2024 NCAA Tournament Bracketology

[1SE]

Bracket matrix vs poll discrepancy really interesting right now - MU isn't #1 in a single bracket and PU, UCONN, UH all consensus 1s with AZ a 1 in all but a handful.

Really don't get the AZ love. @Duke, vs. WI and n. Alabama are solid wins, but nowhere near elite and nowhere near wins @ILL, vs. Creighton and n. KU. And two of their losses are head and shoulders worse than our worst loss. I get the computers like them a bit better for some reason, but how do bracketologists look at those two profiles and overwhelmingly put AZ ahead of us?

[FairWeatherEagle]

Maybe I'm looking in the wrong spot, but I only see 3 Q1's and now going to be 3-3 in Q1 games.

Sorry you misunderstood... Was saying 6 Q1s left on schedule with a current 3-2 (now 3-3). If they won those and with a deep SEC tourney 10+ Q1s.

What can I say, I'm an irrational SC fan from way back. I hope MU and SC are not in the same region as my bracket of integrity will of course have them meet in the final four 😁.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Bracket matrix vs poll discrepancy really interesting right now - MU isn't #1 in a single bracket and PU, UCONN, UH all consensus 1s with AZ a 1 in all but a handful.

Really don't get the AZ love. @Duke, vs. WI and n. Alabama are solid wins, but nowhere near elite and nowhere near wins @ILL, vs. Creighton and n. KU. And two of their losses are head and shoulders worse than our worst loss. I get the computers like them a bit better for some reason, but how do bracketologists look at those two profiles and overwhelmingly put AZ ahead of us?

Arizona has 7 Q1 wins to our 6. They also played the 2nd hardest non conference schedule (we were 23), committee tends to reward that.  They have a significantly higher NET than us.  Also using NET, their wins are just as impressive if not more than ours. For example Alabama on a neutral court is better than Kansas on a neutral court according to NET (5 vs 14). They have 4 Q1A wins to our 3. It would help if Creighton could move up 1 spot back to Q1a and Texas could move up 1 spot to Q1. Both of those things happening would give us an identical Q1 win profile to Zona.

All that being said,  i think we're the top 2 seed at the moment (bracketmatrix lags and we've narrowed the gap with every update). I also think that a win at UConn could be enough to jump Arizona.  That's the kind of win that gets you noticed

[HowardsWorld]

Bracket matrix vs poll discrepancy really interesting right now - MU isn't #1 in a single bracket and PU, UCONN, UH all consensus 1s with AZ a 1 in all but a handful.

Really don't get the AZ love. @Duke, vs. WI and n. Alabama are solid wins, but nowhere near elite and nowhere near wins @ILL, vs. Creighton and n. KU. And two of their losses are head and shoulders worse than our worst loss. I get the computers like them a bit better for some reason, but how do bracketologists look at those two profiles and overwhelmingly put AZ ahead of us?

I don't think anyone was saying that MU should be a number 1 right now. I said yesterday if they win at Uconn they will be moved up to the 1 line. That will be the single best road win for any team this season. Anyways in regards to Arizona they aren't dropping off the 2 line and will play out west, also were the last 1 seed currently isnt solidified meaning if Marquette grabs the last 1, Zona would be the 2 in that region. If zona grabs the 1, Marquette would more than likely be in Purdues Region.

[MUDPT]

Bracket question for the guys that know this stuff, what is the floor for seeding if MU goes 4-3 the rest of the way?

I ran it through TRank teamcast.  Currently, MU is projected as the 3rd 2 seed.  Going 4-3 (losing to UConn x2 and Creighton, also simmed the BE tournament- beat Providence, lost to Creighton), moved MU to the last two seed.

[Juan Anderson's Mixtape]

I don't think anyone was saying that MU should be a number 1 right now. I said yesterday if they win at Uconn they will be moved up to the 1 line. That will be the single best road win for any team this season. Anyways in regards to Arizona they aren't dropping off the 2 line and will play out west, also were the last 1 seed currently isnt solidified meaning if Marquette grabs the last 1, Zona would be the 2 in that region. If zona grabs the 1, Marquette would more than likely be in Purdues Region.

If MU is the top 2 seed,  they can't be placed with the top 1 seed (Purdue).  If MU ends up 7th on the S-Curve, Tennessee, UNC, Kansas, and Iowa State are all possibilities to be 6th and get the Midwest 2.

If MU is 6th overall, then the Midwest 2 is almost a certainty.

[The Sultan]

If MU is the top 2 seed,  they can't be placed with the top 1 seed (Purdue). 

Is this true?

[HowardsWorld]

Is this true?

I think this is where the scrubbing of the bracket comes in. I believe the committee would scrub so that Marquette would have a closer location.

[Shooter McGavin]

Is this true?

It would seem they would have earned it. Curious to see what the answer is.

[lawdog77]

Is this true?

Does anyone know if they value the true S curve or locality when it comes to seeding the top 16 seeds in terms of later matchups?

[Juan Anderson's Mixtape]

Is this true?

I believe this has been the case in the past, but reading through the current principles I can't find it.  So, perhaps I am incorrect.

[brewcity77]

Is this true?

Yes.

The overall #1 and the top 2-seed (#5 overall) cannot be placed in the same region.

[The Sultan]

Yes.

The overall #1 and the top 2-seed (#5 overall) cannot be placed in the same region.

Huh. Never knew that. Thanks.

[MarquetteDano]

All those rules and yet as a #2 seed we had a partial away game in our second game. I presume MSU was closer to Columbus than Marquette?

[TallTitan34]

All those rules and yet as a #2 seed we had a partial away game in our second game. I presume MSU was closer to Columbus than Marquette?

It could happen again with us meeting Indiana State or Kentucky in the second round in Indy.

[MDMU04]

All those rules and yet as a #2 seed we had a partial away game in our second game. I presume MSU was closer to Columbus than Marquette?

A lot of Sparty stuck around to cheer on Vermont during our first round game as well. We weren't done a lot of favors with that seeding.

[TallTitan34]

When we played Utah State in the first round in Boise in 2009, that was a very hostile crowd.

[Galway Eagle]

Considering we'll never play in Chicago or Milwaukee, as it's too close and home respectively, and Madison is too small to host I believe. It's fair to expect wherever we go will likely have a few teams closer even if we have a protected seed. Unless Chicago builds a southside stadium or Madison doubles in size it'll likely always be that way.

[Scoop Snoop]

When we played Utah State in the first round in Boise in 2009, that was a very hostile crowd.

Damn Mormons!

[TallTitan34]

Considering we'll never play in Chicago or Milwaukee, as it's too close and home respectively, and Madison is too small to host I believe. It's fair to expect wherever we go will likely have a few teams closer even if we have a protected seed. Unless Chicago builds a southside stadium or Madison doubles in size it'll likely always be that way.

There is nothing preventing us from playing in Chicago.

[Its DJOver]

Considering we'll never play in Chicago or Milwaukee, as it's too close and home respectively, and Madison is too small to host I believe. It's fair to expect wherever we go will likely have a few teams closer even if we have a protected seed. Unless Chicago builds a southside stadium or Madison doubles in size it'll likely always be that way.

Doesn't Madison never even try to get games because they need to keep the arena open for the High School State Tournaments?  I certainly think they have the infrastructure.

[PGsHeroes32]

https://twitter.com/SportsGrid/status/1758208602802639153

Really starting to appear that Shaka blocked Rothstein

[PGsHeroes32]

https://twitter.com/SportsGrid/status/1758208602802639153

Really starting to appear that Shaka blocked Rothstein

Nvm apologies to Rothstein. He's just promoting some stupid odds site

He actually has us a 1 with a win on Saturday.

[cheebs09]

Doesn't Madison never even try to get games because they need to keep the arena open for the High School State Tournaments?  I certainly think they have the infrastructure.

I think they've hosted before. I'm guessing between state tournaments and the fact they've been good enough to get good locations so wouldn't want to limit their spots, they don't have much interest.

[Galway Eagle]

There is nothing preventing us from playing in Chicago.

I'm fairly certain you can't play within 100miles of campus. Any arena worth its salt in Chicago is within 100miles.