Concerns about the 23-24 team

[dgies9156]

The schedule is a whole lot tougher than anything we have seen in recent years. Plus, the Big East will be better this year with Rick Pitino taking over at St. John's, Ed Cooley reviving Georgetown and Villanova being better. Even DePaul will improve.

Why I'm not terribly worried is last year was a taste of what might be, especially if Tyler Kolek stays healthy. Our guys have some unfinished business from last year that must be handled.

F**k 'em!

[NCMUFan]

UCONN being in the BEAST is motivation enough to have Shaka and the team fire on all cylinders.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

As others have stated, my concern (as much as a top 15 team can have a concern) is defense. We were a mediocre defensive team last season. We have lost our best defender and are likely replacing him in the starting lineup with one of our two worst defenders from last season. Our offense can only get so much better, but our defense can get a lot worse. I love the Jopwagon, but I don't think his defensive ceiling is very high. I wouldn't be shocked if his minutes didn't change much from last season. He'll definitely start but I think his defense may limit how many more minutes he will pick up. I think we could see a heavy does of Chase at the 4 along with some Lowery if he's ready.

[THRILLHO]

Why do you project the offense to be less efficient?   Was last year an outlier?   Less optimistic about incremental improvement?   Does Joplin's likely increased offensive role project to make the offense more 3 heavy and therefore less efficient?  A regression to mean at the rim?

Not JB but I've had similar thoughts looking at the numbers. Just subbing in Jop for OMax, Jop is the better shooter, but OMax was actually more efficient (in lower usage), mainly from making a lot of shots at the rim. If Jop makes our defense worse then our offense will also have less transition opportunities as well. And now your second team lost its volume bucket-getter. So that would be the case for a less efficient offense.

The counterpoint is that Jop's usage rate will go down in more minutes with the first team, and will focus on more efficient shots and receive less defensive attention, allowing his efficiency to increase. And maybe his shooting opens things up for others. Shaka and co will come up with new wrinkles that fit our personnel as they always do. Joplin maybe improves at getting points in the paint.

[MUfan12]

I'm really of the mind that Jop is the guy that can raise or lower this team's ceiling.

My thoughts on him are similar to where I was on Kam going into last season... that it's great they can get hot, but there needed to be major improvement mentally with their approach to the game. Kam really matured after the Ft. Myers tourney. His shot selection was better, his defense improved a ton. If Jop can replicate what Kam did I think this is a Final 4 team.

[DienerTime34]

Honestly, my only concern is being healthy in March. TKO's injured thumb might have been the only thing that stopped us from a S16 appearance this past season.

I'm much less hung up on W/L's, seeding and November/December basketball than I was last season, when I was living and dying on the outcome of every game. We know what these guys can do.

If our squad is 100% good to go come tournament time we are a S16 squad or better.

[Dr. Blackheart]

As to improving offensive efficiency, the 2nd highest correlate for MU is OR%, which is dismal.  I don't see that improving much with the roster or system but...

As to replacing Omax's highly efficient 2pt FG%, who is the dribble penetrator from the seam this year?  Stevie?  Chase? The Frosh? I don't see them being better than OMax so that means that the eFG% improvement has to come from the sum of the parts on treys which there is a lot of room for improvement. Possible.

That said, lots of room for improvement on defense, starting with rebounding. Hard to see with this roster other than Jop. Gold needs to improve greatly here to help. The changes this upcoming season will be interesting to see.

[lawdog77]

I see Gold improving his eFG% by hitting more than 30% of his threes as well as driving to the hoop. If I had to bet, I would say our efg% would be the same or better.

I think Ross improves his 3pt % as well

[GoldenEagles03]

Defense is why I think Chase eats into Joplin's minutes as the season goes on.

All 3 incoming Freshman are elite defenders as well.

Defend or watch the game from the bench. We have plenty of options!

[Its DJOver]

All three Freshman were elite defenders at a lower level.  We don't know where they will be at game 1. Everyone takes a different amount of time to adjust, everyone takes a different amount of time to learn a new system.

[5DollarPitcher]

What a weird thread to start

[The Sultan]

Yeah it is kinda strange to start a topic on the basketball team and actual concerns people may have. 🙄🙄🙄

[brewcity77]

I know we differ here, and it doesn't mean off eff can't improve even with my projection, but I project eFG% to decline from this past season, making a jump in off eff all the more challenging.

I haven't ran all the numbers I did last year that led to my high optimism for an eFG% improvement, but I feel good about us sustaining or improving our eFG%. We showed repeatedly that our 2PFG% was sustainable and another year in the system will only make for more easy looks provided by Kolek and Oso.

More important, I think this is a better shooting team than last year. If Gold returns to health, I like him and Ross to both be notably better long range shooters than they were a year ago. I also think Joplin and Jones can be lethal given the opportunities, and many of those opportunities will come from shots O-Max would've taken.

Even without O-Max, as a team we shot 57.5% from 2 last year. That -0.8% difference still would've been tied for 5th nationally. I like our long range improvement to offset that disparity.

But maybe that's just the optimist in me.

[MU82]

What a weird thread to start

Why?

[JakeBarnes]

All three Freshman were elite defenders at a lower level.  We don't know where they will be at game 1. Everyone takes a different amount of time to adjust, everyone takes a different amount of time to learn a new system.

All 4. But I get it with the RS part for CH.

[The Sultan]

Why?

He likes his safe spaces.

[Vander Blue Man Group]

As to improving offensive efficiency, the 2nd highest correlate for MU is OR%, which is dismal.  I don't see that improving much with the roster or system but...

As to replacing Omax's highly efficient 2pt FG%, who is the dribble penetrator from the seam this year?  Stevie?  Chase? The Frosh? I don't see them being better than OMax so that means that the eFG% improvement has to come from the sum of the parts on treys which there is a lot of room for improvement. Possible.

That said, lots of room for improvement on defense, starting with rebounding. Hard to see with this roster other than Jop. Gold needs to improve greatly here to help. The changes this upcoming season will be interesting to see.

OMax was effective at the rim but I really don't think he created many of those opportunities off the dribble on his own. I think more were in transition or others creating for him.

[Dr. Blackheart]

OMax was effective at the rim but I really don't think he created many of those opportunities off the dribble on his own. I think more were in transition or others creating for him.

Good point on him being a seam sealer.  64.6% of his made shots at the rim were assisted.

[Herman Cain]

This is an interpretation of how positively I feel about this years squad

https://www.instagram.com/reel/CsgsETeo8lc/?igshid=MzRlODBiNWFlZA==

[tower912]

What a weird thread to start

Crapshoot.

[mileskishnish72]

I'm really of the mind that Jop is the guy that can raise or lower this team's ceiling.

My thoughts on him are similar to where I was on Kam going into last season... that it's great they can get hot, but there needed to be major improvement mentally with their approach to the game. Kam really matured after the Ft. Myers tourney. His shot selection was better, his defense improved a ton. If Jop can replicate what Kam did I think this is a Final 4 team.

Plus Kam showed that he could finish and we were treated to seeing him take free throws, something he avoided as a frosh.

If we see a similar step-up from Jop, or Ben, or possibly Chase I like our chances. I thought the player development last year was impressive, and have to surmise that Shaka was directing it. If he does it again it's going to be a lot of fun watching this squad.

[PointWarrior]

Why?

It's gonna ruin the season vibe...

[Jay Bee]

Not only was OMax's 2fg% excellent, but he actually got to the line.

Bye bye offense

[PointWarrior]

Not only was OMax's 2fg% excellent, but he actually got to the line.

Bye bye offense

Back to scoring in the 50's?

[5DollarPitcher]

If you spend all your time worrying about the bees, you're never going to get a taste of honey.