Modest Suggestions For In-game Adjustments

[GoldenEagles03]

I'm not saying to take long range shots.

I'm not saying to change our offense.

I'm saying sometimes try something else to loosen up the offense when you can't make a shot at the rim or from 3.

You guys and your absolutes.

Maybe if the 10-12 footer is open, you take it and see if it loosens up the defense. Oso hitting those 8-10 footer push shots did open things up around the rim. There is none of that now

Also sometimes when as a player to are shooting bricks, seeing a shot go in can turn it around.

As mentioned by others, Joplin is really the only one equipped. He's a good midrange shooter, but we don't want him taking loads of them. If he's doing it solely to open up lanes for himself it may not be the best strategy either, because when he drives to the hoop it's a 50/50 chance that he looks unstoppable to the basket or turns it over.

[The Sultan]

I'm not saying to take long range shots.

I'm not saying to change our offense.

I'm saying sometimes try something else to loosen up the offense when you can't make a shot at the rim or from 3.

You guys and your absolutes.

Maybe if the 10-12 footer is open, you take it and see if it loosens up the defense. Oso hitting those 8-10 footer push shots did open things up around the rim. There is none of that now

Also sometimes when as a player to are shooting bricks, seeing a shot go in can turn it around.

You aren't saying to change the offense?

LOL, that's exactly what you are saying. Again 10-12 foot shots are not made THAT much more often than three pointers. People are out here acting like they are layups or something.

[tower912]

Big Papi, I have said it earlier in this thread, I grew up with the mid range jump shot, I loved watching Vinnie Johnson microwaving defenses with it, I get the old guy aesthetic argument.    But the data simply does not back it.  Shooting 33% from 3 is the same as shooting 50% from the mid range and very few players shoot 50% pulling up from 12-20 feet.  It is math, pure and simple.  The math does not care about the unicorn Vinnie Johnsons of the basketball world.  If they happen to get hot, so be it.  The math still says 3 pt shooting and layups.  Not the Jack Sikma, Larry Bird step backs. 
  I have a suspicion that we will see some next season with Sean.  Career 29% shooter from 3, 41% shooter on 2's.  Because of his speed and lack of size, I can picture him pulling up for tear drops instead of challenging shot blockers.  Even though he did very little of that in his season and a half.  We shall see.  But if he does so and continues to shoot low 40's from 2, will he be criticized by scoopers?  Because 29% from 3 is marginally more efficient than 41% from 2. 

[Its DJOver]

The only change in the offense people should be wanting is more ball movement to create catch-and-shoot 3's rather than off-the-dribble 3's.

[mutodd5]

Long Midrange

• Best: Denver, 1.048 ppp, 52.4 FG% (ATR equivalent: #353 Louisiana-Lafayette)
• Median: San Diego, 0.720 ppp, 36.0 FG% (ATR equivalent: NONE)
• Worst: Rhode Island, 0.341 ppp, 17.1 FG% (ATR equivalent: NONE)
• Average: 0.717 ppp, 35.6 FG% (ATR equivalent: NONE)
• Marquette: NOT RANKED (presumably no shots recorded in this area)

I will caveat the last one because it stood out. CBB Analytics had Marquette at 4/7 on long mid-range shots. Not sure why the discrepancy, but so far in the season they are very rare regardless. Also, the averages I used are not exact. I took the average ppp for teams as the baseline, but as team shot volume varies, that could be very different than the approximate ppp and FG%. However, as both were pretty close to the median, I think it's close enough to illustrate the point.

These are all likely intended 3-pt attempts that had a toe on the line!

[GoldenEagles03]

The only change in the offense people should be wanting is more ball movement to create catch-and-shoot 3's rather than off-the-dribble 3's.

Do they take many of those? Maybe Joplin?

I know Ben and Stevie aren't taking many of those...probably few from Chase as well.

[JakeBarnes]

The only change in the offense people should be wanting is more ball movement to create catch-and-shoot 3's rather than off-the-dribble 3's.

Agree. A lot of the "kam drives into 3 people" had an outlet guy for a catch and shoot early in the season. And we hit those.

Same with Jop's drives--he should be looking for a clear path (which he's been finding) or looking for the outlet guy.

Chase...Chase can keep driving with violence. It tends to be a basket or a foul.

[MarquetteDano]

Only adjustment I would recommend is in transition:  a few teams this year have,  several times during the game,  crashed 4 guys to the offensive boards.  I would not mind seeing Chase ready to release in transition and take the team's guard to get an easy bucket.

I get we are not a great defensive rebounding team and Chase really helps.  But a few times a game you need to make an offense pay for crashing so many guys on the offensive boards.

[romey]

There's a difference between a wide open three and a contested three, or a three that goes up as the shot clock is expiring because we can't get an open three.  Just as there is a differ3ence between a 10 - 15 foot shot wide open.  I get it, Shaka prefers the three. Does he prefer a contested three to a wide open two?  I guess so.  It just seems extreme that we almost never take a 10-15 footer.  Great conversation guys.  Thanks for the dialogue.  As 82 likes to say "We are Marquette."

Win any way we can.

[jesmu84]

There's too much shotgun in the NFL. Line up in the wing T and run it if the defense is gonna give it to you

[tower912]

There's too much shotgun in the NFL. Line up in the wing T and run it if the defense is gonna give it to you

The Packer sweep is due for a return to glory.

The wing T is quite popular at high schools around here.  At the pro level, isn't that what Philly does on short yardage play?  Wing T with all of the backs pushing the QB.

[Uncle Rico]

RIP Joe Lieberman

[tower912]

Here's a quick statistical explainer on why the staff avoids mid-range jump shots. I went to Synergy and pulled the numbers for team scoring on shots at the rim, in short (<17 feet) jumpers, and long (17 feet to the arc) 2-point jumpers. Here are the results:

At The Rim

• Best: Cornell, 1.433 ppp, 68.8 FG%
• Marquette, 1.234 ppp, 60.0 FG%, #136
  
• Median: Arkansas-Pine Bluff, 1.210 ppp, 59.1 FG%
  
• Worst: Chicago State, 0.963 ppp, 46.9 FG%
  
• Average: 1.230 ppp, 60.2 FG%
  

Short Midrange
[/b]

• Best: Oregon State, 1.038 ppp, 50.8 FG% (ATR equivalent: #354 New Orleans)
  
• Marquette, 0.681, 34.0 FG%, #307
  
• Median: San Diego, 0.779 ppp, 37.9 FG% (ATR equivalent: NONE)
  
• Worst: Kansas State, 0.455 ppp, 22.2 FG% (ATR equivalent: NONE)
  
• Average: 0.780 ppp, 38.5 FG% (ATR equivalent: NONE)
  

Long Midrange
[/b][/b]

• Best: Denver, 1.048 ppp, 52.4 FG% (ATR equivalent: #353 Louisiana-Lafayette)
  
• Median: San Diego, 0.720 ppp, 36.0 FG% (ATR equivalent: NONE)
  
• Worst: Rhode Island, 0.341 ppp, 17.1 FG% (ATR equivalent: NONE)
  
• Average: 0.717 ppp, 35.6 FG% (ATR equivalent: NONE)
  
• Marquette: NOT RANKED (presumably no shots recorded in this area)
  

I will caveat the last one because it stood out. CBB Analytics had Marquette at 4/7 on long mid-range shots. Not sure why the discrepancy, but so far in the season they are very rare regardless. Also, the averages I used are not exact. I took the average ppp for teams as the baseline, but as team shot volume varies, that could be very different than the approximate ppp and FG%. However, as both were pretty close to the median, I think it's close enough to illustrate the point.

There are a couple takeaways I have from this data:

1: At The Rim is more efficient: Chicago State makes ATR look less efficient, but if you look at the #1 teams in short (OSU 1.038) and long (Denver 1.048) midrange points per possession, neither of them are as good in midrange as #353 Louisiana-Lafayette (1.050) is at the rim. The very best teams in midrange are about as efficient scoring the basketball from that part of the court as the very worst teams are at the rim.

2: Marquette is far better ATR: Our sample size is admittedly smaller because we prioritize getting to the rim, but our ATR scoring rate nearly doubles our midrange. Even if we use the 4/7 number for long midrange that CBB Analytics has, Marquette's 1.143 (57.1 FG%) is less efficient than our current ATR scoring, and as that 1.143 is 0.105 better than the best long midrange team in the country (and roughly equal to the difference between #1 Denver and #27 Lehigh) I'm going to consider those 7 shots to be the more likely statistical outlier.

We already know this staff has prioritized a modern offense with shots at the rim and from three since they came here. The data supports that even bad ATR teams are better at the rim than the best midrange teams are in midrange. And Marquette in particular is better in that regard. I don't think there's any chance we would change this philosophy considering how data-driven this staff is.

I sincerely hope this helps explain why they go with the philosophy they do. It leads to higher likelihood of scoring and better outcomes, even if it runs counter to what many of us grew up watching.

And bear in mind if you have a truly elite midrange shooter that hits 60+% (Curtis Jones from ISU, for instance), then those might be good shots even in our offense. But the only player on Marquette who makes over 50% on midrange is Stevie Mitchell, and that's on 4 attempts all year (3/4). It would go against all the coaching they've done for the past 4 years.

• The thing that stands out to me is the math.  35% from 3 is better than the best college teams at both short and long mid range jumpers.
  
  

[Uncle Rico]

• The thing that stands out to me is the math.  35% from 3 is better than the best college teams at both short and long mid range jumpers.
  
  
  

Facts are dumb

[rocky_warrior]

I've got a modest suggestion.  Make the halftime adjustments at the first TV timeout.  Boom!  Problem solved.

[Newsdreams]

I've got a modest suggestion.  Make the halftime adjustments at the first TV timeout.  Boom!  Problem solved.

Get ahead of the game!

[muwarrior69]

The Packer sweep is due for a return to glory.

The wing T is quite popular at high schools around here.  At the pro level, isn't that what Philly does on short yardage play?  Wing T with all of the backs pushing the QB.

Not until they move the hash marks closer to the endlines like they were years ago.

[Newsdreams]

• The thing that stands out to me is the math.  35% from 3 is better than the best college teams at both short and long mid range jumpers.
  
  
  

Me thinks many didn't read the article and some who did, didn't understand.

[Scoop Snoop]

I've got a modest suggestion.  Make the halftime adjustments at the first TV timeout.  Boom!  Problem solved.

Better yet, make them in the locker room before the game. That will catch the opponents completely by surprise.

Let's do this tonight. I think we should shoot nothing but midrange jumpers in the first half.

[romey]

Hey, good idea.  Kin

There's too much shotgun in the NFL. Line up in the wing T and run it if the defense is gonna give it to you

Kinda like Detroit once in a while throws out a wrinkle no one is prepared for. 
Like maybe taking a wide open 15 footer once or twice a game.

[tower912]

Bit even the wrinkles get criticized when they don't work.  And nobody wins emphasizing trick plays.

[The Sultan]

RIP Joe Lieberman

I guaranty you he was a fan of the mid-range game.

[barfolomew]

• The thing that stands out to me is the math.  35% from 3 is better than the best college teams at both short and long mid range jumpers.
  
  

The thing that stands out to me is everything because of your use of bold font.

[romey]

No one's going to admit there may be a couple times a game where it may make sense to shoot a 15-footer.  Thanks for the conversation guys.
Let's start hitting our threes again and maybe we won't have to discuss this again.
We Are Marquette.

[The Sultan]

No one's going to admit there may be a couple times a game where it may make sense to shoot a 15-footer. 

A couple times a game? Sure. I can buy that actually.