Modest Suggestions For In-game Adjustments

[BM1090]

I'm all for Jop taking a few midrange shots. It seems to help him find his stroke and he's been plenty effective in that area.

I don't see anyone else on the team that I'd like to shoot midrange shots. None of the other starters have shown anything to indicate they'd be effective operating there.

[MUfan12]

I'm all for Jop taking a few midrange shots. It seems to help him find his stroke and he's been plenty effective in that area.

I don't see anyone else on the team that I'd like to shoot midrange shots. None of the other starters have shown anything to indicate they'd be effective operating there.

Agree, though I'd be okay with Ben. Like if he flashes to the FT line against a zone.

[tower912]

Nobody listens to Shaka.  Like the 32 deflections goal, the team has a percentage goal for how many ATR's and 3's they want out of total shots.  It isn't 100%.

[rocky_warrior]

Nobody listens to Shaka.  Like the 32 deflections goal, the team has a percentage goal for how many ATR's and 3's they want out of total shots.  It isn't 100%.

Sure, but assuming that was 100% of their shots at half, I doubt he'd suggest they take a few mid-range just to get the percentage down     The goal is a minimum.  100% is the maximum.

[Elonsmusk]

Count me in the old guys camp.

I get why you want your shots at the rim or behind the 3 point line. I'm going to have a lot of buts now.

But if you are not a good 3 point shooting team, the 3 point shot is not a good shot.

But if you are struggling to score at the rim due to a shot blocker or it's not your night. Why continue the absolute of I still want to take a shot at the rim every time.

Sometimes you need to adjust based on current outcomes.  Sometimes a midrange shot might be a tool to help loosen up the 3 point shooting or getting better looks at the rim.

My thinking is there are no absolutes.  Yes we want to shoot 3s or at the rim.  Doesn't mean you can't deviate and try something different when those options are not working.

I agree. Perfectly stated.

[Elonsmusk]

You aren't saying to change the offense?

LOL, that's exactly what you are saying. Again 10-12 foot shots are not made THAT much more often than three pointers. People are out here acting like they are layups or something.

A high major D-1 player should be able to shoot 50th percent in mid range. What's our team's free throw percentage?  It's at least double our 3 point shooting percentage. So, a FT, 15 feet. Taking a shot out of rhythm. A shot on the road with the crowd actively heckling the shot attempt.

Select mid range shots at Ft line, elbow area are pretty easy shots, which I'm sure you know.

And to others points, if you want to loosen up a defense like the way Creighton defends, and others in drop coverage D, because they know you won't take the mid range shots- your percentage at the rim is going to go down.

[wadesworld]

A high major D-1 player should be able to shoot 50th percent in mid range. What's our team's free throw percentage?  It's at least double our 3 point shooting percentage. So, a FT, 15 feet. Taking a shot out of rhythm. A shot on the road with the crowd actively heckling the shot attempt.

Select mid range shots at Ft line, elbow area are pretty easy shots, which I'm sure you know.

And to others points, if you want to loosen up a defense like the way Creighton defends, and others in drop coverage D, because they know you won't take the mid range shots- your percentage at the rim is going to go down.

As Brew's post shows, the absolute best team in the country at shooting short mid range jumpers shoots them at 50.8% and the absolute best team in the country at shooting long mid range jumpers shoots them at 52.4%. The median for short mid range jumpers is 37.9% and median for long mid range jumpers is 36%.

So the stats suggest a D1 player should be able to shoot mid range jumpers at 50% is just a crazy expectation.

And comparing a live ball free throw line jumper to a guy taking a free throw is absolutely crazy.

[The Sultan]

A high major D-1 player should be able to shoot 50th percent in mid range.

LOL. An average D1 player doesn't come close to that. According to the stats posted by brew, the median "short mid-range" team shoots 37.9%. "Long mid range" is 36%.

An average NBA player doesn't even come close to that.

[CTWarrior]

Outside of St. John's name another decent team thriving on midrange jumpers in college or the pros. The dirk, or gasol mid range isn't coming back.

I am confident the mid-range game will eventually come back.  Everything is cyclical.  Its a shot you can get and if you can make it 55% of them time, it's one more thing the defense has to worry about and it will open up more of the 3's and layups.

Not saying we should start doing it, but it will come back.  When I was playing ball a million years ago, the hardest guys to guard were the ones who were liable to pull and shoot from any distance.

[The Sultan]

I am confident the mid-range game will eventually come back.  Everything is cyclical.  Its a shot you can get and if you can make it 55% of them time, it's one more thing the defense has to worry about and it will open up more of the 3's and layups.

It will not come back because the math doesn't work.  The only way it comes back is if you make the three harder to make.

And who's shooting 55% from mid-range???? Again, NBA teams shoot less than 5% worse from 3 than they do from mid-range depending on the spot on the floor.

https://www.82games.com/locations.htm

[The Sultan]

There must be a perception out there that if you take a shot twice as long, that it becomes twice as hard to make. And that simply isn't the case. Players don't make twice as many of their 11' mid-range shots as they do their 22' three pointers.

That's the whole point of the offense!!!

[Uncle Rico]

Ban the 3 and the dunk and I bet the mid-range comes back.  Ah, the good ol' days.  Women didn't wear trousers and basketball was played the right way.

[MUDPT]

I thought a guy who could consistently get fouled and free throws would be extremely helpful for all of the offensive droughts and then Saturday happened...

[Newsdreams]

This is hilarious, so many people don't understand statistics and math, thus don't know modern basketball. And anyone thinking 50% mid range made is normal?? LOL

[DoctorV]

It will not come back because the math doesn't work.  The only way it comes back is if you make the three harder to make.

And who's shooting 55% from mid-range???? Again, NBA teams shoot less than 5% worse from 3 than they do from mid-range depending on the spot on the floor.

https://www.82games.com/locations.htm

The 3P line will definitely be moved back soon, as there has been smoke coming out of the NBA that the product is being diluted by way too many 3P attempts.

It's just making the game uglier and more boring. Who wants to see lazy defense and 60 3P attempts per game to go along with a bunch of highlight reel dunks? Sure, the dunks are great, but the diversity and beauty of the game is taking a hit.

I'm not arguing the data, I'm just saying that they will move the line back in an attempt to get more team basketball and all over the court involvement.

Is there a thing about possible shrinking the quarter lengths to 10 minutes? My wife said she saw that on the ticker the other day but I haven't followed up on looking it up anywhere

[rocky_warrior]

There must be a perception out there that if you take a shot twice as long, that it becomes twice as hard to make. And that simply isn't the case. Players don't make twice as many of their 11' mid-range shots as they do their 22' three pointers.

That's the whole point of the offense!!!

I don't think anyone here is advocating for a lot of long 2s (but maybe they are).  Another example, Purdue is one of the "best" teams that I've found that still take a lot of "Far 2s"

https://barttorvik.com/team.php?team=Purdue&year=2025

Scroll to the bottom of the page for player stats.  They've actually taken more "Far 2s" than "Close 2s".  We'll ignore dunks.

Nonetheless hitting 46.7% of their 405 far 2s is good for 378 points for the year.  Had those 405 attempts been for 3s instead, and they hit them at their 37.7% three point rate, it would have been 458 points. 

So...that's why Shaka dislikes the math on long 2s.

edit: And Torvic's description of the stat, and why it's different than synergy type data: "Hi -- it is based on descriptions in the play by play data. So "layups" "tips" "dunks" (etc) are counted as rim attempts, and all other twos are counted as mid-range. Obviously this is far from an exact science, as it relies on scorekeeper descriptions and play-by-play fidelity ... but it's the best I can do, which is good enough for me."

[tower912]

To move the 3 pt line back, they will need to make the court wider.   I understand all of the aesthetic arguments about the mid range jumpers.  But it is all about numbers.  The best teams barely top 50% from the midrange.   Lots of teams shoot 33% from 3.   Math.
  Dr. V, I completely agree about NBA games.   However, math is math.   Nobody is running post ups anymore.  Teams are willing to trade 2s for 3s.  Math.   Heck, Loyola Marymount was doing this under Paul Westhead in the late 80s.  Now it is the norm.

[rocky_warrior]

To move the 3 pt line back, they will need to make the court wider.

Or eliminate the corner 3....

[The Sultan]

The 3P line will definitely be moved back soon, as there has been smoke coming out of the NBA that the product is being diluted by way too many 3P attempts.

It's just making the game uglier and more boring. Who wants to see lazy defense and 60 3P attempts per game to go along with a bunch of highlight reel dunks? Sure, the dunks are great, but the diversity and beauty of the game is taking a hit.

I'm not arguing the data, I'm just saying that they will move the line back in an attempt to get more team basketball and all over the court involvement.

Is there a thing about possible shrinking the quarter lengths to 10 minutes? My wife said she saw that on the ticker the other day but I haven't followed up on looking it up anywhere

Do you think people watch the NBA want to see more mid range?

[Newsdreams]

The 3P line will definitely be moved back soon, as there has been smoke coming out of the NBA that the product is being diluted by way too many 3P attempts.

It's just making the game uglier and more boring. Who wants to see lazy defense and 60 3P attempts per game to go along with a bunch of highlight reel dunks? Sure, the dunks are great, but the diversity and beauty of the game is taking a hit.

I'm not arguing the data, I'm just saying that they will move the line back in an attempt to get more team basketball and all over the court involvement.

Is there a thing about possible shrinking the quarter lengths to 10 minutes? My wife said she saw that on the ticker the other day but I haven't followed up on looking it up anywhere

It will be the same, the first 30-35% of games in NBA will continue to be that way until crunch time after mid season.

[Elonsmusk]

LOL. An average D1 player doesn't come close to that. According to the stats posted by brew, the median "short mid-range" team shoots 37.9%. "Long mid range" is 36%.

An average NBA player doesn't even come close to that.

Who said "average" D1 player. I said high major. Brew's stats are great, but it's quite possible that many mid range shots are now of the desperation variety because of the analytics and "math" involved - and that they aren't intended outcomes from an offensive set. 

Not all mid range shots have the same degree of difficulty either. I'm more advocating for elbow/FT line extended types is "mid range," not long mid range, and not necessarily "short" midrange, if short is considered anything outside of 4 feet.

But, being SO two dimensional as an offense seems to be causing a degree of challenge to our ability to finish at the rim too.

[The Sultan]

Who said "average" D1 player. I said high major. Brew's stats are great, but it's quite possible that many mid range shots are now of the desperation variety because of the analytics and "math" involved - and that they aren't intended outcomes from an offensive set. 

Not all mid range shots have the same degree of difficulty either. I'm more advocating for elbow/FT line extended types is "mid range," not long mid range, and not necessarily "short" midrange, if short is considered anything outside of 4 feet.

But, being SO two dimensional as an offense seems to be causing a degree of challenge to our ability to finish at the rim too.

lol. Whatever it takes to justify your bad take. Even good high major players don't shoot 50% from mid range.

[tower912]

Kadary Richmond, lifetime 44% shooter from 2.

[romey]

Ok. So never take a two point shot. Cuz math.
I stated earlier; No one seems to be willing to admit, once or twice a game, a two may be better than a three.
A guy cuts through traffic, his defender gets screened it falls down. Guy is wide open at the free throw line. Kick it back out because season stats say "no". Never mind in THAT situation that may be the best shot. I'm out.
This is one reason I don't post.

[The Sultan]

Ok. So never take a two point shot. Cuz math.
I stated earlier; No one seems to be willing to admit, once or twice a game, a two may be better than a three.
A guy cuts through traffic, his defender gets screened it falls down. Guy is wide open at the free throw line. Kick it back out because season stats say "no". Never mind in THAT situation that may be the best shot. I'm out.
This is one reason I don't post.

Gosh if you never posted, how could we be able to read your hyperbolic nonsense.

I DID admit that an occasional mid range shot is fine. And of course no one said "never take a two point shot."