Modest Suggestions For In-game Adjustments

[MU 1971]

In order to make adjustments early in the first 10 minutes of the 1st half, how about the following for the next 4 minute segments:
1. Have Steivie and Ross takeover point guard duties
2. Start taking open midrange jumpers to improve scoring and improve overall confidence in shooting accuracy
3. Only take open threes after offensive rebound
4. Make further adjustments at each 4 min segments.

Just an idea

[wadesworld]

Throw it in to Caedin and let him go to work in the post.

Every offensive player touches the ball before a shot goes up.

[We R Final Four]

#1 and #4 I can live with......

#2 and #3 are contrary to this coaching staff's approach and are not happening.

[The Sultan]

In order to make adjustments early in the first 10 minutes of the 1st half, how about the following for the next 4 minute segments:
1. Have Steivie and Ross takeover point guard duties
2. Start taking open midrange jumpers to improve scoring and improve overall confidence in shooting accuracy
3. Only take open threes after offensive rebound
4. Make further adjustments at each 4 min segments.

Just an idea

1. Not going to happen.
2. Not going to happen. And I have not sure how it will "improve scoring."
3. That would be unprecedented in a modern college basketball offense.

[Uncle Rico]

Must.  Not.  Do.  It.

[Galway Eagle]

Outside of St. John's name another decent team thriving on midrange jumpers in college or the pros. The dirk, or gasol mid range isn't coming back.

[Its DJOver]

If these suggestions are of the modest variety, I can't wait to hear the normal or even the extreme suggestions. I imagine it would be some combination of burn Sean/Josh/Al's redshirts and run full hockey style line changes.

[MU 1971]

To clarify these adjustmemts would only be for thr 4 min segment snd would return to SOP thereafter

[GB Warrior]

Throw it in to Caedin and let him go to work in the post.

Every offensive player touches the ball before a shot goes up.

And tell Caedin to dunk instead of pivoting himself into a bad hook shot?

[tower912]

In order to make adjustments early in the first 10 minutes of the 1st half, how about the following for the next 4 minute segments:
1. Have Steivie and Ross takeover point guard duties
2. Start taking open midrange jumpers to improve scoring and improve overall confidence in shooting accuracy
3. Only take open threes after offensive rebound
4. Make further adjustments at each 4 min segments.

Just an idea

I am OK with 1.  As a matter of fact, so is Shaka, as in most games there are possessions where Stevie and Chase initiate the offense.

As to 2, it would require different coaches.   Nevada and Shaka's philosophy completely eschews the mid range.  Shaka has said there is no better shot than an open 3.  Now, next season, if Sean has a good tear drop, I can see them letting him use it, as 5'9 needs help in the trees.   Other than that, 3's and point blanks. 
3 assumes offensive rebounds.  And yes, it seems most teams shoot 3s better off of O Rebounds when the defense is scrambling and trying to recover.
4.  The staff makes generally good adjustments at halftime.  Midrange jumpers are unlikely to make the list

[#UnleashSean]

Throw it in to Caedin and let him go to work in the post.

Every offensive player touches the ball before a shot goes up.

5 passes and an open cut before were allowed to shoot!

[ATL MU Warrior]

No threes until the ball has touched the paint!

[GoldenEagles03]

No threes until the ball has touched the paint!

No. Let them play free. They are taking the right shots, just knock em the phuck down. Want to take the shots, don't just hope for them to go in.

Don't change the looks they're getting.

[MU 1971]

Thanks for your comments, Tower 912. And, yes, I am an old goat of some 76 years on this green earth.

The reason for suggesting using - only for 4 minutes - Open midrange shots is to boost the confidence of the shooters by having them see the ball go thru the hoop.  The team will revert to the SOP strategy after this short term adjustment. 

Successful shooters all demonstrate excellent, repeatable mechanics, which is about 85% of what it takes, leaving a little for allowances for fatigue.  The rest is shooter confidence.

Just one man's opinion, recognizing I may very well be wrong.

[jesmu84]

Thanks for your comments, Tower 912. And, yes, I am an old goat of some 76 years on this green earth.

The reason for suggesting using - only for 4 minutes - Open midrange shots is to boost the confidence of the shooters by having them see the ball go thru the hoop.  The team will revert to the SOP strategy after this short term adjustment. 

Successful shooters all demonstrate excellent, repeatable mechanics, which is about 85% of what it takes, leaving a little for allowances for fatigue.  The rest is shooter confidence.

Just one man's opinion, recognizing I may very well be wrong.

What if they miss all the midrange shots?

[MU 1971]

If we miss all the open midrange shots then we don't have a good team.

[Billy Hoyle]

Shaka needs to bring this guy in and mandate no fewer than four passes before the team put up a shot



On a serious note, I would like to see odd-man fast breaks finished at the rim instead of pulling up from three. Nothing like a miss on a 3 on 1 when Kam or Chase could just dunk the ball and get the crowd going.

[tower912]

1971, I watch other teams.  I love college basketball.  I watched Seton Hall and DePaul last night.  Both teams were notable for taking and missing mid range jumpers.
Because of my wife, I watch far too much IU basketball.  IU has a traditional aircraft carrier big and runs sets to get mid range jumpers.  Their fans are not happy.
  Izzo will let his guards shoot pull up jumpers in the lane.  His team also shoots erratically from 3, but balance that by having a 10-player rotation and hitting the boards hard.
  Even in the NBA, the metrics have led to the mid range jumper being phased out.
I get the aesthetics.  I, too, grew up in an era where coming off a down screen and shooting a 15 foot jumper was a good shot.  But, with the advent of the 3 pt line and a shot clock in college basketball, it no longer the percentage shot.
  Shaka and Nevada Smith take that to an extreme.  But their logic and metrics say that the most efficient shots are the open 3 and the point blank shot.  Unfortunately, sometimes the shots don't fall.  But they are still the shots the coaches want.

[muwarrior69]

5.Just put the ball in the basket. 

[MU 1971]

Tower 912, you make a very persuasive argument for staying with the team's current strategy.  I will keep my fingers crossed for our next game in the Garden.

BTW, I was a Junior when we went to the 1970 NIT, where we kept the nation's leading scorer - Pete Maravich to only 16 points.  He was averaging over 40 pts or so.  Dean was the MVP.  We finished the year at 27 - 3.  But, Al was wrong to pass on the NCAA's over a pique with Kentucky's Rupp.  We were definately a final four team that year.

I had an occassion to talk directly with Coach Al that morning in the Athletic Office, where he told us what happened and asked what
should he do. We three students said got to go to the NCAA's

"So much for democracy", said AL to us.  And the rest is history.

[Shooter McGavin]

Interesting stuff 71.  Thanks for sharing

[tower912]

1971, thanks for the story.  And my love of midrange jumpers was cemented by Vinnie Johnson on the Bad Boy Pistons.  Listed at 6'2, closer to 5'11, when he got it going, it was awesome to watch. 
The game has evolved.

[Scoop Snoop]

Tower 912, you make a very persuasive argument for staying with the team's current strategy.  I will keep my fingers crossed for our next game in the Garden.

BTW, I was a Junior when we went to the 1970 NIT, where we kept the nation's leading scorer - Pete Maravich to only 16 points.  He was averaging over 40 pts or so.  Dean was the MVP.  We finished the year at 27 - 3.  But, Al was wrong to pass on the NCAA's over a pique with Kentucky's Adolph Rupp.  We were definitely a final four team that year

"So much for democracy", said AL to us. 

Class of '70 here. Looks like you just joined. If you have been lurking, you would know from Lenny's replies to my posts on the matter that Al's choosing to go to the NIT and snub the NCAA was not only accepted but wildly popular with the team, students, and all other fans. It was a great decision! So what if we passed up a golden opportunity to make it to the National Championship game and face UCLA? Winning the NIT was just as good, right?. 

Al's democracy comment reminded me of Lincoln asking 7 cabinet members to share their thoughts about the Emancipation Proclamation. They prearranged to talk it down and all 7 said it was a bad idea. Lincoln's response? "Seven nays and one aye. The ayes have it!"

[MU 1971]

So, to explain the weird encounter with Coach Al, I was on my way to a 9 o'clock class when I stopped into the Athletic Office to find out about our invitation to the NCAA's.  But, there was nobody in the office, the door was open and there were two other students sitting in the receptionist area.   

Only a minute after I arrived we could hear someone shouting loudly about something but we had no idea what was being said. Suddenly, Al appeared out of nowhere and asked the three of us ... "what the hell we were doing there".  We all explained that we were on our way to class and just wanted to know about the NCAA's. We only wanted to ask the receptionist where we would be going.

Then, out of the blue, Al asked we three students about NCAA vs. NIT.  None of us were personally known to Al, although my brother Gene was a manager on the team.  We said go to the NCAA's.

Anyway, that's how it all came about.

[brewcity77]

Here's a quick statistical explainer on why the staff avoids mid-range jump shots. I went to Synergy and pulled the numbers for team scoring on shots at the rim, in short (<17 feet) jumpers, and long (17 feet to the arc) 2-point jumpers. Here are the results:

At The Rim

• Best: Cornell, 1.433 ppp, 68.8 FG%
• Marquette, 1.234 ppp, 60.0 FG%, #136
• Median: Arkansas-Pine Bluff, 1.210 ppp, 59.1 FG%
• Worst: Chicago State, 0.963 ppp, 46.9 FG%
• Average: 1.230 ppp, 60.2 FG%

Short Midrange

• Best: Oregon State, 1.038 ppp, 50.8 FG% (ATR equivalent: #354 New Orleans)
  
• Marquette, 0.681, 34.0 FG%, #307
• Median: San Diego, 0.779 ppp, 37.9 FG% (ATR equivalent: NONE)
  
• Worst: Kansas State, 0.455 ppp, 22.2 FG% (ATR equivalent: NONE)
  
• Average: 0.780 ppp, 38.5 FG% (ATR equivalent: NONE)

Long Midrange

• Best: Denver, 1.048 ppp, 52.4 FG% (ATR equivalent: #353 Louisiana-Lafayette)
  
• Median: San Diego, 0.720 ppp, 36.0 FG% (ATR equivalent: NONE)
  
• Worst: Rhode Island, 0.341 ppp, 17.1 FG% (ATR equivalent: NONE)
  
• Average: 0.717 ppp, 35.6 FG% (ATR equivalent: NONE)
  
• Marquette: NOT RANKED (presumably no shots recorded in this area)

I will caveat the last one because it stood out. CBB Analytics had Marquette at 4/7 on long mid-range shots. Not sure why the discrepancy, but so far in the season they are very rare regardless. Also, the averages I used are not exact. I took the average ppp for teams as the baseline, but as team shot volume varies, that could be very different than the approximate ppp and FG%. However, as both were pretty close to the median, I think it's close enough to illustrate the point.

There are a couple takeaways I have from this data:

1: At The Rim is more efficient: Chicago State makes ATR look less efficient, but if you look at the #1 teams in short (OSU 1.038) and long (Denver 1.048) midrange points per possession, neither of them are as good in midrange as #353 Louisiana-Lafayette (1.050) is at the rim. The very best teams in midrange are about as efficient scoring the basketball from that part of the court as the very worst teams are at the rim.

2: Marquette is far better ATR: Our sample size is admittedly smaller because we prioritize getting to the rim, but our ATR scoring rate nearly doubles our midrange. Even if we use the 4/7 number for long midrange that CBB Analytics has, Marquette's 1.143 (57.1 FG%) is less efficient than our current ATR scoring, and as that 1.143 is 0.105 better than the best long midrange team in the country (and roughly equal to the difference between #1 Denver and #27 Lehigh) I'm going to consider those 7 shots to be the more likely statistical outlier.

We already know this staff has prioritized a modern offense with shots at the rim and from three since they came here. The data supports that even bad ATR teams are better at the rim than the best midrange teams are in midrange. And Marquette in particular is better in that regard. I don't think there's any chance we would change this philosophy considering how data-driven this staff is.

I sincerely hope this helps explain why they go with the philosophy they do. It leads to higher likelihood of scoring and better outcomes, even if it runs counter to what many of us grew up watching.

And bear in mind if you have a truly elite midrange shooter that hits 60+% (Curtis Jones from ISU, for instance), then those might be good shots even in our offense. But the only player on Marquette who makes over 50% on midrange is Stevie Mitchell, and that's on 4 attempts all year (3/4). It would go against all the coaching they've done for the past 4 years.