FREE THROW ISSUES

[Jay Bee]

This is the thing. So when Oso goes to the line at the end of a game, not worried so much. He seems to be clutch at the line despite his 60+% season. (Now that I said that, l bet someone zaps me with a stat that shows he's not). In any case, FREE THROWS MATTER. I think the micro is what we're talking about. I feel like MU has no hack-a-shacks on our team. But it's certainly possible a missed FT could cost or make MU a national 🏆.  Wouldn't that be a moment!

I was a Michigan fan when Remuel Robinson hit clutch FTs in 89 to win it. Seton Hall had a player on a mission ...but UM pulled it out

No. What done of us are taking about is that team ft% isn't relevant to winning bball games. Bad Ft teams are still elite offensively at the line.

#FTsNoMatta

[frozena pizza]

I think it depends on how you look at this.  It's fair to say that an incremental improvement in any single fundamental aspect of the game is unlikely to change the result of any particular game or materially change a team's record over the course of the season.  It's also true that a missed layup in the opening minute is just as big of a missed opportunity as missing the front of a 1-1 when the score is tied in the final minute.  But you have to acknowledge that regardless of how you got to that point, in close games a losing team will always try to foul to send the other team to the line to stop the clock and hope they miss free throws in order to generate more possessions.  Having excellent FT shooters who can convert in these pressure situations to close out a game (as Joplin thankfully did) is truly valuable at this time of the year and takes on greater importance (yes, ask Texas A&M and Baylor).  Looking at aggregated data over a longer time period without placing a premium on this situational aspect ignores this.  In addition, FT% should actually be given greater value as a statistic because it is one of the rare things in basketball that can be viewed as largely independent of other factors.  For example, turnovers, field goal %, and rebounding are often highly dependent on the opponent, lucky bounces, personnel, missed calls, and other circumstantial factors that diminish their value.  Finally, aside from whether this is actually a problem for Marquette or any other team, cherry picking certain teams that are not good at FTs but still win a lot of games is like pointing out a successful person with a history of alcohol abuse and saying it proves that alcoholism has no bearing on your career prospects.

[Jay Bee]

I think what gets to people on FTs is that we can all see great defenses causing low FG% but the FT% has nothing to due with the opponent.

Not true. You think defenses play all guys the same?

[WhiteTrash]

Not true. You think defenses play all guys the same?

I think we are not talking about the same thing. I was making the obvious point that there is no such thing as FT defense.

If you are referring to teams fouling poor FT shooters more often, then I agree because I guess FTs do matter at some level.

[Jockey]

To add, eFg% is a 90 correlate to MU's offensive efficiency. FTR is a 6.

There's a disconnect on this issue. FT no Matta is more of a season stat and the proof is plentiful.

People that mock this say that the 'FT no matta" concept is not nearly as relatable when it comes to individual games (at least I think that is their thinking).  In fact, I would venture that FT % is one of the most important factors when it comes to results of games decided by 5 points is less.

FTs made or missed in the last 2 minutes decide most close games. 

[WhiteTrash]

Fellow Warrior fans, can we all agree that 'Wins No Matta' was completely debunked?

[The Sultan]

There's a disconnect on this issue. FT no Matta is more of a season stat and the proof is plentiful.

People that mock this say that the 'FT no matta" concept is not nearly as relatable when it comes to individual games (at least I think that is their thinking).  In fact, I would venture that FT % is one of the most important factors when it comes to results of games decided by 5 points is less.

FTs made or missed in the last 2 minutes decide most close games. 

No. They don't. Games are decided by what occurs over the course of 40 minutes. People place outsized  importance on the last two minutes of close games because it's the last thing to occur during the game...during "crunch time"... so it is the last thing we remember.

But there are many times during games where an easy shot is missed...a bad turnover occurs...a defensive rebound is mishandled, etc. Those are just as important, if not more, to what "decides" a game than free throws in the last two minutes.

[tower912]

30 free throw attempts.   The difference between lousy and average is whether a team makes 20 or 21.    The 4 exceptional teams make 24.
24 free throw attempts.   The difference between lousy and very good is whether a team hits 16-18.

Unless a team is having an extremely bad day, free throws = elite scoring percentage per possession.   TAMU put up the numbers earlier.   

[The Sultan]

Put another way...

We didn't win the game yesterday because of David Joplin shooting free throws at the end.

We won the game yesterday because of how well we shot in the first half. If we don't shoot like that, and all else remains equal, Joplin's FTs would have been meaningless points in a losing effort. 

[Skatastrophy]

30 free throw attempts.   The difference between lousy and average is whether a team makes 20 or 21.    The 4 exceptional teams make 24.
24 free throw attempts.   The difference between lousy and very good is whether a team hits 16-18.

Unless a team is having an extremely bad day, free throws = elite scoring percentage per possession.   TAMU put up the numbers earlier.   

It's how Jimmy always had great offensive efficiency in college and in the pros. He seeks contact, gets his whistle, and gets the ball up. I'm surprised how many college players avoid contact, or if they get contact they don't do their best to get the ball above the rim no matter how bad their shot will be. The way the college game is called I think it would be an effective strat

[frozena pizza]

30 free throw attempts.   The difference between lousy and average is whether a team makes 20 or 21.    The 4 exceptional teams make 24.
24 free throw attempts.   The difference between lousy and very good is whether a team hits 16-18.

Unless a team is having an extremely bad day, free throws = elite scoring percentage per possession.   TAMU put up the numbers earlier.   

Yes but the conclusion here is that there is a low standard deviation on FT% across college basketball teams and not that the rate of making them doesn't matter. This is true in many statistics in sports played at the highest levels.

[FairWeatherEagle]

I think it depends on how you look at this.  It's fair to say that an incremental improvement in any single fundamental aspect of the game is unlikely to change the result of any particular game or materially change a team's record over the course of the season.  It's also true that a missed layup in the opening minute is just as big of a missed opportunity as missing the front of a 1-1 when the score is tied in the final minute.  But you have to acknowledge that regardless of how you got to that point, in close games a losing team will always try to foul to send the other team to the line to stop the clock and hope they miss free throws in order to generate more possessions.  Having excellent FT shooters who can convert in these pressure situations to close out a game (as Joplin thankfully did) is truly valuable at this time of the year and takes on greater importance (yes, ask Texas A&M and Baylor).  Looking at aggregated data over a longer time period without placing a premium on this situational aspect ignores this.  In addition, FT% should actually be given greater value as a statistic because it is one of the rare things in basketball that can be viewed as largely independent of other factors.  For example, turnovers, field goal %, and rebounding are often highly dependent on the opponent, lucky bounces, personnel, missed calls, and other circumstantial factors that diminish their value.  Finally, aside from whether this is actually a problem for Marquette or any other team, cherry picking certain teams that are not good at FTs but still win a lot of games is like pointing out a successful person with a history of alcohol abuse and saying it proves that alcoholism has no bearing on your career prospects.

You made some good points.

[Jockey]

No. They don't. Games are decided by what occurs over the course of 40 minutes. People place outsized  importance on the last two minutes of close games because it's the last thing to occur during the game...during "crunch time"... so it is the last thing we remember.

But there are many times during games where an easy shot is missed...a bad turnover occurs...a defensive rebound is mishandled, etc. Those are just as important, if not more, to what "decides" a game than free throws in the last two minutes.

There's a reason that in any close NFL games, they always give the stat for how many times a QB has led a winning drive in the last 2 minutes of a game.

That doesn't mean they are minimizing every thing that happened earlier and those effects, but talent is spread enough so there are so many close games. The plays made or missed in the last 2 minutes have an outsized effect.

[tower912]

How many MU losses this season were due at least partially to missed free throws, in your (universal your, not just Jockey) opinion?

[The Sultan]

There's a reason that in any close NFL games, they always give the stat for how many times a QB has led a winning drive in the last 2 minutes of a game.

Ignoring the fact that basketball is not football, it's largely because people like you fall for the nonsense.

[Jay Bee]

In fact, I would venture that FT % is one of the most important factors when it comes to results of games decided by 5 points is less.

Lol. No. You can say it, but nah

[frozena pizza]

How many MU losses this season were due at least partially to missed free throws, in your (universal your, not just Jockey) opinion?

9

[StillAWarrior]

There's a reason that in any close NFL games, they always give the stat for how many times a QB has led a winning drive in the last 2 minutes of a game.

That doesn't mean they are minimizing every thing that happened earlier and those effects, but talent is spread enough so there are so many close games. The plays made or missed in the last 2 minutes have an outsized effect.

Ignoring the fact that basketball is not football, it's largely because people like you fall for the nonsense.

That stat tells you something about the QB. Honestly, I would think a stat that BB Player X shoots 94% free throws in the final minute of close games would tell you something meaningful about what to expect if Player X goes to the line late in a close game. But I don't think it would tell you anything meaningful about whether or not FTs matta generally.

[jfp61]

Grandpa type of conversation going on.

[tower912]

LOL.   Maybe Seton Hall.  One of two one possession losses. In the other, MU shot 10-11 against Purdue.  The Boilermakers 53%.  The other 7 losses were large enough that free throws made no difference.

[Jay Bee]

Grandpa type of conversation going on.

So, age appropriate, aina? Remember, this is Scoop

[The Sultan]

That stat tells you something about the QB. Honestly, I would think a stat that BB Player X shoots 94% free throws in the final minute of close games would tell you something meaningful about what to expect if Player X goes to the line late in a close game. But I don't think it would tell you anything meaningful about whether or not FTs matta generally.

That is a fair point. There are certain people who you WANT on the foul line no doubt. Just like there are certain quarterbacks you would feel comfortable quarterbacking your team.

But that doesn't mean that free throws in the last two minutes, or two minutes drives, are what decides the game.

[frozena pizza]

Well, I was reading it literally since in each of our 9 losses we had missed free throws.  By definition, each loss was "due at least partially to missed free throws" since making them would have gotten us closer to winning.  Of course, losing by 28 to UConn with 2 misses at the line doesn't really make me think that is a major issue.  I would agree with the statement that missing free throws was not the sole reason for any loss this year, or in any game ever, for that matter.

[NickelDimer]

This thread being way hotter than the one discussing the sweet 16 opponent is...something

[Uncle Rico]

This thread being way hotter than the one discussing the sweet 16 opponent is...something

Is it?