Concerns about the 23-24 team

[panda]

Expected this pushback. I think this offense could be remembered similar to 2015 Wisconsin, 2018 Villanova, and 2021 Gonzaga. We were elite at the rim and even without O-Max most of that production is back. And O-Max was a mediocre three point shooter. Joplin taking those shots should start to improve our long range accuracy and I think Kam, Ross, & Gold can all improve on their 3PFG% from last year.

I think we have historically good upside offensively, and the only obstacle I see to what should be the best offense in the country and one of the best of the kenpom era would be if Purdue sees more improvement from their sophomores than we do.

I still think Kopek has a ton of growth opportunity from behind the arc. That will make us almost unstoppable to have Kolek, Jones and Joplin all serious threats behind the arc.

[tower912]

8. Were doomed no matter what good or bad happens.

We're doomed.   And who isn't these days?

[MuggsyB]

I still think Kopek has a ton of growth opportunity from behind the arc. That will make us almost unstoppable to have Kolek, Jones and Joplin all serious threats behind the arc.

Don't forget Ross and Stevie may improve too. 

[Shooter McGavin]

Expected this pushback. I think this offense could be remembered similar to 2015 Wisconsin, 2018 Villanova, and 2021 Gonzaga. We were elite at the rim and even without O-Max most of that production is back. And O-Max was a mediocre three point shooter. Joplin taking those shots should start to improve our long range accuracy and I think Kam, Ross, & Gold can all improve on their 3PFG% from last year.

I think we have historically good upside offensively, and the only obstacle I see to what should be the best offense in the country and one of the best of the kenpom era would be if Purdue sees more improvement from their sophomores than we do.

I like it Brew!  And I like Goose's thinking we will play faster.  This season can't start fast enough. 

[Jay Bee]

eFG% declines as does our record. Oh well. We'll still make the tourney.

[Shooter McGavin]

eFG% declines as does our record. Oh well. We'll still make the tourney.

JayBee, in your opinion, will the team do damage in the tournament? Or crap shoot?

I think most think the record won't be the same as last year but the experience and depth will allow the team to go further in the tournament.   

[panda]

Second thought - my biggest concern for this team is the schedule. Non con will be a big challenge and the BE is going to be much, much more difficult this year than in previous seasons. The only truly bad team is Butler. Otherwise the bottom half of the league will all be at a minimum, very tough outs.

[PointWarrior]

Come on Goose - too many unknowns? - they return 4/5 starters and 9 of the top 10 players and Shaka.   I can see last year saying too many unknowns, but this year?    I know you loved OMax, but it's gonna be alright..

The unknowns are the individual improvements in the off-season - Joplin, Chase, Gold in particular.  This is all upside.

I said it earlier this summer, but I really do not have a great feel on this team going into the season. I think they have a chance to be very, very good, but too many unknowns for me at the moment. I think we will see some twists on defense and that will be the key to success. With the number of athletic guards/players on the team I think they are going to play faster on defense than the previous two years.

[Goose]

Point


I am just saying I am not sure what my concerns would be at this time. I think they are going to be very good and be fun to watch. My not having a real big concern is a positive, not a negative.

[Milkshakes]

Live streams

Well played.

[bilsu]

My concern is the luck factor. I think we have a good chance to be better this year, but we may notwin 29 games.
Last year luck factors, which we cannot count on this year.
1. Staying away from injuries
2. Prosper tipping in game winner against Xavier
3. Xavier key player getting hurt.
4. Providence starter not playing against us.
5. Kalkenbrenner recovering from illness in our first game.
6. St. John's missing last shot in Big East tournament against us.
7. Uconn missing last shot in big East tournament against us.

The luck factor last year ran out on us, when Kolek hurt his thumb in NCCAA first round game.

[muwarrior69]

Let's see if the team can rebound from the OMax breakup.

[Dr. Blackheart]

Let's see if the team can rebound from the OMax breakup.

Rebounding couldn't be much worse.

[PGsHeroes32]

My concern is the luck factor. I think we have a good chance to be better this year, but we may notwin 29 games.
Last year luck factors, which we cannot count on this year.
1. Staying away from injuries
2. Prosper tipping in game winner against Xavier
3. Xavier key player getting hurt.
4. Providence starter not playing against us.
5. Kalkenbrenner recovering from illness in our first game.
6. St. John's missing last shot in Big East tournament against us.
7. Uconn missing last shot in big East tournament against us.

The luck factor last year ran out on us, when Kolek hurt his thumb in NCCAA first round game.

In what world was that lucky?? We played extremely good D and they launched a prayer that had 0 chance to go in Kam started celebrating the moment it left his hand. Luck??

We beat Creighton in Creighton with Kalky. Boat raced them without. Luck??

How about the luck factor of our loss vs Providence having a 30 free throw disparity at home and beating us by 4 in 2 OT with multiple guys fouled out? Or the luck factor of TK injurying his thumb for the biggest games of the year.

Or the luck factor of losing every game except at Uconn in games that went to the final minutes/OT.

Yeah this team didnt win games on luck. We were fortunate to not have any injuries until tourney time TK. Thats about the only "luck" we benefitted from.

[lawdog77]

Rebounding couldn't be much worse.

Our block% will surely go up

[TSmith34, Inc.]

TKO has to be healthy or, like everything else, MU is doomed.

TKO's thumb is to Dom's foot...

[PointWarrior]

Sorry Goose - Mis-interpreted your post.

Point


I am just saying I am not sure what my concerns would be at this time. I think they are going to be very good and be fun to watch. My not having a real big concern is a positive, not a negative.

[Vander Blue Man Group]

I said it earlier this summer, but I really do not have a great feel on this team going into the season. I think they have a chance to be very, very good, but too many unknowns for me at the moment. I think we will see some twists on defense and that will be the key to success. With the number of athletic guards/players on the team I think they are going to play faster on defense than the previous two years.

Nevermind - saw your explanation above.

[brewcity77]

My concern is the luck factor. I think we have a good chance to be better this year, but we may notwin 29 games.
Last year luck factors, which we cannot count on this year.
1. Staying away from injuries
2. Prosper tipping in game winner against Xavier
3. Xavier key player getting hurt.
4. Providence starter not playing against us.
5. Kalkenbrenner recovering from illness in our first game.
6. St. John's missing last shot in Big East tournament against us.
7. Uconn missing last shot in big East tournament against us.

The luck factor last year ran out on us, when Kolek hurt his thumb in NCCAA first round game.

You can play that the other way though too.

1) Chase misses 3 shots on one possession to turn the tide against Purdue.
2) Chucky Hepburn's miracle 3 to force OT (and honestly his whole game).
3) Had Providence game won before a collapse in the last 5 minutes.
4) Kolek's injury was the reason we lost to MSU. If he is healthy, we're playing UConn on a Monday in April.

Did things go right? Sure. But things also went wrong that prevented us from going in to the tournament 31-3 and the overall top seed.

[withoutbias]

Lack of engagement from the fans because the marketing group sucks.

[We R Final Four]

You can play that the other way though too.

1) Chase misses 3 shots on one possession to turn the tide against Purdue.
2) Chucky Hepburn's miracle 3 to force OT (and honestly his whole game).
3) Had Providence game won before a collapse in the last 5 minutes.
4) Kolek's injury was the reason we lost to MSU. If he is healthy, we're playing UConn on a Monday in April.

Did things go right? Sure. But things also went wrong that prevented us from going in to the tournament 31-3 and the overall top seed.

5) And we beat UConn 2 out if 3 so why stop at PLAYING on Monday night? Why nit proclaim we would have win a natty??!!

Love the enthusiasm Brew....for last year and this year. 29 wins was unbelievable....our offense was unbelievable......will it be better?
Better than last season??? And you say yes.
Odds are against that claim.

[DoctorV]

Concerns:

1) health- Osasere Ighodaro.
2) health- TyKo, very close second.
Gap
3) health- Kam.
Big Gap
4) Regression
Big Gap
5) Shaka in March

Like most of us, I'm extremely excited about this season.
It's a dream, and as a collective fanbase we have earned that dream.
Shaka, TyKo, Oso, Kam, and co have made this pending dream a possibility, now we just hope to see it become a reality.

So, concerns going into the season?
Not many beyond health. I sort of couple this with the "front court depth" concerns, because if this team is healthy in its main pieces it won't need any additional depth.

So, the health concerns go hand in hand.
Some would disagree, but I've got Oso as the biggest health piece because of the depth, or lack thereof, behind him. Then TyKo for obvious reasons and then Kam for less obvious.

That alone explains how good this team can be- your BEPoY isn't definitely considered your most important "health" piece going into the season. After all, we've got a lot more talent/depth in the 1-3 spots to cover a disaster.

Let's move on from health, because everyone will be healthy.
Up next, regression. Not very likely, but a lot of guys took a massive leap last season.
Let's say teams gameplan to shut down TyKo and the offense unravels, or Kam starts shooting 30% from 3 and can't get buckets at the hoop with ease, or Oso starts fouling and is unable to handle the post.
Again not likely, but there will always be a chance that someone takes a big step back, we just haven't really seen it from Shaka guys at MU yet.

Finally Shaka.
He's amazing, but just like the stigma of an amazing March coach followed him early in his career, so has the stigma of a quick March exit cat started to creep its head lately.

It'll be hard to match the regular season and conference tournament success of last year, but if MU doubles up on one or both then we will be truly blessed as fans.
If they don't, however, March will rule king in a season with such expectations as this.

Trip to the final 4 will rid of all the doubts.
Let's go.

[brewcity77]

5) And we beat UConn 2 out if 3 so why stop at PLAYING on Monday night? Why nit proclaim we would have win a natty??!!

Love the enthusiasm Brew....for last year and this year. 29 wins was unbelievable....our offense was unbelievable......will it be better?
Better than last season??? And you say yes.
Odds are against that claim.

Not really. Marquette still returns 83.9% of their volume scoring. When I dug into volume scoring numbers last year, the only place where all the teams showed the same trend was 0-19% of points lost. Those teams had a minimum 11 spot rank improvement in offensive efficiency and average improvement of 63.5.

Clearly the 7th ranked offense can't improve by double digits in rank, but the one constant I found was teams returning the vast majority of their scoring improved significantly in efficiency.

[Jay Bee]

Not really. Marquette still returns 83.9% of their volume scoring. When I dug into volume scoring numbers last year, the only place where all the teams showed the same trend was 0-19% of points lost. Those teams had a minimum 11 spot rank improvement in offensive efficiency and average improvement of 63.5.

Clearly the 7th ranked offense can't improve by double digits in rank, but the one constant I found was teams returning the vast majority of their scoring improved significantly in efficiency.

I know we differ here, and it doesn't mean off eff can't improve even with my projection, but I project eFG% to decline from this past season, making a jump in off eff all the more challenging.

[tower912]

Why do you project the offense to be less efficient?   Was last year an outlier?   Less optimistic about incremental improvement?   Does Joplin's likely increased offensive role project to make the offense more 3 heavy and therefore less efficient?  A regression to mean at the rim?