on NCAAt path alone.
Let's not even entertain continuing to stumble down to 7 and below seed territory, because that door isn't closed yet either. A lot to play for

[brewcity77]

I'd love a 3, but it's crazy how thin the margins are this year between the 4/5 seeds and the 8-seeds. If we don't get a 3, I think I'd prefer a 6 to a 4/5 because the only teams that feel borderline unbeatable are on the 1-line.

[Newsdreams]

MU will play @ Dayton

[tower912]

MU will play @ Dayton

Not again!

[DoctorV]

I'd love a 3, but it's crazy how thin the margins are this year between the 4/5 seeds and the 8-seeds. If we don't get a 3, I think I'd prefer a 6 to a 4/5 because the only teams that feel borderline unbeatable are on the 1-line.

Excellent point.

Only problem is that to get to the 6/7 line we'd officially be looking at a rock solid Feb Fade.

Then you've gotta pick up the pieces and get it all together in one weekend in the NCAAt, which is much harder to do than coming in with some confidence

[GoldenEagles03]

Excellent point.

Only problem is that to get to the 6/7 line we'd officially be looking at a rock solid Feb Fade.

Then you've gotta pick up the pieces and get it all together in one weekend in the NCAAt, which is much harder to do than coming in with some confidence

Either way we'll be screwed in Scoop terms.

We'll either go into March on a 3 game win streak and Big East Title meaning we're too gassed for a March Madness run...or...we'll be coming off a loss at MSG which will be tough for us to comeback from seeing our momentum is shot.

[Scoop Snoop]

MU will play @ Dayton

Fieldhouse Flyer will be at the game and will return to scoop to post full page comments reflecting his expertise as well as reminding us of Dayton's academic superiority over Marquette.

[BrewCity83]

Either way we'll be screwed in Scoop terms.

We'll either go into March on a 3 game win streak and Big East Title meaning we're too gassed for a March Madness run...or...we'll be coming off a loss at MSG which will be tough for us to comeback from seeing our momentum is shot.

...or....we win our last 7 regular season games.  Then coming off a BET loss, even if it's early, can't shake our momentum as we go 7-1 or 8-1 going into the NCAAs.