2023-2024 College Basketball Thread

[brewcity77]

Which league is better?  The worst team is West Virginia who is 135 in KenPom.  That ain’t good, but the top 12 teams are 72 or better.  From a depth standpoint, no league is better.

The argument is that systems like kenpom and the NET are gamed by the B12 blowing out Q4 cupcakes but being mediocre against non-con opponents. Teams like BYU, Iowa State, Cincinnati, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas Tech, and TCU are all top-40 NET and in the mix for bids, but largely because they played 8+ Q4 games to get there and now are able to build up their Q1/2 resume in conference because everyone is overrated.

Does it have merit? Maybe. But they did have to beat those cupcakes in metrically efficient fashion that other leagues did not match. Ultimately, March will be what decides if they're overrated or not.

[Uncle Rico]

The argument is that systems like kenpom and the NET are gamed by the B12 blowing out Q4 cupcakes but being mediocre against non-con opponents. Teams like BYU, Iowa State, Cincinnati, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas Tech, and TCU are all top-40 NET and in the mix for bids, but largely because they played 8+ Q4 games to get there and now are able to build up their Q1/2 resume in conference because everyone is overrated.

Does it have merit? Maybe. But they did have to beat those cupcakes in metrically efficient fashion that other leagues did not match. Ultimately, March will be what decides if they're overrated or not.

Forget the metrics for a moment, but this is one instance where the eye test makes me believe this is the best league. 

Could they flame out in March?  Sure.  The SEC could put 5 teams in the Sweet 16.  Wouldn’t make them the best league for the season.

[MuggsyB]

I'm really hoping Houston and Kansas continue to rack up losses.  It's still early but it looks like two #1 seeds are in play.  UNC plays in a awful conf (which may help them) but if tbe B12 stays bunched up I think that could help our cause.  Our battles with UCONN coming up have a chance of being absolutely epic. Believe me the intensity will be there from our guys.

[Shooter McGavin]

Virginia was pretty much a consensus first 4 team before todays game. And Miami has been trash.

And Virginia lost to ND which is almost impossible to do if you are a good team.

But teams get better over the course of a season.  So who knows?   

[MU82]

And Virginia lost to ND which is almost impossible to do if you are a good team.

Yeah, when I saw that score that night, I just assumed that Bennett had one of his worst (if not the worst) teams.

[Uncle Rico]

Yeah, when I saw that score that night, I just assumed that Bennett had one of his worst (if not the worst) teams.

Teams can improve dramatically as a season goes along

[MU82]

Teams can improve dramatically as a season goes along

Oh definitely. And in this case, Virginia obviously has.

I mean, Kentucky lost at home to UNC-Wilmington, which means nothing today.

But at that moment, when I saw that score, I was like, "Whaaaaat?"

[Shooter McGavin]

Yeah, when I saw that score that night, I just assumed that Bennett had one of his worst (if not the worst) teams.

I loved the MU fans boos when MU gave up that first ND basket this year.  Pretty funny.

[Shooter McGavin]

Teams can improve dramatically as a season goes along

I did edit my original post to say that Rico.  It was just such a bad loss though.

[Uncle Rico]

I did edit my original post to say that Rico.  It was just such a bad loss though.

It was.  Virginia was bad to start the year.  Let’s see how they finish

[MU82]

I loved the MU fans boos when MU gave up that first ND basket this year.  Pretty funny.

That was a fun game to go to ... though it actually became a little boring in the second half because MU started playing down to ND's very, very, very low level.

Looking forward to Saturday. Fiserv will be rockin'!

[brewcity77]

Forget the metrics for a moment, but this is one instance where the eye test makes me believe this is the best league. 

Could they flame out in March?  Sure.  The SEC could put 5 teams in the Sweet 16.  Wouldn’t make them the best league for the season.

And this is basically the age-old debate. Is the Big 12 gaming the metrics and their teams are just close enough to each other that they're always competitive games (fueling the eye test), even if the teams aren't actually as good as the metrics indicate? What if they end up with one team in the Sweet 16 and none beyond that while the ACC gets 3 in the Elite 8 and a team in the Final Four, with those ACC teams accounting for 4 eliminations of B12 teams along the way? We'll get back to the "Big 12 did it when it didn't matter, ACC proved it when it did" that always drives these debates.

I think the best measure is non-conference high-major vs high-major records. But I haven't found a site that has that broken down (I'm sure it's somewhere), and I don't have the time or inclination to calculate it myself.

Ultimately, I'm just looking at it as data points from a bracketology perspective, but it's easy to be skeptical of some of those B12 teams when you look at how they did in non-con play factoring out the Q4 opposition.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

I think the best measure is non-conference high-major vs high-major records. But I haven't found a site that has that broken down (I'm sure it's somewhere), and I don't have the time or inclination to calculate it myself.

I got you fam

https://www.colleyrankings.com/hcurconf.html

Big 12 dominated the SEC, had winning records against the B1G and P12, split with BEast, and got dominated by the ACC. But the ACC got dominated by the SEC who got dominated byv the B12 so it depends on matchups.

[MuggsyB]

I think getting a top 4 seed definitely improves you chances of advancing in the tournament.  Especially in the rd of 64.  That said the parity is truly amazing right now.  No one basically picked FAU or SDSU to make the F4 last year.  We could have another year where a few teams come out of nowhere.

[lawdog77]

I got you fam

https://www.colleyrankings.com/hcurconf.html

Big 12 dominated the SEC, had winning records against the B1G and P12, split with BEast, and got dominated by the ACC. But the ACC got dominated by the SEC who got dominated byv the B12 so it depends on matchups.

Nice site, but I think his percentages may be off

[MU82]

I think getting a top 4 seed definitely improves you chances of advancing in the tournament.  Especially in the rd of 64.  That said the parity is truly amazing right now.  No one basically picked FAU or SDSU to make the F4 last year.  We could have another year where a few teams come out of nowhere.

Part of me says, "Forget about everything that happened in last year's NCAAT. It was such an outlier." But then part of me says, "Maybe that's just the way things are gonna be more times than not in this transfer portal and NIL era."

The NCAAT is always fascinating and fun for numerous reasons, but seeing if we have a real trend going will be one of the more fascinating things this year.

[MuggsyB]

Part of me says, "Forget about everything that happened in last year's NCAAT. It was such an outlier." But then part of me says, "Maybe that's just the way things are gonna be more times than not in this transfer portal and NIL era."

The NCAAT is always fascinating and fun for numerous reasons, but seeing if we have a real trend going will be one of the more fascinating things this year.

I'm a little worried the powers that be are gonna fk up the tournament at some point.  The truth is (outside of rooting for MU) the smaller schools and early upsets play a huge role in the fun of the event.  If the super conferences insist on changing things because of money it's going to be a horrible day and future for  true college hoop fans. 

[Uncle Rico]

And this is basically the age-old debate. Is the Big 12 gaming the metrics and their teams are just close enough to each other that they're always competitive games (fueling the eye test), even if the teams aren't actually as good as the metrics indicate? What if they end up with one team in the Sweet 16 and none beyond that while the ACC gets 3 in the Elite 8 and a team in the Final Four, with those ACC teams accounting for 4 eliminations of B12 teams along the way? We'll get back to the "Big 12 did it when it didn't matter, ACC proved it when it did" that always drives these debates.

I think the best measure is non-conference high-major vs high-major records. But I haven't found a site that has that broken down (I'm sure it's somewhere), and I don't have the time or inclination to calculate it myself.

Ultimately, I'm just looking at it as data points from a bracketology perspective, but it's easy to be skeptical of some of those B12 teams when you look at how they did in non-con play factoring out the Q4 opposition.

I think that’s all fair. 

Think the Big XII has the best collection of coaches outside maybe the Big East.  Bullish on Texas Tech because I think Grant McCasland is the real deal.  Same with Wes Miller at Cincinnati.

[brewcity77]

I got you fam

https://www.colleyrankings.com/hcurconf.html

Big 12 dominated the SEC, had winning records against the B1G and P12, split with BEast, and got dominated by the ACC. But the ACC got dominated by the SEC who got dominated byv the B12 so it depends on matchups.

Thanks! I think the five leagues worth considering are the Big 12, Big East, SEC, Big 10, and ACC. The Pac-12 just isn't that good this year and the Mountain West has some nice teams but aren't on that level. Using that site, the cumulative between these five...

Big 12: 25-22
Winning Percentage: 0.532
Average Games/Team: 3.36

Big East: 23-21
Winning Percentage: 0.523
Average Games/Team: 4.00

SEC: 31-29
Winning Percentage: 0.517
Average Games/Team: 4.29

ACC: 26-28
Winning Percentage: 0.481
Average Games/Team: 3.60

Big 10: 18-23
Winning Percentage: 0.439
Average Games/Team: 2.93

The margin between the Big 12, Big East, and SEC is minimal. For instance, had the Big East or SEC won just one more game, they would be at the top of the WP% instead of the Big 12. But the question comes in where the Big 12 scheduled so few of these games (and the Big 10, which Field of 68 ranked ahead of the Big East yesterday).

Also, everyone has their dogs, but there is only one sub-225 NET team in all of these leagues, and that is #314 DePaul. If you removed DePaul, the Big East would go to 22-17, easily the best WP% at .564, with the Big 12 the only other league that had a winning record at 0.522, so it's safe to say the Blue Demons are a drag on the league in this regard.

[MU90620]

That was a fun game to go to ... though it actually became a little boring in the second half because MU started playing down to ND's very, very, very low level.

Looking forward to Saturday. Fiserv will be rockin'!

I actually think that second half is what put us into our funk. Played very sloppy and I think some bad habits creeped in. Nothing catastrophic, but we definitely needed to recalibrate. We got a little loose for a few games.

[HowardsWorld]

Are there any mid majors that jump out as having a chance to win a game or two in the tournament. I would honestly rather see them get a shot than a team like Steon Hall or Butler get a 9/10 seed and bounced right away.

[Uncle Rico]

Are there any mid majors that jump out as having a chance to win a game or two in the tournament. I would honestly rather see them get a shot than a team like Steon Hall or Butler get a 9/10 seed and bounced right away.

Indiana State for sure, maybe Drake out of the Valley. 

Mountain West is deep this year

[Scoop Snoop]

Are there any mid majors that jump out as having a chance to win a game or two in the tournament. I would honestly rather see them get a shot than a team like Steon Hall or Butler get a 9/10 seed and bounced right away.

I get what you are saying, but I would always want a BE team in the tourney in lieu of a team from another conference, even if the BE one gets bounced in the opening round. My dream FF has at least 2 BE teams in it.

[HowardsWorld]

I get what you are saying, but I would always want a BE team in the tourney in lieu of a team from another conference, even if the BE one gets bounced in the opening round. My dream FF has at least 2 BE teams in it.

Well, I can promise you its not going to be Butler or Seton Hall. This year more than ever it could be Marquette/Uconn

[Shooter McGavin]

I'm a little worried the powers that be are gonna fk up the tournament at some point.  The truth is (outside of rooting for MU) the smaller schools and early upsets play a huge role in the fun of the event.  If the super conferences insist on changing things because of money it's going to be a horrible day and future for  true college hoop fans.

This is the gorilla in the corner of the room that people are not acknowledging.  I hope the Big East and the teams in it are considered valuable enough to be a major part of any new iteration of the tournament.