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Author Topic: Kolek Update  (Read 95600 times)

barfolomew

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Re: Kolek Update
« Reply #75 on: March 01, 2024, 01:21:37 PM »
A win without Kolek tomorrow would epitomize the culture Shaka has built in the last few years. A loss and it’s just about getting healthy and moving on to the next recalling the Enola Gay and getting Bruce Willis up on that asteroid.

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StillAWarrior

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Re: Kolek Update
« Reply #76 on: March 01, 2024, 01:30:53 PM »
Marquette being a 3.5 point underdog tells me Vegas expects Kolek to be out.

As others have said, that number is about where I would have expected it if Kolek is playing. I suspect Vegas, like the rest of us, hasn't heard very much.
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CTWarrior

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Re: Kolek Update
« Reply #77 on: March 01, 2024, 01:40:09 PM »
With the exception of Amadou and Lowery, every player has brought the ball up and started the offense this season.    I want TKo back and think his presence/absence could be the difference against Creighton and UConn. Because those two teams are really freaking good.   And MU might not have won WITH him.   
    MU without him is good enough to beat a lot of other teams.

Heal quickly, young man.
I wish I had the confidence of others on this board.  I don't like our chances in any of our remaining games, including at Xavier, without Kolek.  We regularly are outscored whenever he takes a break.  Shaka was playing him max minutes for a reason.
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bradforster

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Re: Kolek Update
« Reply #78 on: March 01, 2024, 01:41:40 PM »
As others have said, that number is about where I would have expected it if Kolek is playing. I suspect Vegas, like the rest of us, hasn't heard very much.

I think the exact opposite.  The fact Creighton is favored by only 3.5 would lead me to believe he's more likely to play than not. Creighton, with a healthy Kolek, is a three to four point favorite at home.   Often when a star player's status is in doubt, the line isn't posted until the day of the game.  This one is interesting.

The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole

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Re: Kolek Update
« Reply #79 on: March 01, 2024, 01:42:56 PM »
I think the exact opposite.  The fact Creighton is favored by only 3.5 would lead me to believe he's more likely to play than not. Creighton, with a healthy Kolek, is a three to four point favorite at home.   Often when a star player's status is in doubt, the line isn't posted until the day of the game.  This one is interesting.

Vegas doesn't know anything about his status.
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MUbiz

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Re: Kolek Update
« Reply #80 on: March 01, 2024, 01:50:26 PM »
I think the exact opposite.  The fact Creighton is favored by only 3.5 would lead me to believe he's more likely to play than not. Creighton, with a healthy Kolek, is a three to four point favorite at home.   Often when a star player's status is in doubt, the line isn't posted until the day of the game.  This one is interesting.

This is not how Vegas works. Vegas is making the spread assuming Tyler will play, but not knowing if he will for certain.  If Tyler is announced out before the game, the line will change before the game. How much?  We do not know, but you can assume Tyler is worth 1-2 points on the line.

bradforster

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Re: Kolek Update
« Reply #81 on: March 01, 2024, 02:00:10 PM »
This is not how Vegas works. Vegas is making the spread assuming Tyler will play, but not knowing if he will for certain.  If Tyler is announced out before the game, the line will change before the game. How much?  We do not know, but you can assume Tyler is worth 1-2 points on the line.

My guess is the line moves at least two points.  Hopefully, we don't have to find out.

lawdog77

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Re: Kolek Update
« Reply #82 on: March 01, 2024, 02:02:59 PM »
Vegas doesn't know anything about his status.
Is Matt Mortenson still on the team?

CAGASS24

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Re: Kolek Update
« Reply #83 on: March 01, 2024, 02:04:45 PM »
My guess is the line moves at least two points.  Hopefully, we don't have to find out.

As an aside, bit surprised there hasnt been some sort of an alert on this injury posted to any of the national sites - we're talking about a legit Natty Contender potentially being without their all American for a period of time leading into the Tourney - youd think that would get some coverage

Dr. Blackheart

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Re: Kolek Update
« Reply #84 on: March 01, 2024, 02:09:54 PM »
As an aside, bit surprised there hasnt been some sort of an alert on this injury posted to any of the national sites - we're talking about a legit Natty Contender potentially being without their all American for a period of time leading into the Tourney - youd think that would get some coverage

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milwaukee ex-pat

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Re: Kolek Update
« Reply #85 on: March 01, 2024, 02:11:20 PM »
My guess is the line moves at least two points.  Hopefully, we don't have to find out.

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MUbiz

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Re: Kolek Update
« Reply #86 on: March 01, 2024, 02:16:39 PM »
As an aside, bit surprised there hasnt been some sort of an alert on this injury posted to any of the national sites - we're talking about a legit Natty Contender potentially being without their all American for a period of time leading into the Tourney - youd think that would get some coverage

Tyler's injury is only being posted on degenerate gambling sites at this point, but there is no insider information obviously: https://www.donbest.com/ncaab/injuries

There is no formal injury or load management process like the NBA or NFL has, so it makes sense nothing will come from the team or media until shootaround before the game.


brewcity77

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Re: Kolek Update
« Reply #87 on: March 01, 2024, 02:18:13 PM »
I would've expected Marquette to be favored or at the very least a pickem with Kolek at 100%.

Creighton has lost to Butler and Nova at home and a shorthanded Providence that we just handled.

Yeah...no chance of that. Pomeroy has us +4 and that assumes full health. We were always going to be an underdog in this game.
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bradforster

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Re: Kolek Update
« Reply #88 on: March 01, 2024, 02:23:09 PM »
Yeah...no chance of that. Pomeroy has us +4 and that assumes full health. We were always going to be an underdog in this game.

This is 100% correct!

MUbiz

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Re: Kolek Update
« Reply #89 on: March 01, 2024, 02:35:52 PM »
The line opened at CU -3.5 and 30 min or so later is -4.5. There are many bettors out there who think Kolek is not playing tomorrow.

auburnmarquette

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Re: Kolek Update
« Reply #90 on: March 01, 2024, 02:43:20 PM »
Agreed, 3.5 is the Ken pom prediction.

Formula is he believes Marquette is 0.16 points better than Creighton per 100 possessions so say 0.1 for 70 possession game.

Crieghtons home advantage is 3.3 and marquettes road disadvantage is 3.7, so those average 3.5

3.5 + 0.1 is Creighton by 3.6 so Vegas put it as 3 1-2 but pomeroy uses round numbers so rounds to 4.

The shift to -4.5 is people assuming he is out - and hate to be "that guy" repeating rumors but one student said out rest of regular season. Hope not but I would assume so - just because pitchers miss 2 months with that injury - but I have no medical experience. Assume basketball players get back much faster but need him healed up for the big dance this year and silver lining is seeing if Norman can play 20 minutes and Chase can play 35.
« Last Edit: March 01, 2024, 02:44:51 PM by auburnmarquette »
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MUMountin

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Re: Kolek Update
« Reply #91 on: March 01, 2024, 02:47:46 PM »
As an aside, bit surprised there hasnt been some sort of an alert on this injury posted to any of the national sites - we're talking about a legit Natty Contender potentially being without their all American for a period of time leading into the Tourney - youd think that would get some coverage

It will get more coverage, but as others have noted, there just isn't enough information for them to go off of.  Most game reports on Wednesday mentioned that he was injured, but there's been minimal news for them to make any more speculation at this time.  Eye on College Basketball Podcast had a few brief mentions in their game preview, but even that was pretty limited based on how little info is out there.  If he misses the game on Saturday, you can bet that there will be more national coverage on Monday, especially leading into the big game against UConn, b/c there will be more to know. 

This is also likely at least partially because of the type of injury--its not like a clear knee or other leg injury where it is often easy to make good educated guesses about the nature/severity from the video and potential to be season-ending.  It was fairly subtle and could be something deemed relatively minor, even if has the potential to be niggling.  And, even as time goes on, it is one that will be tough to gauge when he'll be over it; you can bet that MU will stay tight lipped about it until at least after the X game. 

muwarrior69

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Re: Kolek Update
« Reply #92 on: March 01, 2024, 02:49:50 PM »

PointWarrior

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Re: Kolek Update
« Reply #93 on: March 01, 2024, 02:56:29 PM »
Marketing Dept sucks


As an aside, bit surprised there hasnt been some sort of an alert on this injury posted to any of the national sites - we're talking about a legit Natty Contender potentially being without their all American for a period of time leading into the Tourney - youd think that would get some coverage

Mu8891

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Re: Kolek Update
« Reply #94 on: March 01, 2024, 03:14:38 PM »
Auburn …
So , u don’t want to be “ that guy “ … and then you spread a baseless rumor from “ a student “

Get lost.

BallBoy

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Re: Kolek Update
« Reply #95 on: March 01, 2024, 03:15:15 PM »
Interesting way of telling everyone here you don't understand NCAA seeding.

Interesting take that a currently projected 7 or 8 true seed loses 4 straight games couldn’t possibly drop down 8 or 9 true seed lines. Throw in the fact people vote on those true seeds and emotions/eye test comes into play and it is easy they fall one extra seedline best player is out.

Here is this very topic discussed last year by the chair of the selection committee.  Not only will the have the tourney to evaluate but three other games of which we would have lost all 4. 

https://youtu.be/R_q9OreCh-I?feature=shared


BM1090

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Re: Kolek Update
« Reply #96 on: March 01, 2024, 03:22:46 PM »
Interesting take that a currently projected 7 or 8 true seed loses 4 straight games couldn’t possibly drop down 8 or 9 true seed lines. Throw in the fact people vote on those true seeds and emotions/eye test comes into play and it is easy they fall one extra seedline best player is out.

Here is this very topic discussed last year by the chair of the selection committee.  Not only will the have the tourney to evaluate but three other games of which we would have lost all 4. 

https://youtu.be/R_q9OreCh-I?feature=shared

Our seed isn’t going to plummet losing two Q1A games and another Q1 game.

No matter how the next three go, we’re not going to get dinged that much IMO. Plus we’re significantly ahead of the teams on the 4 line.

BallBoy

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Re: Kolek Update
« Reply #97 on: March 01, 2024, 03:33:07 PM »
Our seed isn’t going to plummet losing two Q1A games and another Q1 game.

No matter how the next three go, we’re not going to get dinged that much IMO. Plus we’re significantly ahead of the teams on the 4 line.

But then you get 1 more loss after that which could be a Q1 or could be lower.  Making 4 straight losses and plenty to evaluate the resume with Tyler.

BM1090

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Re: Kolek Update
« Reply #98 on: March 01, 2024, 03:43:56 PM »
But then you get 1 more loss after that which could be a Q1 or could be lower.  Making 4 straight losses and plenty to evaluate the resume with Tyler.

I don't think it really matters. After the top 15 or so, Marquette's resume would likely be better than anyone below them even if they lose all four.

And it'd be weird for the committee to take his injury that much into account if he was expected to be back. If he's announced done for the year? Then it may be a problem.

mugrad_89

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Re: Kolek Update
« Reply #99 on: March 01, 2024, 03:44:45 PM »
It’s good to see COLE is back on the board in force.  👀