2024 NCAA Tournament Bracketology

[HowardsWorld]

You continue to get this backwards no matter how many times it's explained to you, MU games do not occur in a vacuum.  There's a chance that 4-0 would put us there, but it is not a "at a minimum" situation.  For example (again), if Tenn also goes 4-0 they would remain ahead of us.

It's also incredibly foolish IMO to talk about hypotheticals where you assume we go undefeated and also assume that other top teams will lose. Of course if we win out, and UNC/AZ rack up losses we'll jump them.

I understand perfectly how this works. And yes me saying we go 4-0 assumes that others wont. What people are failing to understand is that Arizona and North Carolina can only hurt their resumes moving forward. Tennessee is the only team imo as I have stated 10 times in the last week that has a chance to overtake our spot if we win out. Tennessee is not winning out given their schedule which is why I'm writing this the way that I am. Obviously marquette could go 0-4 and every other team could go 4-0, but im writing with what I believe will happen. 

[Its DJOver]

I understand perfectly how this works. And yes me saying we go 4-0 assumes that others wont. What people are failing to understand is that Arizona and North Carolina can only hurt their resumes moving forward. Tennessee is the only team imo as I have stated 10 times in the last week that has a chance to overtake our spot if we win out. Tennessee is not winning out given their schedule which is why I'm writing this the way that I am. Obviously marquette could go 0-4 and every other team could go 4-0, but im writing with what I believe will happen.

You clearly don't since you are again mixing hypotheticals with facts. 

[FairWeatherEagle]

HowardsWorld you are right....DJOver you are also right.   "He's right and he's right they can't both be right.....you know you are also right!". 😁

[Efficient Frontier]

I was surprised to see Wisconsin as a 5 seed in the latest bracketology. No wins against ranked opponents (Marquette excluded.... Motherf****er), and losses to Michigan, Indiana, Penn State...

I was expecting them to be closer to the bubble.

[Uncle Rico]

I was surprised to see Wisconsin as a 5 seed in the latest bracketology. No wins against ranked opponents (Marquette excluded.... Motherf****er), and losses to Michigan, Indiana, Penn State...

I was expecting them to be closer to the bubble.

Need to get to 68 teams somehow and if you read scoop, everybody sucks

[Its DJOver]

When the preliminary reveal came out, we were 7th on the S-curve, that means we need to pass all of AZ, UNC, and Tenn.  Since the reveal, UNC and Tenn are undefeated with UNC adding 1 Q1 and 2 Q2 wins, and Tenn adding a Q4, Q3, and Q2 win.  AZ added a Q3 and Q2 win and picked up a Q2 loss.  We picked up a Q1 loss, a Q4 win and a Q2 win. The only one that we've potentially made up any ground on would be AZ. 

Further, as the committee showed by placing UNC 5th as well as our getting a 2 seed last year, conference regular season titles and conference tournament titles matter. We do not control our own destiny in the conference regular season.  UNC, AZ and Tenn do.

Our schedule to close the regular season consists of 3 Q1 games and a Q2 game. UNC finished with 2 Q3 and a Q1. Tenn finishes with 4 Q1 games. Given that we were behind both at the reveal and have since lost while they are both still undefeated we absolutely do not control our own destiny to get a 1 seed making this

If we go 4-0 to close the year they are going to be at minimum the final 1 seed heading into the conference tournament.

false.

Even with a weak Pac 12 AZ closes with 4 Q2 games.  Losses there would hurt and leave the door open for us to pass them, but if they run the table to close out the regular season I would speculate that we'd still be behind them too.

The good news is that since the reveal I would argue that we've put more ground between us as Kansas with their loss last night, although they have picked up a Q1 win since the reveal.  That would mean that if any of the current 3's get really hot over the next few weeks (Bama still controls their own destiny for the SEC regular season), Kansas would be the more likely to get bumped to a 3 at this point.

[StillAWarrior]

When the preliminary reveal came out, we were 7th on the S-curve, that means we need to pass all of AZ, UNC, and Tenn.  Since the reveal, UNC and Tenn are undefeated with UNC adding 1 Q1 and 2 Q2 wins, and Tenn adding a Q4, Q3, and Q2 win.  AZ added a Q3 and Q2 win and picked up a Q2 loss.  We picked up a Q1 loss, a Q4 win and a Q2 win. The only one that we've potentially made up any ground on would be AZ. 

Further, as the committee showed by placing UNC 5th as well as our getting a 2 seed last year, conference regular season titles and conference tournament titles matter. We do not control our own destiny in the conference regular season.  UNC, AZ and Tenn do.

Our schedule to close the regular season consists of 3 Q1 games and a Q2 game. UNC finished with 2 Q3 and a Q1. Tenn finishes with 4 Q1 games. Given that we were behind both at the reveal and have since lost while they are both still undefeated we absolutely do not control our own destiny to get a 1 seed making this

false.

Even with a weak Pac 12 AZ closes with 4 Q2 games.  Losses there would hurt and leave the door open for us to pass them, but if they run the table to close out the regular season I would speculate that we'd still be behind them too.

The good news is that since the reveal I would argue that we've put more ground between us as Kansas with their loss last night, although they have picked up a Q1 win since the reveal.  That would mean that if any of the current 3's get really hot over the next few weeks (Bama still controls their own destiny for the SEC regular season), Kansas would be the more likely to get bumped to a 3 at this point.

It's this kind of analysis that I point to when I justify the cost of my Scoop subscription. Good stuff.

[Vander Blue Man Group]

When the preliminary reveal came out, we were 7th on the S-curve, that means we need to pass all of AZ, UNC, and Tenn.  Since the reveal, UNC and Tenn are undefeated with UNC adding 1 Q1 and 2 Q2 wins, and Tenn adding a Q4, Q3, and Q2 win.  AZ added a Q3 and Q2 win and picked up a Q2 loss.  We picked up a Q1 loss, a Q4 win and a Q2 win. The only one that we've potentially made up any ground on would be AZ. 

Further, as the committee showed by placing UNC 5th as well as our getting a 2 seed last year, conference regular season titles and conference tournament titles matter. We do not control our own destiny in the conference regular season.  UNC, AZ and Tenn do.

Our schedule to close the regular season consists of 3 Q1 games and a Q2 game. UNC finished with 2 Q3 and a Q1. Tenn finishes with 4 Q1 games. Given that we were behind both at the reveal and have since lost while they are both still undefeated we absolutely do not control our own destiny to get a 1 seed making this

false.

Even with a weak Pac 12 AZ closes with 4 Q2 games.  Losses there would hurt and leave the door open for us to pass them, but if they run the table to close out the regular season I would speculate that we'd still be behind them too.

The good news is that since the reveal I would argue that we've put more ground between us as Kansas with their loss last night, although they have picked up a Q1 win since the reveal.  That would mean that if any of the current 3's get really hot over the next few weeks (Bama still controls their own destiny for the SEC regular season), Kansas would be the more likely to get bumped to a 3 at this point.

There was some thought that the seeds for the reveal were already complete before UNC lost to GT. 

[Its DJOver]

There was some thought that the seeds for the reveal were already complete before UNC lost to GT.

Do you mean Syracuse? UNC lost to GT on Jan 30, the reveal came out on Feb 17th.

[Dr. Blackheart]

Do you mean Syracuse? UNC lost to GT on Jan 30, the reveal came out on Feb 17th.

Georgia Tech

[Its DJOver]

Georgia Tech

Yes. UNC lost to Georgia Tech... on January 30th. Well before the reveal and was no doubt included. 

They also lost to Syracuse on February 13th.  4 days before the reveal.  That is the result that may be in question regarding if it was included in the reveal or not. 

I guess, unless we get a definitive answer from the committee (which we won't), I'm just basing things off of events before the actual reveal and after, otherwise the speculation becomes a lot more difficult.  Did they include our Q1 win @Butler on Feb 13?  Did they include Kansas' loss to Texas Tech on the 12th? IDK for sure, so I'm just assuming that they did.

[MU82]

If we win the rest of our games through April 8, there is a 100% chance that we're the national champions.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

If we win the rest of our games through April 8, there is a 100% chance that we're the national champions.

To be fair if we go 0-5 and then win 100% of our games after that there would also be a 100% chance that we're national champions.

[MU82]

To be fair if we go 0-5 and then win 100% of our games after that there would also be a 100% chance that we're national champions.

Both are true! Ball-knowers unite!!

[TallTitan34]

To be fair if we go 0-5 and then win 100% of our games after that there would also be a 100% chance that we're national champions.

[FairWeatherEagle]

If we win the rest of our games through April 8, there is a 100% chance that we're the national champions.

The chance of us winning April 8th is about as likely as the Sun getting blotted out of the sky that same day!

[rocky_warrior]

The chance of us winning April 8th is about as likely as the Sun getting blotted out of the sky that same day!

It's only a partial eclipse in Glendale

[HowardsWorld]

Marquette wins, Tennessee wins, Arizona wins. Tennessee most likely moved up to the 1 line after last nights win. They have 3 more tough games to close the season. I think that we are in a good place regardless of seed now. If Tennessee takes the 1 seed out west, more than likely Arizona will be that number 2 out there. They will be the 2 out there regardless of the 1 seed imo. That means Marquette would go to Indy now instead of Texas.

It seemed like the consensus was Tennessee slotted higher that Marquette was forcing them to Dallas in Houston's Region. If Tennessee gets the 1 seed it would open up the 2 in Purdue's region.

[Juan Anderson's Mixtape]

Marquette wins, Tennessee wins, Arizona wins. Tennessee most likely moved up to the 1 line after last nights win. They have 3 more tough games to close the season. I think that we are in a good place regardless of seed now. If Tennessee takes the 1 seed out west, more than likely Arizona will be that number 2 out there. They will be the 2 out there regardless of the 1 seed imo. That means Marquette would go to Indy now instead of Texas.

It seemed like the consensus was Tennessee slotted higher that Marquette was forcing them to Dallas in Houston's Region. If Tennessee gets the 1 seed it would open up the 2 in Purdue's region.

The problem remains that the Big 12 will have a 2 seed (Kansas/Iowa St) that can't be placed in the South with Houston.  Here's an example:

4. Tennessee 1 West
5. UNC 2 East
6. Arizona 2 West
7. Marquette 2 South
8. Kansas/Iowa St 2 Midwest

Marquette would have a better chance at the Midwest if UNC gets the last 1 seed and Tennessee is the top 2 seed.  Then this scenario would play out:

4. UNC 1 West
5. Tennessee 2 South
6. Arizona 2 West
7. Kansas/Iowa State 2 East
8. Marquette 2 Midwest

[HowardsWorld]

The problem remains that the Big 12 will have a 2 seed (Kansas/Iowa St) that can't be placed in the South with Houston.  Here's an example:

4. Tennessee 1 West
5. UNC 2 East
6. Arizona 2 West
7. Marquette 2 South
8. Kansas/Iowa St 2 Midwest

Marquette would have a better chance at the Midwest if UNC gets the last 1 seed and Tennessee is the top 2 seed.  Then this scenario would play out:

4. UNC 1 West
5. Tennessee 2 South
6. Arizona 2 West
7. Kansas/Iowa State 2 East
8. Marquette 2 Midwest

I thought the rule was that if a conference team played 3x it could not be in the same bracket unless they were to meet no earlier than in the regional final. If what you are saying is true which im sure it is then yes it gets tricky.

[lawdog77]

I believe this is the rule:
Teams are spread out according to conference. The first three teams within the top 4 seeded lines selected from each conference must be placed in different regions  When a conference has more than three teams in the tournament, the committee tries to seed the teams so that they cannot meet until the regional final.

[Juan Anderson's Mixtape]

I believe this is the rule:
Teams are spread out according to conference. The first three teams within the top 4 seeded lines selected from each conference must be placed in different regions  When a conference has more than three teams in the tournament, the committee tries to seed the teams so that they cannot meet until the regional final.

Correct.

[Vander Blue Man Group]

Do you mean Syracuse? UNC lost to GT on Jan 30, the reveal came out on Feb 17th.

Yeah, I meant Syracuse.  My fault. 

[WhiteTrash]

According to BPI, MU has the 2nd hardest remaining SOS in D1.
Kansas 8th, Tenn. 9th, Duke 34th, UNC 75th, AZ 77th.

[tower912]

Who has it tougher?