[Paint Touches] MU's Surprising Offensive Struggles

[PaintTouches]

Been focusing on 1 specific number the past week, and Saturday's loss really cemented it. For as much as I've talked about hitting open 3s, the biggest issue for MU is actually inside the arc.

https://painttouches.com/2024/01/09/marquettes-surprising-offensive-struggles/

[DoctorV]

Very nice, as always Andrei.

Now, let's discuss the cause and remedy.

Opposition defenses included two in the top 20 in KenPom- Providence at 4 and Creighton at 19- and two outside the top 75 with SH at 82 and Gtown at infinity.
Two roadies and two home games.

It's been already mentioned on here before but I'll start with possible causes, outside of the obvious 'just a bad offensive 4 game stretch.'

- Worse floor spacing?
- Less TyKo on the ball?
- Connectivity issues or effort issues?

The eye test makes it seem pretty obvious that the big 3 aren't as connected offensively, it seems like there have been substantially fewer easy buckets at the rim.

Solutions:
A little more GTST Buzz Williams style?
A reversion back to more Tyler on the ball and pick and rolls with Oso?

Hopefully this leads to good discussion and suggestions.

I'm pretty excited about tomorrow because I want to see how this team rebounds at home and I was to see that elite offense again.
I was certain this years team would be a top 5, if not top 3 offense....
Let's see it.

[Jay Bee]

Let's take it back to June...

2FG% is where my concerns lie.

Kolek at 51% I don't see flying way higher. Kam at 64.3% was insane. Can't expect that again. Jop 45.5% with room to improve... but not to OMax levels which is where some minutes will come from...Oso at 66.0%.. again, not going to expect him to beat that.. with more usage, expanded range.. would probably project this to fall a bit tbh.. OMax 62.4% is gone.. can Gold pick some of that up? Probably.. but..  then you've got Stevie at 54.5%, Chase 57.1%.. hard to find bad numbers / easy comps anywhere .. but Kam, Oso, Omax comps.. all tough.

Just need to have great games in March. #pray

[CTWarrior]

Seems to me teams are packing it in, making it harder to get the good shots close to the basket on the interior pocket pass.  They can afford to do it as long as we don't make them pay from three.

[Dr. Blackheart]

Let's take it back to June...

Just need to have great games in March. #pray

Bingo.

[Goose]

JayBee and Dr. B

It really is that simple.

[Dr. Blackheart]

JayBee and Dr. B

It really is that simple.

I'd saw it goes back to last March. Shaka is now on his 6th and 7th+ time through the conference. Defenses have adjusted to our personnel.

And as we all agree, the perimeter shots are wide open. But, if the personnel can't make those shots consistently, perhaps it's time to adjust to the shots they can make?  Waiting till March for a miracle may be Fools' Gold?

[MU82]

Seems to me teams are packing it in, making it harder to get the good shots close to the basket on the interior pocket pass.  They can afford to do it as long as we don't make them pay from three.

This. Our stats from 2 might shock Paint Touches, but the root of the problem is our inability to hit 3s. If we get hot (or even just respectable) from 3, the defense either will leave the paint to defend us or pay the price.

[PaintTouches]

This. Our stats from 2 might shock Paint Touches, but the root of the problem is our inability to hit 3s. If we get hot (or even just respectable) from 3, the defense either will leave the paint to defend us or pay the price.

First 11 games (5 games against top-40 Ds): 26.2 shots per game within 5 feet, hit 64.7%.
Last 4 games (2 games against top-40 Ds): 27 shots per game within 5 feet, hit 55.6%.

As much as the narrative has stuck, MU is getting very similar shots it hit at over 60% against similar quality opposition over an 11 game stretch this season. Yes, I am pretty shocked they are now shooting under 46%. 

[Shooter McGavin]

I'd saw it goes back to last March. Shaka is now on his 6th and 7th+ time through the conference. Defenses have adjusted to our personnel.

And as we all agree, the perimeter shots are wide open. But, if the personnel can't make those shots consistently, perhaps it's time to adjust to the shots they can make?  Waiting till March for a miracle may be Fools' Gold?

Just out of curiosity what shots should they take in your opinion?  I really don't know the answer.  If they can't make open shots from three or layups at the rim then they are simply a mediocre team with mediocre talent, adjustments or no adjustments.

[Goose]

Dr. B

We have seen Fools' Gold in the past, you sense a similar vibe? If so, I'm guessing my +2200 ticket might go in the trash, hey?

[Dr. Blackheart]

Just out of curiosity what shots should they take in your opinion?  I really don't know the answer.  If they can't make open shots from three or layups at the rim then they are simply a mediocre team with mediocre talent, adjustments or no adjustments.

I've posted my thoughts on this back weeks ago if you are interested in my take so I won't keep repeating it here to the ire of others for beating a dead horse. And it is a dead horse as Shaka is a systems guy (see Nevada's recent interview) who fully believes in letting his players create in the 5 out offense without a ton of set plays (with good reason as it is fun to play and watch).

However, your biggest strength is your biggest weakness as we've seen. And the free throw line extended is that inflection point where opposing defenses are using hybrid defenses to jam that dribble penetration. Every time Kolek started his drive going left, for example,  the Hall was slide two or three defenders along that line. No different than Izzo's matchup defense or the Badgers pack line or a man-zone hybrid.

[Newsdreams]

I've posted my thoughts on this back weeks ago if you are interested in my take so I won't keep repeating it here to the ire of others for beating a dead horse. And it is a dead horse as Shaka is a systems guy (see Nevada's recent interview) who fully believes in letting his players create in the 5 out offense without a ton of set plays (with good reason as it is fun to play and watch).

However, your biggest strength is your biggest weakness as we've seen. And the free throw line extended is that inflection point where opposing defenses are using hybrid defenses to jam that dribble penetration. Every time Kolek started his drive going left, for example,  the Hall was slide two or three defenders along that line. No different than Izzo's matchup defense or the Badgers pack line or a man-zone hybrid.

You know it doc, got to make open shots...

[Shooter McGavin]

You know it doc, got to make open shots...

That would be a good adjustment Newsie.

[Shooter McGavin]

I've posted my thoughts on this back weeks ago if you are interested in my take so I won't keep repeating it here to the ire of others for beating a dead horse. And it is a dead horse as Shaka is a systems guy (see Nevada's recent interview) who fully believes in letting his players create in the 5 out offense without a ton of set plays (with good reason as it is fun to play and watch).

However, your biggest strength is your biggest weakness as we've seen. And the free throw line extended is that inflection point where opposing defenses are using hybrid defenses to jam that dribble penetration. Every time Kolek started his drive going left, for example,  the Hall was slide two or three defenders along that line. No different than Izzo's matchup defense or the Badgers pack line or a man-zone hybrid.

I'll try to look back. 

We'll see if the rest of the league follows suit and can start beating MU at home as well. 

Hopefully, our offensive savant on the bench can figure this out and the team plays with a little more urgency.  Lots of good coaches in this league.  I'm sure they will have seen the strategy. 

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

First 11 games (5 games against top-40 Ds): 26.2 shots per game within 5 feet, hit 64.7%.
Last 4 games (2 games against top-40 Ds): 27 shots per game within 5 feet, hit 55.6%.

As much as the narrative has stuck, MU is getting very similar shots it hit at over 60% against similar quality opposition over an 11 game stretch this season. Yes, I am pretty shocked they are now shooting under 46%.

Not all shots within 5 feet are created equal.  I think packing the paint is the issue and the % has gone down because we are having to force highly contested shots at the rim

[wisblue]

First 11 games (5 games against top-40 Ds): 26.2 shots per game within 5 feet, hit 64.7%.
Last 4 games (2 games against top-40 Ds): 27 shots per game within 5 feet, hit 55.6%.

As much as the narrative has stuck, MU is getting very similar shots it hit at over 60% against similar quality opposition over an 11 game stretch this season. Yes, I am pretty shocked they are now shooting under 46%.

My reaction to that is that not all shots within 5 feet of the basket are the same. If you are combining dunks and clear layups with contested shots where a player driving to the basket is fading away from the hoop or has to shoot over a rim protector, obviously some of those shots have significantly higher percentages than others.

That difference of 10% success over 25-30 shots is going to make a difference of 4-6 points a game and can easily mean the difference between winning and losing.

To make up that difference MU has to either make more of those open 3 point shots they are being given, find a way to get more of the high percentage two point shots, or make improvements in defense and rebounding.

I'm not sure if MU has the talent to do any of those things, so the end result might be that instead of a team that can be 17-3 in the conference they will be closer to 12-8, and instead of a 2 seed in the NCAA they will be in the 6-9 range.

It also seems that, as a group, the teams in the conference may be a little stronger than last year. Butler, Villanova, St. John's, and Seton Hall are all going to be more difficult to sweep. Only Xavier has taken a step back, and they may be  significantly improved by the time MU faces them for the first time in late February.

Let's see how it plays out, starting tonight. But, at this point it is my opinion that expectations for the team coming into the season might have been too optimistic.

[Shooter McGavin]

I think you've hit the nail on the head.  If our players can't hit threes and open up the lane for sagging defenses therefore getting better shots at the rim, then maybe the team is simply not talented enough.  They may be only a 6th seed.  And in most years that would be good.   This year the expectations were higher because of last year and proof of concept from Shaka.  It's entirely possible this team played well over their heads last year, no one scouted them until MSU, Shaka miscalculated on the self scout and the RGV concept needs better talent to work.

Many discussions before the season included thoughts that we could lose many more games and still be better than last year. That could still be true as well.  Maybe the Big East will be such a slog that MU will be relieved to be in the NCAA tournament just like UConn was last year.  It seems like the sheer size of guards and forwards in the Big East is wearing MU down and frustrating the hell out of them.  Tyler Kolek is used to getting a certain whistle when almost knocked off his feet. It seems he is not getting that whistle in the first several Big East games.

Tyler, Oso, Kam and health are the keys to find out the answers to these questions. They have to play consistently well.  We'll find out soon enough if they are as good as their preseason expectations.  I think/hope they are. 

[The Sultan]

I think you've hit the nail on the head.  If our players can't hit threes and open up the lane for sagging defenses therefore getting better shots at the rim, then maybe the team is simply not talented enough.

Unfortunately, this is where I am starting to fall. I have said this in the past, but I think our offensive system is absolutely working fine. I don't have the data to back this up, but it seems like we are getting really good looks from where we want them. (In the paint, corner 3s, etc.)

But our inability to consistently hit threes is absolutely killing this team. Kam, Tyler and Jop are actually hitting them at rates similar to last year. But no one else is consistently.  And this leads me to a weird paradox with regards to our recruiting - it doesn't seem like Shaka values shooting enough.  It's been said here that both Markus and Sam wouldn't have been recruited by this regime.  If that's the case, that's an enormous mistake because both of them would KILL in this offense.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Even with his 0/3 against Seton Hall, Gold is still shooting a respectable ~35% from deep. Sean, Stevie, and Chase are the three that are hurting us from three. Sean and Stevie have both shown improvement in the past two so let's hope that's a new norm.

I'll also say that Jop doesn't hit open threes at a rate that a shooter of his caliber should. He's almost better guarded than unguarded which is baffling

[The Sultan]

Even with his 0/3 against Seton Hall, Gold is still shooting a respectable ~35% from deep. Sean, Stevie, and Chase are the three that are hurting us from three. Sean and Stevie have both shown improvement in the past two so let's hope that's a new norm.

Good point on Ben, but the problem is he gives it all back on the defensive end.

[murara1994]

My reaction to that is that not all shots within 5 feet of the basket are the same. If you are combining dunks and clear layups with contested shots where a player driving to the basket is fading away from the hoop or has to shoot over a rim protector, obviously some of those shots have significantly higher percentages than others.

That difference of 10% success over 25-30 shots is going to make a difference of 4-6 points a game and can easily mean the difference between winning and losing.

To make up that difference MU has to either make more of those open 3 point shots they are being given, find a way to get more of the high percentage two point shots, or make improvements in defense and rebounding.

I'm not sure if MU has the talent to do any of those things, so the end result might be that instead of a team that can be 17-3 in the conference they will be closer to 12-8, and instead of a 2 seed in the NCAA they will be in the 6-9 range.

It also seems that, as a group, the teams in the conference may be a little stronger than last year. Butler, Villanova, St. John's, and Seton Hall are all going to be more difficult to sweep. Only Xavier has taken a step back, and they may be  significantly improved by the time MU faces them for the first time in late February.

Let's see how it plays out, starting tonight. But, at this point it is my opinion that expectations for the team coming into the season might have been too optimistic.

All good points, but our defense is much much better this year, which also potentially raises the ceiling of the team.

[MU82]

My reaction to that is that not all shots within 5 feet of the basket are the same. If you are combining dunks and clear layups with contested shots where a player driving to the basket is fading away from the hoop or has to shoot over a rim protector, obviously some of those shots have significantly higher percentages than others.

That difference of 10% success over 25-30 shots is going to make a difference of 4-6 points a game and can easily mean the difference between winning and losing.

To make up that difference MU has to either make more of those open 3 point shots they are being given, find a way to get more of the high percentage two point shots, or make improvements in defense and rebounding.

I'm not sure if MU has the talent to do any of those things, so the end result might be that instead of a team that can be 17-3 in the conference they will be closer to 12-8, and instead of a 2 seed in the NCAA they will be in the 6-9 range.

It also seems that, as a group, the teams in the conference may be a little stronger than last year. Butler, Villanova, St. John's, and Seton Hall are all going to be more difficult to sweep. Only Xavier has taken a step back, and they may be  significantly improved by the time MU faces them for the first time in late February.

Let's see how it plays out, starting tonight. But, at this point it is my opinion that expectations for the team coming into the season might have been too optimistic.

Very fair analysis. Thanks for posting it.

Even with his 0/3 against Seton Hall, Gold is still shooting a respectable ~35% from deep. Sean, Stevie, and Chase are the three that are hurting us from three. Sean and Stevie have both shown improvement in the past two so let's hope that's a new norm.

I'll also say that Jop doesn't hit open threes at a rate that a shooter of his caliber should. He's almost better guarded than unguarded which is baffling

Kam's struggles (25% from behind the arc) the last 6 games have been magnified. He's has missed a surprising number of wide-open looks. Kolek is at 31% over the same stretch.

A return to norm for those two (and yes, Joplin) would go a long way toward solving some of this.   

[barfolomew]

Good point on Ben, but the problem is he gives it all back on the defensive end.

I think it's a mistake for the staff to ask Ben to hedge as hard as he does.
Good at stopping the reverse dribble, but seems like he is out of position for the rest of the possession.

[mu_eyeballs]

"Kam's struggles (25% from behind the arc) the last 6 games have been magnified. He's has missed a surprising number of wide-open looks. Kolek is at 31% over the same stretch. "

THIS 100% a 'normal' KAM and we never go down to Hall.